tip off

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The first Newspoll for the year is slightly at the low end of Labor’s recent average, and shows a lot of the air going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon approval ratings.

UPDATE (Essential Research and Morgan): Essential Research is still at 50-50, although Labor has been up three points on the primary vote over the past fortnight, the most recent move being one point to 39%. The Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady at 43%, 8% and 3%. There are also personal ratings and further questions which you can read about at the bottom of the post. Morgan has the Labor lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52.5-47.5 to 51-49 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40.5%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens down one to 10.5% and Palmer United up 1.5% to 4.5%.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the final poll of last year, which was conducted from December 6-8. Labor has dropped three points on the primary vote to 35%, but the slack is taken up by the Greens, who are up three to 12%, with the Coalition up by one point to 41%. The results also support Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J in comments serves up the personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott perfectly unchanged at 40% approval and 45% disapproval, Bill Shorten respectively down nine to 35% and up eight to 35%, and preferred prime minister effectively unchanged at 41-33 in favour of Abbott, compared with 41-34 last time.

UPDATE 2: Dennis Shanahan’s report on the results for The Oz.

UPDATE 3: Questions on ABC bias produce similar results to the recent ReachTEL poll, with most considering its news “fair and balanced”, but Coalition supporters more likely to feel aggrieved than Labor ones. Eighteen per cent felt the ABC biased to Labor versus 7% biased against, which naturally enough produced a mirror image when the question was framed in terms of Coalition bias (7% biased in favour, 19% biased against). Results for the Greens were hardly different than for Labor, with 15% thinking it biased in favour, 8% biased against, and 48% balanced. Tables showing breakdowns by party support here.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings have both leaders heading south, with Tony Abbott down six on approval to 41% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten down five to 30% and up two to 34%. Better prime minister is little changed at 40-30 in favour of Abbott, compared with 42-31 a month ago. As is usually the case when a party’s position improves in the polls, Labor has improved across the board on the question of party most trusted to handle various issues, the biggest changes being a drop in the deficit on “political leadership” from 23% to 13% and economic management from 26% to 19%. A question on various types of industry assistance finds strong support for drought relief, private health rebates and tourism development grants, but strong opposition to fuel rebates for the mining industry. Interestingly, automotive production subsidies score a net rating of minus 11%.

1892
  • 1851
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    G’night vic.

  • 1852
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    geoffrey

    Shorten is doing okay in my view. He has Tanya, Albo, Bowen, TBurke, Dreyfus and other strong MPs to support him

  • 1853
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    fredex

    That’s okay i thought maybe you didn’t realise or maybe i was incorrect.

  • 1854
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    Night vic

  • 1855
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    fredex

    I was thinking more in terms of the bond rate and other markets.

  • 1856
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    It is the worst govt ever. They make me sick to my stomach.

    Night

  • 1857
    prettyone
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    “I doubt Abbott could achieve those measures”

    Please try and support it. I also know some conservatives are against it too, not because it’s Tony Abbott initiating it, but for different reasons.

    Let’s hope we can all meet in the middle. It’s just a few words to complete Mr Rudd’s apology, which as you know Tony Abbott has great appreciation for, this is no “stunt”. Anyway, I’ve said my piece!

  • 1858
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    I think a mass walkout after a no confidence motion would force the MSM to look at Bishop’s performance.

    I think that then Bishop would not last the week.

  • 1859
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Of course its a stunt.

    Trying to distract from the manufacturing industries he’s caused the closure of, and the 50,000 unemployed he’s created since September.

    When he said stuff about a 200,00 jobs he actually meant 200,000 jobs gone

  • 1860
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    @billshortenmp: An awful week for jobs in Aust – first Toyota and now at least 1,300 more jobs gone with this terrible news tonight http://t.co/2f7WoeWmDw

  • 1861
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Hockey

    "The report as it related to the content of the discussion between myself and Toyota was correct, and Toyota's statement today is also correct," he said.

  • 1862
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Gidday MB,
    Well even bond rates are suss, for example despite our AAA rating we still pay higher interest rates than many countries whose economies have far greater problems than ours.
    Dog knows why we have such high rates, stupidity springs to mind as one possibility altho’ ideological straight jacket may be more accurate.
    And lets not forget the role of the ratings agencies and their culpability for the ongoing GFC [Standard and Poor for example].

    What really worries me tho’ is hinted at in Aussie’s comment #1844

    yep and stripping millions from Aboriginal Legal Services was a prime example of his real care.

    where people are made to suffer, in this case women and children in particular, because the powers that be falsely claim we have a budget ‘crisis’.
    We don’t – unless you accept that we need another ongoing stimulus which we ain’t gonna get it with this mob.

  • 1863
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Good.night

  • 1864
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Mmmmm…

    And speaking of the outlook, in an exchange on Twitter with me, @michaelpascoe01, Finance Minister Mathais Cormann (@MathiasCormann) sidestepped commenting on the Reserve Bank’s upgraded economic forecasts – the best economic news in nine months that effectively winds back much of the highly publicised deterioration in December’s MYEFO (mid-year economic and fiscal outlook).

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/blame-labor-voters-for-falling-consumer-confidence-20140212-32hn7.html#ixzz2t6oGhoQ6

  • 1865
    Player One
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    prettyone@1836

    I’m not sure what a Tory is actually, it’s not an Australian term?

    Actually, it is. From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tory

    In Australia, "Tory" is used as a pejorative term by members of the Labor Party to refer to members of the conservative and often coalition Liberal and National parties.

    Perhaps you should try and do some reading up on common political terms before wading into a political argument?

  • 1866
    lefty e
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    My main critique of capitalst social relations today is that the cricket isnt on free to air telly. Its on Fox.

    What possible use is that to man or beast?

    The system condemns itself.

  • 1867
    Player One
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed@1859

    Of course its a stunt.

    Trying to distract from the manufacturing industries he’s caused the closure of, and the 50,000 unemployed he’s created since September.

    When he said stuff about a 200,00 jobs he actually meant 200,000 jobs gone

    No, let’s be fair about this – Abbott has created at least 200,000 jobs since he was elected.

    He just forgot to mention that he was going to create them in China, Korea, Thailand, India, Indonesia …

  • 1868
    Centre
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott has lost more jobs in the last 5 months than Rudd did during the GFC.

    ffuuaakkcciinngg hell :lol:

    What about the stock market people???

    C’mon, call it, we all know Abbott is a drag on the Australian market.

    Grow some and call it – wimps :mad:

    *night

    Be happy Bludgers, we are on the side of good, we’re blessed :twisted: not the Greens :P

  • 1869
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Prettyone (are you be ironic with that name?),
    The Australian Liberal Party is not in any way socially or economically “liberal”. It is basically the Australian version of the British Conservative Party, the Tories. It is not socially inclusive. It is socially conservative. It is right-wing. Its main purpose is to protect the wealth of a small social and economic elite, to the disadvantage of all others.

  • 1870
    Player One
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Prettyone (are you be ironic with that name?),

    “prettyone” is a sock puppet. He/she is sometimes good for amusement value on a slow night, but not much else.

  • 1871
    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Pretty One … post 1836,,re political terms
    It seems beyond your understanding

    I suggest you just stick to your colouring books

  • 1872
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Player One, Have I missed something, or has Prettyone suddenly re-appeared. We must be gentle with him or her, though. Perhaps he/she has spent an exhausting day at the solarium, the beauty parlour, or the frock shops.

  • 1873
    Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott said the right words in his speech on ‘Closing the Gap’ this morning. We’re all waiting to see if he follows up with the right actions.

  • 1874
    Player One
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Player One, Have I missed something, or has Prettyone suddenly re-appeared.

    prettyone re-appears from time to time – usually when Abbott has just done something particularly inept.

    Actually, on that basis I’m surprised she/he doesn’t appear here more often.

  • 1875
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Prettyone says, “Let’s hope we can all meet in the middle. It’s just a few words to complete Mr Rudd’s apology, which as you know Tony Abbott has great appreciation for, this is no “stunt”. Anyway, I’ve said my piece!”

    It is my understanding that Abbott was asleep in his office during the Apology. Too much red wine he claims.

  • 1876
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    It is my understanding that Abbott was asleep in his office during the Apology. Too much red wine he claims.

    Abbot is known to have been asleep at some critical times, but not (I believe) during the apology. I think his most famous incident was during the GFC:

    From http://www.phonytonyabbott.com/facts/behaviour

    Tony Abbott once missed five key votes in Parliament - including the vote on the $42 billion stimulus package - because he was asleep in his office after having consumed too much alcohol.

    But you’re probably remembering this one:

    From http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbott-and-human-decency,5093

    Indigenous people travelled for three days to get to Canberra to put their case to a Parliamentary committee; Tony Abbott walked in late, didn't apologise, sat down and then fell asleep.

  • 1877
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    I thought Prettyone was an alternate identity for Sean T. But Sean has seen the light and has abandoned the dark side for the light. For his penance he will spend the next Federal Election day in sackcloth and ashes, handing out ‘how to vote’ cards in marginal electorates.

  • 1878
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    Re 1877: that’s Labor how to vote cards.

  • 1879
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    Hockey lied…

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BgPu-g3CQAAsSEJ.jpg

  • 1880
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    I thought Prettyone was an alternate identity for Sean T

    I really do wonder about my readership sometimes.

  • 1881
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    I really do wonder about my readership sometimes.

    I’ll bet you do. I’m sure it keeps you awake at night contemplating what a lucky lucky person you are to have this jolly crew at your place. :)

  • 1882
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    It’s either that or incontinence.

  • 1883
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    Only us old farts William.

  • 1884
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 1:16 am | Permalink

    Post 1865 proved I’m not a Tory … Whew :)

  • 1885
    FarQU
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 1:32 am | Permalink

    BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN AND THE E STREET BAND ROCKED THE FUCKING HOUSE

  • 1886
    FarQU
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 1:33 am | Permalink

    TWICE

  • 1887
    FarQU
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 1:33 am | Permalink

    TWICE

  • 1888
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 3:50 am | Permalink

    William Bowe

    “I really do wonder about my readership sometimes.”

    It’s increasingly obvious to me the place is being overrun with conspiracy-minded lunatics.

    Also I really don’t ‘get’ what prettyone said that made everyone feel entitled to jump all over him/her. Fact: the noun ‘Tory’ is anachronistic in the Australian context. Fact: if Abbott really wants to close the gap – and this Labor member doesn’t entirely doubt his good intentions in this regard – then he ought to be congratulated.

    Whether he actually does any good for our first peoples is another issue, but I don’t see him as the cross-burning, negro-lynching Grand-Dragon of the KKK that some people here so very badly want him to be.

  • 1889
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 3:54 am | Permalink

    AT

    but I don’t see him as the cross-burning, negro-lynching Grand-Dragon of the KKK that some people here so very badly want him to be.

    Neither do I but I think he just says ‘words’ that he thinks will get him through.

    Just another thing he doesn’t give a stuff about.

  • 1890
    Ian
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 5:14 am | Permalink

    ‘ Whether he actually does any good for our first peoples is another issue, but I don’t see him as the cross-burning, negro-lynching Grand-Dragon of the KKK that some people here so very badly want him to be. ‘

    If those who own Abbott tell him to be so. That is exactly what he will be.

  • 1891
    Otiose
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 5:27 am | Permalink

    05:27:00 13/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

  • 1892
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 5:38 am | Permalink

    New thread.

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