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Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

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  • 1051
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    Parents call on Productivity Commission to extend childcare rebate to nannies

    So they can go out to work to pay for the older kiddies’ exclusive private school paments?

  • 1052
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-19/parents-call-for-childcare-rebate-on-nannies/5267994

  • 1053
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

    You’d think Labor was bad at implementing policies….

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26239532

    “However, concerns have been raised about the prospect of keeping all the information in one place, with campaigners saying that it could lead to privacy problems and data breaches.”

    Tories do it on a massive scale too.

  • 1054
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    JOE HOCKEY TO G20 FINANCE MINISTERS:

    I have a plan that will get the world’s economies back on track. We in the Liberal Party are prepared to share that with youse all, as we are now the Chair of this august organization.

    FINANCE MINISTERS:
    So what’s you plan, Mr. Hockey?

    JOE HOCKEY:
    Cut spending.

    FINANCE MINISTERS:
    We’ll certainly take that on board, won’t we guys?

    (General head nodding and agreement).

    JOE HOCKET:
    It’s the ONLY WAY to fix the economies!

    FINANCE MINISTERS:
    Thanks Joe…

  • 1055
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    @BobBrownFndn: Tasmanian Liberal Leader Will Hodgman has just announced plans that will gut Tasmania’s National Parks and World… http://t.co/EpkqLwcey1

  • 1056
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

    Plibersek has called Irans complaint about the death “a bit rich”.

  • 1057
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

    Read the scenario of the family they interviewed. Got a business. she has had to cut her design work back to two days a week (waaa waaa), no mention of dad cutting his hours back to do his bit of childcare, can’t afford a Nanny (sniff), wants taxpayers to pay for nanny so both of them can concentrate on making alright dosh from their business. (of course)

    BK, yes there is the private school fees to save for. Little Plantagenet and Erskaline are so sad they have gone off their Gold Leaf Organic Enzyme Booster Accidopolous Saffron Powdered Milk…err Formula.

  • 1058
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    I think I can happily agree with Tanya on this occasion Dio.

  • 1059
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    BK – dont get me started on private school payments. Those golden handcuffs are on so many execs and small business owners that IMO it is partly to blame for the rising unemployment rate. Sounds absurd, but whilst some employers will take a small cut to their stock returns and bonus’s in slow times, they will not do it to the point they have to send their kids to a cheaper school (or sell the holiday house). They would rather cut costs and pressure or sack staff rather than maintain staffing levels through a downturn. Short-term-ism prevails when they are faced with the humiliation of moving their child from an elite school to one that merely charges $15K a year.

  • 1060
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    Tanya is reflecting the reactions of a lot of voters with that one.

    if Iran did not treat their whole population like we treat a few Asylum Seekers, sans the added torture, death and disappearances, they might have a leg to stand on.

  • 1061
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

    What the hell Napthine is doing in Vic?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/shifting-melbourne-metro-rail-tunnel-west-a-catastrophe-doyle-20140219-33067.html

  • 1062
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    and before dwh pipes up – i am not talking about paying staff to do nothing, i have seen staff on 80+ percent utilisation being laid off.

  • 1063
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    Hmm, how about we cap private school fees, by law, to say, 10k a kid?

  • 1064
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    I wasn’t going to say anything Simon. I said enough for one day.

  • 1065
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

    But you were thinking it….

  • 1066
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

    SimonK,
    The sooner we can get to cutting the private schools off the gov’t tit the better. There is no credible justification for gov’ts to find private schools.

  • 1067
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

    p.s. I am actually a supporter of public education

  • 1068
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    That furphy of ‘my kid goes to a private school, so we are doing youse all a favour by not using public education’is an old crock that should be emptied down the nearest thnderbox asap.

  • 1069
    leon
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    I read somewhere that Ukrainians make excellent concentration camp guards. With the present unrest in Ukraine the feds should be able to recruit some to bring Manus under control.

  • 1070
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    The sooner we can get to cutting the private schools off the gov’t tit the better. There is no credible justification for gov’ts to find private school

    Surely they’ve been cutoff already isn’t the age of entitlement over? What a stupid, dishonest and hopeless government we have.

  • 1071
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    And as those living in and around Adelaide know, those elite schools are not about quality of education, its about the boys club. There are large companies in this town where most if not all the execs come from 2 or 3 schools. There is no glass ceiling here, its made of concrete and discriminates against more than just gender. Sydney is a meritocracy in comparison.

  • 1072
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    How about we charge private schools to be in business? A licence fee equalling the GST rate?

  • 1073
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    That furphy of ‘my kid goes to a private school, so we are doing youse all a favour by not using public education’is an old crock that should be emptied down the nearest thnderbox asap.

    I have never believed it, the economics just doesn’t make sense. Most numbers people quote seem to come from an accounting firm only Hockey would use, working for the independent schools to illustrate how much they ‘save’ the State Government by taking money from the Federal Government. It is bizzare. But then we willing elected Abbott to be PM and he is even stupider, more political, less honest than we thought, and most of us thought that wasn’t possible.

  • 1074
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    davidwh, and I am a supporter of private education. But not when they create a climate that works against a meritocracy and where they cost so much they pressure otherwise nice employers to do stupid things.

  • 1075
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    I have heard several of the elite schools in Sydney now only allow children (or grandchildren) of alumni to enrol. Doesnt matter ho smart you are or how much money you have.

    Now that stinks.

  • 1076
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    WWP

    I believe you are saying you refuse to believe the Productivity Commissions numbers because you don’t like them.

  • 1077
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    SimonK
    I had a socoiology professor explain to a few of us the networks that entwine Adelaide. You were nobody unless you’re an OAF (Olde Adelaide Family) then there is the St Peters set, the Scotch set, all the other rowing club sets, the marriageable young gels of the elite girls schools, all Protestant-religions based, and interbreeding like a remote village in the Steppes. No wonder Don Dunstan gave ‘em heartburn!

  • 1078
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    And to prove it, that is villages producing court jesters, we have the cream of the crop: Adelaide produced Downer.

  • 1079
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    Puff
    ha ha,yes he did. And for a man who liked to wear short pink safari shorts he also managed to get their respect.

  • 1080
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    Not really Simon. I know there are bad employers out there. On the other hand there are also good employers out there as well.

    In our case our business shrunk by more than half in the four months from October 2008 and it was a real team effort by all, management and staff, to re-structure to survive. Management took a 20% pay cut and to date have got half back. Employees agreed to a 10% pay cut and have all received at least all of that back. Haven’t paid any dividends since 2008. Currently we are back to around 75% of pre-GFC levels and improving but on tighter margins.

    Personally I don’t understand employers who don’t appreciate their people but accept there are firms out there who think like that. I do wonder whether they will struggle more once things do start to get back to normal and they find it harder to recruit good people.

    Basically there are good, bad and ordinary in all walks of life. That’s human nature.

  • 1081
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    And Pyne. Oh the rumours i have heard…..

  • 1082
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Don was fantastic, and I did not even live in Adelaide in that era.

  • 1083
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    SimonK,
    You too!

  • 1084
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    I believe you are saying you refuse to believe the Productivity Commissions numbers because you don’t like them.

    Lol thanks for the suggestion but that isn’t really quite what I’m saying. Perhaps I could suggest the assumptions made to model the outcomes are not assumptions I consider reasonable.

  • 1085
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    yes davidwh, i generally agree, my point was that excessive private school fees puts undue pressure on otherwise reasonable employers to think short-term.

  • 1086
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Puff, i went to a uni lecture by Downer and i was impressed. but that was coming off a low base. i played cricket against his son and was not impressed.

  • 1087
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    “And Pyne. Oh the rumours i have heard…..” Would Christopher feel comfortable in Russia?

  • 1088
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    Who’s Policing Manus Island?
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/02/18/whos-policing-manus-island
    “If this is indeed proven to be the case, it should not come as a surprise to the Australian government. The mobile squads, which have been stationed on the island to secure the facility, have a documented history of “solving problems” through extreme violence.”

    Difference between now and 2006, is that this is the start of PM Abbott tenure as PM.

  • 1089
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    Maybe poodle doesn’t like vodka.

  • 1090
    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    A clear view of media distortion and lies
    _____________________________
    A CNN pic claims to show a 4 year old Syrian boy who”crossed the desert ” alone to refuge in Jordon…and see pic…but as a journo discovered the pic has been clipped from a larger one which shows a whole party of refugees all around him,including his family one assumes
    clear dishonesty…I bet Murdoch will also use it …it would be just his style of pic

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/_

  • 1091
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    simonk,
    Dolly should be able to lecture. He has been lecturing the peasants for decades.

  • 1092
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    “Maybe poodle doesn’t like vodka” – but maybe he likes something that Vlad doesn’t.

  • 1093
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    Would anyone feel comfortable in Russia? Unless you are a stud and ride horses of course. I don’t qualify :(

  • 1094
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    Russia is on a par with the USA, neither country holds any appeal to me.

  • 1095
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    Simon 1085 I understood your point and basically agree.

  • 1096
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    deblonay

    It wasn’t the UNHCR who said the kid was crossing the desert alone, it was a CNN anchor who retweeted the picture and mistakenly annotated it to that effect.

    What do you have against the UNHCR anyway?

  • 1097
    mari
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 2:18 pm | PERMALINK
    @MiaFreedman: Manus Island is already a wretched place. Now it’s become a national disgrace writes @michellegrattan
    http://t.co/UioW5zNAd5

    Just come back looks like Michelle G may be repenting her sponsorship of here boy Tony before the election.

    BUT The main reason did you see the drawing by the asylum seeker’s children in the article, exactly the same as the Jewish children in the concentration camps during 2nd WW. I saw them in the Jewish museum in Prague and it has haunted me since (as little captions said almost none survived the camps, most died in 1944 from memory) No wonder I am upset this is being done under an Australian Government God curse them please

  • 1098
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    A simple question – to whom did this pathetic creature think he owed allegience?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-19/royal-commission-toowoomba/5269254

  • 1099
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-19/zeega-7-things-you-didnt-know-about-the-national-rock-garden/5269226
    Don’t forget to click on the arrows. I sat through whole song waiting for the image to change. derr.

  • 1100
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    Well I know the place I have felt the most uncomfortable and intimidated was going through LAX. Those Americans have no idea how to welcome strangers to their country. However once I got out into the suburbs I found most Americans to be friendly enough. My son worked in Silicon Valley for a number of years so got the opportunity to spend time with ordinary people doing ordinary things and they were fine generally.

    Probably most places would be like that once you get away from the tourist areas.

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