Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
  1. victoria & lizzie

    remember when the Libs cut AQIS?

    The horse industry basically closed down, after equine flu was discovered in an imported horse.

    I remember going to local shows where all horse events had been cancelled.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:18 am

  2. zoomster

    I despair at the stupidity of this govt

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:19 am

  3. If Medicare is the Death Star circling Abbott, I hope Labor get it right and don’t muck around..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzoeEdW-EDQ&oref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DzzoeEdW-EDQ&has_verified=1

    by cud chewer on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:19 am

  4. BB @ 176

    Chris Uhlmann stood for the Osborn Independent (right wing conservative )Group in ACT elections
    & then worked as adviser for Osborn

    Viewers / listeners can decide if Chris is still independent

    by milenko on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:20 am

  5. Bugler
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 7:50 am | Permalink
    While I’m certainly not against polls not being reported in news bulletins in favour of pretty much anything else, I was surprised they avoided reporting Newspoll in favour of a bank robbery in the suburb I’m in making national news. Especially since under Gillard we were bombarded with every single poll.

    3Aw has been running the Newspoll results on it’s news services since 1.00am this morning – very briefly, but it’s been there.

    by Darn on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:21 am

  6. I asked this question earlier, can anyone enlighten?

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 8:54 am | PERMALINK

    I am confused about the medicare co oayment. At my GP, only aged pensioners, health care card holders And children under 16 yo are buik billed. For the rest of us a standard consultation costs $60. I believe the rebate from medicare is around 28.00.
    Does this mean that the govt going to seek a $6 co payment from pensioners and health care card holders?

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:21 am

  7. darn

    I dont listen to Neil Mitchell, but was has been his general take re job losses here in vic, the Napthine govt and the Abbott govt? Thanks in advance

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:22 am

  8. was – what

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:23 am

  9. victoria

    There looks to be a bit of a chest beating competition developing amongst pollies and commentators re “the bully to the south”. As Boerwar pointed out. We are lucky that they have a pretty friendly towards Australia guy in power. We may not be so lucky after the elections.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:23 am

  10. IF Indonesia was really upset at the returned boats situation it would implement steps that would hurt our export trade and similar imposts. All we have at the moment is a flow of words from both sides but no damaging action. Why; Indonesia can see the reduction of people in transit. Australia’s action is helping them and who knows what AU promises have been made to help in other areas? All we have is talk by politicians and we all know what that is worth.

    by pom on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:23 am

  11. vic – Quarantine also getting hard. (You’d think the Nationals would be against this!)

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:24 am

  12. Poroti

    Boerwar has not been around for a while. Hoping he is okay and can give us some insight as to the latest re Indonesia

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:24 am

  13. “Quarantine getting hit hard as well.”

    To complete the sentence.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:26 am

  14. CTar1

    The Nats have gone quiet since they got a nice dumping of rain in drought affected areas

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:26 am

  15. “@joshgnosis: ACMA is being asked about investigating Ray Hadley in #estimates right now”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:27 am

  16. BB

    and that interview with Singleton was so boring that even Uhlmann stopped listening..

    It WAS a shocker wasn’t it?

    Singleton sounded like he’d just staggered out of the early opener and had the shits about something. It was a real public bar rant, reminiscent of the whingeing talkback callers on his own radio stations.

    Although it was nice to hear him describe Alan Jones as “only a minor shareholder” and Ray Hadley as having no say whatsoever in how the business is run.

    When you listen to these two drongos you’d think they ran the state, or the nation, the way they summons Coalition politicians onto their shows demanding this or that rectifying action be taken (usually involving, even if tangentially, fixing up all of NSW’s problems in one foul swoop by sacking Greg Smith, its A-G).

    On the subject of laura norder… didn’t I hear something else on AM, along the lines of Barry O’Farrell being told (and I paraphrase Jaws here), “We’re gonna need a bigger jail,” if all those who have been mandatorially sentenced lob at the front gates of Long Bay after a bout of random king-hitting drunken coward-punching?

    I hope Barry has Serco’s phone number on speed-dial.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:27 am

  17. Stephen Spencer
    At some point we're going to stop fighting the 2010 and 2013 elections and start governing right? #newspoll explained.

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:28 am

  18. Victoria: I thought the plan was to make bulk billers pay extra (no point with non-bulkbillers). But there would be some sort of partial exemption for the poor (e.g. they get three free visits a fortnight then have to pay).
    However, of course, once their three visits are used up they would then head for hospital emergency.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:30 am

  19. Vic
    My guess is that, as was the case when Hawke introduced the co-payment, this is another way of saying that the benefit is reduced for non-concessional patients. The GPs can wear the cost or pass it on. Time will tell.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:30 am

  20. K17 and OC

    Thanks.

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:31 am

  21. BB

    I said to my son (who kept switching channels…) that a good interviewer would have either terminated the interview or tried to guide it a little more…but, as I said, my impression was that Uhlmann just stopped listening.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:32 am

  22. Patterson research group Poll in WA
    LIB: 45
    ALP: 32
    GRN: 12
    PUP: 1
    ?: 10

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/21683111/libs-aim-to-retain-all-senators/

    by bug1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:32 am

  23. Maybe Vic. But maybe exceptions for pensioners and health care card holders. Maybe exceptions for some others as well. The point is we don’t know yet but abbott/ dutton are doing all the talking for a reason.

    Around here most doctors bulk bill, if they try and charge their normal fees people just go elsewhere to a bulk billing doctor.

    So all I do is sign a form for them to get paid – currently I don’t pay anything for a visit. I go twice yearly for a checkup and repeat script.

    Will abbott allow these matters to be voted on in the next election before bringing them in ? If not then people can vote on them and on abbott anyway at that election.

    The other thing is the full charging for pathology – if people don’t have the tests suggested by doctors to help with early detection of problems – will it cost medicare etc a lot more in the long run.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:32 am

  24. “@political_alert: The Greens’ Adam Bandt and Lee Rhiannon will comment on the latest reports of Qantas job losses at 10.50am here at Parliament #auspol”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:33 am

  25. “@DGPetrie: Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Sentiment Falls 1.6% to 110.2 #ausbiz”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:34 am

  26. victoria

    Stephen Spencer
    At some point we're going to stop fighting the 2010 and 2013 elections and start governing right? #newspoll explained.

    Why would they stop ? They were such jolly japes. Lots of dress ups ,stunts and walking around mouthing three word slogans. No bothersome policy work or making decisions that actually matter. Heavenly days.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:35 am

  27. Carey Moore 266
    I have heard it said that the PM will instruct the Governor of WA to issue the writs.
    I don’t think that is constitutional. In a normal election the PM instructs the GG who then advises the Governors and I suspect that will happen this time.
    BUT in the classic example of the “Night of the Long Prawns” in 1974 the premier (in that case Joh) intervened and instructed the Governor to issue the writs before the PM had instructed the GG. Presumably the Governor must take the advice of his ministers except if there are exceptional circumstances. It is possible for the WA premier to set the election timetable.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:36 am

  28. vic – re: Bw.

    He likes to travel. He’s very knowledgeable and familiar with National Parks and nearby communities in the northern half of Australia.

    So my guess is he’s out there somewhere with little or no internet access.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:37 am

  29. Greg Sheridan is going to be on ABC 774 this morning. Apparently he has just returned from Indonesia

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:38 am

  30. “@political_alert: Transport Workers Union National Secretary Tony Sheldon will hold a doorstop in Sydney at 10.30am on reports of Qantas job losses #auspol”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:41 am

  31. Senate Estimates Constitutional & Legal has Immigration on today.

    They’re doing the Tribunals at the moment. Already clashes between Kim Carr and the Chairman.

    Likely to be interesting when the Dept itself comes on.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:42 am

  32. victoria

    Does this mean that the govt going to seek a $6 co payment from pensioners and health care card holders?

    It is a case of ‘who knows’ because various MPs have come out with different explanations.

    Dutton was the latest, and he seemed to be saying that it would only apply to people ‘on reasonable incomes’

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3948295.htm

    I have no idea how that would work in practice – does it mean that if you DON’T have a healthcard, you automatically get charged? Or that you have to take your current tax notification in with you when you visit the doctor?

    I doubt anyone really knows atm how this is supposed to operate in practice.

    (It’s interesting, though, looking at Dutton’s interview – you get the impression that the relevant Minister has no say in any of this, it’s all up to the Audit…)

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:42 am

  33. Plan to slash US army to pre-WWII levels to meet spending caps announced by Pentagon

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-25/pentagon-plan-to-slash-us-army-to-pre-wwii-levels/5281496

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:45 am

  34. WOW – what a Newspoll !

    I’d like to believe that, despite both ‘leaders’ shortcomings, the respondents have rejected the deceitful, destructive and arrogant nature of this Govt.

    by Rex Douglas on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:45 am

  35. Both Nielsen and Newspoll polling results seem to be at the extremes of the spectrum.

    It is possible that cash strapped Fairfax media and Murdoch newspapers are cutting their budgets for polling. If that is so, both polling companies may be cutting corners in doing the polling and not obtaining truly representative samples of the population.

    Does this sound plausible?

    by citizen on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:48 am

  36. CTar1

    vic – re: Bw.

    He likes to travel. He’s very knowledgeable and familiar with National Parks and nearby communities in the northern half of Australia.

    So my guess is he’s out there somewhere with little or no internet access.

    True. Hope that is what he is doing now. :)

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:48 am

  37. victoria
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 9:02 am | Permalink
    Has mod lib shown up yet to explain fo us dimwits what this poll means.

    Apparently not. We’re all waiting with bated breath.

    by Darn on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:51 am

  38. The poll “has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian”. Hmm … I wonder … one day of burying the “blip” and four fortnights of headlines when they come down one point at a time.

    by Jack Stepney on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:51 am

  39. Abbott signals reduction in growth in health and education

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-signals-reduction-in-growth-in-health-and-education-spending-20140225-33du9.html

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:52 am

  40. Has there been any discussion of the NRMA report on fuel security in this country. Shell have just sold off their Australian operations to Vitol, we currently import 90% of our fuel and bunker less than a 60 day supply

    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2013/s3950922.htm

    http://www.watoday.com.au/breaking-news-national/refine-policy-for-fuel-security-nrma-20140224-33cxz.html

    As Duetscher Bank is predicting the Australian dollar will be 66 cents by the end of 2015 see Gwenda Kwek

    by billie on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:53 am

  41. CTar1@232


    Plan to slash US army to pre-WWII levels to meet spending caps announced by Pentagon


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-25/pentagon-plan-to-slash-us-army-to-pre-wwii-levels/5281496

    My current book is “Blackwater” ie the huge outfit of former soldiers from many countries, but mainly US, who act as mercenaries, but who are officially recognised by the US Government and are counted as a vital part of the US ‘total’ force. Also the vast majority their funding is from the US Government.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:57 am

  42. This could become a politcal problem for Vic state govt

    Bonnie Baldry and her one-year-old daughter Carley travelled to Morwell from Moe on Monday. The mother and daughter are asthmatics and Bonnie's mother Janet has been by their sides ''looking out for them'' since the fires started.
    Their asthma flares up when they travel to Morwell, and the family tries to avoid the trip. ''It feels like someone is sitting on your chest,'' Ms Baldry said, describing the onset of an attack.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/morwell-residents-suffer-as-coal-mine-fire-burns-near-town-20140224-33d4f.html#ixzz2uHcGMWcS

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:57 am

  43. How unsurprisement, Greg Sheridan partisan hack, says nothing of any value when it comes to the Abbott govt

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:00 am

  44. Here’s a misleading headline

    Gillard praises Abbott government in US

    The story actually says she is grateful that Abbott didn’t cut funds committed by Labor to the Global Partnership for Education.

    Gillard, speaking in Washington DC on Monday at the Brookings Institution, said she was pleased the change of government in Australia did not lead to a cut in the financial support for the Global Partnership for Education (GPE).

    Gillard will take up the role of chair of the GPE's board next month.

    "I am pleased that the allocations we made in government have been sustained by the current government even though they have made changes to aid arrangements in the aid budget overall," Gillard told an audience at a Brookings event titled New Ideas to Scale Up and Finance Global Education.

    "So, it's good to see the GPE seems to have persuaded both sides of politics that it is a really important investment."

    http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/gillard-praises-abbott-government-in-us/story-e6frfkui-1226836490765

    by citizen on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:02 am

  45. “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: @Vic_Premier Denis Napthine is speaking to the media on jobs in Geelong http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #springst”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:04 am

  46. The big ticket items that effect Australian families are
    - education
    - health

    I suppose many people believe the are wealthy enough to be able to insulate themselves from ‘socialism’ and ‘communism’ by purchasing the education and health they need.

    However as many teachers will tell you, paying for your education is no guarantee of getting a quality education and when it comes to adult training the only sure thing about paying for your education is that you have paid the trainers wages and made a profit for the operator. Also the user pays education system is not interested in the disabled and troubled student.

    The truism of health care is that if you can afford to pay for your health care, you are essentially well.
    The big health users are chronically ill and unable to pay for their health care through age or infirmity.

    As jobs are being lost from the economy, by the next election, most people are going to know people who have been looking for work for long periods of time. But will the voters have forgotten how sweet life was when the dollar was high, there were jobs, health services were better and TAFE training existed

    by billie on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:06 am

  47. Customs job losses

    Will those officers involved in fisheries and border protection lose their jobs or just those pests at the airports reading our passports and checking our bags for food

    Maybe we will be able to import drugs more easily. Woo hoo!

    by billie on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:08 am

  48. victoria
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 9:22 am | Permalink
    darn

    I dont listen to Neil Mitchell, but was has been his general take re job losses here in vic, the Napthine govt and the Abbott govt? Thanks in advance

    Vic

    I generally don’t listen to Mitchell either. I prefer Ross and John. They are very entertaining and it’s the news services during their show that I hear – which was the case this morning.

    Occasionally, if the promo for Mitchell sounds interesting I’ll tune in to hear what he has to say. But for the most part I can’t stand his arrogance or his Liberal bias.

    by Darn on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:10 am

  49. darn

    That is why i dont listen to Mitchell either. :)

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:13 am

  50. Looks more like 10 Feb 2014 Newspoll was the the one a bit out of wack with the trend, 47-53 to Labor would have kept it right in line.

    COA and budget nasties all to come, plus the continual bleeding of jobs and nothing but negativity from the tories.

    Will WA really ‘reward’ them at the Senate rerun?

    29 Oct 2013 Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
    11 Nov 2013 Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition
    25 Nov 2013 Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition
    09 Dec 2013 Newspoll: 48-52 to Labor
    10 Feb 2014 Newspoll: 49-51 to Labor
    25 Feb 2014 Newspoll: 46-54 to Labor

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:13 am

« | »