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Redcliffe by-election live

Live coverage of the count for Queensland’s Redcliffe by-election.

# % Swing 2PP (proj.) Swing
Andrew Tyrrell 177 0.7%
Sally Vincent (Family First) 586 2.5% -2.1%
Len Thomas 2,513 10.6%
John Marshall (Greens) 950 4.0% -2.7%
Gabriel Buckley 230 1.0%
Yvette D’Ath (Labor) 10,375 43.6% +12.9% 56.2% +16.3%
Talosaga McMahon 317 1.3%
Liz Woollard 279 1.2%
Kerri-Anne Dooley (Liberal National) 8,353 35.1% -14.1% 43.8% -16.3%
FORMAL/TURNOUT 23,780 71.7%
Informal 655 2.7% +0.3%
Booths reporting: 13 out of 13

9.49pm. The two-party results from the pre-polls have now been added. I’ve switched off booth-matching, so all swings shown above compare the current result with the final total from 2012.

8.30pm. All booths now in on 2PP, and around 4000 new pre-poll votes added on the primary vote. I’m guessing a two-party result for the latter votes is the last outstanding addition for the evening.

8.04pm. All booths in on 2PP now except Scarborough North. The latest additions have slightly moderated Labor’s winning margin.

7.57pm. All booths in on the primary vote, four outstanding on 2PP.

7.52pm. Redcliffe TAFE 2PP added, with four left to go on 2PP, and Scarborough the one straggler on the primary vote.

7.39pm. When I said Scarborough had reported before, I meant Woody Point. Kippa-Ring north has reported as well, as have seven booths all told on 2PP. So the Labor margin of 7% is looking solid.

7.36pm. Bally Cara 2PP result added, which has moderated Labor’s gain on the preference share considerably: now up 3.6%, with the LNP down 6.3%, and exhausted up 2.8%. Still a projected Labor winning margin of 7% though.

7.33pm. Scarborough booth added on the primary vote, leaving only two more to go, but with still only one booth reporting on 2PP.

7.30pm. The pre-poll votes also have 2PP results now, and here Labor’s gain on the preference share is more modest. However, the projection above is based on polling booth results only.

7.29pm. Finally a 2PP result, from Kippa-Ring South, and the projection is now using this result rather than the 2012 election to extrapolate across other booths. This has given a solid boost to the projected Labor margin, with Labor’s share of preferences up 9.7%, the LNP’s down 8.0%, and exhausted down 1.8%.

7.23pm. Andrew Bartlett relates: “Preferences from 86 Greens votes at Kippa Ring booth went 40 ALP, 4 LNP, 42 exhausted.”

7.19pm. Independent Len Thomas, who ran in opposition to anti-bikie laws, has his head above double figures.

7.16pm. Smallish Scarborough North booth added on primary vote, leaving three more to come; still nothing for 2PP.

7.13pm. Clontarf and Redcliffe South push projected Labor margin over 5%. Four booths outstanding on primary vote, and still nothing for two-party preferred.

7.11pm. Biggest booth in yet from Kippa-Ring, which produces a good result for Labor that pushes the projected margin to nearly 5%. Still no preference counts though …

7.09pm. Woody Point South added, projected Labor margin now reaches 4.0%.

7.08pm. Clontarf Beach added, slightly increasing projected Labor winning margin. Still no two-party results though, so this assumes 2012 preference flows.

7.06pm. Bally Cara and Redcliffe TAFE have reported on the primary vote. The former is a retirement village and comfortably the electorate’s most conservative booth. Respective two-party swings are 11.8% and 14.8%, well in line with overall trend and confirming an impression of Labor winning by 3-4%.

7.04pm. 2463 pre-polls added, which I don’t have configured for booth-matching, but the swing on them is perfectly consistent with the overall trend. I gather this is about half the likely pre-poll total.

6.59pm. Second booth in now, from Frawley, and projected Labor winning margin up from 2.6% to 3.5%. Still going off 2012 preferences here, so a small degree of caution advised.

6.52pm. So far, I’m going off the 2012 election preferences. The first two columns in the above table are raw representations of the primary votes, but the swing and two-party columns are based on booth-matched results.

6.48pm. The Humpybong booth is first out of the blocks, and it shows a Labor swing 12.7%, enough to overturn the overall 10.1% by a small margin. This was Labor’s best booth in 2012, or its least bad — the LNP margin was 57-43.

6pm. Polls have now closed, as ReachTEL reports an exit poll shows Labor headed for a comfortable victory. Stay tuned for coverage of results as they emerge, which should start to happen in three-quarters of an hour or so.

158
  • 51
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    Is Liz Woollard the Liberals for Forests lady from WA?

    That was Janet.

  • 52
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    psephos,

    you’re right they’re not.

    But Sin Jin keeps slurring people and is unwilling to put his money where his mouth is – quite a despicable person.

  • 53
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    Vote One Zionist Atrocities, for better roads in Redcliffe.

  • 54
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    Lucky Kerri-Anne is picking up the FF vote, must be a personal backing. ;)

  • 55
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    Better roads in Redcliffe is an LGA issue nothing much to do with this election! LOL

  • 56
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    Greens vote down AGAIN. Does Andrew Bartlett have a theory about that?

  • 57
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    Better roads in Redcliffe is an LGA issue nothing much to do with this election! LOL

    The Zionist Atrocities Party will deliver better roads anyway. The Rothschilds will pay.

  • 58
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

    everything

    care to update your projections?

  • 59
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    A 17% swing would deliver Labor 43 seats.

  • 60
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    @ Psephos 56

    I’d hazard a guess that most of the swing against the Greens went Labor’s way (wanting to ride the strongest surfer on the wave against the LNP), maybe some of it went to Len Thomas (he seems to be the primary “I hate both major parties” protest vote here).

  • 61
    mikehilliard
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    18% swing – double yikes!

  • 62
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    @ Psephos 59

    43 seats in addition to their 8, or 43 seats in total?

  • 63
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    that’s what happens in Israel – roads bulldozed straight over the ruins of palestinian homes stolen without compensation!

  • 64
    rossmcg
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

    Given the way things have worked out for Janet Woollard and her family in WA I’m the last few years she is not likely to be putting herself up for election again any time soon! even in Queensland. Not nearly far enough away.

  • 65
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    Ironically, an 18% 2PP swing here would give Redcliffe the status of being Labor’s safest seat in the state, outclassing Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala (currently held on a 6.9% 2PP margin).

  • 66
    kevjohnno
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    The Zionist Atrocities Party will deliver better roads anyway. The Rothschilds will pay.

    Yeah but only in Newport.

  • 67
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    Arrnea, 43 + 8

  • 68
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    that’s what happens in Israel – roads bulldozed straight over the ruins of palestinian homes stolen without compensation!

    I doubt there are many Palestinians in Redcliffe, so that problem won’t arise.

  • 69
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    @ Psephos 67

    That would certainly speak to a certain… volatility in politics of late (Miranda by-election in NSW, Queensland election in 2012, seat swings in Tasmania in the 2013 federal election), would it not?

  • 70
    C@tmomma
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    Yes!

    Anyone who calls Public Hospital Doctors, Nurses and hard-working Firies, “Union Thugs” deserves to lose BIG TIME!

  • 71
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

    That would certainly speak to a certain… volatility in politics of late (Miranda by-election in NSW, Queensland election in 2012, seat swings in Tasmania in the 2013 federal election), would it not?

    As long-term party loyalties decline, that’s what we’d expect.

  • 72
    victoria
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Hi c@t

    You have been missed!!!!!

  • 73
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    @ Psephos 71

    Well, less rusted-on voters and more people actually trying, at least on some level, to choose a candidate based on the issues (or what they think the issues are) is something I can definitely live with.

  • 74
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    the one who should fess up is sin jin.

    Instead he goes to ground and allows you to repeatedly trivialise a very serious issue that most Australians have no knowledge of.

  • 75
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    Hey C@t, hope you’ve been well.

  • 76
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    Well, less rusted-on voters and more people actually trying, at least on some level, to choose a candidate based on the issues (or what they think the issues are) is something I can definitely live with.

    Sadly, I don’t think that’s happening. I think there is a a declining belief in the efficacy of democratic politics and therefore a declining interest in politics generally. As well both the traditional working class and the traditional small-farmer class are rapidly disappearing.

  • 77
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    Instead he goes to ground and allows you to repeatedly trivialise a very serious issue that most Australians have no knowledge of.

    Well I have a great deal of knowledge about it, so don’t provoke me – not in this thread, anyway.

  • 78
    outside left
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Good to see you c@t! How’s those 3 local state libs looking?

  • 79
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    I’m hardly provoking you – if anything you provoked me.

    And.. you’re not the only one with a great deal of knowledge
    regardless of how highly you regard your opinions.

  • 80
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

    And.. you’re not the only one with a great deal of knowledge
    regardless of how highly you regard your opinions.

    I can’t think of another subject on which the abyss of ignorance and prejudice among people at this forum is so deep.

  • 81
    zoomster
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    Love this tweet!

    Labor undefeated in 2014

  • 82
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    You have to feel for them.

    [https://twitter.com/The_BrownDog/status/437159239300046848/photo/1/large

  • 83
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    Sadly, I don’t think that’s happening. I think there is a a declining belief in the efficacy of democratic politics

    Well, in that case, they are (unfortunately) not far from the truth. The stench of self-serving corruption of the ruling class is beginning to get the common folk’s ire (and both major parties are guilty of this).

    Ah, what I wouldn’t give for a proper grass-roots social democratic movement without the baggage associated with the Greens (and other minor leftist parties), or that associated with Labor and the union movement.

  • 84
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    How many votes still to come, William? Turnout is still only 59%. Labor still has fewer actual votes than it polled in 2012. How much of the swing is due to LNP voters staying at home?

  • 85
    sohar
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    I assume with a swing like this most of the newly elected (and more) LNP members would be out at the next election. Will they be tempted to dump Newman to save their seats?

  • 86
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    @ Psephos 84

    Looks like the turnout was ~64%. Ouch.

  • 87
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    There seems to have been a revolution in Ukraine.

  • 88
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    Ah, what I wouldn’t give for a proper grass-roots social democratic movement without the baggage associated with the Greens (and other minor leftist parties), or that associated with Labor and the union movement.

    I’m starting to drift towards that point of view.

  • 89
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    I gather there’s about 3000 outstanding pre-polls, with I guess about 2500 postals. That might push it as high as 80%, which isn’t so bad for a by-election.

  • 90
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    I can’t speak for others but I’ve never displayed “prejudice” – simply stated facts!

    As far as “ignorance” that one is distinctly subjective.

    If you check back you’ll see my original comment followed on from deblonay and was to a person who runs away from the truth but repeatedly slurs others.

    You, and you alone, chose to buy into my question to that person whose name is pronounced “sin jin” and decided to trivialise a very important issue which I had no intention of continuing on until you added your comments.

    Those comments at no time displayed any of the “Well I have a great deal of knowledge about it, so don’t provoke me” persona you now come out with.

    If anything, to me your comments were quite childish – but you chose to add them in this Redcliffe discussion.

  • 91
    kevjohnno
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    Remaining pre polls & postals will bring the turnout up to about 80%.

  • 92
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    @ Psephos 88

    Well, the floor is open. Pitch a party, maybe you’ll pick someone up.

  • 93
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    To sum up Len Thomas’ vote.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Vlpffta1o7A

  • 94
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    kevjohnno

    where does on find a stated number of pre polls & postals or is it based on last time? the AEC site says 2421 pre polls have been counted so far (about 12.5%) of all counted votes.

  • 95
    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    on = one (sorry)

  • 96
    deblonay
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    Re Sin Jin …I accidentally placed my challenge to Sin Jin on this thread
    I was in error and it should have been on another thread where he was posting earlier

    sorry about that !

  • 97
    Everything
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    ausdavo
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:33 pm | PERMALINK
    everything

    care to update your projections?

    Huh? You mean this:

    Everything
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 5:13 pm | PERMALINK
    I reckon (based on ALP TPP):

    60+ good
    55-59 meh
    50-54 YIKES….just!!!!!
    <50 unmitigated disaster

    Nope, it still stands.

    ….looking like "meh" is going to be the winner too. I would guess the final margin might come back a little to the LNP with postals, but whosetoknow in a by-election????

  • 98
    C@tmomma
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    Hi vic, confessions & outside left! :)
    Going well. Enjoying the smell of karma in the morning up here at Xanadu on the NSW Central Coast.
    Still writing, in case you hadn’t heard. Migs at AIMN has adopted this stray. I said to him, ‘Are you sure you can handle the Helen Razer of the middle-aged blogging set?’ and he said, “Sure thing!”

    Anyway, patiently waiting for the truth to come out about other Central Coast Liberals with links to the 3 State Liberal MPs. Say no more, say no more.

  • 99
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    Well, the floor is open. Pitch a party, maybe you’ll pick someone up.

    I think the Zionist Atrocities Party has great potential.

  • 100
    silentmajority
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    I’ll take + 17% any day

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