Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. Yes bishop fisher – check out a video clip of this future prince of the church.

    by Edwina StJohn on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:30 pm

  2. Bloody carbon price/tax.

    It has done much more harm than good.

    It was a certainty, the majority were in favour of action to tackle climate change.

    But NO. The Loons had to be relevant on their core issue.

    Now they (the Greens) get NOTHING.

    Beautiful!

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:30 pm

  3. Bishop fisher was spice girl no1 apparently.

    by Edwina StJohn on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:31 pm

  4. Senator Conroy exposing Turnbull over Tasmania. Could be winning an election this work today

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:31 pm

  5. This is a new bit of gossip to me.

    “@jonathanvswan: The “Turnbull for US” rumours have been peddled around for months. I’d suggest they’re more likely seeded by his enemies than by MT camp.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:34 pm

  6. MADCYRIL – Mumble wants me to read him, he can stop appearing on a NewsCorps blog. Oh, and he can reveal the terms upon which he’s on that blog as well.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:35 pm

  7. “@CloverMoore: A CSRIO study found 80% of Australians believe climate change is a real threat. @resourcefultype is in the minority & votes against action.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:36 pm

  8. I met Fisher at a conference in Adelaide once. He had just published a book on the evils of IVF.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:42 pm

  9. Bandt criticising Labor for ‘jumping the gun’ by proposing a bill on ssm before cross party committee has done its work.

    Comes across more as peeved than someone with a valid argument.

    It’s not as if this is the first time the issue has been raised — or as if a ‘cross party committee’ is going to somehow magically influence decisions in the Liberal party room.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:48 pm

  10. Madcyril@346

    The reported comments are of course to the point.

    However, it is what the media make of the polls which gives the lie to this logical approach.

    I have just alluded to the fact that when a government is on the skids, and the more pollies talk about the “unimportance” of the polls, the more inclined I am to believe they are watching every tiff and turn.

    The thing with polls is that either you accept them for what they are or you manipulate them to suit your agenda.

    At the moment, the agenda – as the West has put it this morning in an editorial – is the the new government is still “finding its feet”. Thus, 6 months into its tenure the West admits that Abbott and his crew found getting into office easy, but actually doing it, hard slog. The West, being a friend of the Abbott government, appeals to the electorate to give its preferred political party some time to get itself sorted out.

    Of course, many of us saw through Abbott’s “ready to govern with policies in place with an experienced front bench” as just so much rubbish.

    However, the punters paid for the ticket and now must strap in for the ride.

    I sensed the West, from its editorial, was sounding a little nervous about the current government’s ability to cope.

    And, dare I say it – but just as the cares of office turn the hair of US presidents white while in office, the bags under Julie Bishop’s eyes betray, for her, the hard slog since September 2013.

    by Tricot on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:48 pm

  11. Psephos@356

    I met Fisher at a conference in Adelaide once. He had just published a book on the evils of IVF.

    He is known in Sydney in some quarters as “Boy George” inferring he is a clone of Pell.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:49 pm

  12. ie doctrine wise.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:51 pm

  13. zoomster

    On this one Bandt is wrong. He is right the timing is a political stunt. However its only by such stunts you keep an issue in the public eye.

    It ceases to be a stunt the instant Abbott says yes to a free vote.

    Disappointing from Bandt.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:51 pm

  14. From Essential today: voters approve of the renewable energy target, disapprove of what QANTAS is doing and mark the government poorly across a number of issues

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/02/25/essential-voters-back-ret-not-so-happy-about-qantas/

    by spur212 on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:54 pm

  15. Is Shorten using Pliberseks SSM bill to deflect attn away from their abandoning of carbon auctions ?

    by Rex Douglas on Feb 25, 2014 at 12:57 pm

  16. Tricot
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    When an election is two plus years away, and there is no likelihood of a imminent change of government, what was just so important to report and predict from either does not make the news at all now, or is done so in passing.

    All well and good.

    Nevertheless two weeks ago when Newpoll showed a swing back to abbott that was widely featured in the media.

    This time around the Poll is in Labor’s favour and it is getting very nominal airtime.

    ABC TV News at Noon in Sydney had about 5 minutes of the bulletin on Federal Politics and yet again this weeks Newspoll not mentioned.

    Just saying….

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:00 pm

  17. I suspect the Pope’s rule in Rome is no absolute. Maybe Pell knows where a lot of bodies (of info) are buried?

    I’m just wondering whether the Pope hasn’t got something up his sleeve re. Pell.

    1. Get him out of Sydney, and indeed out of all vickarage duties, so that he’s not dealing with the public (who mostly seem to loathe him);

    2. Put him nominally in charge of the Vatican finances so he can be ordered – by the Pope – to oversee payments to abused children and other victims of the Catholic Church, including in his old diocese.

    A bit like forcing Nazis to dig the mass graves with shovels, and then to bury their own concentration camp victims.

    Good for his eternal soul. Penance writ large.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:02 pm

  18. @Simon_Cullen: The competition watchdog has launched Fed Court action against Coles & Woolies over fuel discount dockets http://t.co/6JDWyB4tAH @abcnews

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:05 pm

  19. Oh dear. How on earth does JBishop think making a deal with Cambodia re asylum seekers, a sensible one??

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-24/attacks-against-vietnamese-rising-in-cambodia/5281272

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:09 pm

  20. Tricot

    However, it is what the media make of the polls which gives the lie to this logical approach.

    Yes, I really don’t watch or read much mainstream media anymore, so can’t comment on what things a like now. But while Labor were in office, the reporting of opinion polls was way over the top and out of control really. Of course, there was an agenda there from certain sections of the media. I gather from what you and others have said, the hysteria which used to meet opinion polls like this has died away now. Predictable really.

    by madcyril on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:09 pm

  21. spur212
    If the govt plan to scrap the RET, they should get hammered for it, and their justifications for wanting to scrap it had better be caled out for what they are – lies.

    Plus, another verdict yesterday rejecting wind farm health concerns http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/24/no-reliable-evidence-wind-farms-harm-health-peak-research-body-says

    by Bonza on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:09 pm

  22. Only a whisper mind you, but I’ve been told that Nestles in Gympie is not looking all that good for the workforce.

    by jeffemu on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:18 pm

  23. Essential still 49/51 to the ALP

    by spur212 on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:19 pm

  24. Labor has decided to drop its opposition to the Abbott government's plan to cancel carbon auctions but denies the move signals a weakening of its support for retaining a price on pollution.

    ..A spokeswoman for Mark Butler said the decision was consistent with plans announced during the second Rudd government to accelerate the end of a fixed price on carbon by one year to replace it with a floating price determined by an emissions trading scheme from this July.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-backs-coalition-plan-to-scrap-carbon-auctions-20140225-33eq1.html#ixzz2uIQt9ZIJ

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:21 pm

  25. Psephos@356
    I met Fisher at a conference in Adelaide once. He had just published a book on the evils of IVF.
    He is known in Sydney in some quarters as “Boy George” inferring he is a clone of Pell.

    Bonus.

    I assume the Pope directly chooses Pells successor.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:22 pm

  26. Z

    Labor has decided to drop its opposition to the Abbott government's plan to cancel carbon auctions but denies the move signals a weakening of its support for retaining a price on pollution.

    ..A spokeswoman for Mark Butler said the decision was consistent with plans announced during the second Rudd government to accelerate the end of a fixed price on carbon by one year to replace it with a floating price determined by an emissions trading scheme from this July.

    Talk about disingenuous spin.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:23 pm

  27. Border Protection Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed he knew a week ago his initial statements about a fatal brawl at the immigration detention facility on Manus Island were likely to have been wrong but has refused to say why he waited to correct the record until Saturday night

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-knew-he-was-wrong-on-brawl-death-20140224-33d5f.html

    Morrison has to go.

    by Just Me on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:26 pm

  28. Labor’s message getting through: Shorten

    BILL Shorten has told colleagues the federal opposition’s message on jobs and Medicare is getting through to voters.

    The latest Newspoll has Labor leading the coalition on a two-party-preferred basis 54-46 per cent, with its primary vote surging four per cent to 39 per cent.

    But Mr Shorten, addressing the Labor caucus on Tuesday, noted there were still about 90 Newspolls before the next election.

    MORE : http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labors-message-getting-through-shorten/story-e6frfku9-1226836980436

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:27 pm

  29. Sky news banner states that Truss has said that laws are currently being drafted to allow Qantas to be majority foreign owned

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:27 pm

  30. So, it’s not 1k jobs, not 3k jobs going, but Qantas now denying 5k jobs.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:28 pm

  31. Diog

    I actually have no idea what that means, but I thought I’d put it out there…

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:29 pm

  32. badcat

    Labor’s message getting through: Shorten

    Personally I think it’s more that Abbotts message is getting through. ;)

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:29 pm

  33. Z

    I think they’re banking on no one knowing what it means.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:31 pm

  34. “@BarnsGreg: #auspol Clauses 4.2.1. 4.2.2 of Commonwealth-G4S contract nails Morrison’s liability for death and injuries at Manus Island Centre.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:36 pm

  35. Can anyone tell me the state breakdowns for last Morgan poll 11 Feb? Especially QLD and SA? I cant find it.

    by Simon Katich on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:36 pm

  36. Simon katich

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5449-morgan-poll-february-24-2014-201402240425

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:38 pm

  37. @Mark_Butler_MP: Federal Labor has reaffirmed its commitment to ending the carbon tax as long as it’s replaced with an ETS: http://t.co/YgL10MPO5c

    I do not understand the strategy over the auctions. Glad of this.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:42 pm

  38. Hi Victoria, thanks but that link is for the recent one (24 Feb). Here is the 11 feb one…
    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5426-morgan-poll-february-11-2014-201402110243
    no state breakdowns.

    by Simon Katich on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:42 pm

  39. Market in the negative:

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 11m

    After 7 sessions of gains & a test of 6 year highs the All Ords is now in negative territory. All Ords dn 6pts 5443. AUDUS90.18c #ausbiz ^JS

    John Laws should be in jail:

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 17s

    John Laws asking a child abuse victim if it was her fault ruled a ‘clumsy attempt to show empathy and support’ http://bit.ly/1hrHK9L

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:45 pm

  40. Mark Butler’s statement (guytaur, follow the link!)

    The voluntary auction would have no impact on the introduction of Labor’s ETS.

    It is clear business would not have participated in this auction, given the uncertainty in the market created by the Government’s attempt to dismantle Labor’s clean energy policy.

    (But I’m still not sure whether this was the right call, symbolically, at least…)

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:45 pm

  41. Simon Katich

    I dont know why the breakdowns are not set out in the earlier poll

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:46 pm

  42. zoidlord@378

    So, it’s not 1k jobs, not 3k jobs going, but Qantas now denying 5k jobs.

    I want 2 Qantas jobs to go. Alan Joyce and Leigh Clifford.

    by bemused on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:46 pm

  43. BB

    Pell’s appointment makes him the Pope’s chief earthly combination of go-to man, can-do man, and headkicker.

    Pell will be the corporate equivalent of the CEO of the Holy See. His duties would be something like the equivalent in Australia of the Minister and Secretary of PM&C as well as of Treasury and of Finance; head of the public service commission, head of the reserve bank, head of the equivalent of our big four banks, as head of the ACCC and ICAC.

    Think No 2 on Earth.

    The Vatican equivalents of all these institutions were, and are, a major shambles. Crooks and liars abound. Benedict XVI had lost control thereof which is why he had to go. His Holiness just did not cut it.

    Pell’s rise represents a major, major promotion from being just a Cardinal of some backwater country.

    In heavenly terms, Pell remains a Cardinal – and not even a primus inter pares. A cardinal is a cardinal is a cardinal.

    But, but, but… Pell is nicely positioned to rack up support for his forthcoming tilt at becoming Papa di Cosa Nostra Catholica should doG, doG forbid, call the incumbent to his heavenly reward.

    Pell’s unpopularity amongst the faithful in Australia is irrelevant. The Vatican is theocratic dictatorship-for-life, not a democracy.

    Those interested in body language might want to give some thought to why Pell appears to spend so much time touching the parts of his face and his throat.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:50 pm

  44. A bit like forcing Nazis to dig the mass graves with shovels, and then to bury their own concentration camp victims.

    Bzzzzt.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:53 pm

  45. Hi Boerwar

    Were your ears burning today? I was asking after you. :D

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:55 pm

  46. Well, last state breakdown I can find is the federal election and for QLD it was 43-57 and Morgan now has it 52-48.

    by Simon Katich on Feb 25, 2014 at 1:59 pm

  47. Dave@364

    Of course, I agree with you.

    Bernard Keane in Crikey, hardly a shouter for Labor – or at least, that is my take on him – says – with tongue in cheek…..

    “Today’s Newspoll, inexplicably (ignored?) played down by The Australian…………”. Says it all I suppose.

    Not that it does the LNP much good as he concludes: “For a government only 6 months old, it’s an unusually poor outcome…..”

    Admittedly, I have taken his final comment out of context but his general theme is how poorly the new government has done to date – finishing up with 51-49 for Labor in the current Essential.

    The reality, even if the polls were 60-40 to Labor,is there is no change of government on the cards, as was the case in Gillard’s time.

    One does not have to be a conspiracy theorist to make any sense of this, just a cynical attitude will do.

    As I pointed out in an earlier post, no sad-sack picture of Abbott next to the poor poll, but some of Gillard’s and Rudd’s stuck on-line for days way back when.

    Apparently, the MSM have other things to talk about.

    by Tricot on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:01 pm

  48. pseph

    get over it. Just because a random on the internet decided that any reference to Nazi Germany was verbotten doesn’t mean anyone here should be bzzted for making analogies to Nazi Germany.

    If we DON’T make analogies to Nazi Germany, the danger is that we don’t stop it happening again.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:01 pm

  49. @KathViner: Revealed: G4S guard says he invited in PNG police dog squad before Manus riot http://t.co/TZ65jhjL21 via @GuardianAus

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:03 pm

  50. @oliverlaughland: Guard’s statement written at 8.37am on morning after riot; names Reza Barati http://t.co/BpyxX30F3l

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:04 pm

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