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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 16, 2014

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GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1406 comments

1,406 thoughts on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. rossmcg

    Are we all in shock

  2. zoidlord

    From last thread.

    @MB/444

    To Live, you have to study, even nations like Japan still have Student Visa’s under their tight migration rules.

  3. Peter of Marino

    I must be living in an alternate Universe.

  4. mexicanbeemer

    Yes & No

    Yes as i don’t think Tone has done too much right

    No as his government has been making the right sort of noises on many issues particularly the carbon tax and business regulation but i am yet to see the actions matching the words on the economy.

  5. zoidlord

    @MB/4

    The right sort of noises like scaring ABC into giving more propaganda for the gov?

  6. mexicanbeemer

    Zoidy

    And why can’t we treat students as migrants, they will be here studying for a number of years or the short visa option might be able to cover students.

  7. frednk

    Walks away shaking head.

  8. Centre

    ooooh

    Boats, boats and boats.

    Maybe Labor should adopt Greens boat policies given the loons are up to 12% so the Coalition can go to a 67/33 lead on 2PP.

  9. Just Me

    Thanks to BK for that wonderful snake link. 🙂

    I needed something like that after the latest Turnbull excrescence.

    http://www.bitrebels.com/design/photography-the-most-beautiful-snakes-in-the-world/

  10. mexicanbeemer

    No I am referring to removing the carbon tax and reducing regulation which would be popular in many sectors of the community.

  11. zoidlord

    @MB/6

    Because you are not migrating?

  12. confessions

    Boats, boats, boats, boats.

    The govt now has the appearance of being in control because boats have stopped.

  13. zoidlord

    @MB/10

    That didn’t work well in Queensland.

    Newman did a shit job here, what you think Abbott will do even more of a shit job Federally?

  14. ruawake

    Nielson leaves the reservation again. 😆

  15. confessions

    Centre:

    Labor should STFU about boats and start talking about jobs instead.

  16. ruawake

    I bet I will hear this poll on ABC Radio news in the morning, they ignored Newspoll.

  17. mexicanbeemer

    Most international students aspire to live here.

    As i wrote the actions are yet to meet the words but this government would be pleasing parts of the community that think we are over regulated (which we are too a point) and removing the carbon tax.

  18. absolutetwaddle

    According to the PB tin-foil hat brigade hive mind I thought it was supposed to be Newspoll that was sympathetic to the Coalition?

    Has Rupert Murdoch and his alliance of Jew bankers, Freemasons and the Illuminati now taken over Nielson?! I can see them all now, waxing their moustaches and chomping off cigar ends as they read this very thread with glee.

    God help us.

  19. mexicanbeemer

    Fessy is right the sooner the boats sink (pathetic pun) from public view and the opposition focuses on the economy the better.

  20. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 55s

    #Nielsen Poll Shorten: Approve 40 (-11) Disapprove 40 (+10) #auspol

  21. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 17s

    #Nielsen Poll Abbott: Approve 45 (-2) Disapprove 47 (+1) #auspol

  22. spur212

    I believe the ALP’s 4 point drop in the Nielsen poll is 100% due to the recent changes to the act interpretations act … Or some other thing I’ll just randomly make up in order to sell a newspaper …

    In all seriousness, I suspect we’ll see a small comeback from the Coalition in the short term due to them being far better at playing the language game than Shorten who is completely hopeless at it

  23. absolutetwaddle

    Seriously though, if anyone was expecting an uninterrupted run of Labor-leading polls all the way up until 2016 they were seriously deluded.

  24. Carey Moore

    [Are we all in shock]

    Not really. Things have calmed down a bit for the government. Also, boats have been in the headlines again – which is always a winner for the Coalition.

    The Abbott Government is not that well loved but it is nowhere near as on the nose as some here might think.

    I should also put it out there that, if the Government find a rhythm and get comfortable enough that that can keep small but constant leads (or even keep it 50-50) then Labor will need to change its tact completely. Even now they should. Playing the safe alternative only works if voters are looking for one, which they don’t seem to be.

  25. dave

    Peter of Marino@3

    I must be living in an alternate Universe.

    Nope. I have felt for a while and have said that the public have ‘accepted’ abbott and that they are not really interested in even important stuff like job losses etc.

    They thought they would win rudd seat!

    Not saying I like it.

    Abbott is winning the politics and has control of the government.

    atm.

  26. Centre

    Labor have been talking about jobs and the economy.

    Abbott is being given a tick for supposedly stopping the boats.

    Of course, stopping the boats has a long way to play.

  27. absolutetwaddle

    Also just sayin’, that precipitous drop in Shorten’s approval rating sticks out like a sore thumb. He hasn’t really made a massively positive impression lately, but neither has he completely fucked up in a way that would warrant such a response from the public.

    Will wait to see that aspect confirmed in the next poll.

  28. spur212

    If the polls start improving for the Coalition off the back of Abbott’s personal rating improving, then start worrying. Right now, he’s in a bad place but the arse hasn’t fallen out of his leadership (yet).

    Moving right along

  29. davidwh

    Boats, unions and Shorten. As I said a few days back he just doesn’t do negative politics as well as Abbott does.

  30. zoidlord

    @Dave/25

    Judging by the disapproval of both leaders, I don’t think they Accepted “Abbott”, they accepted “Coalition Party” for the moment.

    If News of TPP (including the attack on Copyright), Budget (which always has problems for Coalition), the polls will effect them.

    However, if the Media did their job, they wouldn’t be in such a position atm.

  31. Centre

    Spur212

    Don’t start crapping about leadershit.

    No matter what Shorten polls or records at the election in 2016, look towards leadershit for any solution and the result will be much, much WORSE.

    Comprehend? 😡

  32. Carey Moore

    Well the telling thing is that Abbott’s ratings aren’t that great and the Government’s support is not that strong. While I am not advocating it at this point, it’s possible Shorten may need to go in favour of someone who can finish Abbott off, if Abbott looks vulnerable but not terminal. We’ll see; I tend to be cautious about such calls though.

  33. Centre

    absolutetwaddle

    For the record, I do not believe and have never believed Newspoll or Nielsen rig their polls so stop painting everyone here with the same brush 😡

  34. spur212

    It’s not the negative thing or the policy with Shorten, it’s the language thing! He seems to think he’s above it because his strength is policy when language and communications are fundamental political skills.

    There’s probably something to be said about inspiration and engaging personality with Shorten too (Albo has those things in spades)

  35. zoidlord

    I notice PUP taking pot shots on Twitter between Labor/Liberal.

  36. absolutetwaddle

    Centre

    I am well aware the conspiracy theorists will not be posting in this thread for a while.

    Realities too disturbing to confront and all that.

  37. Centre

    absolutetwaddle

    Well don’t be a wimp, name them so why know if they will be posting or not in a while.

    Spur212

    Did you get to vote for the ALP leadership?

    I wanted Albo more than you so stop being impractical and an arse-hole!

  38. confessions

    And in a fortnight’s time if the polling flips back the other way, what will people here be saying?

    This is one poll. Keep it real, folks.

  39. Centre

    should read:

    name them so “we” know if they will be posting or not in a while.

  40. davidwh

    Fess I think the polls will flip and flop up until the next election. Can’t ever see Abbott being a popular PM.

  41. Henry

    It’s shallow and it’s puerile and oh so depressing but the union thing and boats seems to be biting.
    Question is, in the absence of any actual policies can Abbott and co keep the scam going for three years?
    As for Shorten, his ratings aren’t that bad, they just seem to be coming off relatively high ratings.

  42. deblonay

    The figures re Shorten seem likely to be correct

    He is worthy but very very dull…very low wattage re the charisma thing..and no sign of much life there

    Abbott may have profited by the boats being stopped for the moment ,and Labor has no policies of any kind except to be anti-Abbott,which may not be enough

    BRW..The Green vote is holding quite firmly in the 10-12% range… in all the polls they never falter

    BTW Where has Psephos gone ?
    has he got sick of us despite his reprimands…or has he gone overseas…perhaps to his beloved Israel

    Please spare us from Centre’s usual”Greens RIP” nonsense
    The Greens are rusted on and there is little variation from poll to poll..if only the ALP could hold as well

  43. Steve777

    Boats – Labor can’t compete on the issue so it should change the subject.

    OK, the boats have stopped. Do you feel secure in your job? You know that if you’re an employee in the PAYE system then the Liberals think you’re paid too much, your employment conditions are overly generous, that you have too much bargaining power? That their backers want to shift their tax obligations onto you? That they think the GST is too low?

    What about Medicare? How would you go without it? Education – are you OK to pay thousands of dollars per term in school fees? That’s what the Liberals mean when they say ‘choice’. What about tertiary eductation? John Howard doubled the cost to students and their families. What will this lot do? What about your aged and disabled family members? How will they fare? The Liberals will repudiate their commitment to the NDIS.

    And if your able to look beyond the immediate daily grind, what about the world your childeren and grandchildren inherit? The climate is changing no matter what lies they tell you. And is the environment just a place to dig stuff up and dump rubbish? Or is it worth something in its own right? Might it be part of our support system?

    Labor should say “You are beiong lied to. But you’re not stupid even if they think you are. where do your interests lie?

  44. confessions

    davidwh:

    They are getting credit for stopping the boats, even if it comes largely off the back of Labor’s policy, and the public shirt-fronting of the Indonesians, thereby trashing our relationship with that country into the bargain.

  45. Darren Laver

    With polling turn arounds like this, the Abbott Government could do with more “unpatriotic” Navy stories from ABC, not less…

    The ABC has made boatism a politically hot issue again, and only the LNP and Greens do well when boatists dominate the headlines…

    Abbott and LNPers may now not fear a WA Senate re-vote if they can keep boatism alive in the news-cycle.

  46. deblonay

    Robt Gotliebsen says that Abbott faces a “tsunami” of rising unemployment

    I think that fear of unemployment will take precendence over all other issues once that happens…if ones job is threatened
    then debates re boat people or unions pr SS marriage slide from view…it’s the job that holds ones life together for most people

  47. Steve777

    If my post @44 is too long, Confessions @15 put it more succinctly.

  48. Centre

    deblonay

    You will only get hurt if you think the Greens will poll double figures at the fair dinkum election – trust me 😀

    With Milne as leader they’ll be lucky to get 7% when people vote for real.

    *knock yourselves out 🙂

  49. William Bowe

    A look through past results of the iSentia political index, which monitors the volume of media coverage given to politicians, confirms my impression that Tony Abbott used to run second behind the prime minister of the time week in, week out, except maybe when there was a leadership challenge on. Whereas I’ve looked at ten weekly results since Bill Shorten became Opposition Leader and he’s placed second only twice. The week before last he fell to number eleven, behind Abbott, Hockey, Morrison, Joyce, Napthine, Stone, Newman, Turnbull, Pyne and Macfarlane.