tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.

The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.

2335
  • 101
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    Sprocket

    Take the profit now. 1st March Saturday paper launches. Soon Mail Online Australia. Share price will not last in my amateur opinion.

  • 102
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    Abbott on 24 now

  • 103
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    24 cuts Abbott for Port Kembla demolition :)

  • 104
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Morrison_(politician)

    [Scott Morrison (politician)
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    The Honourable
    Scott Morrison
    MP
    Scott Morrison.jpg
    Minister for Immigration and Border Protection
    Incumbent
    Assumed office
    18 September 2013
    Prime Minister Tony Abbott
    Preceded by Tony Burke
    Member of the Australian Parliament
    for Cook
    Incumbent
    Assumed office
    24 November 2007
    Preceded by Bruce Baird
    Personal details
    Born Scott John Morrison
    13 May 1968 (age 45)
    Waverley, NSW
    Nationality Australian
    Political party Liberal Party of Australia
    Residence Lilli Pilli, New South Wales
    Alma mater University of New South Wales
    Occupation Politician
    Profession Marketing, Tourism, Property, Politics
    Website http://www.scottmorrison.com.au
    Scott John Morrison (born 13 May 1968) is a member of the Australian House of Representatives and a member of the Liberal Party. He was elected in the 2007 Australian federal election to the Division of Cook, an electorate in the southern suburbs of Sydney, which include Cronulla, Caringbah, and Miranda. He has been the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection since 18 September 2013.[1] In February 2014, Morrison was dismissed as Immigration Minister following the death of an Iranian detainee who was killed while in detention on Manus Island. He is currently under investigation for permitting children to be detained in detention.]

  • 105
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Are you saying that ABC left presser with Abbott to go to something else?

  • 106
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Yes

  • 107
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    As per the audio i linked on previous page, Hurley was asked by Ulhmann how the navy could infringe Indonesian waters on six occasions with the technology to hand.
    Hurley responds wtte that it was not a matter of them not knowing where they were. It’s a matter of them being in the wrong spot.

  • 108
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    vic

    The Port Kembla demolition has colour and excitement hundreds are there to see the tower fall.

    Why would the choose Abbott over that?

  • 109
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    “they”

  • 110
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    mtbw

    But, but, but , Abbott is our dear esteemed leader

  • 111
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    vic

    I actually have some sympathy for Hurley the Government is using him as the fall guy.

  • 112
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    SPROCKET – My theory is that, because of the internet, the “print” market is going to fragment and the Herald will not be able to straddle a number of political segments of the market. What guytaur says about the Mail Online etc, seems to confirm that. Soon we will have a paper for every political persuasion.

  • 113
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    mtbw

    Would people such as Hurley allow themselves to be used this way by a Labor govt?

  • 114
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    I think we can now say our Winter Olympics team has underperformed worse than the Summer team.

  • 115
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    vic

    I doubt that the ALP would ask the Army to take the flack.

    This mob are cowards.

  • 116
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Mtbw

    Good point

  • 117
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    What a surprise.

    Energy asset privatisation fails taxpayers: Economist

    Energy sector privatisation in Australia has been a “failure” which has produced “no benefits” for consumers, but has resulted in “large fiscal losses” to taxpayers, a new report has found.

    Economist John Quiggin, a laureate fellow at the University of Queensland, reviewed energy sector privatisation and the related process of electricity market reform between the early 1990s and now, and found no long term benefits for either governments or consumers.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/energy-asset-privatisation-fails-taxpayers-economist-20140219-3316n.html#ixzz2toiOqtIq

  • 118
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    BOM prepares to cop flak for failing to forecast Geelong storm

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/bureau-of-meteorology-prepares-to-cop-flak-for-failing-to-forecast-geelong-storm-20140220-332dq.html

  • 119
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    @SMART_facility: @AlboMP accuses fed treasurer of planning 2 rip billions in fully-funded #infrastructure spending from budget[newsrel]http://t.co/4Rx0qPv9eq

  • 120
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Michael Rowland
    Looking forward to hosting @billshortenmp's speech at the @MelbPressClub at 1pm AEDT. Catch it live on @ABCNews24
    abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

  • 121
    milenko
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Victoria @ 107
    The question that wasn’t asked / answered was…
    How close to land did ships get ?
    Hurley again said “operational matter”…. arses being covered everywhere

    It will all come out in the end

  • 122
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Abbott presser 24

  • 123
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
    Follow
    An attack on the unions won’t necessarily have the expected political impact – Frank Bongiorno http://inside.org.au/doing-the-dirty-work/ … #auspol #ausunions
    11:21 AM – 20 Feb 2014

  • 124
    Darn
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 7:43 am | Permalink
    I was delighted to see Peter Dutton reduced to a blithering idiot by Sarah Ferguson on 7.30 last night. His reversion to his “Labor bad” mantras failed badly.

    Yes, I just watched it and she really carved him up towards the end, leaving him looking a bit shell shocked.

    I know she has been criticised by some here over the past two or three weeks, but I think she is far more professional and direct than Leigh Sales and I would like to see her take over the spot permanently. I would be much more inclined to watch the show regularly if she did.

  • 125
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    milenko

    There are so many obvious questions that the esteemed msm have not asked

  • 126
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says the Govt’s work on ‘fixing’ the budget will have to be consistent with coalition’s pre-election commitments. @abcnews”

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says his Govt will be the best friend of Medicare. @abcnews”

  • 127
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says the Immigration Dept’s accidental publication of asylum seekers’ details was ‘wrong’ – ‘getting to the bottom of it’ @abcnews”

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott on Manus – we will not succumb. We will ensure these camps are run fairly, and if necessary – ‘firmly’. @abcnews”

  • 129
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    guytaur@126

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says his Govt will be the best friend of Medicare. @abcnews”

    Well, there goes our Medicare then.

  • 130
    milenko
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    Victoria , I console myself by listening to internet PBS radio (WNYC) , they know how to be evenhanded & explore public issues in depth…. without rudeness , ego or anger

  • 131
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    The point Hurley made on the ABC this morning to explain how the errors happened was similar to what I was saying yesterday. If the navy incorrectly were working on the basis the border was at point X when in fact the border was a point Y then it doesn’t matter how accurate your own position is. If X is inside Y then you will improperly move inside of point Y.

    Now I know people won’t believe that is possible however the alternatives are just as hard to accept.

    One alternative has the Australian government issuing orders to the armed services to deliberately enter Indonesian territory and that order being passed down to the officers carrying out the border protection policies. But when caught the armed forces agree to take the wrap for the government orders. Barely possible alternative and certainly hard to see being sustained once the heat hits. Someone in that chain of command is going to leak and perhaps that is yet to happen.

    Another alternative, one suggested by DN last night and one which is more likely, is that the officers on the spot stretched their orders to more safely disembark the refugees. I can imagine this as a slight possibility if it only happened once perhaps twice but not six times by different officers. It would require multiple officers deliberately disobeying direct orders and hard to imagine it would happen that way.

    Often the truth is the simple explanation. The navy was under pressure to carry out their orders, and we know many of them do not support the policies, and because of the pressures involved made errors. The fact the navy itself realised the errors had been made and commenced the actions to look at why the errors happened and correct them lends much support to the simple explanation alternative.

    I honestly don’t see the armed forces from top to bottom providing the government with an alibi but if they have tried then expect to see the details leaked at some point.

  • 132
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    As per usual Abbott is full of shit

  • 133
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    guytaur@128

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott on Manus – we will not succumb. We will ensure these camps are run fairly, and if necessary – ‘firmly’. @abcnews”

    The only credible solution that Job Loss Abbott has is to process Refugees on home soil.

  • 134
    milenko
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    Victoria
    They also do satire

  • 135
    milenko
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    Victoria
    They also do satire

  • 136
    meher baba
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    Re Peter Dutton and Medicare

    It’s quite extraordinary that we have finally heard a comment on policy from Mr Dutton. How long has it been?

    Anyway, I’m sure I’ll be in a small minority on this forum (possibly a minority of one) when I observe that it is a high time for a major rethink about how Australia is going to pay for the cost of its health system in the longer term.

    Pollies and others can go on all they like about wasteful subsidies to the manufacturing sector, or the size of the public service, or the cost of the paid parental leave scheme or disability support pensions, or even the size of superannuation tax concessions. But all of these issues pale into insignificance compared to the growing and largely uncontrolled cost of our health sector.

    Even if the suite of services provided by the health sector to Australians remained exactly the same over the next 50 years, the total cost will grow significantly faster than inflation per capita largely because of a) staffing pressures (ie, not enough doctors and nurses, especially in certain regional areas) and b) the rising average age of the population.

    But it’s all far worse than this because the overall suite of goods and services is becoming more expensive all the time due to an accelerating rate of improvement in medical technology.

    The health system in Australia is a mixture of a socialist public hospital system in which resources are allocated by rationing and a more open-ended community treatment regime in which the majority of services are provided privately and funded through Medicare/Pharmaceutical Benefits. The revenue raised through Medicare Levy covers a small and ever-diminishing proportion of the cost of this public system, leaving general tax revenue to cover the growing gap.

    Private health insurance operates as a sort of safety valve by supplementing both the hospital system (by funding private hospital treatment) and ancillary community health services.

    Private health insurance – for the services it funds – is now a very well means-tested system. High income earners are more or less compelled to contribute to it (or else pay a surcharge on their Medicare Levy). But, unlike the rest of the population, they receive no rebate for their premiums.

    I know that few on PB will agree with me about this, but this was not a great policy decision, in that high income earners make the largest contributions to the health insurance pool relative to what they take out of it (with the significant number of old age pensioners who hang on to private health insurance like grim death being far and away the biggest users of the private system). Since the rebate has been taken away from high income earners, many (like me) have reduced their level of hospital cover to the bear minimum required to avoid the Medicare Levy surcharge and have dropped their extras cover. This is already putting significant upwards pressure on premiums, which won’t be covered by increases in the rebate: because the Gillard Government also imposed a new mingy indexation arrangement. So the amount members have to pay will rise significantly over the next couple of years, leading to many of the poorest and most vulnerable dropping out and falling back on the public system.

    In my view, the current setup is quite unsustainable and the obvious answer is a good two-tiered system. Tier One is for people with incomes above AWE. These people will be strongly incentivised to take out comprehensive private health insurance that covers everything they need: hospital treatment be it in a public or private hospital, pharmaceuticals, GPs, ancillary, even preventive things like gym memberships and running shoes. As with current private insurance, the premiums would be “community rate” so that the sick don’t need to pay more than the well. You can join it at any time in your life, but you pay a loading the older you are.

    The government can choose to subsidise this system as much as it feels like: I imagine a sort of cyclical process through which Labor Governments ramp up the means testing of any subsidies and then Liberal wind them back. This won’t matter very much as long as legislation compels anyone in this system to take out comprehensive cover: ie, so that there is no chance that they will need to fallback on the public system, except in a ring fenced range of special high cost treatments that are more or less uninsurable (heart transplants, incredibly expensive drugs, etc.)

    The second tier is the public system, which is free for anyone who meets the means test requirements and is charged at a relatively high cost to any better-off people who choose not to take out health insurance. The challenge for governments of both persuasions will be to fund this system adequately to avoid the standard of care and treatment falling too far below that available through the private system. This is, of course, an existing and growing challenge for the public hospital system: pious rhetoric about Medicare notwithstanding. I don’t know too many Labor politicians who have chosen to go on waiting lists for surgery: they either pay for it themselves or try to persuade someone with influence to facilitate their jumping the queue.

    I see this eventual outcome as inevitable. Over the past few decades, the Coalition has needed to come to terms with the idea of everyone who can’t afford to pay having an entitlement to free health treatment (as opposed to their long-preferred model of allowing health professionals to select the “deserving” cases for pro bono treatment). The challenge for Labor will now be coming to terms with the need for a two tier system that requires the better-off to cover more of their health care costs themselves in exchange for the possibility of receiving a higher standard of care (remembering that wealthy people of working age, as a general rule, use fewer health services than the rest of the population).

    A couple of decades ago, the left gave up the idea of public housing being for anyone other than the poor. A growing proportion of lefties I know (including Labor politicians) have also abandoned the public school system, with even the non-Catholics increasingly choosing to send their kids to private schools. Abandoning the outmoded goal of an entirely socialist health system is the next cab off the rank for the left.

    Anyway that’s my take on the problem. Feel free to disagree with me.

  • 137
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    Jon Faine ABC radio host said that all this has done has made the Australian public lose faith and trust in its govt, navy and millitary on several levels. This has all round been a clusterfuck

  • 138
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    @thomwoodroofe: Aus Climate Change Authority slated for abolition goes ahead with its own review as planned on renewables target: http://t.co/6bDIJtXQun

  • 139
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    Didn’t listen to Abbott, just saw his lips moving. Can’t see the point as he is an habitual liar.

  • 140
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    When abbott says the government will be Medicare’s best friend just remember he said that about Indonesia.

    I read once that the three great policy issues for Howard were IR reform, a GST and getting rid of Medicare. The first he tried and failed, the second he got up, just imagine how much Abbott would like to deliver the third for his guru.

  • 141
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    One problem. Such territorial limits and how they are measured is 101 stuff. Multiple operators on different ships all made the same incompetent mistake ? Sure they did.

  • 142
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    Victoria I agree. Well I agree that should be the outcome in any case. My guess is the military was pressured into acting more quickly than it should have on the border protection strategy and therefore didn’t allow themselves sufficient time to prepare adequately. Now if that is the case then both the government and senior military people have to take responsibility. Sadly it will probably come down to some middle-level officers taking most of the wrap.

  • 143
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    Holy Kahunas. I was thinking about selling my Fairfax shares yesterday at 70c, bought for around 50c. The (once again) breathless stories of declining circulation etc

    Today with results released, including surging digital revenues (I must say their iPad app is very good), the shares are up a whopping 26% to 90c.

    Really? Sell ASAP. Their share price will probably never be this high again.

  • 144
    milenko
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    Surely radar ect would indicate location / distance of land , any conflict in information would be obvious & ring alarm bells ( unless I as off ?)

    Obviously they knew exactly what they were doing… Including now with standard military “deniable plausibility “

  • 145
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    rossmcg

    When abbott says the government will be Medicare’s best friend just remember he said that about Indonesia.

    Love it!

  • 146
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    24 cuts Abbott for Port Kembla demolition :)

    Nah! They just confused one crumbling emitter of greenhouse gases with another.

  • 147
    Windhover
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    BB at 88:

    Morrison is right on one thing: we DO need to protect the integrity of our sovereign borders.

    I disagree. The “integrity” of Australia’s borders has probably never been as strong as it has been in the last 10 years. There is no present “need” to take any of the ridiculous steps we are taking in clear abuse of our Treaty obligations. Supposedly we look back with shame at allowing a boatload of post-World War II jewish refugees to be turned away from our shores because they could not pass a quickly constructed English test.

    I would go further. The extent to which we cower ungenerously behind our artificial National boundary in clear breach of our Treaty obligations to asylum seekers is the measure by which an equally ungenerous community of nations should care about real breaches to our to our National integrity.

    Australia as a nation state has that right. And we are permitted to use force to do so. All this is clear. If we allow economic immigrants too poor or too impatient to go through channels, people smugglers and corrupt Indonesian officials to decide our immigration policy, we are in deep trouble. We can’t solve all the world’s problems. Unfortunately it’s a buyer’s market, so Australia can pick and choose.

    It’s just solving the problem that’s the hard part. I’m really glad it’s Abbott’s baby now.

    I do not disagree with you that we can’t solve the worlds problems but I think you agree with me that we must “think globally” in our local acts in relation to AGW. And so we must with asylum seekers.

    I agree with Guytaur’s comment that a regional solution is essential to controlling the flow of asylum seekers. (And I agree with you that having control of the flow of asylum seekers is important, not just for their health and welfare, nor to prevent criminal activity, but also because it is important that the nation has control over the total number of people who should live in Australia – not that any discussion of that problem figures on any (non-racist) political agenda.)

    I disagree with Guytaur that the Greens have been anything other than utterly politically disingenuous in their raising of any sort of regional solution. The “Malaysia solution” was a wonderful blueprint (but not panacea) for the sort of co-operation between nations (largely Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia) that is essential to be developed for Australia to have some sort of control over the migration of asylum seekers – be they economic or not – to our corner of the globe.

    As it is the Nauru and PNG solutions are morally depraved solutions. They are utterly inconsistent with our Treaty obligations to provide for asylum seekers who come to our shores. They are a de facto punishment for these people that is as outrageous (indefinite detention) as it is unwarranted. [The Malaysia solution avoids these accusations by placing those sent to Malaysia in no worse position then they would have been in had they not made the journey to Australia].

    I am very unhappy it is Abbott’s baby. As the world continues to shrink the baby is just going to get bigger and uglier and there is an obvious limit to our current solutions. And with the continuing deterioration of relations with Malaysia and Indonesia any “control” over baby in the longer term will be forlorn.

  • 148
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    Player 0ne

    Nah! They just confused one crumbling emitter of greenhouse gases with another.

    Love that as well!

  • 149
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    Retweeted by EFA
    Rebecca Giblin ‏@rgibli 1h

    The EFF’s @xor (aka Parker Higgins) addresses the Australian #copyright reform agenda: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/02/fair-use-may-be-headed-down-under … #copyrev

  • 150
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    david

    Another alternative, one suggested by DN last night ...

    Perhaps DN is someone else (with the same contraction) but I’m sure I didn’t. That the navy did it for humanitarian reasons is a possibility that’s been raised a number of times by others.

    The navy was under pressure to carry out their orders, and we know many of them do not support the policies, and because of the pressures involved made errors.

    This is closer to what I said last night. Even if we allow that they were mistakes, it’s the nature of these policies to increase the chance of events (errors, say) that will put us at odds with Indonesia, contrary to our PM’s stated intent to improve the relationship.

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