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Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The first Newspoll for the year is slightly at the low end of Labor’s recent average, and shows a lot of the air going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon approval ratings.

UPDATE (Essential Research and Morgan): Essential Research is still at 50-50, although Labor has been up three points on the primary vote over the past fortnight, the most recent move being one point to 39%. The Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady at 43%, 8% and 3%. There are also personal ratings and further questions which you can read about at the bottom of the post. Morgan has the Labor lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52.5-47.5 to 51-49 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40.5%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens down one to 10.5% and Palmer United up 1.5% to 4.5%.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the final poll of last year, which was conducted from December 6-8. Labor has dropped three points on the primary vote to 35%, but the slack is taken up by the Greens, who are up three to 12%, with the Coalition up by one point to 41%. The results also support Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J in comments serves up the personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott perfectly unchanged at 40% approval and 45% disapproval, Bill Shorten respectively down nine to 35% and up eight to 35%, and preferred prime minister effectively unchanged at 41-33 in favour of Abbott, compared with 41-34 last time.

UPDATE 2: Dennis Shanahan’s report on the results for The Oz.

UPDATE 3: Questions on ABC bias produce similar results to the recent ReachTEL poll, with most considering its news “fair and balanced”, but Coalition supporters more likely to feel aggrieved than Labor ones. Eighteen per cent felt the ABC biased to Labor versus 7% biased against, which naturally enough produced a mirror image when the question was framed in terms of Coalition bias (7% biased in favour, 19% biased against). Results for the Greens were hardly different than for Labor, with 15% thinking it biased in favour, 8% biased against, and 48% balanced. Tables showing breakdowns by party support here.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings have both leaders heading south, with Tony Abbott down six on approval to 41% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten down five to 30% and up two to 34%. Better prime minister is little changed at 40-30 in favour of Abbott, compared with 42-31 a month ago. As is usually the case when a party’s position improves in the polls, Labor has improved across the board on the question of party most trusted to handle various issues, the biggest changes being a drop in the deficit on “political leadership” from 23% to 13% and economic management from 26% to 19%. A question on various types of industry assistance finds strong support for drought relief, private health rebates and tourism development grants, but strong opposition to fuel rebates for the mining industry. Interestingly, automotive production subsidies score a net rating of minus 11%.

1892
  • 101
    Everything
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    Darn
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:54 pm | PERMALINK
    51-49 to Labor still represents a massive loss of Liberal seats if an election were held now – a 4.5% swing away from the government.

    At the actual election held recently, notwithstanding the constant self-reassurance of posters here telling each other that Abbott and Newman were poisonous, the swing was TOWARDS the government. A finding which has been confirmed by the current Newspoll.

    If a Federal election was held on Saturday, along with the Griffith by-election, I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever, Abbott would have been reelected.

  • 102
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/99

    How is targeting Disability Pensioners not austerity?

    & how is working in the Car Industry classed as middle-class welfare?

  • 103
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Mod, you’ve expressed concern over the growing inequality in our society, where exactly do you think the drive to halt (or even reverse) that trend will come from?

  • 104
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Re #8 – surprised a Tory here has the nerve or the stupidity to mention cars of any sort tonight.

  • 105
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    vic

    If it’s any consolation, Abbott reminds me of the protagonist in Goldings’ The Spire.

    He’s trying to build a monument to himself on a lack of foundation.

    You know, like a pre-school kiddie who creates a fantabulous lego building that rests on the side of one block, Abbott’s artificial edifice will collapse under its own weight.

    He can’t control everything. Who’s just as likely to turn on him as anyone else.

  • 106
    daretotread
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    Everything

    Well you Libs should be safe from the evil unionists soon. There won’t be any jobs so there will not be unions. Mind you there will not be any small business owners either because there will be no customers.

  • 107
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    Here’s my beef with Shorten: he’s not relatable. I don’t feel like he’s a friend or tells a story about himself, the nation and where it’s going. Abbott has the same problem. Gillard had the same problem. It’s all boring, bitter and negative.

    You compare that to Albo: he’s humble, he’s got a story about his upbringing is relatable. In short: he cares! You can feel it.

    Maybe it’s just me but with Shorten I feel nothing. The only thing keeping me going is Abbott wrecking the country and the desire to return things to some sort of normality at this point. If it was just Shorten, I’d be completely zoned out,

  • 108
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:58 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/99

    How is targeting Disability Pensioners not austerity?

    Ensuring everyone on the DSP has a disability preventing them from working is good government, not austerity.

    & how is working in the Car Industry classed as middle-class welfare?

    Working in the Car Industry is not classed as middle-class welfare. Who said it was, I let them have it with both barrels! :devil:

    Handing out money to car manufacturers so that they can pocket it and piss off anyway as they can’t see a profitable future in this country is middle class welfare though.

  • 109
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    The personal story stuff aside, what story does Albanese tell us about the nation and where it’s going?

  • 110
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Mod

    Ensuring everyone on the DSP has a disability preventing them from working is good government, not austerity.

    What’s your evidence that governance was not already good?

  • 111
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Kevin @100

    Thanks for providing that data. It will go down but in general, where Abbott goes, the government goes … And given he wasn’t popular to begin with and what’s happening in the economic environment, I expect him to fall through the floor.

  • 112
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    daretotread
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:00 am | PERMALINK
    Everything

    Well you Libs should be safe from the evil unionists soon. There won’t be any jobs so there will not be unions. Mind you there will not be any small business owners either because there will be no customers.

    There won’t be any jobs?

    A little melodramatic, don’t you think?

    The current Australian workforce is more than 11.5 million.

    The three car makers leaving is taking away less than 11.5 thousand jobs.

    That is one in a thousand jobs.

    Also, it is not that those jobs are gone and never to return. Its just that the jobs change into other jobs. Ones that actually produce things that have a sustainable market.

  • 113
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Everything

    Where is the policy to create pathways to employment for people on DSP.

    Sure many can work but where is the pathway policies.

  • 114
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/108

    Your a sad case, you do realize that Kevin Andrews is forcing people OFF DSP and ONTO Newstart, increasing more unemployment levels, that apparently we can find jobs in, but due to the Abbott Government actions more people will be on Newstart.

    You are making the car industry not profitable by allowing imports of cars (again the reliance on imports is sometimes a bad thing when you are importing Fuel, Gas etc).

    Thus jobs go out the window.

  • 115
    daretotread
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Spur

    Think I agree with you. I am not keen to dump on Shorten – he is new to the job, however these days Leaders do not have the luxury of a long learning curve.

    I suspect he needs to show a bit of passion.

  • 116
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    What’s your evidence that governance was not already good?

    Well, personal experience for starters. However, I have no courtroom admissible evidence.

    If there is no problem, what is the problem with examining the sector? DSP is a cohort which currently has more people in it than the unemployment cohort.

  • 117
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/112

    How many jobs available nation wide, currently?

  • 118
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    O dear Moddy might that have anything to do with the state of the economy being good for people with skills and experience

  • 119
    geoffrey
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    johncanb
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:07 pm | PERMALINK
    Psephos made a comment to the effect that the lower than expected vote for Labor in Griffith was partly the result of all the fuss in the media about the ABC reporting on asylum seekers. I think he might be right. And it’s not the rights or wrongs of the ABC reporting that matters to most people. Its more noise about asylum seekers and many people are heartily sick of both the asylum seeker issue and asylum seekers, and whenever the issue is raised they think badly of Labor and somewhat positively of the coalition.
    So if the ABC was actually biassed towards Labor, they would avoid all mention of the asylum seeker issue, because that would improve the Labor vote.

    ——i think it was quite a good result considering rudd broke his word, massive spend by libs etc etc. quite good

  • 120
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    Sure many can work but where is the pathway policies.

    I agree with you, that is where we should focus attention. There are lots of reasons, economic and psychological, why it is better for subsidised work than a DSP.

  • 121
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    According to Seek there is 115,010 jobs currently available.

  • 122
    Darn
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Everything
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:57 pm | Permalink
    Darn
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:54 pm | PERMALINK
    51-49 to Labor still represents a massive loss of Liberal seats if an election were held now – a 4.5% swing away from the government.

    At the actual election held recently, notwithstanding the constant self-reassurance of posters here telling each other that Abbott and Newman were poisonous, the swing was TOWARDS the government. A finding which has been confirmed by the current Newspoll.

    If a Federal election was held on Saturday, along with the Griffith by-election, I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever, Abbott would have been reelected.

    That was one seat ML, with a lot of local implications. This is a national poll, which shows a very large swing away from the government since polling day.

    In any event, I didn’t say the government would lose, I said on these figures they would lose a massive number of seats.

  • 123
    geoffrey
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:00 am | PERMALINK
    Here’s my beef with Shorten: he’s not relatable. I don’t feel like he’s a friend or tells a story about himself, the nation and where it’s going. Abbott has the same problem. Gillard had the same problem. It’s all boring, bitter and negative.

    You compare that to Albo: he’s humble, he’s got a story about his upbringing is relatable. In short: he cares! You can feel it.

    Maybe it’s just me but with Shorten I feel nothing. The only thing keeping me going is Abbott wrecking the country and the desire to return things to some sort of normality at this point. If it was just Shorten, I’d be completely zoned out,

    ——shorten is a squid only asset he is small target – very little going for him. can he speak in parliament. anyone can interview like him. we need a new left

  • 124
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    Display Name

    Probably should rephrase that a little, he hits the values stuff e.g social justice, equality far better than Shorten. That’s not to say Shorten can’t do it. His problem is more that he can’t relate emotionally … And the bigger problem is if he does try to relate emotionally, it will probably come off as wooden. That’s really not good. It’s why if I were advising him, I’d be telling him to focus on the words “job security” over and over again as Abbott’s left that open for him now

  • 125
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/120

    You mean slave labour working for near zilth?

  • 126
    kezza2
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:00 am | PERMALINK
    Here’s my beef with Shorten: he’s not relatable. I don’t feel like he’s a friend or tells a story about himself, the nation and where it’s going. Abbott has the same problem. Gillard had the same problem. It’s all boring, bitter and negative.

    You compare that to Albo: he’s humble, he’s got a story about his upbringing is relatable. In short: he cares! You can feel it.

    Maybe it’s just me but with Shorten I feel nothing. The only thing keeping me going is Abbott wrecking the country and the desire to return things to some sort of normality at this point. If it was just Shorten, I’d be completely zoned out,

    Ah, faaark, you’re never happy, are ya.

    You wanted Rudd back, you got him. He screwed up – mostly because he looked like an overfed, undisciplined usurper – especially after a few years of white-anting.

    So, you got rid of Gillard – the fucking anti-Christ – Rudd saved his own seat, and it’s now been saved by Butler, just.

    But, now, for you, Shorten’s not good enough. He’s not this, he’s not that, he’s not relatatble. FFS. He’s got manboobs a la Latham – who the fuck do you want?

    Oh, okay, now you want Albo.

    What if he didn’t measure up to your exacting standards. Who would you be crying for next.

    You spent most of Gillard’s term undermining her. Screaming blue murder. Get rid of her.

    And now you’re still not happy.

    You know what, spur212, piss off.

  • 127
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Zoidy i know someone on DSP that held a job for a period of time on over 50k so it is possible for them to obtain a good job.

  • 128
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    DN:

    Too tired to go into too much detail about the inequity issue, but I do have some ideas/unfounded thought bubbles on this issue! I would increase the minimum wage, set a minimum tax threshold (so you cannot decrease your income tax lower than some predetermined level- 20%, 25% whatever, same with company tax). I would have a law that nobody in a company can earn more than 28 times the lowest income in that company, pro rata. I would set a 10 year path to ever increasing ciggy taxes, and spend the money on subsidised smoking cessation programs. I would tax alcoholic beverages based on the alcoholic content so you can’t get sloshed on cheap stosh. I would break the union stranglehold on education, and run them more like private institutions, where the sloppy inefficient processes would never be allowed to continue. Then in 20 years or so, we would have a better educated, healthier population that might make smart stuff, like computers, or programs, or a new device part way between a big phone and a small iPad, as, God knows, there is a gap in that market (!). Public transport should be cheaper and using cars more expensive……etc etc etc

  • 129
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:09 am | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/120

    You mean slave labour working for near zilch?

    No.

  • 130
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    @MB/127

    Probably lucky to not be randomly checked by Centerlink, which happens every two years.

    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/enablers/centrelink/disability-support-pension/eligibility

    “You may receive Disability Support Pension if you have a physical, intellectual, or psychiatric condition that stops you from working or being retrained for work within the next two years or if you are permanently blind and meet the eligibility requirements.”

  • 131
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    Zoidy

    No Centrelink knew, the person lost the payment once a certain number of hours were worked then when the position ended which was less than two years and considering the disability remained the person returned to being on DSP.

  • 132
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    There is no reason why a blind person cannot work.

  • 133
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    Galaxy Poll on Qld state politics

    2PP: LNP 53 ALP 47

    Primary Vote LNP 41 (-4)

    Unbelievable!!!!!

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/galaxy-poll-bikie-crackdown-could-cost-campbell-newmans-lnp-30-seats-in-queensland-parliament/story-fnihsrf2-1226822990768

  • 134
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    spur, fair enough. Albanese does appear easier to relate to.

  • 135
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    Everything

    I use to work with a blind lady, she was in the call centre, she used a braille keyboard and had a guide dog, a real passive lovely dog who would sit in the busy call centre and never bark.

  • 136
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    @MB/131

    The problem is it’s not a safety net, Centerlink can and does put people on Newstart, and you have to go through the whole tribunal etc.

  • 137
    Darn
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    Kevin or William

    Are you able to tell me how many elections the coalition have won when their pv on polling day was 41% or less?

  • 138
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    mexicanbeemer.

    Bingo!

  • 139
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    Zoidy true its regularly reviewed but in many cases its fairly straightforward.

  • 140
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/132

    The problem is how good the work place is, and how much funds can Centerlink set aside to support the person working.

    It costs more money, time, and effort to retrain a disabled person than a normal person.

  • 141
    daretotread
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    Everything

    I find the sort of twaddle about “other jobs” the parrot speak of those who have done economics AO1, but thought little. It is narrow minded and superficial.

    Let us grasp the reality. A country (and its people) has wealth based on:

    1. What it grows ie what it grows for its own consumption plus the surplus it can sell to others for imported goods and services.

    2. What it digs up and sells to others

    3. What makes using its own or imported materials. This can be consumed locally or sold overseas..

    4. A smattering of services sold overseas, including education, research, tourism.

    Now ONLY jobs in these four sectors are actually wealth creating. All other jobs are simply methods of redistributing income but do not add to the net wealth of the nation. If a manufacturing business dies it is stupidity for people to parrot that they will find jobs in health or aged care. Individuals may find jobs but as a nation jobs which service ourselves are not wealth generating and untimately are unsus

  • 142
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Everything

    Besides being blind she was totally normal, so much so i actually forgot she was blind and one day she sent me an email in extra large font and it took me a moment to realise that she wasn’t shouting, we had a good laugh over that.

  • 143
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:23 am | Permalink

    Zoidy Depends on the disability.

  • 144
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    Mod @ 128, So you would take it up personally.

    That’s admirable – seriously, no sarcasm here – but don’t you think you’ll need help? You’re unlikely to get it from people with the philosophy that workers are paid too much and that even questioning the disparity is “class warfare”.

    I would break the union stranglehold on education, and run them more like private institutions, where the sloppy inefficient processes would never be allowed to continue.

    On this you’re just naive. Private organisations are full of sloppy, inefficient processes.

  • 145
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:21 am | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/132

    The problem is how good the work place is, and how much funds can Centerlink set aside to support the person working.

    It costs more money, time, and effort to retrain a disabled person than a normal person.

    I would prefer that you didn’t use the term “normal person”, zoidlord. It implies people with disability are abnormal, which they are not.

    It does cost money and time and effort, but long term DSP payments are not the easy solution.

  • 146
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:25 am | Permalink

    Watch what happens to Newman. That’s what’s going to happen to Abbott.

    “Crush you like a bug I tell you, a bug!!!”

  • 147
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    I suspect many people particularly those born with the disability would prefer to be treated as normal and employed.

  • 148
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    I am actually amazed at that Qld result: amazed at how good it is.

    Despite the ridiculous bikie laws, and the fact that Newman is unspeakably unpopular (if you only lived in PB alternate reality world that is), the fact that he remains in landslide win territory with a 6% buffer is a pretty good result at this stage of his term.

  • 149
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/145

    Sorry about that Mod lib, but long term DSP payments are a safety net, and should not be trifled with.

    Last I looked, we only cost $15 billion per year.

    So I disagree with you.

  • 150
    Everything
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    ….could it be that the Bludgers are wrong? :devil:

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