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Redcliffe by-election: February 22

Saturday, February 22

Today’s the day, so I’m bumping this back to the top of the page. For a perspective on the campaign from someone who’s been following it more closely than I have, try Amy Remeikis of the Brisbane Times.

Friday, February 14

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll has Labor with a commanding 57-43 two-party lead from primary votes of 48% for Labor, 35% for the LNP, 6% for the Greens and 8% for “independents”, of which there are five. This is very likely an automated phone poll with a sample of about 500.

Wednesday, February 5

Time to bump this thread back to the top of the page for those wishing to discuss the campaign. The only particularly notable new information I have to provide is Antony Green‘s observation that the by-election timetable offers “the shortest period for postal and pre-poll voting that I have ever seen”, which is unlikely to have wholesome motivations.

Wednesday, January 15

Full results from the Lonergan poll: Yvette D’Ath (Labor) 53%; Kerri-Anne Dooley (LNP) 29%; John Marshall (Greens) 7%; Len Thomas (Independent) 5%; Gabriel Buckley (Independent) 3%; Talosaga McMahon (Independent) 2%.

Tuesday, January 14

The Guardian reports an automated phone poll of 891 respondents conducted from January 9-12 by Lonergan Research has Labor’s Yvette D’Ath headed for an easy victory with 53% of the primary vote. The only other detail provided in the report relates to questions concerning the most important issue, but I’ll hopefully be able to chase up the rest of the voting intention numbers tomorrow.

Monday, January 13

Antony Green on Twitter relates that February 22 has been set as the date for the by-election.

Thursday, December 19

I’m bumping this post up the batting order to bring news that a union-commissioned ReachTEL poll of 774 respondents conducted on Friday and Saturday had Labor on a handy lead of 42.1% to 35.3% on the primary vote, with the Palmer United Party on 8.6% and the Greens on 5.1%. That pans out to 54-46 to Labor based on the preference distribution from the 2012 election. This comes as the Liberal National Party announces its candidate will be Kerri-Anne Dooley, who was Family First’s candidate for the seat in 2012.

Thursday, November 28

Tony Moore of Fairfax reports that February 1 is looming as the likely date of both the Redcliffe state and Griffith federal by-elections, with Campbell Newman saying the election should be held after the Australia Day long weekend of January 26. Yvette D’Ath has confirmed she will run for Labor, while Jamie-Leigh Mason of the Redcliffe & Bayside Herald reports a number of names have been mentioned as possible Liberal National Party candidates, including Martin Hall, Hornibrook Bus Lines general manager and Redcliffe City Chamber of Commerce president; Michael Connolly, “organiser of a community rally for better government representation”; and Dean Teasdale, a property services company manager who run in Petrie at the 2010 federal election.

Wednesday, November 20

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Categories: Queensland By-Elections, Queensland Politics

66 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 |
  1. Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the Redcliffe by-election and Queensland state matters more generally. The thread below remains the “main” thread.

    by William Bowe on Nov 20, 2013 at 5:36 am

  2. Surely this is winnable for Labor with a good local candidate? The selection of Driscoll by the LNP was a slap in the face to the electors of Redcliffe.

    by Socrates on Nov 20, 2013 at 8:04 am

  3. The LNP seem to have done a good job in distancing themselves from Driscoll here so the ALP’s best hopes of coming back from the drubbing in the last poll will be the usual by-election swing away from the Gov & a slight drift back from the anti ALP mood of the last state poll. A good candidate will be essential but this will not be easy for the ALP.

    by kevjohnno on Nov 20, 2013 at 10:53 am

  4. It will be an interesting pointer to just how much skin Newman has lost since the election although there will no doubt be anger in the Redcliffe Electorate about Driscoll and his antics. It may be difficult to separate the factors in play. Realistically Labor should win this by-election with a decent sort of swing.

    In the unlikely event the LNP retains the seat it would be a very good result for Newman.

    by davidwh on Nov 20, 2013 at 11:11 am

  5. On reflection it may be the type of by-election where PUP will poll well. Should be interesting.

    by davidwh on Nov 20, 2013 at 11:14 am

  6. Just checked PUP got 10% of the primary vote in Petrie the federal seat that takes in Redcliffe so it wouldn’t surprise if they polled better given the circumstances surrounding this by-election.

    by davidwh on Nov 20, 2013 at 11:17 am

  7. My local informant tells me:

    * Voters are pissed off with Newman but not ready to return to Labor.
    * Labor does not in any case have a decent local candidate.
    * Yvette d’Ath is not interested, but might change her mind if the party twists her arm.
    * A good local PUP candidate or independent would win easily.

    by Psephos on Nov 20, 2013 at 1:03 pm

  8. Here is my Petrie map which identifies the booths by name.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2013/2013maps/petrie.shtml
    The really strong Liberal booth at Ballycara is a retirement village.

    by Psephos on Nov 20, 2013 at 1:08 pm

  9. As a Redcliffe local my read of the mood is similar to your informant’s Psephos, but I’not convinced they are ready for the PUP route yet. Newman’s & the LNPs’s actions to disown rather than to try to defend Driscoll ( barring a brief backing early in the affair) has limited the fallout to the LNP. Local issues, besides Driscoll himself , seem to be low key at the moment so a big enough swing back to the ALP seems doubtful to me but I live in hope. Good or bad candidates might make some difference.

    I wonder how much resources the parties are prepared to ‘waste’ on this poll. Local media is nearly non existant, just the local Murdoch advertising freebie , The Redcliffe Herald, which is not widely read. So effective advertising would need to be with Brisbane TV, radio & print media, which is of course expensive and not well targeted plus doorknocking & letterbox drops.

    by kevjohnno on Nov 20, 2013 at 3:29 pm

  10. It shouldn’t be forgotten that this by-election will be held under the OPV system. This will have some effect on the outcome unless there is a concerted campaign to encourage voters to cast a preference.

    My own State MP lost his seat in 2012 due to Greens preferences exhausting.

    At the recent Federal Election in Griffith at the booth I scrutineered, Labor received 90% of PUP’s preferences. Ditto the Greens.

    by feeney on Nov 20, 2013 at 6:19 pm

  11. If Newman’s distancing from Driscoll really has distanced the LNP from any fallout, then it is a salutory lesson to Labor on what should have been done in NSW over several individuals, rather than try to defend the indefensible and sinking the whole ship.

    by Socrates on Nov 20, 2013 at 8:50 pm

  12. Socrates, Newman has such a big majority he can afford to throw away MP’s without a care. Good for discipline too I suppose. The ALP hasn’t always had that luxury.

    Only time, and maybe this poll, will tell if I’m right about the fallout. It’s only the impression get talking to the politically disengaged people I know in the neighbourhood and down at the local. Labor will of course seek to remind voters of who foisted Driscoll on to them in the first place and will I’m sure find some sound bites from Newman praising Driscoll as a candidate but whether that will bite we’ll see.

    by kevjohnno on Nov 20, 2013 at 9:36 pm

  13. The difference was that Driscoll’s misbehaviour was all his own work, whereas the corruption of Obeid, Macdonald etc was entrenched in a large part of the NSW ALP. It was easy for Newman to give Driscoll the flick, but successive NSW Premiers found it impossible to cut out the cancer of corruption around Obeid.

    by Psephos on Nov 21, 2013 at 2:00 pm

  14. http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/former-federal-mp-yvette-dath-confirms-shell-seek-preselection-for-alp-in-redcliffe-by-election/story-fnii5v6w-1226767878292#mm-breached
    D’Ath is now running. That considerably improves Labor’s chances.

    by Psephos on Nov 25, 2013 at 3:09 pm

  15. This comes as the Liberal National Party announces its candidate will be Kerri-Anne Dooley, who was Family First’s candidate for the seat in 2012.

    this speaks volumes about how far tea party right the LNP continue to drift.

    by sustainable future on Dec 19, 2013 at 3:27 pm

  16. Preferences probably won’t flow quite like the 2012 election with the PUP Fed election overlays. At least according to our research

    The exhaustion rates are also an issue to working out an accurate TPP at the moment.

    The most accurate assessment is that the TPP is somewhere between about 53.5% and 57% to the ALP. It’s quite a spread leading into a by-election.

    Health popped up as one of the major issues in voting determination – so here’s the additional questions from the poll, including partisan ID cross-tabs and undecided voters https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/413511062580113409/photo/1/large

    by Possum Comitatus on Dec 19, 2013 at 3:39 pm

  17. Has PUP decided to run? They won’t run in Griffith and have stated they will concentrate on WA Senate and Tasmania.

    by ruawake on Dec 19, 2013 at 5:01 pm

  18. Answering my own question.

    The Palmer United Party will not contest the by-election.

    8.6% of the Primary up for grabs. ALP workin’ the shopping centres while Newman snoozes. :)

    by ruawake on Dec 19, 2013 at 5:47 pm

  19. Five candidates so far according to Antony Green

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2014/redcliffe/

    by docantk on Dec 19, 2013 at 9:10 pm

  20. I was part of this ReachTEL survey. I’m starting to think I’m on a ReachTEL panel as I keep getting surveyed. Does it matter much for accuracy if they keep ringing the same people?

    by kevjohnno on Dec 19, 2013 at 9:18 pm

  21. Palmer must be mad (well OK we already knew that). Two by-elections in his home state should be an absolute gift for him to build momentum. Queenslanders being what they are, he might even have won.

    by Psephos on Dec 20, 2013 at 12:08 pm

  22. 21

    He is focusing on the Tasmanian ans WA Senate rerun. For a minor party to focus on PR elections over single member elections is usually not a bad idea but I agree Palmer is stupid for not running in these by-elections. At the very least he should have run his candidate from September in Griffith and got his candidate from the equivalent Commonwealth seat to run in Redcliffe.

    by Tom the first and best on Dec 20, 2013 at 9:04 pm

  23. Palmer had a full colour bright yellow cover and back, with his Christmas letter on page 2 and a photo of his whole family excluding the new baby on page 3. The Commonwealth crest was at the top of the letter.

    Interestingly only if it is sent to his constituents would he be able to claim the printing under entitlements. Redcliffe is nowhere near Fairfax. Would have cost a fortune to print and distribute.

    by MsAdventure on Dec 21, 2013 at 12:42 am

  24. Sorry posted too soon. The brochure/Christmas letter was delivered into letterboxes in the State Electorate of Redcliffe.

    by MsAdventure on Dec 21, 2013 at 12:44 am

  25. Redcliffe is my in-law’s stomping ground. I’d be very surprised if Labor did not win this. Though socio-economically it’s more mixed than in the past, Labor’s vote has always had a pensioner and battler base. My in-laws report the seething about Driscoll wasn’t just about Driscoll, but regret that a decent local MP was sacrificed in the tide to remove the Bligh government.

    I’m not sure why Palmer would have a chance here. It’s vaguely contiguous with, but a much more settled, less development fixated and urban if not urbane community than the real coast.

    If Labor can’t win such natural territory, in a by-election no less, it should be euthanased.

    by Graeme on Dec 21, 2013 at 3:59 am

  26. Graeme, Lillian van Litsenburg might have been a decent member but she was invisible to most of the electorate. I doubt if 95% would even remember who she was if you said her name and told them she was their previous member, so I doubt if many are rueing her “sacrifice”. Luckily Yvette has a higher profile.

    by kevjohnno on Dec 21, 2013 at 11:41 am

  27. Of course Campbell Newman is not a power mad despot, and the closeness between he and his loyal subjects is touching. It must break his heart not to be able to be close to them all the time. No doubt the police insisted on these measures despite Campbell’s protests, because those nefarious bikies are angry at him for no reason at all.

    Taxpayers have footed the bill for almost $40,000 worth of security upgrades at Premier Campbell Newman's family home in the wake of the state government's crackdown on criminal motorcycle gangs.
    Fairfax Media can reveal improvements to Mr Newman's inner-city Windsor home, including upgrades to security screens, CCTV, external lighting, alarms, locksmith work and intercoms, have cost $38,925.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/taxpayers-spend-70000-improving-antibikie-politicians-homes-20131221-2zrqe.html#ixzz2o9CiySVS

    by Socrates on Dec 22, 2013 at 8:38 am

  28. Hi – FYI here’s a video containing basic contact information for the Redcliffe By-Election 2014 candidates thus far: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWnT7voT9DM

    by ikas asong on Dec 28, 2013 at 11:23 pm

  29. I’m not sure I see why Labor “desperately needs” an eighth seat. Is an eight-seat opposition vastly more effective than a seven-seat opposition? Yvette d’Ath would be an asset to any parliamentary party, but she won’t transform the parliamentary situation. Winning a by-election is always a boost for an opposition, but hardly decisive, as we saw when the Libs won the last Redcliffe by-election but then failed to win the following election, or to hold Redcliffe.

    by Psephos on Jan 13, 2014 at 4:09 pm

  30. Labors Toxic

    LNP is a bit on the nose

    Indi may get up on preferences.

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 13, 2014 at 6:06 pm

  31. Do they become an ‘official’ Opposition with 8 seats?

    by Swing Required on Jan 13, 2014 at 9:12 pm

  32. No they already have that status.

    Sean, we’ve already had a poll showing Labor winning. By-elections are usually about giving a whack to the government. Newman will get a whack. We saw what happened in NSW. Labor is still seriously on the nose there, but got a huge swing to win Miranda. I think most of Qld Labor’s disaster was due to Bligh breaking her promise on asset sales. With Bligh gone, Labor seems to be recovering quite well, with a lot of help from Newman.

    by Psephos on Jan 13, 2014 at 10:43 pm

  33. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/14/labor-leads-poll-in-brisbane-by-election-dominated-by-public-health-policy?CMP=fb_gu
    “A new Lonergan Research poll of 891 voters found Labor’s Redcliffe candidate Yvette D’Ath – who lost the federal seat in the same area at last year’s election – on a huge 53% of the primary vote, well ahead of the LNP candidate and former Family First candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley.
    More than half (59%) said they thought Campbell Newman’s LNP government had made the state’s health system worse – including 10% of those who said they would vote for the LNP. Only 23% thought the LNP government, elected in a landslide victory in 2012, had made the health system better.”

    by docantk on Jan 14, 2014 at 4:56 pm

  34. ABC radio SMS Poll January 14 has Labor on 66% of the primary vote.
    Not sure of the methodology though!

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2014/01/sms-poll-redcliffe-by-election-who-would-you-vote-for-if-the-poll-were-today.html

    by docantk on Jan 17, 2014 at 12:05 pm

  35. Writs finally issued today: Nominations close 9 days before the election!

    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/2014stateByElections.aspx?id=11263

    by docantk on Jan 28, 2014 at 9:22 pm

  36. This is slanted to help the LNP as a large number of voters will be postal as Labor has been running a strong PV campaign. Many of the postal voters won’t get their ballot in time let alone getting them back postmarked before the 22nd. Also only 5 days of pre-poll, this will disadvantage shift workers esp Qld Health employees. Very cunning is Campbell Newman.

    by MsAdventure on Jan 28, 2014 at 10:20 pm

  37. MsAdventure @36

    Campbell’s days of cunningness is running out. I belive he will call an election for late this year instead of next year. He is in a pickle as the statewide swing to Labor will no doubt be greater than 5% and that means he is in a position to likely lose his own seat.

    It was so dumb of him to go into Ashgrove. He will pay for his stupidity.

    by Unitary State on Jan 29, 2014 at 1:53 am

  38. Unless Labor starts really gaining in the polls, I can’t imagine it being too difficult for Newman to find a safer seat to be parachuted into. He is the premier, after all.

    And if it does start to look likely that the government will lose the election (which is the only situation would, IMO, see Newman recontesting Ashgrove instead of another seat), Newman may well already have been rolled and have resigned from the seat.

    by Asha Leu on Feb 5, 2014 at 3:12 pm

  39. Parliamentary Clerk Neil Laurie stood before parliament on Tuesday to announce Mr Driscoll had paid his debt.
    “I advise that on 22 November 2013, I received from Mr Driscoll the sum of $90,000 being full payment of the fines,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/scott-driscoll-pays-90000-fine-to-queensland-parliament-20140211-32ecb.html#ixzz2szNIDH1L

    by ruawake on Feb 11, 2014 at 4:36 pm

  40. LNP scores a reverse donkey at the ballot draw, ALP in the middle

    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/Redcliffe2014/candidates.html

    by docantk on Feb 13, 2014 at 5:29 pm

  41. Took part in a Galaxy automated phone poll tonight.
    Substantive questions were voting intention in Redcliffe poll, affect of Driscoll on vote, whether health services in area had got worse, same or better,and regardless of current or recent voting which party was closer to my outlook.

    Probably trying to quantify the Driscoll effect.

    by kevjohnno on Feb 13, 2014 at 8:45 pm

  42. Even ignoring the polling, Labor really should expect to get this one. They should all give up and join the Katter Party if they don’t.

    Re reverse donkeys: I think I mentioned this on another thread, but I believe drawing last on the ballot hurts you more in terms of lack of proximity to preference sources and not getting the semi-donkeys down the paper, than you gain from those who donkey from bottom up. I think the rate of bottom-up donkeying would be only a fraction of a percent.

    by Kevin Bonham on Feb 15, 2014 at 3:24 am

  43. I agree with events since christmas this has moved from winnable to likely for Labor. A good local grassroots campaign should see it over the line.

    by Socrates on Feb 15, 2014 at 10:46 am

  44. Link to Galaxy results
    http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/galaxy-poll-ahead-of-redcliffe-byelection-reveals-primary-support-for-lnp-has-dropped-since-election/story-fnii5v6w-1226827699494

    According to Galaxy, the LNP’s primary vote has fallen from 49.2 per cent to 35 per cent while Labor’s vote leapt by more than 17 points to 48 per cent.
    Independent Len Thomas snared 8 per cent, more than the Greens’ 6 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads 57 per cent to the LNP’s 43 per cent.
    Such a result would see Labor’s Yvette D’Ath enjoy a margin slightly higher than Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk’s 6.9 per cent.
    The poll revealed 42 per cent of Redcliffe residents were less likely to vote LNP because of Mr Driscoll, who regularly did not appear in Parliament and was caught failing to declare income from a community group.
    However, 45 per cent of respondents were not influenced by Mr Driscoll, including more than one in four Labor supporters.

    by ruawake on Feb 15, 2014 at 5:17 pm

  45. ... However, 45 per cent of respondents were not influenced by Mr Driscoll, including more than one in four Labor supporters.

    People like me who because I was going to vote for Labor any way honestly answered that Driscoll had not affected my voting intention.

    by kevjohnno on Feb 15, 2014 at 6:10 pm

  46. Firies in Redcliffe today push back against Newmanism. pic.twitter.com/wMG9hsvQ97

    by ruawake on Feb 15, 2014 at 6:50 pm

  47. ... However, 45 per cent of respondents were not influenced by Mr Driscoll, including more than one in four Labor supporters.

    The Driscoll behaviour only has to influence one tenth of the previous LNP voters to give Labor a 5% swing. Labor should remind voters that the LNP was warned about Driscoll before picking him, but they ignored it.

    by Socrates on Feb 16, 2014 at 9:51 am

  48. Robo-polled again by different mob. Voting intention, approve disapprove of Newman, Palaszczuk, D’Ath, Dooley, and vote last election. People are certainly spending money on polls for this by-election.

    by kevjohnno on Feb 16, 2014 at 2:10 pm

  49. Let’s put the Red back in Redcliffe! (I’m surprised Labor didn’t use that slogan :) )

    by Psephos on Feb 22, 2014 at 1:08 pm

  50. ABC: “Redcliffe by-election a litmus test”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3950241.htm

    Fairfax: “Redcliffe by-election no litmus test”.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/redcliffe-byelection-no-litmus-test-20140221-3384q.html

    by William Bowe on Feb 22, 2014 at 2:27 pm

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