Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. Bugler

    yes, once an idea’s fixed, people don’t want to change it.

    I often find – when explaining policy, not even arguing it – that people don’t actually listen to what I’m saying, but respond to what they assume I’m saying.

    In other words, their views are so entrenched that they can’t respond to the actual point being made, so they respond to one they can.

    (The most classic case of this was a council meeting I once attended. Everyone in the community assumed the council was going to vote a certain way. When the council didn’t, several people got up and argued as if they had…)

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:23 am

  2. poroti

    The dud packed front bench of the coalition is a result of politics rather than pay rates.

    If the job was that desirable, better quality candidates – with the same politics -would have spent the time and money to knock them off.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:26 am

  3. Was wondering did any of the TV channels report Newspoll,?I don’t watch them

    by mari on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:28 am

  4. guytaur

    I think Socrates has a point. Just look at the talent you get in volunteer organisation.

    Examples, please?

    Again, in the volunteer organisation’s I’m involved in, the only exceptional talent we ever got was where the person was allowed to use their company’s resources to do the job…

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:29 am

  5. The boning of Medicare might be the Death Star circling Abbott.

    Behind paywall, but the AFR reporting that in year 4 of the upcoming budget ie after the next election, Medicare co-payments are included. And the amounts?

    $6 per visit for Joe average
    $36 per visit for wealthy (cop that aspirationals)
    Plus no more bulk billing of pathology

    And weasel words from Abbott. Before last election, “no cuts to Health and Education”. In a speech last night, we need to “stop the growth” in Health and Education.

    Oh, and on the jobs front, Qantas to announce the axing of 5,000 jobs on Thursday.

    by sprocket_ on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:29 am

  6. An interesting comment from an Indonesian pollie. The fun may not have even started for PMBO and Bishop.

    “WE didn’t much enjoy being part of your election campaign and you won’t much enjoy being part of our election campaign.”

    So says a very senior Indonesian, looking forward to parliamentary elections, as well as possibly two rounds of presidential elections, in Indonesia over the next eight months.

    Last week in Indonesia there was a kind of open season on Australia. Every single day the media, often enough on the front page, seemed to be running stories disobliging to Australia, and a range of Indonesian politicians and media commentators lined up to give us a whack.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/indonesias-war-of-words/story-e6frg6z6-1226836349520#

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:29 am

  7. mari

    In their political segment 24 just did. It was the last thing mentioned.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:30 am

  8. He is a bully who got lucky, not a leader.

    A very good way of putting it. As I have said before, to me he is just an attack dog masquerading as a PM.

    by Darn on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:39 am

  9. zoomster

    You are confusing effectiveness with talent. I fully agree about resources.

    I agree that resources to do the job counts. I was just highlighting its the whole ethos of service that counts most.

    Its why Labor has good people and you notice the bad. From the outside looking in the “in it for the money” is the exception and not the rule.

    Socrates point is increase salaries and you change the mix. For my part I think that means not letting salaries diminish in real terms.

    I agree its the expenses part that needs reform of some kind as that is where we are seeing the bad behaviour

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:39 am

  10. Perhaps newspoll is delibertly biased against the government (whoever they are), rather than biased against ALP (as the last few eyars suggested).

    by bug1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:39 am

  11. “@George_Roberts: An Indonesian military source has confirmed another orange lifeboat carrying asylum seekers has turned up on the Java coast.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:39 am

  12. cud chewer@146

    Now, little by little, people on the street are hearing the whispers, realising that fibre is the only viable future option, and wondering why the Liberals are so hell bent on wasting billions on something that will have to be replaced.

    Much of Armidale NSW has NBN. Now I hear that the people who have NBN past their door will have to migrate to NBN for their telephone service – the copper is being phased out.

    I am out of town, but I have fixed wireless (25Mb/5Mb nominal, more like 20/4.5 most of the time) and VOIP.

    The VOIP is great, better clarity, less noise, the opposite of what I expected. And the cost is way, way down. I am paying half what I was for eight times faster internet and better telephone service.

    by don on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:42 am

  13. Just to give people an idea of how hot it’s been here, I had a hen go broody only ten days ago…and she’s already hatched an egg.

    Normally the incubation period is 21 days.

    I always leave one egg in the nest to encourage laying. She’s obviously been sleeping in the nest (and thus kept the egg warm at night) but it’s been hot enough during the day (up until she went broody) to keep the egg developing!

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:42 am

  14. Morning all.

    WA Liberals have been put on notice they will be expected to throw their resources and manpower into defending the party's three Senate seats in the re-run election.

    In a closed-door meeting with the State's MPs and senators in Canberra yesterday, Prime Minister Tony Abbott confirmed the fresh poll will be held before what is expected to be a brutal Budget is handed down on May 13.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/21683111/libs-aim-to-retain-all-senators/

    by confessions on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:43 am

  15. The points i used to make about the Gillard government and loss of public support now apply in spades to the coalition.

    The best analogy i can think of is like cutting down a tree with an ax. The first blow has little impact and the tree will recover fine if left alone. Same true for the next 4-9 blows. BUT if the tree is ringbarked it is terminal and when the cuts become do deep that the tree is so week/thin it falls. As the cut in the tree deepens the impact of each new blow escalates.

    Now it the case of the Abbott government, it was I think already quite weak in that the public had no love for Abbott but the Labor tree was too damaged.

    Since the election the blows have been coming thick and strong and generally of their OWN making. I fully believe this newspoll (or at least most of it). I suspect that much of the shift is in Victoria.

    My own sort of “rule of thumb” is that governments/people fall if they take 30 or so blows, without sufficient time to recover. Now Abbott improved a little over Xmas because nothing happened, so there was a period of recovery. January and February for Abbott have been pretty much like Jan and Feb 2013 for Gillard. Bad actions following bad news.
    Here is my list of “blows.” I am sure I will have forgotton some

    A Integrity
    1. Travel rorts
    2. SPC versus Coca Cola
    3. Brandis raid on Lawyers
    4. Royal Commissions (they just look mean and tricky and win no friends really
    5. Fiona Nash

    5 more to go before terminal

    B Leadership/policy
    1. Jobs non policy
    2. Medicare scare
    3. Ending the age of entitlement (scary)
    4. All about wages falling
    5. Pensions
    Once again five more scary policies and the government is terminal

    C Incompetence
    1. Indonesia spy scandel(s) and the obvious stuff up of relations
    2. China relations upset (the public may not always see this one)
    3. Navy without a GPS or map – Big one
    4. Incursion into Indonesian waters and failure to respond
    5. Orange lifeboats – looks silly
    6. Burn story – blame the ABC – looks silly and weak
    7. Blame the navy Bad bad look
    8. Manus the riot itself
    9. Manus Morrison’s lie Big one
    10. Bishop off to Cambodia. Bad, bad look and reminds the public of Gillard/Bowen off the Malaysia

    I think this is above 10 so terminal. However 7 of them are due to the “not a wimp” so by sacrificing him Abbott still has a “get out of jail” card, which would allow him seven more stuff ups.

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:44 am

  16. Love this bit of unconscious snobbery —

    ..he's seen people from all walks of life become victims of the drug ice, including business owners #iceinquiry

    Business owners! Drug addicts! Who would ever have thought the two could connect in any way??

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:45 am

  17. Does the WA Premier have to advise the Governor to issue the writs for a new Senate election (I apologise, I haven’t been paying that much attention to it all.)

    by Carey Moore on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:47 am

  18. fran

    I can understand ‘the regime’ (why do you insist on using that ridiculous phrase?) losing votes due to AS policy, but how do you explain the drop in the Greens vote?

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:48 am

  19. sprocket

    I would like to see a wide-ranging (not wide-ranting) discussion on PB about the pros and cons of bulk-billing for pathology, including a definition of the term. It is my understanding that the pathologist/company agrees to a lower, government-standard price to facilitate instant refunds.

    Does “no bulk billing” therefore result in price rises?

    And who stands to gain?

    by lizzie on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:51 am

  20. I think Abbott’s team is doing a fantastic job. Another two years of this then large amounts of election sweeteners will change things around. As yet the much talked about LNP plan that was ready to go prior to the election has still to be implemented due to Labor and the Greens obfuscation. The jobs will flow from it, health care will be truly universal enabling every one to continuing to work to 75 the world will be a much better place with the well defined world growth agreement now announced and the boats will increase to this utopian paradise in the pacific.

    by pom on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:51 am

  21. There should be a ? in my previous post.

    by Carey Moore on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:51 am

  22. Here in Vic, we are awaiting announcement from Abbott as to what the feds will do to help us out of our jobs funk. As has been noted, looks likely to be more funding for roads. I would be very surprised if any funding would be made available for public transport improvements.
    The question is will Victorians buy what Abbott is going to sell to the Napthine Govt?

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:51 am

  23. Regarding asylum seekers and the orange lifeboats we issue them; a couple of things the smugglers could do which just illustrates the stupidity of it all;

    1: turn the lifeboat around again after they have turned around by the navy and head straight back to Oz. It will become farcical very quickly as it becomes a game of cat and mouse.
    2: Send even larger boats with more people on them and simply swamp the navy and their orange boats. These lifeboats don’t seem all that large so if they intercept a boat with 200 people on it, where are they going to put them all?
    3: Use the lifeboats to send AS back to Oz in them.
    A sort of “thanks for the free boat” type of thing.

    As i say the whole situation is a joke and easily gamed if they put their minds to it.

    by Henry on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:53 am

  24. Lizzie

    I am confused about the medicare co oayment. At my GP, only aged pensioners, health care card holders And children under 16 yo are buik billed. For the rest of us a standard consultation costs $60. I believe the rebate from medicare is around 28.00.
    Does this mean that the govt going to seek a $6 co payment from pensioners and health care card holders?

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:54 am

  25. Good to see the libs are building up political capital before direct action, the PPL, etc etc.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:55 am

  26. The Liberals' tactical planning coincides with a new poll that shows businessman Clive Palmer's party might fail to replicate the success it had last time.

    The Patterson Research Group survey is the first to be released since the High Court confirmed last week West Australians would go back to the polls because the loss of 1370 ballot papers wrecked the result of the Senate election.

    The survey, held before the court's decision, found almost one in 10 voters were undecided on who they would support. But when undecided voters are allocated a voting intention, the poll shows a swing to incumbents.

    Though Liberals fear losing their third seat won by Linda Reynolds, the party's primary support has surged to 45 per cent, up from 39 per cent on election day. Labor has risen five percentage points to 32 per cent, while the Greens have gone from 9 per cent to 12 per cent.

    However, the Palmer United Party's support has plunged from 5 per cent to one per cent, according to the poll. The party claimed a seat on the original count but narrowly lost it in the re-count.

    Interesting. I would’ve thought PUP would be the biggest beneficiary of a fresh vote, but if this survey is any indication, perhaps not.

    by confessions on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:55 am

  27. As far as I heard, there wasn’t one word, not a hint, nary a whisper re. the Newspoll on the Chris Uhlmann Show (aka ABC Radio’s “AM”) this morning.

    He was more interested in the exclusive “Man-Bites-Dog” story of how the Business Council supports the government’s employment and economic plans.

    Gee, Chris… who knew?

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:56 am

  28. Henry

    I find collecting asylum seekers and putting them on orange life boats and directing them towards indonesia as the most obnoxious thing I have ever heard a govt do. If I were indonesia, i would be giving Oz the finger.

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:56 am

  29. Carey:

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/02/wa-senate-re-election-what-happens-next.html#more

    by confessions on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:57 am

  30. BB

    If it were the other way around, you would be hearing about the result ad nauseam. Honestly, does the ABC think we are dim?

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:58 am

  31. No mention of Newspoll at ABC news online. But apparently the death of some never-before-heard-of Ghostbusters star is a major news story.

    by confessions on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:00 am

  32. @jonkudelka: Stop The Wimps http://t.co/eFmv5dcpI0 today’s cartoon in the Oz

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:01 am

  33. Thanks confessions

    by Carey Moore on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:01 am

  34. Armed gangs ‘let in’ to our detention centres.

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-24/armed-locals-let-into-manus-island-detention-centre-witness/5281012

    Hmm, I predict the closure of Manus, massive lawsuits against G4S and the Ausrtalian government.

    There’s no putting sugar on this: Morrison is pretty well screwed here. Even if he stays as Minister, its clear he’s incompetent. All bark, no nous.

    by lefty e on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:01 am

  35. CENTRE – Kevin Bonham made the good point that this poll might not be a rogue because Shorten’s approval has slipped since the last poll.
    I wonder if everybody rescuing SPC while Tony had his finger up his a… really made a few people wake up.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:01 am

  36. Agree with you victoria re: asylum seekers.
    the only way it can ever work is for a regional solution.
    Unfortunately Abbott and co do not have the wit to arrange one.

    by Henry on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:02 am

  37. Has mod lib shown up yet to explain fo us dimwits what this poll means. :D

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:02 am

  38. Apologies if already posted. I am curious as to what the Labor strategy is

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/shortens-question-and-whimper-time-sees-libs-pull-out-all-the-jocks-20140224-33d56.html

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:03 am

  39. BB

    and that interview with Singleton was so boring that even Uhlmann stopped listening..

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:05 am

  40. Didn’t hear Franny mention Newspoll at all in her chat with Paul Bongiorno. Missed the start of it so it could have been mentioned there but don’t think so.
    Bongiorno, who i like, is as bad a mumbler as old coke bottles actually. There yas a time last week when he was literally tongue tied and Fran had to bail him out.

    by Henry on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:05 am

  41. Parliamentary Budget Office to do independent review of Government “stacked”Commission of Audit report.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-urges-review-of-commission-of-audits-controversial-report-20140224-33d4w.html

    smh article reads like a great Dorothy Dix question from Sam Dastyari

    by milenko on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:08 am

  42. Seriously….

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/customs-may-cut-hundreds-of-jobs-after-minister-says-no-to-deficit-20140224-33d4v.html

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:10 am

  43. victoria

    LNP job creation at work.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:11 am

  44. guytaur

    I guess the coalition are spending so much money in OSB, that they have to cut the budget

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:13 am

  45. The media are predicting a “knife-edge” result in the Senate re-vote in WA

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:13 am

  46. victoria @177

    Indonesia could well be on the way to doing just that as their elections heat up. A recent Op-Ed from the Jakarta Post from the @155 link.

    “Australian warships will now be frequenting Indonesian waters. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s diplomatic legacy is now vividly clear: a tradition of diplomatic spinelessness and an Australian bully to the south well intent on trampling over Indonesian sovereignty. Although Sukarno was the one who coined the pejorative phrase ‘a nation of coolies and a coolie among nations’, it was obviously Yudhoyono who managed to craft that catchphrase into a diplomatic reality for Indonesians today. Yudhoyono’s tuck-tail diplomacy and Tony Abbott’s bull-headed arrogance is the ultimate recipe for a diplomatic disaster.”

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:14 am

  47. victoria @ 191

    How does that help to “control our borders”?
    There are so many foods, plants and disease-carrying animals that could do far more harm to Australia if smuggled here than a few illegal immigrants.

    Oh, forgot, Abbott’s lot don’t “do” environmental safeguards, do they :(

    by lizzie on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:15 am

  48. poroti

    Obviously there will be a new leadership team in Indonesia within six months. Will be interesting to see how they handle our Australian bully

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:16 am

  49. Carey

    Really, it’s the perks that are the problem. Expenses should be better regulated with tougher penalties for violations and other privileges should be reduced.

    Yep.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:17 am

  50. Lizzie

    As i noted above, the coalition have spent so much on OSB, that they have to cut the budget in the customs area. Agree with you that this is folly

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:17 am

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