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Queensland Politics

Feb 22, 2014

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# % Swing 2PP (proj.) Swing
Andrew Tyrrell 177 0.7%
Sally Vincent (Family First) 586 2.5% -2.1%
Len Thomas 2,513 10.6%
John Marshall (Greens) 950 4.0% -2.7%
Gabriel Buckley 230 1.0%
Yvette D’Ath (Labor) 10,375 43.6% +12.9% 56.2% +16.3%
Talosaga McMahon 317 1.3%
Liz Woollard 279 1.2%
Kerri-Anne Dooley (Liberal National) 8,353 35.1% -14.1% 43.8% -16.3%
FORMAL/TURNOUT 23,780 71.7%
Informal 655 2.7% +0.3%
Booths reporting: 13 out of 13

9.49pm. The two-party results from the pre-polls have now been added. I’ve switched off booth-matching, so all swings shown above compare the current result with the final total from 2012.

8.30pm. All booths now in on 2PP, and around 4000 new pre-poll votes added on the primary vote. I’m guessing a two-party result for the latter votes is the last outstanding addition for the evening.

8.04pm. All booths in on 2PP now except Scarborough North. The latest additions have slightly moderated Labor’s winning margin.

7.57pm. All booths in on the primary vote, four outstanding on 2PP.

7.52pm. Redcliffe TAFE 2PP added, with four left to go on 2PP, and Scarborough the one straggler on the primary vote.

7.39pm. When I said Scarborough had reported before, I meant Woody Point. Kippa-Ring north has reported as well, as have seven booths all told on 2PP. So the Labor margin of 7% is looking solid.

7.36pm. Bally Cara 2PP result added, which has moderated Labor’s gain on the preference share considerably: now up 3.6%, with the LNP down 6.3%, and exhausted up 2.8%. Still a projected Labor winning margin of 7% though.

7.33pm. Scarborough booth added on the primary vote, leaving only two more to go, but with still only one booth reporting on 2PP.

7.30pm. The pre-poll votes also have 2PP results now, and here Labor’s gain on the preference share is more modest. However, the projection above is based on polling booth results only.

7.29pm. Finally a 2PP result, from Kippa-Ring South, and the projection is now using this result rather than the 2012 election to extrapolate across other booths. This has given a solid boost to the projected Labor margin, with Labor’s share of preferences up 9.7%, the LNP’s down 8.0%, and exhausted down 1.8%.

7.23pm. Andrew Bartlett relates: “Preferences from 86 Greens votes at Kippa Ring booth went 40 ALP, 4 LNP, 42 exhausted.”

7.19pm. Independent Len Thomas, who ran in opposition to anti-bikie laws, has his head above double figures.

7.16pm. Smallish Scarborough North booth added on primary vote, leaving three more to come; still nothing for 2PP.

7.13pm. Clontarf and Redcliffe South push projected Labor margin over 5%. Four booths outstanding on primary vote, and still nothing for two-party preferred.

7.11pm. Biggest booth in yet from Kippa-Ring, which produces a good result for Labor that pushes the projected margin to nearly 5%. Still no preference counts though …

7.09pm. Woody Point South added, projected Labor margin now reaches 4.0%.

7.08pm. Clontarf Beach added, slightly increasing projected Labor winning margin. Still no two-party results though, so this assumes 2012 preference flows.

7.06pm. Bally Cara and Redcliffe TAFE have reported on the primary vote. The former is a retirement village and comfortably the electorate’s most conservative booth. Respective two-party swings are 11.8% and 14.8%, well in line with overall trend and confirming an impression of Labor winning by 3-4%.

7.04pm. 2463 pre-polls added, which I don’t have configured for booth-matching, but the swing on them is perfectly consistent with the overall trend. I gather this is about half the likely pre-poll total.

6.59pm. Second booth in now, from Frawley, and projected Labor winning margin up from 2.6% to 3.5%. Still going off 2012 preferences here, so a small degree of caution advised.

6.52pm. So far, I’m going off the 2012 election preferences. The first two columns in the above table are raw representations of the primary votes, but the swing and two-party columns are based on booth-matched results.

6.48pm. The Humpybong booth is first out of the blocks, and it shows a Labor swing 12.7%, enough to overturn the overall 10.1% by a small margin. This was Labor’s best booth in 2012, or its least bad — the LNP margin was 57-43.

6pm. Polls have now closed, as ReachTEL reports an exit poll shows Labor headed for a comfortable victory. Stay tuned for coverage of results as they emerge, which should start to happen in three-quarters of an hour or so.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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158 comments

158 thoughts on “Redcliffe by-election live

  1. ruawake

    6,000 pre polls apparently.

  2. davidwh

    It will be an early night I think.

  3. Psephos

    Not a cricket fan, obviously.

  4. davidwh

    Not me the result 🙂

  5. ruawake

    Huge rain front about to sweep over Southern Africa tomorrow, it will be a rained out draw.

  6. Everything

    30.8% swing against the ALP showing on the ABC website. However, that might be due to no votes having been counted yet….

  7. sprocket_

    [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 7:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Huge rain front about to sweep over Southern Africa tomorrow, it will be a rained out draw.]

    happy I took the $3.50 on the draw, though the $1.06 ALP in Redcliffe was tempting.

  8. davidwh

    A draw will do to pass India on the world rankings.

  9. davidwh

    It’s always good to celebrate your losses as well as your wins. It will be pretty ugly.

  10. ruawake

    sprocket

    Do you think they hired a hall a bit too big, 😆

  11. Psephos

    It would be an insult to the candidate and the campaign workers not to. I’m sure we’ve all been to election night functions when we’ve been thrashed. The party needs to show the campaign workers that their efforts are appreciated.

  12. confessions

    sprocket:

    Is that Newman’s actual genuine twitter account? If so I’m astounded he’d tweet those words under that photo. Is he deliberately trying to come over as an arrogant douche?

  13. ruawake

    [Is that Newman’s actual genuine twitter account?]

    Yep. Wonder why he is being sued for defamation by lawyers yet? The man has gone mad.

  14. ruawake

    Warner 70 the rest 50.

  15. William Bowe

    Humpybong booth has reported, and I’m projecting a 2.6% winning margin for Labor.

  16. ruawake

    Humping the Bong is Newman’s favourite booth, he could not even win that one. 😆

  17. Everything

    [William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 7:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Humpybong booth has reported]

    It is usually bong then humpy isn’t it?

  18. silentmajority

    What an interesting place name, humpybong.

    Anybody know the final betting?

    Labor $1.06?
    LNP?

  19. ruawake

    12% swing against LNP in Humpy etc.

  20. confessions

    [LNP?]

    $7 I saw earlier.

  21. Compact Crank

    The ALP won.

    In other news Dog chases Cat.

  22. silentmajority

    CC,

    You mean Labor will turn around a seat they lost 57-43.

    Cat chases dog.

  23. deblonay

    Hi Edwina Sexchange_________
    _______________
    You have not said if you saw the ABC 4 Corners doco on the torture of small children by your Israeli friends

    Have you seen it yet.???..if so..where you shocked and appalled ? aas were mst viewers I spoke with

    No wonder a US Jewish Scholar Blumenthal recently spoke of the quasi-fascist Right in the Israeli govt…who would have thought it possible in the descendants of Holocaust survivvors…strange old world isn’t it ??

    ABC Doco just for you

    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/02/10/3939266.htm

  24. ruawake

    Len Thomas who campaigned against the Bikie laws is doing OK.

  25. silentmajority

    Greens are down in this booth. Labor vacuuming up those by the looks of it

  26. Everything

    [silentmajority
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:00 pm | PERMALINK
    CC,

    You mean Labor will turn around a seat they lost 57-43.

    Cat chases dog.]

    You mean Labor win in a by-election, with an unpopular Premier in a seat which they had a 12% margin in (56-44) before the last election?

    Dog chases cat.

  27. kevjohnno

    Even a 13% swing against the LNP at Bally Cara retirement village. final 2PP will be interesting if minor parties votes exhaust.

  28. confessions

    [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 3m
    #redcliffe – Even a 12% swing at Bally Cara retirement home – results at http://ab.co/1ddEVWZ ]

  29. ruawake

    Has Kerri-Anne conceded yet?

  30. Psephos

    A 14% statewide swing would give Labor a majority of seats. Complete newbies would have to go into Cabinet.:)

  31. ausdavo

    Can’t see how preferences go 50/50 when 2 biggest are Thomas (anti bikie laws) and Marshall (Greens) 14% out of 20% to be exhausted or distributed. Last election prefs mean little here.

    Backing up Deblonay – Sin Jin you haven’t answered! Do you support Zionist atrocities against children?

  32. milenko

    Redcliffe by-election no litmus test
    Brisbane Times ‎- by Amy Remeikis ‎- 5 hours ago
    Ultimately, the Redcliffe by election is about Redcliffe. And that’s as it should be.

    Amy proves like Rebekah Brooks, pre requisite to work for Rupert is being delusional

  33. Psephos

    I don’t think Zionist atrocities were a big issue in Redcliffe.

  34. sprocket_

    BillBo has 15.3% 2PP swing against LNP.

    Would like to see this nationawide, and maybe we will after Tassie and SA get a taste of Liberal agenda

  35. Rex Douglas

    Congratulations Yvette D’Ath.

    A significant clip over the ear for Campbell Newman it seems.

  36. Libertarian Unionist

    [ Complete newbies would have to go into Cabinet.:)]

    I’d rather a bunch of ALP newbies than one Newman.

  37. deewhytony

    But … But … But …

    Yvette D’Ath was a member of the evil Rudd / Gillard / Rudd government.

    How could conservative Queenslanders even consider voting for her?

  38. Psephos

    Is Liz Woollard the Liberals for Forests lady from WA?

  39. mikehilliard

    [Has Kerri-Anne conceded yet?]

    Probably waiting for the postal votes. 😀

  40. ruawake

    [Amy proves like Rebekah Brooks, pre requisite to work for Rupert is being delusional]

    Brisbane Times is Fairfax Digital. 😛

  41. sprocket_

    these are some seriously bad numbers for LNP in their heartland wannabe

    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 20s
    #Redcliffe Primary Votes after 11 booths: LNP 35.1 (-14.3) ALP 43.7 (+13.0) Thomas IND 10.1 (+10.1) GRN 4.2 (-2.1) #qldpol #auspol]

  42. William Bowe

    Amy doesn’t work for Rupert (or write her own headlines).

  43. confessions

    No, you’re thinking of Janet Woollard.