Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. uytaur
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 8:30 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    In their political segment 24 just did. It was the last thing mentioned.

    Thanks certainly now the lead story like I think Nielsen was?

    by mari on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:19 am

  2. “@joshgnosis: #estimates begins covering broadband, and a wild Senator Conroy appears.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:21 am

  3. I don’t follow the “breaking trend claim”. Nielsen showed a big swing against Labor, Morgan a small one, and Essential went the other way. So, before this poll, 2 out 3 had Labor down, now it’s split evenly.

    There’s no obvious reason to treat the Nielsen result as more or less credible than Newspoll, though obviously they can’t both be right, and even a pure sampling error effect seems unlikely

    by johnquiggin1@mac.com on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:25 am

  4. Senator Conroy is nailing how regional areas are being missed out as being not comercially feasible

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:27 am

  5. Watching estimates

    Sen K Carr us giving MCash a hard time

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:27 am

  6. dave

    My current book is “Blackwater”

    When Ellie Wainwright was at ASPI (early 2000′s) she wrote a very interesting paper on the use of ‘private forces’ and the implications of using them.

    It seems to have disappeared from their server along with a lot of other stuff she researched and wrote.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:30 am

  7. allowing that this poll is slightly rogue (although it reinforces all the other polls showing labor with a 51:49 or 53:48 lead), notice the different way in which it is being reported. When Rudd or Gillard had poll swings such as this, the Australian and then other media followers, ran the line of leaderships being ‘terminal’, asserted the community ‘has stopped listening’, spoke of a ‘deeply unpopular’ and ‘incompetent’ government, and started whispering about leadership moves.

    I’m encouraged that voters are smarter than the media and that perhaps the atrocity of Manus has woken people up (although i think the closure of most of SE australia’s manufacturing industry may play a bigger part or the greens would have got a bump). state by state figures would be interesting, as will the WA senate election re-run, although abbott may get his agenda through before the WA senators can sit

    by sustainable future on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:30 am

  8. “@KnottMatthew: “It was so nice before you showed up!”: Fellow committee member to Senator Conroy.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:31 am

  9. I love the story about the Paterson poll. “Libs aim to retain all three WA Senators.” Well, yes, but that’s not the point, is it? The point is what happens to the Dropulich seat. On that poll it would comfortably go back to Labor, which means that Abbott would have one fewer right-wing Senator come 1 July. That poll does seem to be under-counting Palmer, however. He got 5% in September, so 1% now seems unlikely.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:33 am

  10. Senator carr does grumpy really well.

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:34 am

  11. “@latikambourke: Caucus approves Plibersek’s gay marriage bill…designed to pressure PM Abbott into granting Libs a conscience vote. More on @abcnews soon.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:35 am

  12. Senator Conroy has uncovered 20 to 40% of premises have no access to at least one fixed line broadband service

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:38 am

  13. bug1
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink
    Patterson research group Poll in WA
    LIB: 45
    ALP: 32
    GRN: 12
    PUP: 1
    ?: 10

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/21683111/libs-aim-to-retain-all-senators/

    This poll was taken before the court decision and therefore well before the Newspoll was taken. If Newspoll is not an outlier, but rather a response to a lot of negatives for the government that occurred in the same week, there is a good chance that the above figures – if they were right in the first place – will have changed significantly.

    by Darn on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:39 am

  14. citizen @ 234

    Both Nielsen and Newspoll polling results seem to be at the extremes of the spectrum.

    It is possible that cash strapped Fairfax media and Murdoch newspapers are cutting their budgets for polling. If that is so, both polling companies may be cutting corners in doing the polling and not obtaining truly representative samples of the population.

    Does this sound plausible?

    Unlikely. Despite some of the wilder conspiracies posited on PB at various times, both Newspoll and AC Nielsen are running regular market and social research of which these published results are but a small part of their wider spectrum of work, however high the media profile.

    The problem hasn’t historically been with the raw polling results, although ‘rogue’ polls do sometimes intrude into the mix, but with the wayward and partisan analysis of the poll results by likes of Dennis Shanahan, et al, in the Murdoch media, or the emphasis, or lack of it, placed on particular polls to suit some other potentially biased agenda, as could be claimed in the ABC’s case by the prominence, or lack thereof, given to particular polling results. This was the case last week with the multiple mentions of the unflattering ALP result in the Nielsen poll, but the relative lack of mention of the more ALP favourable Newspoll results today.

    News Ltd we know is biased to the Coalition, so their jaundiced analysis can be virtually discounted as serious news, but the ABC’s management of these issues may be deriving more from incompetence and indifference than from deliberate bias.

    by The Big Ship on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:40 am

  15. “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: @TWUAus National Secretary Tony Sheldon speaking on reports of job losses at #Qantas http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #auspol”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:41 am

  16. “@ABCNews24: .@TWUAus Tony Sheldon: Hundreds of millions of dollars a year has been lost at Jetstar #Qantas”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:43 am

  17. “@ABCNews24: .@TWUAus Tony Sheldon: #Qantas is selling off its profitable arm while trying to prop up its failed south-east expansion”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:44 am

  18. “@ABCNews24: .@TWUAus Tony Sheldon: Alan Joyce and the #Qantas board have been auctioning off Australia’s interests”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:45 am

  19. “@KnottMatthew: Senator Conroy referred to JB Rousselot as the NBN’s “head of strategy and yachting” (he co-owns a yacht with Malcolm Turnbull) #estimates”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:47 am

  20. “@ABCNews24: .@TWUAus Tony Sheldon: Workers love #Qantas but the management has decided to destroy the icon”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:48 am

  21. “@ABCNews24: .@TWUAus Tony Sheldon: #Qantas has 65% of the domestic market yet they continue to outsource jobs overseas”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:49 am

  22. “@ABCNews24: .@TWUAus Tony Sheldon: There should be no change to the sale act, no taxpayer underwriting until #Qantas comes clean #auspol”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:51 am

  23. Guytaur #263 to #270 yes but what do you think? :)

    by davidwh on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:53 am

  24. dwh

    Senator X is right. Board and CEO have to change. Current lot have signed off on a path to losses.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:55 am

  25. Don’t know if anyone has mentioned it yet, but we got smashed in the cricket on the weekend – it might help explain this poll result.

    by Libertarian Unionist on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:55 am

  26. The real economy and fiscal picture is taking hit after hit (except of course house prices but that’s a more complex story). Who knows where we’ll be in 2 years’ time as next election draws near but if I’m not mistaken, changes in Aussie fed government rarely take place in troubled times but rather when things are settled and perceived to be going well, with perhaps clouds on horizon. It’s probably a fear factor of change so that you can risk it in good times but go status quo in troubled times. Just an observation.

    by Mick77 on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:57 am

  27. I love the story about the Paterson poll. “Libs aim to retain all three WA Senators.” Well, yes, but that’s not the point, is it? The point is what happens to the Dropulich seat. On that poll it would comfortably go back to Labor, which means that Abbott would have one fewer right-wing Senator come 1 July.

    Of course if they were really worried about losing their third seat that would be good but it does seem very unlikely as their vote would have to fall well short of 40%…

    Yes those numbers would mean a fairly comfortable ‘standard’ result of 3/2/1 Lib/ALP/Grn. Which would be a good thing relative to now. (And WA keeping both Pratt and Ludlum would definitely be a good thing.)

    by Martin B on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:58 am

  28. Does that smart arse Jamie Briggs ever shut up – talk about being up yourself.

    Wonder how he reacted when he saw the Newspoll results?

    The rot is finally setting in!

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 10:58 am

  29. MTBW

    His performance on Q&A last night was pretty poor – and the audience thought so, too. For once he didn’t have ready answers (aka 3-word slogans) for some of the questions.
    ;)

    by lizzie on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:04 am

  30. I don’t think the government learned anything from the Newspoll. Pyne was on the ABC ranting about a parliamentary apology to those people named by Thomson. Not sure why the Peoples House should apologise for that clown. It’s time the Libs let that issue die an unnatural death.

    by davidwh on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:04 am

  31. Maybe Julie Bishop should consider North Korea as a destination for asylum seekers.

    by Toorak Toff on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:07 am

  32. lizzie

    He was appalling and then became very compassionate when the subject of Charlotte Dawson’s suicide was mentioned.

    As my Dad always said to us “just remember that nobody likes a smart arse.”

    Briggs is a prime example of one!

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:07 am

  33. david

    The Libs appear to be devoid of any compassion at all. God help us all!

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:09 am

  34. Does anyone like Christopher Pyne?

    We South Australians have some dandy politicians!

    by Toorak Toff on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:10 am

  35. MTBW

    I was pleased to see that his smug smirk quivered and dissolved several times.

    Ged Kearney was excellent. Naturally interrupted by TJones several times just as she got into her stride.

    by lizzie on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:10 am

  36. Can anyone give me a link to Senate Estimates please?

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:11 am

  37. @drewsheldrick: Labor to introduce private members bill to legalise same-sex marriage http://t.co/GanMXxNNQb

    Labor on the front foot framing the political agenda on an issue Abbott fails badly on :)

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:11 am

  38. Toorak Toff

    I believe there are some blue-rinsed old ladies in his electorate who find him peachy!

    by lizzie on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:11 am

  39. davidwh – Pyne just a stupid and smart arse as usual.

    I don’t think the Coalition have grasped the fact that Pyne should not be let out in public.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:12 am

  40. MTBW

    http://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Parliament

    Coo,s is on break until about ¼ past

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:12 am

  41. Mtbw

    http://www.a-pac.tv

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:13 am

  42. Great new word in the comment section of First Dog. After Abbott saying we don’t want wimps in charge of immigration someone suggested Australia be called “Manup Island” . Also liked the suggestion we call Manus “The Island of Dr Moreauson.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:13 am

  43. Agree lizzie Ged Kearney did really well and showed both shock and compassion.

    I am getting to like Clive a bit more too at least he says what he thinks.

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:13 am

  44. “@tanya_plibersek: ALP caucus has endorsed my proposal to legislate #MarriageEquality. It’s now up to Tony Abbott to allow his MPs a conscience vote #auspol”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:14 am

  45. Basically I think people just want them to act like a government and stop trying to score political points from dead issues. RC’s into Pink Bats and apologies won’t run the country. Pyne just sounded contrived.

    by davidwh on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:17 am

  46. Thanks guytaur and vic!

    How good is that proposal of Tanya’s. These are the sorts of things we should be taking up there is a growing acceptance in the community of Marriage equality.

    BTW did anyone see Australian Story last night re Malcolm McGregor’s gender transition?

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:19 am

  47. davidwh

    Concur. Abbott, Pyne et al are behaving like school boy prats. It is disgraceful

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:20 am

  48. MTBW

    http://www.aph.gov.au/live/

    Scroll down to see the live committees.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:20 am

  49. Pyne always sounds contived :)

    And I wonder if the Libs poir polling is in part a reCtion to the likes of Pyne being allowed out in public more these dats?

    by cud chewer on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:21 am

  50. “@joshgnosis: Conroy says he got category E on his MyBroadband test and “cant wait to get no upload speeds at the price of $40 billion” #estimates”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:21 am

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