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Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

As other pollsters find support for Labor trending downwards, Newspoll breaks ranks with the Abbott government’s worst poll result since it came to power.

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

1845
  • 1
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, February 24, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Calm down. It was a long weekend somewhere, wasn’t it?

    You know, the poor old bastards who are stuck home, manning the phones, are Labor voters.

    And the rich bastards are out skiing somewhere, either water or snow.

    That has to be it.

    Had nothing to do with the time lag between all those job loss announcements with SPC, Holden, Toyota, alumina plants, refineries.

    All the green power initiatives quashed by shonky medicos and Energy Company CEOs.

    The NBN’s getting castrated by Abbott’s lackey Turnbull.

    Nothing to to with the “transparent and open government promised” turning into an opaque colour of indeterminate nature.

    Nothing to do with an asylum seeker killed on Manus. And another one shot in the buttocks. And another 60-odd injured. While all the guards are well.

    Nothing to do with the dickhead Hockey looking like a laughing stock against IMF pressie Lagarde, for all the more sophisticated.

    And so on, and so forth.

    Yep, davidwh, a trainwreck. But since when has that ever stopped the Coalition from getting an over 40% primary?

    Never.

    Rupert’s playing. He’s got nothing else to do, other than rattle round in his new apartment with a youngish masseuse apparently, to distract us from the News Ltd Corp getting thrashed at the Old Bailey.

    Next week it will all return to normal. The Coalition will be back in the 40s, the status quo will be just that. And all will be well with the world.

  • 2
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, February 24, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Calm down. It was a long weekend somewhere, wasn’t it?

    You know, the poor old bastards who are stuck home, manning the phones, are Labor voters.

    And the rich bastards are out skiing somewhere, either water or snow.

    That has to be it.

    Had nothing to do with the time lag between all those job loss announcements with SPC, Holden, Toyota, alumina plants, refineries.

    All the green power initiatives quashed by shonky medicos and Energy Company CEOs.

    The NBN’s getting castrated by Abbott’s lackey Turnbull.

    Nothing to to with the “transparent and open government promised” turning into an opaque colour of indeterminate nature.

    Nothing to do with an asylum seeker killed on Manus. And another one shot in the buttocks. And another 60-odd injured. While all the guards are well.

    Nothing to do with the dickhead Hockey looking like a laughing stock against IMF pressie Lagarde, for all the more sophisticated.

    And so on, and so forth.

    Yep, davidwh, a trainwreck. But since when has that ever stopped the Coalition from getting an over 40% primary?

    Never.

    Rupert’s playing. He’s got nothing else to do, other than rattle round in his new apartment with a youngish masseuse apparently, to distract us from the News Ltd Corp getting thrashed at the Old Bailey.

    Next week it will all return to normal. The Coalition will be back in the 40s, the status quo will be just that. And all will be well with the world.

  • 3
    kezza2
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Just to make sure you got my missive, it’s here three times (if the one posted on the other thread counts).

    Sorry, don’t know why this is happening.

    I’ll try to be more less enthusiastic as I press the “Post Comment” button in future.

    Gawd!

  • 4
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Wow! That’s gotta be a rogue. I support Labor, but that’s gotta be a rogue.

  • 5
    Work To Rule
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    Still make no sense to me that the LNP can poll as high as 46. I have to venture over to the alternative reality that is The Australian to understand.

  • 6
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    I hope the Coca-cola/Cadbury Minister for Obesity, Sen Nash contributed a bit to the figures.

    She is bought by Big Sugar which is utter corruption in a Minister for “Health”.

  • 7
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    This poll is obviously some sneaky plan of Murdoch’s to lull us all into a false sense of security. We’re being played, I tell you.

  • 8
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Sorry, don’t know why this is happening.

    I have had issues with pages on Pollbludger loading properly of late. Am playing with VPN at the moment (hullo from my IP in Sweden!! :) ) and have been putting it down to that.

  • 9
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    I’m a bit more sceptical of this one than I was of the Nielsen. Simply because it doesn’t really match the general direction of the other polling (and the general qualitative mood of things) but I could be wrong. As weak as it sounds, I’d like to see other polls do this before I accept it.

  • 10
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Whenever I open Crikey it comes up with an error message 404 but can still access Bludger, not the main page.

  • 11
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    It has not been a long weekend anywhere in Australia this weekend.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_holidays_in_Australia

  • 12
    Asha Leu
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    Holy shit.

  • 13
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    DN:

    This poll is obviously some sneaky plan of Murdoch’s to lull us all into a false sense of security. We’re being played, I tell you.

    Well, for those of a tinfoil hat persuasion, it’s easy to imagine that a good ALP poll is needed by News every now and then just so that when it reverts to something more “real” next time – say the next Newspoll shows 51/49 to the ALP – they can paint the probably illusory 3 point shift back to the LNP as a collapse in the ALP vote or a crisis for Shorten’s leadership or whatever the desired anti-ALP message du jour is.

  • 14
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Carey:

    Who is your gravatar? From here it looks like Tony Blair.

  • 15
    kezza2
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    Earlier, victoria posted a link to John Singleton’s $750,000 donations to failed candidates in the 2013 election.

    This bit caught my eye:

    Mr Thomson received just 4 per cent of the vote in Dobell.

    AEC records show he received just one single donation of $2000.

    He spent $8100 on campaign advertising materials.

    Under parliamentary rules introduced by the Howard government, Mr Thomson will receive a one-off "resettlement allowance" of $95,000 for recontesting his seat rather than retiring from politics.

    Hah. Thomson re-contested to help pay his legal bills. And why not? When a prolific nose-in-trougher like Howard set it up.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/john-singleton-blew-750000-on-two-losing-candidates-as-election-spending-revealed-20140224-33bll.html#ixzz2uFDCC8yR

  • 16
    Asha Leu
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-2) ALP 39 (+4) GRN 12 (-2) #auspol

    ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Greens Primary is 10 (-2), not 12 (-2). #auspol

  • 17
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    It’s the widening.

  • 18
    Asha Leu
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 38 (-3) Shorten 37 (+4) #auspol

  • 19
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Deblonay

    Have not seen the troubling program.

    But would like to see what the troublesome Clive will do in the Senate.

    Another note. Xenophon is sponsoring a Legislative candidate in South Australia.

    Any one I have chatted to will vote XO candidate with no thought whatsoever.

    As a Boothby/Bright citizen, I am alarmed.
    1684
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Shut the fuck up, Mick.

    Assuming William has departed.

  • 20
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    As weak as it sounds, I’d like to see other polls do this before I accept it.

    Sort of agree, but, i’d refer you to:

    Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

    So Essential, with its apparent bias towards stability, also had the ALP inching ahead recently. I think Newspoll is more volatile than Essential but while the magnitude of this is a bit dubious i’m cool with the direction. :)

  • 21
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    Wow! the Greens lost over 16% of their vote in this Newspoll!

  • 22
    kezza2
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    Tom the first and best
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:06 am | PERMALINK
    It has not been a long weekend anywhere in Australia this weekend.

    That was a joke, Joyce.

  • 23
    bug1
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    Newspoll only release a poll if its extreme enough to start a conversation.

  • 24
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    15

    Thomson, if I remember correctly, fell a vote or two short of the magical 4% and thus did not get the per vote funding.

    The “resettlement allowance” is essentially like redundancy for ordinary workers. I believe it is only paid to post Latham reform MPs because they get ordinary/public service super. It is not particularly out of line for someone on a parliamentary backbencher`s salary, who gets retrenched after 6 years in job.

  • 25
    lefty e
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    More to follow.

    I certainly hope so.

  • 26
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    Fine Tom TFAB

  • 27
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    Rogue but it does look like the arse is beginning to fall out of Abbott’s leadership ratings. Need more polling

  • 28
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    I’ll believe the tide has turned when I see the Libs reduced to just one WA senate seat in a couple of months.

  • 29
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    I’ll believe the tide has turned when I see the Libs reduced to just one WA senate seat in a couple of months.

    Even in a landslide defeat for the Coalition, WA would still furnish them with two Senators.

  • 30
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:23 am | Permalink

    I’ll believe the tide has turned when I see the Libs reduced to just one WA senate seat in a couple of months.

    I would be stunned if they got less than three, there is an outside chance they would lose the third to an equally incompetent redneck party, but there is no chance in hell they will be back at 1. If Labor can get 2 and the greens 1 it will be a major miracle.

  • 31
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    Deblonay

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/10270718/Patrick-Leigh-Fermor-his-final-journey.html

  • 32
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    Yeah, I take your point, I meant one out of the five up for grabs.

  • 33
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    Newspoll was polling at the time all hell broke loose with Morrison admitting the refugee died under our control. Would hope that lost the Libs a few votes. Besides last week was a disaster for the government with Manus, the Lost Navy incidents, 10,000 privacy stuff ups, talk of Medibank co-payments, talk of raising the retirement age, talk of asset sales etc and so on.

    Had to be one of the worst week’s ever for a government.

  • 34
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    I’ll believe the tide has turned when I see the Libs reduced to just one WA senate seat in a couple of months.

    You’ll be waiting for a long time then.

  • 35
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    I’m not a great believer, Confessions.

  • 36
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    Carey:

    Who is your gravatar? From here it looks like Tony Blair.

    It’s Peter Mannion from The Thick of It – if ever I was a politician, I think I’d end up being like him (except I wouldn’t be a Tory.)

  • 37
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    Would hope that lost the Libs a few votes.

    isn’t killing ‘transferees’ supposed to raise their vote?

  • 38
    Darn
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    I’m with Gorilla – with Nielsen at one end and Newspoll the other the most likely state of play is somewhere around 51/49 to the ALP.

    That theory overlooks the fact that the 52/48 from Neilsen seemed very counter intuitive at the time and very much against the general state of play – especially the 44% pv to the Libs. I agree that 54/46 the other way does seem a little too generous to labor but I’d be surprised if they are not doing significantly better than 51/49 at the moment.

  • 39
    kezza2
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    Tom the first and best
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:16 am | PERMALINK
    15

    Thomson, if I remember correctly, fell a vote or two short of the magical 4% and thus did not get the per vote funding.

    The “resettlement allowance” is essentially like redundancy for ordinary workers. I believe it is only paid to post Latham reform MPs because they get ordinary/public service super. It is not particularly out of line for someone on a parliamentary backbencher`s salary, who gets retrenched after 6 years in job.

    Sure, but it means that you don’t even have to reach the “magical” number to get a payout. As long as you’re re-contesting the seat rather than retiring.

    That is, according to the link, Thomson put up just over $10,000, $2000 of which wasn’t his own, to reap $95,000.

    Centre would have his tongue hanging out to get that sort of return.

    Anyway, now we know why Thomson re-contested Dobell. It was in his interest to do so. Win or lose.

    I now understand why so many losers re-contest their seats.It has nothing to do with benefits to do with constituents, but everything to do with feathering one’s own nest – for the future. Nothing to do with superannuation.

  • 40
    kezza2
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    Tom the first and best
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:16 am | PERMALINK
    15

    Thomson, if I remember correctly, fell a vote or two short of the magical 4% and thus did not get the per vote funding.

    The “resettlement allowance” is essentially like redundancy for ordinary workers. I believe it is only paid to post Latham reform MPs because they get ordinary/public service super. It is not particularly out of line for someone on a parliamentary backbencher`s salary, who gets retrenched after 6 years in job.

    Sure, but it means that you don’t even have to reach the “magical” number to get a payout. As long as you’re re-contesting the seat rather than retiring.

    That is, according to the link, Thomson put up just over $10,000, $2000 of which wasn’t his own, to reap $95,000.

    Centre would have his tongue hanging out to get that sort of return.

    Anyway, now we know why Thomson re-contested Dobell. It was in his interest to do so. Win or lose.

    I now understand why so many losers re-contest their seats.It has nothing to do with benefits to do with constituents, but everything to do with feathering one’s own nest – for the future. Nothing to do with superannuation.

  • 41
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    confessions since you are here I needed to apologise for confusing you. You thought I was defending Milne or one of the green senators just because on this occasion I thought they were right. Sorry if my posts weren’t clear, I wasn’t defending them it just happens they were right on this point. And that is no big deal a stopped clock is right twice a day.

  • 42
    Darn
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    Newspoll was polling at the time all hell broke loose with Morrison admitting the refugee died under our control. Would hope that lost the Libs a few votes. Besides last week was a disaster for the government with Manus, the Lost Navy incidents, 10,000 privacy stuff ups, talk of Medibank co-payments, talk of raising the retirement age, talk of asset sales etc and so on.

    Had to be one of the worst week’s ever for a government

    And all completely of their own doing. Peta will not be pleased.

  • 43
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    WWP I don’t believe people feel that other than a few people who should look at themselves with shame.

  • 44
    bug1
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    There is also a morgan poll out, which has ALP down to 50.5 (down 1.5%), poll certainly are all over the place.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5449-morgan-poll-february-24-2014-201402240425

  • 45
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    I now understand why so many losers re-contest their seats.It has nothing to do with benefits to do with constituents, but everything to do with feathering one’s own nest – for the future. Nothing to do with superannuation.

    It was very stupid to destroy their superannuation schemes, the sooner we can entice 1/2 of both sides to retire the better we will all be. If we have to pay for democracy then that is the price.

    I get sick of people who want politicians of the highest calibre, policy outcomes of the very first order, all the expense and stress of running in elections and being in the public eye, and well lets pay them so little only already wealthy people can run. You want a good democracy you got to pay for it.

    Anyway I’m off before the peace and inner balance of a superb yoga session dissolves into grumpiness.

  • 46
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    People who should look at themselves with shame never do.

    That’s why the Liberals do so well.

  • 47
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    WWP I don’t believe people feel that other than a few people who should look at themselves with shame.

    I hope you are right but I have yet to see a good explanation for our collection and ongoing lurch to the far right and now beyond in relation to people who get here on boats that doesn’t involve an irrational and unreasonable fear that is so close to racism we might as well just call it racism.

  • 48
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    ‘WWP I don’t believe people feel that other than a few people who should look at themselves with shame.’

    What does that mean?

  • 49
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    Carey:

    Would never have picked that.

  • 50
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    Besides last week was a disaster for the government.....

    I thought the conventional wisdom was that it takes two or three weeks for “events” to show up in the polling??

    So that would make this debacle for the Fibs attributable to SPC, Toyota…..

    Hey, on that reasoning they have a whole new world of pain to come!! :)

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