tip off

BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate has Newspoll eliminating Labor’s modest gains over the early new year period, when it had only Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL to go on.

The first Newspoll of the year has caused Labor to take a knock on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, helped along a little by a softer result from Morgan. Newspoll has also driven up the Greens, whose breakthrough into double figures softens a shift from Labor to Coalition on the primary vote to a 0.8% movement on two-party preferred. That translates into a solid six-point change on the seat projection, which is now back to hung parliament territory. Taking into account Labor’s still solid lead on the two-party result, this demonstrates the height of the bar the BludgerTrack model sets for Labor in making it to an absolute majority, mostly on account of sophomore surge effects in the decisive marginal seats. On the state breakdowns, the Coalition recovers one seat each in Victoria and Tasmania and four in Queensland. The latter is down to the publication of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland from yesterday’s Courier-Mail, which I have thus far failed to comment on. The poll of 800 respondents showed the Coalition with a 52-48 lead – a swing of 5% to Labor from the election, and 4% on the previous such poll in November – from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down five on the November poll), 33% for Labor (up three), 7% for the Greens (steady), 4% for Katter’s Australian Party (up one) and 11% for the Palmer United Party (up three). It was evident that BludgerTrack had wandered off the reservation for a while there so far as its Queensland projection was concerned, and the addition of this substantial new data point from a high-quality pollster has returned it to where it probably should have been all along.

There are also two new results to feed into the leadership ratings, one being the regular findings from Newspoll and the other the monthly result from Essential Research. Both have landed in exactly the same place after bias adjustments were added, and the effect has been to maintain the downward momentum for Bill Shorten that emerged when the last numbers were added from Essential Research a month ago. Tony Abbott on the other hand has been in a gentler pattern of decline after the steep fall that followed the Coalition’s polling slip in November, and has a stable lead of slightly below double figures as preferred prime minister. Some good analysis of the leadership ratings is available at the bottom of this post by Kevin Bonham, who previously noted that Shorten’s early ratings were on the mediocre side for a leader new to the job, and now finds similarities with Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean at comparable stages of the game.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

1740
  • 501
    deblonay
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

    A Right wing coup at the National Museum
    an end to black-arm-bands

    /www.theguardian.com/world/postcolonial/2014/feb/12/coalition-follows-election-win-with-cultural

  • 502
    deblonay
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    Right wing coup at the National Museum
    Brandis takes control
    ____________
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/postcolonial/2014/feb/12/coalition-follows-election-win-with-cultural

  • 503
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    Australia. You are knackered. Just heard HoJo on the radio explaining they did not support SPC because “Abdul the kebab maker at the Parramatta Markets can’t ask for money for new equipment”

  • 504
    Centre
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

    Everything

    You refer to records over the last forty years?

    St George won 11 comps in a row in the past so according to your logic they’re the team to beat in 2014?

    Rudd/Labor lost less jobs during the GFC than Abbott in the last 5 months – AMAZING!

  • 505
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    HoJo on the radio explaining they did not support SPC because “Abdul the kebab maker at the Parramatta Markets can’t ask for money for new equipment”

    Actually they could with instant asset write offs. Sad the Libs nuked that idea.

  • 506
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    What Abbott legislation is responsible for the job losses of the last 5 months?

  • 507
    Simon Katich
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    Everything, you dancing in Tulip Town with the pixies again?
    But I agree you do bring a certain colour to PB.

  • 508
    BH
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

    Rua

    I agree that Shorten’s question was good but do you think that Abbott will get away with stretching it out ovdr the 3 years?

  • 509
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

    “Abdul the kebab maker at the Parramatta Markets can’t ask for money for new equipment”

    Poor Abdul!

    Now, if Abdul was a billionaire miner he could get all sorts of concessions and subsidies.

  • 510
    Simon Katich
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    Not sure if it’s baby poo brown or off sick orange. ;-)

  • 511
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/506

    Since when do you need legislation to grant funding?

  • 512
    Centre
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    Everything

    Abbott promised to create, how many jobs in what time frame?

    Why did the people vote for him?

    Why did he lie to the people by promising them that he would create all those jobs?

    Look at the scoreboard – EMPTY!

    Mate, if Abbott thinks repealing the carbon price and mining tax is going to create all those jobs that were promised – he should try magic tricks for primary school kids.

  • 513
    don
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Everything@506

    What Abbott legislation is responsible for the job losses of the last 5 months?

    You are quite right, but that is not the way politics works.

    Viz.: Labor was lumped with the GFC through no fault of their own. They (Rudd and his Treasurer and advisers) did a great job, universally acclaimed by the rest of the world.

    But the Libs said, we gave you all this surplus, and you pissed it against the wall.

    Life isn’t fair, suck it up, princess.

  • 514
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Centre@498

    Dave

    You ‘ve raised some good points.

    Qantas is a basket case. I would sack the entire senior management as a starting point.

    Anything other than that I don’t really have an answer so the Liberals certainly don’t that’s for sure

    Centre – consider this -

    In 2001 shareholders had invested about $3.3 billion in Qantas and the banks had also lent $3.3 billion. In that year the accounting profit was $514 million (while cash flow after investment in equipment was a loss). Fast forward to 2010 and the company earned just $144 million, or just one-third of the profit 10 years earlier.

    Unfortunately, the story is worse because as of December 31, 2010, shareholders had tipped in $6 billion and the banks have stumped up $5.6 billion. At that stage the share price was $2.58 after having being about $6 in late 2007

    If you are wondering why the share price today, ($1.185 even after rising 6.8% today) is far far less than it was a decade ago, you now have your answer.

    Its a total disaster.

    The total market value of Qantas today is far less than all the money that has been tipped into it over the past 10 years and it has ceased paying dividends.

    This cycle cannot continue indefinitely. Yet a tory, free market “so called government” appears to be saying that it is going to force taxpayers to guarantee the debt of this bunch of incompetent losers, even though said debt is internationally rated as **JUNK**

    How many warnings does a reasonably informed ‘investor’ need to avoid this mob – fcuk run away from them!

    FFS – joyce and the board have to walk the plank.

    Nationalise it if need be and be done with it. Fix it up then relist it or sell it.

  • 515
    Centre
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    Dave

    You’ve talked me into it?

    Let Virgin or another carrier take it over asap :)

  • 516
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    What job creation policies has Abbott got?

    The Green Army?? what a joke!!

    The records clearly show that over 50,000 jobs have been lost under the Abbott Govt…..

    The stupid Liberal think it is more important to support things like the FBT RORT – that is rip off taxpayers, to the tune of $1.8 billion than it is to save the jobs of mums and dads working for SPC and other companies that they have destroyed with their lack of policy

  • 517
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/welfare-review-targets-jobless-disabled-20140121-316tj.html

    Here is the detailed list of what costs the gov more in terms of those on Centerlink, it’s the Age Pensions.

    “”If we look at what the government pays out under the age pension, about half of it goes to households that have more than half a million dollars in assets.””

  • 518
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    AA

    The records clearly show that over 50,000 jobs have been lost under the Abbott Govt….

    I think Rabbott & Co. would be pleased with this result.

    It is clear they are creating an environment of gloom in readiness for IR reform.

  • 519
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    Latest reportage on Nashgate

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nash-accused-of-misleading-parliament-over-food-ratings-website-20140213-32n9i.html

  • 520
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    Centre@515

    Dave

    You’ve talked me into it?

    Watch all the good little dawgies come out to support Qantas in the financial media in the coming days…as they always do.

    Watch the lack of analysis.

    Observe the bullshit.

    Watch the Ra Ra support.

    Watch the backing of hockey.

    Then just imagine if Swan had done the same.

  • 521
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    As per link above

    On Thursday night Labor senator Penny Wong said Senator Nash’s explanation that she had removed the site in part because the state and territory food ministers had unanimously agreed it required a cost-benefit analysis was contradicted by official documents.
    “On the face of the documents, including the communique from the meeting, this statement … is not true,” Senator Wong said. “The communique reveals the forum made no decision unanimously or otherwise.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nash-accused-of-misleading-parliament-over-food-ratings-website-20140213-32n9i.html#ixzz2tC5BvS5y

  • 522
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    I have recently arranged the Aged Pension for my mother. She lives in an almost new $800,000 house near Caloundra with no mortgage.

    She gets her ANU pension of $950 per fortnight and now gets 67% of my fathers CSS pension from Defence. An income of over $1500 per fortnight.

    She will receive $62 per fortnight (paid quarterly by agreement) but the main reason is the Pension concession card. This is worth nearly $1,000 a year in concessions. (Rates, Water, Electricity, Rego etc). The PBS is not an issue as she had a Commonwealth Seniors card already.

    The total benefit is around $2,500 a year.

    So when you hear stories about millionaires getting the pension, dump them in the garbage bin.

  • 523
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    6/343

  • 524
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    @ruawake/522

    To the stats above, there is over 2 million on Age Pension costing $36 billion per year, and apparently the fastest group.

  • 525
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    Abbott still giving the mining companies, read political party doors, $4 billion a year in SUBSIDIES.

    When does their Age of Entitlement end?

    Thats right the end of the Age of Entitlement only refers to the disabled, unemployed, low income workers, aged care and child care workers.

  • 526
    mari
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    http://au.sports.yahoo.com/news/article/-/21449652/us-anchor-defends-openly-gay-nfl-prospect/ What a refreshing article this is especially in conservative Texas Good on him

  • 527
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    To the stats above, there is over 2 million on Age Pension costing $36 billion per year, and apparently the fastest group

    Yep, thats fine by me. We pay people who have reached retirement age if they pass the income and asset tests.

  • 528
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    Many of the job losses are in WA and that’s due to the carbon and mining taxes apparently.

  • 529
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    What Abbott legislation is responsible for the job losses of the last ...

    What legislation has Abbott brought to the house to address the problem? The useless fool promised a confidence led economic boom from the day he was elected. Seems business is wisely voting a lack of confidence in this dreadful government.

  • 530
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    Everything@506

    What Abbott legislation is responsible for the job losses of the last 5 months?

    It’s not about legislation. Abbott has presided over the largest slump in business and consumer confidence in living memory.

    Any business worth its salt looks forward to see if consumers are going to spend their hard earned money on their products.

    The decision of Holden and Toyota is not about the past. It’s about the future. They realized that Abbott is hell-bent on driving this country into the ground for purely irrational ideological reasons, and therefore no-one will be able to afford to buy their products in future.

    So they left.

    Abbott is is the firing line. For god’s sake why doesn’t someone in the LNP with a few brain cells left pull the fucking trigger?

  • 531
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    Financial Services companies get squillions in subsidies as well. I guess they are Liberal voters so thats OK.

  • 532
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    ru

    Hiow are you and your mum managing?

  • 533
    Labour of Love
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    Many of the job losses are in WA and that’s due to the carbon and mining taxes apparently.

    A bit slow – 20 months later. Another Myth.

  • 534
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

    I seem to recall something claiming that confidence and the economy would get a boost simply from the election of the Coalition.

  • 535
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    @davidwh/528

    So how many job losses were lost when GST was brought in?

  • 536
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    me @ 534
    something => someone

  • 537
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    Actually business confidence is at improved levels but yes consumer confidence has fallen recently.

  • 538
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    What about subsidies for private health insurers?

    The premiums and subsidies are rising and the coverage is shrinking.

  • 539
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    So that would be those mining taxes that the industry bragged that they were’nt paying and would’nt pay?

    The same mining taxes abbott boasted didn’t raise enough?

  • 540
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord I didn’t say I agreed they were the reason however it’s just a realistic as blaming Abbott for the losses.

  • 541
    Labour of Love
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    I seem to recall something claiming that confidence and the economy would get a boost simply from the election of the Coalition.

    My thoughts exactly. Yes as I recall it would be automatic. Just tried to google it, but too much BS to read through to find the flippant one liner, there is so many of them.

  • 542
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    @DisplayName/534

    Something like this?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/consumer-confidence-jumps-in-september-ahead-of-coalition-victory/story-e6frg926-1226716768666

    But now:
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/02/12/consumer-confidence-bad-sign-economy

  • 543
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    davidwh@537

    Actually business confidence is at improved levels but yes consumer confidence has fallen recently.

    Just wait a while.

    As I said, business looks forward, not back – whereas the BuStat and other pollsters look backward, not forward.

  • 544
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    zoid
    Sure, but a bit closer to home. That is, here on PB.

  • 545
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    Actually business confidence is at improved levels but yes consumer confidence has fallen recently.

    Actually while some business confidence measures may have improved business confidence as measured by its willingness to employ and pay people has clearly fallen.

    Probably business ‘surveys’ where stupid business people who supported this idiot PM in opposition feel they need to ‘say’ they are confident whilst they shed jobs.

  • 546
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Player One just received the latest NAB business survey which is forward looking an business sentiment is stronger.

  • 547
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Player One just received the latest NAB business survey which is forward looking an business sentiment is stronger.

  • 548
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Hiow are you and your mum managing?

    Things slowly falling into place. I guess it takes time.

  • 549
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    ru

    Indeed it does. All the best going forward

  • 550
    Just Me
    Posted Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    Working link:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/postcolonial/2014/feb/12/coalition-follows-election-win-with-cultural-coup-to-set-all-to-the-right

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