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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 18, 2014

Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor's recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

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As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1627 comments

1,627 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

  1. rossmcg

    Boomy

    Can I have two pieces of Abbott flake and three bucks of chips, salt no vinegar?

  2. Yesiree Bob

    Edwina StJohn@1576

    Again with the chews !

    I actually think that you both are as offensive as each other.

  3. Yesiree Bob

    rossmcg@1589

    Deblonay

    The State libs were returned a year ago with grand plans for Perth’s public transport. They just forgot to mention that none of it would happen unless the Feds kicked in big dollars. I don’t know that Gillard ever promised the money but Abbott’s win meant there was no money for public transport anywhere, let alone Perth.
    t

    One thing that I can not understand is just what is Abbotts aversion to Public Transport.
    Surely, in our major cities, it makes so much sense for Governments to invest in comprehensive Public Transport networks ?
    It takes excess traffic of our roads, freeing up freight etc.
    It lowers pollution.
    It makes our cities more ameniable

  4. Thomas. Paine.

    [I dont understand why crossing Indonesia’s maritime border is a big deal]

    Well then it should be no big deal if boats cross Austrlia’s maritime borders……and so how close do we let the boats get…and Indonesian warship 1 mile of Sydney, AS boats 500 meters of Darwin? Oh..or do you draw a line where it isn’t acceptable…like a maritime border.

    It will be a big deal, espcially since Abbott is losing Australian jobs left right and center…and Indonesia adds to that by cancelling any trade between the two, sends Australians home….fires a few shots over our bow…

    No these can never happen, history shows us the unthinkable never happens over trivial events.

    I reckon Abbott and the Scum managed to piss Indonesia off well before the election and have doubled down on their imperialist stupidity since.

    And of course other nations are looking at the Australian governments behavior and see the Howard govt’s white racists in power once more. Abbott sees himself as Obama’s mashall maybe..

    But you can bet Washington are looking at Abbott in total horror.

  5. rossmcg

    Yesiree Bob

    Yeah we know it makes sense but Abbott is a typical Tory when it comes to public transport. The WA libs were closing rail lines in the 70s and their most recent election policy had the look of something that had been cobbled together at short notice in response to labor plans.

  6. Tom the first and best

    1603

    Public transport is too communal for many on the right. They think cars equal freedom and personal responsibility and are thus inherently good. They are car users themselves and look down on those who are not. It is something that will hurt the right over time with the growth in PT use and relative decline in car travel and then they will be less opposed to PT.

  7. boomy1

    [Can I have two pieces of Abbott flake and three bucks of chips, salt no vinegar?]

    You don’t want lemon because we already sold you one…

  8. Thomas. Paine.

    [A sober reminder why we should treasure our democracy and its conventions, not trash them.

    @bbcworldservice: Hospitals in #Kiev are full, we’re moving the injured outside the capital to stop them being arrested – doctor in #Ukraine’s capital]

    Europe-CIA/USA -v- Russia-Gazprom.

    Europe and USA stoking civil violence in the Ukraine to bring them over to Europe and disrupt Russia’s Gazprom’s dominance.

    Likewise the Syria conflict was ALL about a gas pipeline being permitted .. that would degrade Russia’s energy dominance in Europe. Nothing to do with democracy or any nasty governments deeds… You have the CIA arming Al Qaeda in Syria to maintain civil strife. but fighting them in Afghanistan? Bizarre. Everywhere the US goes there is death and destruction and civil unrest.

  9. Yesiree Bob

    Rossmcg and Tom the first and best,
    What these people seem to forget is that most people who use Public Transport, also use cars.
    Taking the train to work makes far more sense than driving.
    It’s cheaper (you don’t have the fuel cost, nor the exorbitant parking fees).
    Not only that but PT frees up the roads for freight and other commercial traffic.
    It makes so much sense to have a comprehensive PT system.
    At what stage do you think our Torie government join the 21st century ?

  10. Thomas. Paine.

    [Once again, Good old USA is pushing the bully lines on TPP, and countries like Australia are falling for it.]

    Corporations have well and truly taken control of the USA. Makes no difference who they vote for, they all tow the same line and funded by the same corporations.

    Having shredded the US constitution (who better than an expert on the Constitution to help out there) the corporate world wants to increase their powers everywhere.

  11. zoidlord

    Well that was bit of excitement tonight, and it does make me pissed off that political will sell of assets.

    Power went out, rang energex about 11:30, came around about 10 minutes, fixed in about 15, power on bout midnight.

    Better service than private companies.

  12. rossmcg

    Tom

    I also think that one of the reasons for Tory dislike of PT was that they usually had a unionised workforce and breaking up the bus service and privatising it got rid another union and therefore, in their minds, hurt labor.
    Also years ago I spoke to a WA Nat who told me his constituents hated public transport because it was heavily subsidised but they never got to use it.

  13. zoidlord

    @Swamprat/1580

    Some companies/lobbies/groups donate to both parties and thus ALP won’t ban them?

    e.g.

    http://www.zdnet.com/au/lobby-pushing-for-australian-piracy-crackdown-donates-millions-7000026421/

    “An analysis by ZDNet of the annual donor returns listed on the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) of reported donations to the political parties shows that since 1998, Village Roadshow has donated close to AU$4 million in total to the Labor and Liberal parties both federally and in the state branches.”

    But till ALP show me that they don’t do that anymore, they are no better than LNP.

  14. fredex

    Has this been posted?

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/dick-warburton-investigated-over-foreign-bribery-scandal-20140219-3313y.html

    [The senior businessman appointed by Prime Minister Tony Abbott to review Australia’s renewable energy target has been the subject of a secret internal investigation into his role as a former director of a firm involved in Australia’s worst foreign bribery scandal.

    The investigation findings were sent earlier this month to the Reserve Bank board and deal with Dick Warburton and his fellow former Note Printing Australia directors’ knowledge and handling of Note Printing Australia’s sanctions busting trip to Iraq in 1998. The investigation findings were sent earlier this month to the Reserve Bank board and deal with Dick Warburton and his fellow former Note Printing Australia directors’ knowledge and handling of Note Printing Australia’s sanctions busting trip to Iraq in 1998…..

    Mr Warburton’s appointment to lead the review of the RET, announced earlier this week, has drawn severe criticism from environmental groups who have questioned whether the self-described climate change sceptic is an appropriate choice.]

  15. swamprat

    zoidloid

    [@Swamprat/1580

    Some companies/lobbies/groups donate to both parties and thus ALP won’t ban them?

    e.g.

    http://www.zdnet.com/au/lobby-pushing-for-australian-piracy-crackdown-donates-millions-7000026421/

    “An analysis by ZDNet of the annual donor returns listed on the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) of reported donations to the political parties shows that since 1998, Village Roadshow has donated close to AU$4 million in total to the Labor and Liberal parties both federally and in the state branches.”

    But till ALP show me that they don’t do that anymore, they are no better than LNP.]

    It is the most blatant corruption.

    I believe no one should be able to bribe/pay for to those who would seek public office. It is so obviously aimed at corruption as the LNP gives testimony.

    Only the most cynical (or stupid) would pretend that the (same) money that has bought the US Government is now buying the Australian Government.

  16. deblonay

    Ton Paine and the Ukraine
    ______________
    You are right on the mark with the US-EU bid to destabilise Russia
    This was seen in the snide US media and poltical before the Sochi Games…they hoped the Games would nne a disaster…and they haven’t been..far from it

    \The US wants to damage the Russian oil and gas industry…but Putin will have none of that..and I suspect we will see some sort of Russian counter-attack in the coming months…perhaps high prices for EU buyers of gas?

  17. Tom the first and best

    1609

    That was me explaining the opinion of the right, not my (opposite) opinion.

    On this issue we may have to wait for some tories to be running the party who had some formative years in this millennium.

  18. Yesiree Bob

    Tom the first and best@1617

    1609

    That was me explaining the opinion of the right, not my (opposite) opinion.

    On this issue we may have to wait for some tories to be running the party who had some formative years in this millennium.

    I know, and agree.

  19. Yesiree Bob

    Actually, considering that the first thing people do before boarding a train in the morning, is to purchase a tabloid to read on the commute into town, you would think that Murdoch would have a quiet word in Tonies ear regarding increased PT funding.

  20. deblonay

    Re PT/rail and tory govts
    _______________
    Both Thatcher and Kennett hated railways and cut them back …for the reason some have given here

    Oddly in both the UK and Vic.. public anger over same led to the defeats of conservative govts

    Bracks outsmarted Kennett who closed a number of major railway lines..and would have abandonerd the whole system…but Bracks put big money into a railway revival and today the rural services in Vic are the best in Oz.with new tracks and a fleet of new Velocity trains to major regional centres like…. Geelong.Ballarat.Bendigo.Ararat.Echuca,and the La Trobe Valley towns.and with good longer services to places like Swan Hill/ Sale/Bairnsdale and Warnambool and Albury with buffets…great stuff and very much used and popular

    but Kennett would have wiped them out

  21. zoidlord

    Sinkholes in UK are more prominent now then a few years ago:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26251220

    Another factor in “climate change deniers” will have to face, with extreme weather changes.

  22. Yesiree Bob

    Oh lordy, is that the time ?
    I’ve still got a chapter to finish on an excellent book documenting how Murdoch operates, night all

  23. swamprat

    What a Ministry of Trough Feeders but still never ever responsible for anything uncomfortable that occurs…

    Fiona Nash, Minister for Obesity,

    Greg Hunt, Minister for War on the Environment,

    Scott Morrison, Hillsong Minister for Brutality and Lies

    Tony Abbott, PM for Suppression of Science, Nodding a Lot and “Jobs Come and Go”

    A. Sidonis, Minister for Stripping Super Accounts

    E. Abetz Minister for Restoration of the Unter-Mensch

    Bishop (jar), Minister for Being Blonde and Glaring

    Christopher Pyne, Minister for Squeals and Propaganda

    Constable P Dutton, Minister to Maximise Private Profit from Sickness and Suffering

    Hockey, Treasurer for the Carbon Tax excuse

    and on it goes…

  24. zoidlord

    http://www.roymorgan.com.au/findings/5432-most-important-problem-facing-australia-world-february-2014-201402190534

    “The largest problems facing Australia are The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates 12% (down 2%), Unemployment 11% (up 2%), Politics and Leadership 11% (up 3%) and Refugees and Asylum seeker problems 9% (unchanged).”

    Better get too it Tony, Jobs are important, ignore this other rubbish about cracking down on Piracy, TPP agreements etc.

  25. mexicanbeemer

    kezza2

    Too a point i agree but i have known of kids in single parent homes minus father that have been highly successful.

    The gender of the parent means little, attitude is genderless

  26. Otiose

    UPDATE: 06:24:00 20/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol http://bit.ly/1fgvQko