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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 16, 2014

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GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1406 comments

1,406 thoughts on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. zoidlord

    @Psephos/1354

    Who said that? Not me.

    All I said is that the other side is equally bad, but refused to be punished for it.

  2. poroti

    mikehilliard

    [My thoughts as well. Less than Abbott’s poli pedal rort I imagine]
    Heard on the radio while out for a drive this morning a classic from Abbott. “Nobody is entitled to a free ride on taxpayers money”. Nearly ran off the road after heard bikerorts say that.

  3. mari

    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 11:45 am | PERMALINK
    Magistrate Charlie Rozencwajg found he was guilty of six charges of using Health Services Union credit cards.

    6 out of 145.

    I am trying to find a link is there one yet please

  4. Carey Moore

    [Great day to rush out a few unpopular policies.]

    South Australian election candidates, here’s your moment to shine!

  5. Diogenes

    I’m waiting for Independent Australia to tell us that Thomson is still innocent and there will be an appeal against this gross miscarriage if justice.

  6. Simon Katich

    holy smokes! WA senate rerun!

    Juicy.

    Who is cashed up? Who is willing to spend? who will be donating heavily over the next few months?

  7. davidwh

    Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime so corporate criminals do get caught at times and pay the price. Where a RC is useful is in a situation where normal investigation and prosecution powers fail particularly in areas like organised crime and protection rackets. Anywhere were there are clearly danger and threats to people who would otherwise report illegal behaviour.

    I don’t believe we have seen enough evidence of organised crime and protection rackets in unions to warrant a RC however we probably do need to beef up the corporate governance and reporting requirements to make it more clear that the type of behaviour will not be permitted.

  8. poroti

    One to keep an eye out for. Typhoid Mary Obeid could rack up quite a tally of “victims”.

    [
    THREE NSW Liberals MPs, including former Cabinet member Chris Hartcher are to be investigated by the Independent Commission against Corruption to find out if they solicited money in return for MPs doing favours.

    It will also hold a separate inquiry into Australian Water Holdings, a company associated with Eddie Obeid which gained a massive contract from Sydney Water.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/icac-to-investigate-3-liberal-mps-including-chris-hartcher/story-e6frgczx-1226830426836#

  9. guytaur

    Ludlam on High court 24 now

  10. zoidlord

    @davidwh/1363

    Major banks in Japan have been caught with their pants down as a example of that “corporate governance and reporting requirements” via Yakuza.

    http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/mizuho-banks-yakuza-scandal-more-than-30-execs-to-be-punished/

  11. guytaur

    Great Line

    What an opportunity. Federal politics to be seen not through Western Sydney but instead through Western Australia.

    Now Antony Green on

  12. Mick77

    Will Thomson potentially do time? It’s an important verdict and needed to be prosecuted, but I can’t see him getting anything more than a suspended sentence, however I’m not a lawyer (not in the eyes of the State anyway). Thomson strikes me as capable of being in denial forever, something like Gittany, but very different crimes. I thought he may be in danger from self-harm at one stage but I think being in denial is a very strong antidote against that.

  13. William Bowe

    Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor.

  14. lefty e

    Manus Island has to be shut down.

    [“The perimeter fences were breached by locals, the centre had already been evacuated and PNG police and locals carried out systematic attacks, savage attacks on the asylum seekers last night,” he told ABC News Breakfast.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-18/one-dead-77-injured-in-manus-island-unrest/5265960

  15. Psephos

    [Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime]

    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence.

  16. Steven Grant Haby

    Where does this leave the government re WA Senate election? Caretaker mode from once the election date is called?

    Steven

  17. guytaur

    William

    I am impressed with the speed you posted about the High Court decision. You left a lot of journalists on twitter in your dust.

  18. davidwh

    zoidlord Japan is not and has never been a good example of good corporate governance at any level. The current PM is trying to do something about that however I fear he will meet a sad fate as a result.

  19. lefty e

    And by the way, a journo told me Nauru is now charging A$8000 for an application for a journalist visa.

  20. Mick77

    lefty e
    [Manus Island has to be shut down.]
    Maybe; what’s left then: Nauru, and maybe now FIJI!!! Or maybe there’ll be too few to worry about as the boats seem to have stopped.

  21. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Just got a call from someone at my bank who had obviously seen that I had a decent sum sitting in a bank account and wanted to chat with me about interest rates, etc etc. God, that’s annoying. You park your money with them, then they try to leverage that to sell you investment services you definitely won’t need.

  22. Mick77

    P
    [Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime

    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence.]

    What, no parole after 2/3 served as in Indonesia?

  23. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    PSEPHOS – I think the medical experts concur

  24. poroti

    guytaur

    We’re just way way west Western Sydney 🙂 AS and BOATS !! have been causing “panic” and revving up red neck radio since at least the mid 1980’s

  25. Mithrandir

    [Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor.]

    When was the last time they had Labor ahead?

  26. zoidlord

    @davidwh/1374

    That maybe true, but, since when is Corporate Australia or Corporate USA good examples?

  27. imacca

    Ok, now that Thompson has actually been found guilty its open season to hang crap on him. Hopefully the upshot will be better vetting of candidates.

  28. victoria

    Goodness me today is a big news day indeed.

    How on earth did such violence manage to occur at the detention centre on Manus Island?

    This is absolutely horrendous

  29. zoidlord

    Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 39s

    Head of @AusElectoralCom & others responsible for WA Senate election debacle should resign with voters now forced back to the polls #auspol

  30. victoria

    So Essential, Morgan and Newspoll have Labor ahead

  31. davidwh

    [Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime

    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence.
    ]

    Don’t they have an obligation to keep him alive long enough to serve out his sentence?

  32. don

    William Bowe@1369

    Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor.

    William, I am not a psephologist, as you and others here know, but to me that means that either Nielsen or Essential is wrong. No doubt you will be commenting with the next thread, I will be interested to see what you think.

    Would MOE explain it?

  33. don

    Psephos@1371


    Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime


    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence.

    Medical specialists and the bloke over the back fence would say the same thing.

    😀

  34. Mick77

    7-1-7
    [Just got a call from someone at my bank who had obviously seen that I had a decent sum sitting in a bank account …]

    What’s your email address? I may have some investment opportunities to offer you after I receive your account details and password.
    Mick77@lagosinvestments.com.ng

  35. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    MICK – I considered that. But I think it was legit, funnily enough. Whenever I got to the bank they look at my account and start asking if I want to do something with the money

  36. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    VICTORIA – Shhh. Don’t tell Michael Stutchbury.

  37. victoria

    [Greg Barns
    #auspol Abbott government directly liable for Manus Island harm done to asylum seekers. It is a hell hole and Australia’s hell hole.]

  38. davidwh

    [@davidwh/1374

    That maybe true, but, since when is Corporate Australia or Corporate USA good examples?
    ]

    Well we do have strong legislation and common law in relation to corporate governance probably as good as found anywhere in the world. We run the risk of making errors when we generalise about painting all within a group with the same brush of the few people who flout the rules. It doesn’t matter whether it’s corporations, unions, politicians or ordinary groups of people.

  39. Simon Katich

    If BK is around, do you have any views on the “Powerful Communities Party” in the SA election?

  40. poroti

    They keep saying many of the AS were attacked by “locals”. Making it sound as if people from the local village wandered along to beat the crap out of the AS. From this report they were local employees not just wandering “locals”. As for the shooting a local journo reports that a GS4 guard said the notorious PNG police unit hired by us opened fire.

    [a local reporter asserted that it was local staff working for security contractor G4S who weighed in on asylum-seekers, reportedly with iron bars and machetes, causing mass injuries.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/reports-of-violence-and-serious-injuries-amid-conflicting-accounts-of-manus-island-detention-facility-uprising/story-fnihslxi-1226830048273

  41. don

    Mick77@1378


    What, no parole after 2/3 served as in Indonesia?

    Onya Mick! You do the maths and think “hey wait a minute….”

    :devil:

  42. Psephos

    [Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 39s

    Head of @AusElectoralCom & others responsible for WA Senate election debacle should resign with voters now forced back to the polls #auspol]

    I think Palmer is right about that.

  43. Oakeshott Country

    A great blooper from the SMH web site:

    Nor was he entitled to use union funds in any capacity once he had left the union and was working as a feral MP.

    Mar’in Ferguson always said he was a member of a feral government.

  44. Player One

    [ Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime

    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence. ]

    What a coincidence – Medical experts say the same!

  45. WeWantPaul

    [Well we do have strong legislation and common law in relation to corporate governance probably as good as found anywhere in the world]

    If we are the best you wouldn’t want to see the worst.

  46. shellbell

    Thomson can of course appeal. Maybe he can do another fundraiser where he can explain why he did not contest the facts asserted against him.

    His appeal cannot traverse, realistically, those facts which he did not contest.

  47. leone

    I hope everyone realises the Victorian police quietly dropped their investigation into Kathy Jackson last Friday – nothing wrong, nothing to see, move along folks….
    [VICTORIA Police has dropped an investigation into Health Services Union whistleblower Kathy Jackson over more than $100,000 paid to her and her former husband, and wages paid to the children of her new partner.

    Detective Gary Jenkins confirmed to The Australian yesterday that Victoria’s fraud squad had conducted a “thorough investigation” into allegations raised by the HSU’s national office that the payments had not been properly accounted for. “There were no criminal offences detected,” he said.

    It brings to a close an attempt to link Ms Jackson to an alleged web of corruption after she alerted police to evidence that resulted in charges against former Labor MP and union official Craig Thomson and a conviction against former HSU boss and ALP federal president Michael Williamson.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/hsu-cites-civil-option-as-police-close-jackson-case/story-fn59noo3-1226826521281#

  48. Socrates

    Hello all on this great day for justice, with the final conviction of Craig Thomson for his crimes. May all who have done similarly be similarly convicted. Better late than never. Let us hope for an appropriate length stay in a correctional facility, though I doubt his attitude is correctible.

    Those who can recall this man’s tearful denial a few years back, and claims he was set up, will share my sentiments. I recall a few on this blog saying he deserved the benefit of the “doubt”.