Crikey



Griffith by-election live

The third and fourth placed results are from early in the life of the Bracks government in Victoria, when Labor pulled off rare victories in Jeff Kennett’s seat of Burwood in 1999 and Nationals leader Pat McNamara’s seat of Benalla in 2000. Also higher up the order than Griffith is the Elizabeth by-election of 1994, held four months after Dean Brown’s Liberal government came to power in South Australia. This may have indicated the popularity of outgoing member Martyn Evans, soon to be Labor’s federal member for Bonython, who had been designated as “independent Labor” for most of his ten years as a state member. Rob Borbidge’s Queensland government of 1996 to 1998 did less well, with the looming Liberal collapse in that state foreshadowed by swings to Labor in the Brisbane seats of Lytton and Kurwongbah.

All of this is laid out in the chart above, which ranks swings to the government (positive at the top, negative at the bottom) from the eight federal and eight state by-elections just discussed. Red and blue respectively indicate Labor and Coalition governments, the lighter shades representing state and the darker representing federal. Stats enthusiasts may care to know that the model y=10+44.3x explains 38% of the variability, where y is the government’s eventual longevity in office measured in years and x is the swing to the government across 15 observed by-elections. For what very little it may be worth, the positive 0.5% swing in Griffith associates with 10.3 years in government.

Saturday

#

%

Swing

2PP (proj.)

Swing

Timothy Lawrence (SPP)

570

0.8%

+0.7%

Geoff Ebbs (Greens)

6,890

10.2%

+0.3%

Christopher Williams (FFP)

651

1.0%

+0.3%

Karel Boele (IND)

458

0.7%

Anthony Ackroyd (BTA)

526

0.8%

Anne Reid (SPA)

379

0.6%

+0.1%

Terri Butler (Labor)

26,356

39.0%

-1.6%

52.5%

-0.5%

Melanie Thomas (PPA)

1,051

1.6%

Travis Windsor (Independent)

585

0.9%

Ron Sawyer (KAP)

694

1.0%

+0.4%

Bill Glasson (Liberal National)

29,456

43.6%

+0.9%

47.5%

+0.5%

FORMAL/TURNOUT

67,616

71.2%

Informal

2,093

3.0%

-1.8%

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Categories: Federal By-Elections, Federal Politics 2013-

517 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
  1. AEC have virtual tally room up

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17552-163.htm

    by ruawake on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:10 pm

  2. There is no obvious hospital booth, which usually report first, unless Greenslopes is at the former RGH Greenslopes.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:13 pm

  3. Quite a few reports of low turnout, but haven’t seen any quantified to say whether it is lower than a normal by-election.

    by Kevin Bonham on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:14 pm

  4. OC

    Woolloongabba West – Mater Hospital, Stanley St, SOUTH BRISBANE QLD 4101

    Is the nearest thing to a hospital booth, there are 4 special hospital booths all over the State.

    by ruawake on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:15 pm

  5. Will the pre-polls be reported tonight or has the c’wealth not changed to that system?

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:15 pm

  6. Oakeshott Country@5

    Will the pre-polls be reported tonight or has the c’wealth not changed to that system?

    Prepolls cast at within-electorate PPVCs were reported on the night at the federal election.

    by Kevin Bonham on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:17 pm

  7. Thanks KB and RU

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:18 pm

  8. and the counting starts

    https://twitter.com/ursulaheger/status/432065462445166593/photo/1

    by sprocket_ on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:22 pm

  9. Evening All

    Hoping for a big Labor win and a message to be sent to Abbott

    also

    A major upset, cheering for Finland to beat the USA in the women’s ice hockey

    So much to focus on :)

    by womble on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:23 pm

  10. Count ‘em. 2009 ballots at White’s Hill State School

    https://twitter.com/ursulaheger/status/432067455251263488/photo/1

    by sprocket_ on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:26 pm

  11. Womble @ 9 agree 100% but not sure about the ice hockey

    Hopefully a huge swing to Labor … !!!

    by Steven Grant Haby on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:27 pm

  12. Good luck Terri

    by Labour of Love on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:28 pm

  13. sprocket_@10

    Count ‘em. 2009 ballots at White’s Hill State School

    https://twitter.com/ursulaheger/status/432067455251263488/photo/1

    2090 in the tweet – which is actually more than the same booth at the general election.

    by Kevin Bonham on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:32 pm

  14. Just out of interest, is anyone tipping a Lib win?

    by Diogenes on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:33 pm

  15. Even the pessimistic staff of a Qld Senator who usually underestimate the ALP vote by 10% reckon Terri will win.

    by ruawake on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:33 pm

  16. Who else thinks Palmer has rocks in his head not to be contesting here or in Redcliffe?

    by Psephos on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:34 pm

  17. 2090 in the tweet – which is actually more than the same booth at the general election.

    The low turnout stories may have been people forgetting about absentee voters in a General election.

    by ruawake on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:34 pm

  18. Who else thinks Palmer has rocks in his head not to be contesting here or in Redcliffe?

    Not me, he did really badly in Griffith and does not want a running out of steam headline.

    by ruawake on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:36 pm

  19. Diog. Qlders can be a fickle lot. I dont know which way it will go but hoping like hell for an ALP victory!

    by Lynchpin on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:37 pm

  20. Not me, he did really badly in Griffith and does not want a running out of steam headline.

    If he can’t do well in by-elections in Queensland, he should get out of the game.

    by Psephos on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:39 pm

  21. KB, since you’re here, and shamelessly off topic while we wait for results, do you give Palmer any chance of winning seats in Tasmania?

    by Psephos on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:40 pm

  22. Psephos@21

    KB, since you’re here, and shamelessly off topic while we wait for results, do you give Palmer any chance of winning seats in Tasmania?

    I do give them a chance, much as they don’t deserve any.

    by Kevin Bonham on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:43 pm

  23. I don’t think we can draw any worthwhile conclusions from two small booths.

    by Darn on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:43 pm

  24. One would assume a comfortable victory for Butler/ALP with an increased 2PP majority.

    by Rex Douglas on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:45 pm

  25. I just want Labor to retain the seat. Not fussed about the margin.

    by confessions on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:47 pm

  26. Speaking of Tasmania PollBludger has once again forgotten to add a recent Reachtel poll result for the state onto it’s main page.

    by Coast on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:51 pm

  27. Kevin

    If you have time some info or opinion about the parliamentary career of Michael Polley retiring in Tasmania after 42 years would be appreciated

    by shellbell on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:51 pm

  28. Coast@26

    Speaking of Tasmania PollBludger has once again forgotten to add a recent Reachtel poll result for the state onto it’s main page.

    That was a Liberal-commissioned ReachTEL so I think they can be excused for that.

    by Kevin Bonham on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:53 pm

  29. Psephos
    Haven’t you heard? His polling shows a PUP majority in Tas

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:54 pm

  30. Yes KB, that was the rationale.

    by William Bowe on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:55 pm

  31. Anyone feeling a little nervous?

    by Lynchpin on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:56 pm

  32. I am!

    by Labour of Love on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:58 pm

  33. Anyone feeling a little nervous?

    Yes, I have a bid coming up on ebay in 5 mins!

    by mikehilliard on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:58 pm

  34. Glasson picking up PUP votes, from heavy PUP booths. He is toast.

    by ruawake on Feb 8, 2014 at 7:59 pm

  35. I like your confidence ru

    by Darn on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:00 pm

  36. Coast

    Speaking of Tasmania PollBludger has once again forgotten to add a recent Reachtel poll result for the state onto it’s main page.

    That would be the fish John West rejects.

    by Diogenes on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:00 pm

  37. shellbell@27

    Kevin

    If you have time some info or opinion about the parliamentary career of Michael Polley retiring in Tasmania after 42 years would be appreciated

    Excellent Speaker; good local member; great store of parliamentary wisdom; too socially conservative.

    by Kevin Bonham on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:03 pm

  38. What am I missing with the swing figures? They seem completely off to me here, at the AEC and at the ABC. Case in point: wasn’t the Green vote 10.18% last time?

    by Frickeg on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:03 pm

  39. Ru – hope you are right but i note no swing awY from the greens if that means anything?

    by Lynchpin on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:03 pm

  40. Thanks Kevin

    by shellbell on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:04 pm

  41. 5 in and Glasson still in front

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:04 pm

  42. 5% of the vote in and Glasson swing down to 1%

    by sprocket_ on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:05 pm

  43. William what % turnout would you expect to indicate a real trend?

    by Lynchpin on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:06 pm

  44. the fastest update on the vote is

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17552-163.htm

    they have 9 booths, 7,300 counted and Glasson down to 1% swing.

    by sprocket_ on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:06 pm

  45. I’m not nervous. It’s been a big day here handing out in West End. I’d say from the mood we smashed the Tories at our booth. I also expect the greens vote to come up a bit on September.

    by Boinzo on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:07 pm

  46. Sprocket isnt the swing to Glasson 3.4%?

    by Lynchpin on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:08 pm

  47. 44

    Now 11 on primary, 3 on 2PP (both out of 44).

    by Tom the first and best on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:09 pm

  48. Gee, after 15% counted the Greens are up to 11.59% primary

    Kroger appears to be conceding on Sky

    by sprocket_ on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:14 pm

  49. Well FWIW ABC is reporting that the ‘mood’ in the Butler room is buoyant.

    by confessions on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:14 pm

  50. I think this is going to be bad for Labor… Abbott probably is already creaming… %%$$$#$

    by Steven Grant Haby on Feb 8, 2014 at 8:14 pm

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