Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. @KathViner: Official incident log of Manus riot says G4S ‘lost control’ of local riot squad http://t.co/TZ65jhjL21

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:05 pm

  2. 397

    Hear, hear!

    by Tom the first and best on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:05 pm

  3. Oh, and he can reveal the terms upon which he’s on that blog as well.

    Peter writes blog posts and moderates their comments threads. In return, he gets money.

    by William Bowe on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:12 pm

  4. get over it. Just because a random on the internet decided that any reference to Nazi Germany was verbotten doesn’t mean anyone here should be bzzted for making analogies to Nazi Germany.

    I bzzzt them because it’s false, offensive and stupid to compare run-of-the-mill politicians, journalists, bloggers etc to Nazis. It’s also intellectually lazy. If Nazis is the only thing people here have in their library of historical analogies, they need to do some reading.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:21 pm

  5. No sane business is going to buy permits for 2014/15 financial year beforehand.

    The Hunt stunt is pointless.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:25 pm

  6. Psephos

    Nazi has come to mean a particular standard of evil. Mainly one propagated by Hollywood.

    So its a common symbol all get. So you will never stop people using the term.

    You are doing a King Canute.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:25 pm

  7. @Psephos/403

    Did you just happen to ignore what Labor was being called about this time last year? During Media laws?

    You are being an apologist for the boat policy.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:26 pm

  8. Nazi has come to mean a particular standard of evil. Mainly one propagated by Hollywood.

    So its a common symbol all get. So you will never stop people using the term.

    If you go around comparing mainstream politicians to Nazis, normal, reasonable people will quite rightly laugh at you. It’s possible to be shielded from this reality when you’re commenting on a blog, so you’d do well to take Psephos’s reality check on board.

    by William Bowe on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:29 pm

  9. ...get over it. Just because a random on the internet decided that any reference to Nazi Germany was verbotten...

    OMG PSEPHOS YOU’RE SO RANDOM!!!!!!!!!

    by ShowsOn on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:29 pm

  10. SO is having trouble with his caps lock key again. Time for a new keyboard, comrade.

    by don on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:30 pm

  11. Fine, pseph – then run that argument. Just referring to Godwin’s is equally lazy.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  12. William

    As always it depends on the use. Eg Iran executing gay people can be compared to the Nazis doing the same.

    To say that trying to regulate media laws makes a party like Murdoch’s Daily Telegraph did rightly got laughed at.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:32 pm

  13. Oh, and I’m not arguing whether or not the poster in this case used a dodgy analogy. I’m just getting tired of every reference to Nazi-ism being dismissed out of hand.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:32 pm

  14. Seems the Focus Group has given Abbott and Co one thing to talk about. Carbon Tax, even boats has floated away.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:33 pm

  15. Sorry hit post in editing stage.

    To say that trying to regulate media laws is akin to being Nazis like Murdoch’s Daily Telegrah did rightly got it laughed at

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:35 pm

  16. Seems the Focus Group has given Abbott and Co one thing to talk about. Carbon Tax, even boats has floated away.

    Well it was a dud focus group then. Or the people interpreting the focus group were duds.

    by madcyril on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:35 pm

  17. Seems the Focus Group has given Abbott and Co one thing to talk about. Carbon Tax, even boats has floated away.

    They’re still trying to re-run the election campaign because they aren’t sure what to do.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:38 pm

  18. Green Army coming to you soon.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/green-army-bill-approved-by-coalition/story-fni0xqi4-1226836980421

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:41 pm

  19. Bourke got the construction company donation into Hansard.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:41 pm

  20. Labor 51 / Coalition 49
    http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_140225.pdf

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:41 pm

  21. Big Business behind FWA Laws review:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/business-figure-to-help-lead-sweeping-review-of-fair-work-laws-20140220-334db.html

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:48 pm

  22. That would be the same focus groups which underpinned Abbott’s three word slogans, his hokiness (‘whimp’), and his destruction of Turnbull version 1, Rudd version 1, Gillard and Rudd version 2.

    Abbott sticks to his strengths. Abbott just loves Labor yapping about the carbon tax and boats. He knows perfectly well that they are 9/10ths symbol and 1/10th substance.

    Labor needs to start talking about jobs, COL, falling purchase power, the national interest, climate change damage, and jobs, jobs, jobs, the COL and falling purchase power for ordinary Australians and jobs.

    Falling MUM and DAD purchase power/higher COL is a political gimme as the Australia dollar heads to the 60-70 cent range, as it will over the life of the Abbott Government. Abbottabetz’s efforts to drive down take home pay will make it worse.

    After all, most of what we buy is made somewhere else. And that is going to get worse the longer the Abbott Government is around to destroy manufacturing jobs.

    The carbon tax will be gone come mid year and then it will be jobs, increasing COL and the declining puchase power of Mums and Dads.

    Asylum seeker issues can safely left to the combined tender mercies of Hanson-Young and Morrison. The former is always going to out-complain Labor on asylum seekers, and the latter is always going to be more brutal than Labor on asylum seekers.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:49 pm

  23. You are doing a King Canute.

    Is this the most mis-used expression in English?

    Poor Cnut was trying to demonstrate to his over-blown courtiers that kings had limited powers e.g. over the forces of nature.

    'Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws.'

    by swamprat on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:51 pm

  24. swamprat
    That tide thing and the spelling of his name: a lot for which to answer.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:53 pm

  25. Boer

    Labor needs to start talking about jobs, COL, falling purchase power, the national interest, climate change damage, and jobs, jobs, jobs, the COL and falling purchase power for ordinary Australians and jobs.

    Exactly what Shorten is doing.

    The carbon tax will be gone come mid year ..

    Probably not. Even if the new Senate acts with a lightning speed unseen in Senates formerly, it’d be very difficult to get around to it before September, which would make repealing it fairly pointless.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:53 pm

  26. :-)

    by swamprat on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:53 pm

  27. Lucky there was no ‘spell check’ in Cnut’s time.

    by swamprat on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:54 pm

  28. Dutton is a major league farqtard.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:55 pm

  29. Does anyone get the impression that this government basically thinks that if it gets the population afraid of asylum seekers and solves that problem it will also be able to get the population to swallow whatever libertarian solutions it wants. Its strategy is basically the same as the Repug’s “bait and switch” approach in the US (except, for guns, religion and race, substitute “asylum seekers”).
    But this strategy depends upon:
    1. its asylum seeker policy being successful; AND
    2. voters worrying more about asylum seekers than the liberal’s libertarian agenda.
    I don’t think that the libs will succeed with either 1 or 2.
    But if they don’t succeed, will they pivot away from their libertarian instincts. I doubt it. They’re too dumb and crazy.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:55 pm

  30. Does anyone get the impression that this government basically thinks that if it gets the population afraid of asylum seekers and solves that problem it will also be able to get the population to swallow whatever libertarian solutions it wants.

    The QLD Bikie Plan but on a national stage? It won’t work.

    by davidwh on Feb 25, 2014 at 2:57 pm

  31. His son was Harthacanute, and his grandson was only a Quartercanute. (With acknowledgement to Sellars and Yateman)

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:00 pm

  32. Count me amongst those who finds the careless use of the term “nazi” both intellectually and ethically offensive.

    My previous remarks on Godwins stand however. Sometimes, “bringing up the Nazis” is reasonable — just not nearly as often as one sees it on the internet.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:03 pm

  33. pseph

    re read that only yesterday…and he had a dubious son who was only Rathacanute.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:04 pm

  34. sortius ‏@sortius 6m

    “Almost every internet user (97%) accessed the internet from home during 2012–13″ this is why we need FTTP #auspol #NBN

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:06 pm

  35. His grandpappy was Harald Bluetooth after whom the wireless ” Bluetooth” system was named.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:09 pm

  36. Interestingly, the name Canute (also Cnut or Knut) is a word for “knot” and in Old Norse “knob” as well– so not quite a misspelled cnut. … ;-)

    In Old English — cnotta …

    The name may well have been metaphoric, since the use of the word “cnotta” for “a difficult problem” (think Gordian Knot) was around in the language at the time. Then again, there’s also the sense in which the King “ties disparate tribes together”.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:11 pm

  37. His grandpappy was Harald Bluetooth after whom the wireless ” Bluetooth” system was named.

    There was a relative called Eric Bloodaxe. They don’t name kings like they used to.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:13 pm

  38. swamprat

    Kiwi cricketer Bob Cunis caused a very good cricketing call.

    ....commentator Alan Gibson once commented, "This is Cunis at the Vauxhall End. Cunis, a funny sort of name: neither one thing nor the other

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:13 pm

  39. Lucky he wasn’t Harald Celtscourge.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:14 pm

  40. Psephos

    At least you’d know exactly where you stood with Mr Bloodaxe.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:16 pm

  41. NHS death rates, to be ignored:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26329750

    Way of the future.

    Death are ignored.

    NHS patient record sold:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10656893/Hospital-records-of-all-NHS-patients-sold-to-insurers.html

    Prostate Cancer but NHS won’t offer it:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2566904/Prostate-cancer-breakthrough-NHS-wont-offer-It-spare-men-like-Joe-effects-treatment-So-available-abroad.html

    Continued failed health system in UK.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:19 pm

  42. I have some sympathy with Psephos ojn the use of the term Nazi about people or specific actions but NOT when people discuss the rise of the Nazis in the context of the gradual loss of freedoms and growth of corporatism etc. Most of the actions of Hitler et al were (are) fairly typical of most totalitarian dictatorships and this term should be used. When extreme nationalism is added to the picture, combined with a strong leaning towards the business eltite then the term Fascism is more appropriate. There are some specific acts of the Nazis which makes them stand out, essentially mass genocide of Communists, socialists, Jews, Gypsys and the disabled.

    So here is my quick summary

    Totalitarian regimes can be of all kinds from dictatorships, monarchys, communist governments theocracies and even bizarrely democracies if the will of the majority suppresses freedoms.

    Fascist states are totalitarian (ie a subset of totalitarian states) but also strongly nationalistic and militaristic. They forge strong links with corporate and business elites and make no pretense of seeking for equality etc.

    a “Nazi” state is a subset of a fascist state, which is also racist and willing to commit genocide

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:20 pm

  43. Waste and Mismanagement by the Libs as usual.

    The Abbott government has spent $2.5 million on lifeboats to send asylum seekers intercepted at sea back to Indonesia.
    The figure, revealed in letters tabled in the Senate by Assistant Immigration Minister Michaelia Cash, indicates the government is paying more than $200,000 per lifeboat, each of which is understood to be used only once.
    Fairfax Media understands the government has so far bought about 12 of the boats. It has used at least three of them.
    Advertisement
    Senator Cash released the information in response to orders by the opposition to produce documents lodged in the Senate.
    The figure of more than $200,000 per lifeboat appears to represent a considerable mark-up on the starting price quoted by the Chinese manufacturer. A spokeswoman for the Chinese maker, Jiangyinshi Beihai, has previously told Fairfax Media the lifeboats are priced at US$41,000 (A$45,500) before modifications and freight.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-spends-25m-on-lifeboats-to-return-asylum-seekers-to-indonesia-20140225-33f0n.html#ixzz2uIvaHmk3

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:20 pm

  44. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 17s

    Newman government media release – buy a balloon to thank firefighters http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2014/2/25/buy-a-red-balloon-to-thank-a-firefighter … After calling them fakes and strippers

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:21 pm

  45. I hope he sticks with this and forgets Howard was the greatest Keynesian when it suited him, increasing taxes and throwing money at whatever was hurting electorally in an election year. Howard was only saved by residual Keating-factor animosity towards the ALP in 1998 (Howard lost the popular vote), Tampa and 9/11 in 2001 – and Latham in 2004. If the ALp is disciplined Abbott will be a single termer if he doesn’t move back to the centre.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bitter-medicine-will-work-like-it-did-for-howard-tony-abbott-tells-party-room-20140225-33eyg.html

    by sustainable future on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:23 pm

  46. @DTR/441

    Problem with Psephos argument is that….

    We have a government that is anti-worker, anti-consumer.
    We have a government who is anti-internet (Slow internet + Piracy crackdown).
    We have a government who is hell bent on use of military use to deal with “unwanteds”.
    We have a government who is pro big business, and the use of total secrecy of private negotiations to sell out Australia to USA interests – via TPP Agreement.

    March 2013 Tony Abbott called Labor, “Soviet”.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:25 pm

  47. ruawake@442

    Waste and Mismanagement by the Libs as usual.


    The Abbott government has spent $2.5 million on lifeboats to send asylum seekers intercepted at sea back to Indonesia.
    The figure, revealed in letters tabled in the Senate by Assistant Immigration Minister Michaelia Cash, indicates the government is paying more than $200,000 per lifeboat, each of which is understood to be used only once.
    Fairfax Media understands the government has so far bought about 12 of the boats. It has used at least three of them.
    Advertisement
    Senator Cash released the information in response to orders by the opposition to produce documents lodged in the Senate.
    The figure of more than $200,000 per lifeboat appears to represent a considerable mark-up on the starting price quoted by the Chinese manufacturer. A spokeswoman for the Chinese maker, Jiangyinshi Beihai, has previously told Fairfax Media the lifeboats are priced at US$41,000 (A$45,500) before modifications and freight.


    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-spends-25m-on-lifeboats-to-return-asylum-seekers-to-indonesia-20140225-33f0n.html#ixzz2uIvaHmk3

    I am waiting for the first of those lifeboats to turn up at Christmas Island with a load of AS.

    They seem to be considerably more seaworthy than the other boats that have been used.

    by bemused on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:26 pm

  48. Good point! Hitler was of course very anti-internet.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:28 pm

  49. Dutton is not trying to defend his Assistant Minister. Maybe he cannot.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:29 pm

  50. I have to admit the purchase of the lifeboats was pretty smart for a government that has been short on smarts. It sure does away with the contention that they wouldn’t be able to tow back leaky boats which would sink in the process. On that score they trumped all the experts.

    by davidwh on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:30 pm

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