Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. poroti

    “Manup Island” . Also liked the suggestion we call Manus “The Island of Dr Moreauson.

    Love it!

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:21 am

  2. What’s this crap about parliament apologizing to the HSU and people Thommo slagged off during his speech?

    Pyne is such a wanker.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:21 am

  3. victoria

    Pyne et al are behaving like school boy prats.

    When does Pyne not behave like a “school boy prat” ?

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:23 am

  4. Thanks to you as well CTar1!

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:23 am

  5. “@latikambourke: Labor will vote WITH the Govt to allow carbon permit auctions to be scrapped if the Greens try and disallow the Govt’s regs. @abcnews”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:25 am

  6. “@latikambourke: Caucus unanimously endorsed the decision to agree with the Govt’s regulation to scrap carbon auction permits. @abcnews”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:26 am

  7. Please let the answer be yes.

    Could John Howard be citizen-arrested for his role in the Iraq war?

    Margaret Swieringa, a senior Australian public servant who worked as a secretary to the federal parliamentary intelligence committee from 2002 until 2007 wrote in 2013 that Howard’s use of intelligence reports was fundamentally flawed. She knew, as an insider, that, “none of the government’s arguments (of Iraq’s apparent immediate threat) were supported by the intelligence presented to it by its own agencies. None of these arguments were true.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/25/could-john-howard-be-citizen-arrested-for-his-role-in-the-iraq-war

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:28 am

  8. Michael Keenan before the election:

    MICHAEL KEENAN: Well of course it’s a response to an actual problem. What we’ve had since the Labor Party has come into office, Emma, is they’ve taken 15 per cent of the workforce away from Customs. They’ve cut $58 million out of the budget that Customs has to inspect cargo when it comes into Australia. And if you’re arguing or if the Labor Party’s arguing that that makes Australia safer, then I don’t think that many Australians would agree with them.

    and

    MICHAEL KEENAN: Look, I appreciate this argument and intelligence will always be a very important part of the way Customs operates. But it stands to reason and I think that most people would understand that if you’re inspecting 60 per cent of air cargo when it comes into Australia, as was happening six years ago, and we now inspect less than 10 per cent of cargo, that criminals are gonna have a much better chance of gaming that system.

    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2013/s3829237.htm

    I take it now that the LNP won’t be putting money back into Customs and it seems a little unlikely they will be inspecting 60% of air cargo again…

    What a surprise!

    (That lateline interview with Keenan was such a total car crash … it’s really quite funny).

    by Jackol on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:29 am

  9. Why aren’t we reading commentary like this in the wake of Redcliffe?

    If Swan and the rest of the leadership team surrounding Kevin Rudd truly believe that the historic swing against Labor in Saturday's Penrith by-election reflected a verdict only on the NSW Keneally government they deserve to be treated as laughing stocks. As with all good jokes you'll have to wait for the punch line; Labor to lose the federal election.

    ...The context in Penrith is the record collapse in Rudd's support and that of his flailing government. The subtext is a question mark; whether that means Penrith was not only about Kristina Keneally but a rejection of the entire Labor brand, federal and state.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/penrith-sends-the-pm-a-message-on-asylum-seekers/story-e6frg6zo-1225882006073

    or…

    Political observers have dubbed last night's result the "Penrith massacre" with pressure intensifying on Kevin Rudd's leadership.

    More poor figures in tomorrow's Newspoll will have more impact on the Federal Government than the by-election, but its historically high swing will have an impact.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudds-new-poll-woes/story-e6frf7jo-1225881774565

    There’s others, of course – and I remember the hysteria at the time.

    But why does a poor showing at a by election along with bad polling have the msm calling for one leader’s head, but the Redcliffe result virtually vanishes without a trace?

    Ah, that’s right…the msm have been told that Redcliffe was purely about local issues, just as they dismissed Gillard’s speech because of its context…

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:29 am

  10. The voters of Sturt should line up and apologise to us for electing this prat.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:30 am

  11. rogue poll

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:32 am

  12. “@latikambourke: OL Bill Shorten tells caucus ’87-90 Newspolls to come before the election.’ @abcnews”

    “@latikambourke: OL Bill Shorten to caucus ‘Polls are like using the second hand to tell the time.’ #shortenisms”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:33 am

  13. The citizen arrest of Mr Howard would be unlawful

    All States have a legal basis to make a citizen's arrest. In NSW it's under Section 100 of the Law Enforcement (Powers and Responsibilities) Act 2002. It reads:

    A person (other than a police officer) may, without a warrant, arrest a person if:
    the person is in the act of committing an offence under any Act or statutory instrument, or
    the person has just committed any such offence, or
    the person has committed a serious indictable offence for which the person has not been tried.

    by shellbell on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:37 am

  14. Switkowski on now in Senate Comms.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:37 am

  15. Ziggy up @ Estimates

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:37 am

  16. “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: PM @TonyAbbottMHR is launching the @beyondblue National Roadshow http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #auspol #mentalhealth

    Warming Kennett as well as Abbott

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:39 am

  17. PTMD – it probabably is a rogue poll but that is yet to be substantiated. Time will tell.

    by Gary on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:39 am

  18. A lot of volatility in the polling right now. I suspect that a lot of voters that are getting upset with the government don’t really want to admit to themselves that they made the wrong choice at the election less than 6 months later. As time goes on it should gradually settle down.

    This represents a new low water mark for the government which is good to see – hopefully in time polls like this will become the norm.

    by Think Big on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:40 am

  19. victoria

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    How unsurprisement, Greg Sheridan partisan hack, says nothing of any value when it comes to the Abbott govt

    —————————————————–

    I find his obsequious Abbott sycophancy to be absolutely nauseating to listen to ……

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:43 am

  20. Any advance on the number of job losses at QANTAS? It’s gone from 1000 to 3000 and now 5000.

    If its 5000 that’s going to hurt Abbott plenty, although I gather its not his fault.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:43 am

  21. I must say I won’t be sad to see the back of Pell. The Vaticans gain is our gain.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:47 am

  22. hellbell
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 11:37 am | PERMALINK
    The citizen arrest of Mr Howard would be unlawful

    All States have a legal basis to make a citizen’s arrest. In NSW it’s under Section 100 of the Law Enforcement (Powers and Responsibilities) Act 2002. It reads:

    A person (other than a police officer) may, without a warrant, arrest a person if:
    the person is in the act of committing an offence under any Act or statutory instrument, or
    the person has just committed any such offence, or
    the person has committed a serious indictable offence for which the person has not been tried.

    ———-why would arresting howard for war crimes be unlawful based on above? of course you’d have another problem with security issues of howard

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:49 am

  23. One county in Vermont had an arrest warrant out for George W Bush, I think for war crimes.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:51 am

  24. If the ALP side with the government to let the regulation cancelling the carbon credit auctions stand it will just make the ALP’s message even more confused.

    I’ll reserve judgment until they vote on it in the parliament rather than rely on whatever the press gallery is hearing/feeling, but if the ALP believe that a carbon price is the right policy and will be pursuing it in future (and I really truly hope that this is what the ALP believe), then they need to stand firm on rejecting the government’s moves now. It doesn’t matter that the government thinks it has a political advantage in this area. It doesn’t matter that the new Senate will probably vote to repeal the carbon price. The important thing is how the ALP can deal with this in the future with some appearance of integrity. The ALP already suffers because of the Rudd mk 2 election messaging on this – trying to explain that “axe the tax” from the election campaign wasn’t actually about the carbon price as a whole is a bridge too far in what has already been a convoluted and disastrously communicated history of ALP policy contortions on a carbon price.

    If the ALP plan to have a carbon price as a long term part of their platform then they really have to stand on principle here and just ignore any short term political issues. If they vote with the government to scrap the auctions it’s just continuing the long line of confused messaging, and isn’t starting the ALP on the path to appearing to have a backbone and a consistent approach.

    If the ALP are dithering about committing to a carbon price in future, well I guess there is no hope.

    by Jackol on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:51 am

  25. what a great stunt arresting howard or abbott.

    re the latter or both. the libs have lost any credibility f govern. they simply seek massive transfer of wealth from public to private. they are not reviewing medical or education costs generally – eg are australians on whole paying more for both including private systems and why? – they wont raises taxes eg mining or company ripoffs or trusts – but want to pull but public spending so private can step in. they use debt and deficit as pretext for crude thinking.

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:52 am

  26. Geoffrey

    Cause a citizen cannot arrest based on a suspicion or even a lawyer’s opinion that an offence has been committed which is all there is.

    by shellbell on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:53 am

  27. must be last person to check redcliffe results. wow. can anyone remember a turn around like this in one seat?

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:54 am

  28. Jackol

    I can’t work out why they are voting with Abbott to stop pricing carbon but I have up on Labor having a coherent plan on anything a while back.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:54 am

  29. A glance at William’s graphic in the sidebar suggests to me that the “rogue poll” is not this Newspoll, but the recent Nielsen poll, which was the only poll since last November to have the LNP leading on 2PP.

    by MagicPudding on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:55 am

  30. Bill Shorten on 24

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:57 am

  31. Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 11:47 am | PERMALINK
    I must say I won’t be sad to see the back of Pell. The Vaticans gain is our gain.

    ——– but isn’t pell still under cloud with commission. isn’t this little bit like moving on suspects of child abuse business – hope he is removed from rome. in any case why would anyone esp a more progressive pope want to make further use of old moralising right wing tyrant like pell?

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:57 am

  32. badcat

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    How unsurprisement, Greg Sheridan partisan hack, says nothing of any value when it comes to the Abbott govt

    —————————————————–

    I find his obsequious Abbott sycophancy to be absolutely nauseating to listen to ……

    —————————————————

    A nice piss-take based on *actual words* by him :

    How I learnt to love Tony Abbott

    A bromance for the ages

    Greg Sheridan

    http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2013/december/1385816400/greg-sheridan/how-i-learnt-love-tony-abbott

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:57 am

  33. MagicPudding
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 11:55 am | PERMALINK
    A glance at William’s graphic in the sidebar suggests to me that the “rogue poll” is not this Newspoll, but the recent Nielsen poll, which was the only poll since last November to have the LNP leading on 2PP.
    —-yes

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:57 am

  34. magic pudding
    That was definitely a rogue.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:58 am

  35. geoffrey
    I suspect the Pope’s rule in Rome is no absolute. Maybe Pell knows where a lot of bodies (of info) are buried?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:00 pm

  36. shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 11:53 am | PERMALINK
    Geoffrey

    Cause a citizen cannot arrest based on a suspicion or even a lawyer’s opinion that an offence has been committed which is all there is.

    –thanks but that’s how the relevant statute reads – indeed one can arrest someone in act doing offence .. what extra condition do you think is required before making arrest. the vermont charge against bush sounds good. why not LG warrants against howard (and even abbott as suits)

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:01 pm

  37. Zoomster
    The difference is the geography, demographics and electoral history of the state seat of Penrith.
    It truly was Labor heartland and its lost indicated that Labor truly was on the nose whether it was on the nose in the state, federally or both was open to comment. In the end the commentary was right – Labor’s brand had been trashed in both.

    by Oakeshott Country on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:04 pm

  38. @political_alert: List of legislation approved by the Coalition joint party room for introduction #auspol http://t.co/q2jTzCSlMN

    Two pieces of legislation specifically for social security

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:09 pm

  39. dio

    I must say I won’t be sad to see the back of Pell. The Vaticans gain is our gain.

    Absolutely agree he can do the Vatican Accounting and get out of our hair. I don’t trust him at all.

    Heard that Anthony Fisher from the Parramatta Diocese is being considered for the new Cardinal along with someone from Queensland.

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:12 pm

  40. Good presser by Shorten

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:14 pm

  41. @PoliticsFairfax: Exclusive: George Brandis to announce police taskforce to work with royal commission on union corruption #auspol http://t.co/cuZ2CewtSX

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:15 pm

  42. Geoffrey

    The simple distinction is that police can arrest people on suspicion of having committed an offence while citizens can only arrest if, in fact, the offence has been committed.

    With John Howard, people can do no more than suspect he has committed an offence based on what they read, believe etc. That is not sufficient for a citizen arrest.

    by shellbell on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:16 pm

  43. @michaelidato: The immigration minister’s handling of #ManusIsland won applause from MPs. Um. Applause? Really? #speechless | SMH http://t.co/Eupgy38F88

    What a sick bunch!

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:17 pm

  44. Pyne is one of Labor’s great assets.

    1. It is great to have him as education minister pyning to cut funding to state schools. His whiney upper class twat “of-course-i’ve-never-even-so-much-as-met-somebody-from-a-state-school-oh-wait-I-think-one-of-my-drivers-was-once-or-perhaps-one-of-the-maids” voice is a gift. Labor should get him up to speak on education as much as they can.

    2. His general pallor and camp sliminess. I recall the first time I saw him on Insight as a junior secretary for something in the Howard era, and just felt my skin crawl. “who is the upper class young lib prat?” I thought. I do not know anybody – including dyed in the wool libs – who can stand him.

    3. he sees himself as PM. He is so deluded that the thinks he’s electable. Labor should encourage his leadership ambitions.

    and, politely, when is bludgertrack getting up dated? – I want the newspoll figure in there to feel better.

    by sustainable future on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:20 pm

  45. Among the crime figures likely to be targeted over their connection to construction union officials will be Melbourne gangland identity Mick Gatto and his associate in Sydney, George Alex.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/police-taskforce-to-work-with-royal-commission-on-union-corruption-george-brandis-to-announce-20140225-33e7v.html#ixzz2uIBQcjN

    For those not familiar with Mick Gatto, here is some information

    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/03/23/1079939645362.html

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mick_Gatto

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/mick-gatto-pursued-debt-deal-with-troubled-property-developer-20140125-31fpa.html

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:20 pm

  46. Interesting that the most recent Newspoll was noted here on PB late in the evening Perth time yesterday.

    In the early hours of the morning, the quite surprising figures (really) got a mention on Fairfax radio, but with the emphasis on the “both leaders have hit the skids” line rather than then headline 54-46 which is perhaps what it should have been.

    Meanwhile Perth ABC radio news around 6 am followed by Early AM – not one single word about the poll.

    Still nothing one ABC on-line news when I looked last.

    Now, I am no conspiracy theory addict as if you bag Newspoll (bad for Labor = Murdoch conspiracy – good for Labor = well, what?) then it is hard to make any comment at all about the poll. I think William alluded to this in his intro.

    Anyway, I digress. By 8 am local Fairfax did mention the poll on local radio, but this time, with the Harry Phillips talking about the fact that the impact of PUP was hard to determine for the coming Senate poll.

    I pondered on the difference between then and now – not so long ago – when Newspoll was banner headline in most of the media, the ins and out were looked at like soothsayers looking at the gizzards of a chook, and weighty prognostications made about bad, bad, bad (and going further down the gurgler) Labor government.

    When an election is two plus years away, and there is no likelihood of a imminent change of government, what was just so important to report and predict from either does not make the news at all now, or is done so in passing.

    I just miss the sad looking face of Abbott, on line, to replace the ones of Gillard/Rudd which was the regular portrait when polls were bad for Labor – many times.

    What a strange world we live in.

    by Tricot on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:21 pm

  47. “@KnottMatthew: Conroy to Ziggy: “You’re doing as good a job as anyone could…” Ziggy: “Can I get that on the record?” #estimates”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:24 pm

  48. From today’s Mumble. I think this is a good clear explanation of how to look at polls this far out from an election.

    Don’t forget, all these surveys aren’t measuring what would happen if an election had been held on the weekend, even though that’s how they’re often reported. That’s not possible, given the endless counterfactuals—most importantly the existence of campaign over the last four or more weeks.

    Pollsters are contacting people and asking them to suddenly imagine there’s an election held today; and how are they going to vote? Pretty silly question when you think about it, bound to get the odd silly answer.

    But as an actual election approaches the question becomes “how will you vote on Saturday the (date)?” The final Newspoll before last year’s federal election got (rounded) the Labor, Coalition and Greens primary votes exactly right.

    Still, it’s amusing that Abbott and co are getting polls like this so early in their term. So much for a honeymoon.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_rogue_by_any_name/

    by madcyril on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:25 pm

  49. The last Cardinal Fisher had his head cut off.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:26 pm

  50. Psephos

    Well let’s hope that doesn’t happen again!

    At least Pell will be contained in doing finances.

    by MTBW on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:29 pm

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