Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. I have to admit the purchase of the lifeboats was pretty smart for a government that has been short on smarts. It sure does away with the contention that they wouldn’t be able to tow back leaky boats which would sink in the process. On that score they trumped all the experts.

    That’s true, we were all wrong about that. Although I expect it was the Navy’s idea not anyone’s in the government.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:32 pm

  2. davidwh@449

    I have to admit the purchase of the lifeboats was pretty smart for a government that has been short on smarts. It sure does away with the contention that they wouldn’t be able to tow back leaky boats which would sink in the process. On that score they trumped all the experts.

    Given the way they have managed to piss of the Indonesians, your definition of ‘pretty smart’ must differ radically from mine.

    This has yet to play out and it could get very ugly.

    by bemused on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:34 pm

  3. Andrew Greene ‏@AndrewBGreene 9m

    Head of @AusCustomsNews reveals government has already spent 2.5 million on lifeboats for Operation Sovereign Borders, prepared to buy more

    by frednk on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:34 pm

  4. Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 7m

    on now in #nbn #estimates with Dr Ziggy: http://aph.gov.au/live

    Ziggy relying on 2020 tech to deliver triple digit numbers for FTTN.

    In otherwords – your not going to get it.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:35 pm

  5. Lloyd Blakeley ‏@aziazone 1h

    Madame Speaker my question is to the Minister For Science, oh shit, there is not one….apologies Madame Shrieker… #QT.

    by frednk on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:36 pm

  6. Sushil Ramrakha ‏@SushilRamrakha 14m

    Abbott claims Berati lost his life because of illegal people smuggling … no, he was murdered under Aust Govts care #auspol

    by frednk on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:36 pm

  7. Conroy being counter-productive today from what I can see.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:39 pm

  8. Something of a reverse intellectual snobbery to look down the snout at others who invoke the state of Germany say from 1930 onwards.

    It is just so cute, but a bit passe I would have thought, to condemn the arguments of others because they fall back on “what happened in Nazi Germany” as some indication of their bankruptcy of examples to use.

    The fascination of post WW1 Germany was the fact that such a so-say sophisticated and modern country could use a democratic process to bestow dictatorial powers on an elite led by a social misfit.

    I am happy to dip into this time from time to time for examples.

    Here is a current one.

    I see the word “decent” has been thrown up to describe the actions of one of two politicians in the face of carrying out some not so decent policies currently in Oz.

    Interestingly in Germany, those who took on, or were given the task of operating places like Auschwitz were praised by their leaders for still being “decent” Germans despite the indecency of their actions.

    While, not for one minute accepting what is current Oz 2014 can be compared with Poland in 1942-44, it is uncanny the word “decent” pops up, used by some to protect the integrity of those tasked with unpleasant/unpopular or otherwise activities.

    I would think it is reasonable enough to point to this as an interesting side light to the use of the word “decent”.

    by Tricot on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:42 pm

  9. Ha ha ha. The Nationals lob up Michael McCormack to say Nash is liked by a person in Temora.

    He wouldn’t know health from a dung heap.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:45 pm

  10. Quite a good line

    Zuvele Leschen ‏@ZuveleLeschen 1h

    Abbott: “the fiscal mess the members opposite left….” – if we come out of your govt with 3 Triple A ratings, it’ll be a miracle #qt

    by frednk on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:46 pm

  11. Good to see some journos starting to rumble over this.

    Manus Island: How information is kept 'under control'

    I've seen some censorship in my 20-plus years as a journalist reporting from Australia and various countries in the Asia Pacific region.

    But what I saw on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea has made me uneasy about press freedom in the Pacific and the Australian Government's approach to reporting on the detention centre.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/manus-island-how-information-is-kept-under-control-20140225-33eob.html#ixzz2uJ1V1f00

    [

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:46 pm

  12. I have to admit the purchase of the lifeboats was pretty smart for a government that has been short on smarts. It sure does away with the contention that they wouldn’t be able to tow back leaky boats which would sink in the process. On that score they trumped all the experts.

    At the cost of trashing the diplomatic relationship with Indonesia which no-one thought they would be stupid enough to do.

    Lesson there is never to underestimate the stupidity of a Liberal or the disgusting depths of behaviour which they will plumb, and to realise EVERYTHING, including the national interest, and that of their constituents is subordinate to their need to be in power at any cost.

    by imacca on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:49 pm

  13. Given the way they have managed to piss of the Indonesians, your definition of ‘pretty smart’ must differ radically from mine.

    This has yet to play out and it could get very ugly.

    Old comrade I obviously meant smart from a logistical sense. The whole border protection policy lacks overall smarts but then it has been thus for a long time.

    by davidwh on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:50 pm

  14. Retweeted by Scott Ludlam
    350Australia ‏@350Australia 3m

    RT @simondivecha: Estimated changes in days of hi to catastrophic fire danger. Aust #climate http://www.ecotide.com.au/be-prepared-climate-change-and-the-australian-bushfire-threat … pic.twitter.com/FW9lv3vSM9

    Interesting graph.

    Also NBN dude referred the FTTN trials in Epping to have ‘sufficient’ copper pairs.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:50 pm

  15. A very good article; someone that was at Manus when the beatings and killing occured.

    https://medium.com/p/68b2a3603d98

    by frednk on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:52 pm

  16. The threat from a “Senior Indonesian Politician” stating that the Indonesian elections will meddle in Australia, like the Australian election meddled in Indonesia is ominous.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:53 pm

  17. poroti@460

    Good to see some journos starting to rumble over this.

    Its also why certain journos are putting the boot into morrison – it was all just a matter of when they got him.

    He will get bugger all leeway in future with stuff ups and secrecy as well.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:58 pm

  18. Psephos

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

    get over it. Just because a random on the internet decided that any reference to Nazi Germany was verbotten doesn’t mean anyone here should be bzzted for making analogies to Nazi Germany.

    I bzzzt them because it’s false, offensive and stupid to compare run-of-the-mill politicians, journalists, bloggers etc to Nazis. It’s also intellectually lazy. If Nazis is the only thing people here have in their library of historical analogies, they need to do some reading.

    ———————————————-

    To provide an opposite views of Psephos and others arguements – For anyone interested I suggest you get a copy of a book titled :

    Hitler’s Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust by Daniel Jonah Goldhagen

    This groundbreaking international bestseller lays to rest many myths about the Holocaust: that Germans were ignorant of the mass destruction of Jews, that the killers were all SS men, and that those who slaughtered Jews did so reluctantly. Hitler’s Willing Executioners provides conclusive evidence that the extermination of European Jewry engaged the energies and enthusiasm of tens of thousands of ordinary Germans. Goldhagen reconstructs the climate of “eliminationist anti-Semitism” that made Hitler’s pursuit of his genocidal goals possible and the radical persecution of the Jews during the 1930s popular. Drawing on a wealth of unused archival materials, principally the testimony of the killers themselves, Goldhagen takes us into the killing fields where Germans voluntarily hunted Jews like animals, tortured them wantonly, and then posed cheerfully for snapshots with their victims. From mobile killing units, to the camps, to the death marches, Goldhagen shows how ordinary Germans, nurtured in a society where Jews were seen as unalterable evil and dangerous, willingly followed their beliefs to their logical conclusion.

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 3:59 pm

  19. imacca
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    Lesson there is never to underestimate the stupidity of a Liberal or the disgusting depths of behaviour which they will plumb, and to realise EVERYTHING, including the national interest,

    Same with some of them who post here.

    (Not you davidwh).

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:03 pm

  20. What has Goldhagen’s book got to do with the point we were discussing?

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:03 pm

  21. CTar1@456

    Conroy being counter-productive today from what I can see.

    Situation normal in other words.

    by bemused on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:05 pm

  22. Psephos

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    What has Goldhagen’s book got to do with the point we were discussing?

    —————————————————

    I just made the point a week or so ago – that it is possible within an collection of ORDINARY people to find a WILLING GROUP of people willing to committ ANY crime at the behest of a leader – I used the example Einzengruppen.

    I see that such an analgous group of people can be found in ANY population even today – hence the point of NEVER letting it happen today …… hence reference to examples in recent history …..

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:09 pm

  23. And that makes it OK to compare Cardinal Pell to Nazis digging mass graves, does it? (That was the original post I objected to.)

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:11 pm

  24. As Tricot related – talk back is full of people who say about AS – “machine gun them on the beaches – to set an example to the rest” of them and other equally disturbing statements ….. in other words the “willing executioners” ….

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:14 pm

  25. Anyway you’re wrong about the Einsatzgruppen (note spelling). They were not “ordinary men.” They were hand-picked volunteers highly committed to National Socialist ideology. Most of their commanders had doctorates. You’re confusing them with the Reserve Police Battalions described by Christopher Browning in his book “Ordinary Men.”

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:14 pm

  26. Badcat

    To be fair to P, I think his main gripe is the “Look what the Nazis did” throwback is all some people use and secondly, he makes the point, as others have, that comparisons between then and now are not tenable.

    I beg to differ, in principle, on this matter and the wanton destruction of human life in Kosovo and many African countries shows what mankind was capable of in the 1940s, is capable of now and will be in the future.

    The salient feature was that Germany was supposed to be a Christian (the home of Protestantism and a strong Catholic church in places like Bavaria), advanced economy with a long history of culture and civility.

    How quickly some in Oz, describe this place as a “Christian country” for instance?

    The fact that many German Jews banked on this as some kind of protection for themselves – not to mention their loyalty to the German state/monarchy in 1914-18, at the time, shows how thin such civilized veneers were then and are now.

    by Tricot on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:15 pm

  27. Roy Morgan ‏@roymorganonline 6m

    ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell a further 1.4% last week (ending 23 February) to 110.4. http://ow.ly/tXRxw #auspol #ausbiz

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 10m

    Local market set to close lower after testing 6 yr highs in early trade. Heading in to match-off All Ords dn 9.9pts 5440. AUD US90.3c ^JS

    People have less confidence now in the economy.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:15 pm

  28. “Fiscal Holocaust” in Reps from uninspiring Mrs Prentice. Just sayin’. ;)

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:16 pm

  29. Pyne delays Govt. business to discuss Thomson. They need a headline badly, not gunna get one on this until 18th March Poodle.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:18 pm

  30. what was the quote :

    Those who ignore history are bound to repeat it?

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:18 pm

  31. ru

    was she the one who looked thrilled after she asked Malcy a question today?

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:18 pm

  32. And that makes it OK to compare Cardinal Pell to Nazis digging mass graves, does it?

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:20 pm

  33. And badcat…further to you point…on one of the many docos on the concentrations camps over the years – quite often produced by Germans themselves – the said docs point out how few of the many thousands of guards actually paid any kind of price for their actions.

    What is depressing when you view these programs (most of the participants dead by now I would think) is the number who did not think what they did was wrong, or they were following orders or they saw themselves as being able to remain ‘decent’ when all around was decadent.

    I am under no illusions that given the circumstances it could happen all over again – anywhere – and the fact that some on talk-back radio openly call for the “shooting of the bastards on the beach” or adopting an out-of-sight-out-of-mind attitude to what is happening with the AS, is hardly anything to take pride in.

    by Tricot on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:21 pm

  34. Psephos

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Anyway you’re wrong about the Einsatzgruppen (note spelling). They were not “ordinary men.” They were hand-picked volunteers highly committed to National Socialist ideology. Most of their commanders had doctorates. You’re confusing them with the Reserve Police Battalions described by Christopher Browning in his book “Ordinary Men.”

    —————————————————–

    I was not there so I can only rely on what I read from various sources :

    Goldhagen’s gripping and shocking landmark study transforms our understanding of the Holocaust. Refuting the widespread notion that those who carried out the genocide of Jews were primarily SS men or Nazi party members, he demonstrates that the perpetrators?those who staffed and oversaw the concentration camps, slave labor camps, genocidal army units, police battalions, ghettos, death marches?were, for the most part, ordinary German men and women: merchants, civil servants, academics, farmers, students, managers, skilled and unskilled workers. Rejecting the conventional view that the killers were slavishly carrying out orders under coercion, Goldhagen, assistant professor of government at Harvard, uses hitherto untapped primary sources, including the testimonies of the perpetrators themselves, to show that they killed Jews willingly, approvingly, even zealously.

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:22 pm

  35. “Fiscal Holocaust” in Reps from uninspiring Mrs Prentice. Just sayin’.

    Holocaust as a common noun is a perfectly acceptable word. It means “mass destruction, most commonly by fire.” It’s not the same as “The Holocaust” as a specific historical reference. Neverthless, its use a common noun has declined because (most) people are sensitive about the specific meaning it has acquired.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:24 pm

  36. Bitter medicine will work, says Abbott
    PM reassures nervous Coalition MPs following significant dip in the government’s standing in the polls

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bitter-medicine-will-work-like-it-did-for-howard-tony-abbott-tells-party-room-20140225-33eyg.html

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:25 pm

  37. Goldhagen’s statement is correct as a general statement about the German perpetrators. The point is amply demonstrated in “Ordinary Men” (which is a much better book by the way). It’s not correct about the Einsatzgruppen, and he doesn’t (in that passage anyway) say that it is.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:26 pm

  38. badcat

    Many historians say Goldhagen is a muppet and his book is a load of cobblers.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:27 pm

  39. Is lying to the House an offence? I don’t think it is. (It is in Qld with regards to committees) It is not a contempt either. The business of the House must have been injured.

    Pyne drawing a long bow.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:27 pm

  40. Badcat – it might have been George Santayana….”Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it” as I understand the quote.

    However, I suspect it has been said by others in near similar words over the years.

    by Tricot on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:29 pm

  41. @Victoria/485

    Hmmm not good. Nervous backbenchers are a worry. They start to go off message and leak. No doubt many are getting calls etc from angry/worried constituents regarding issues such as jobs and the overall state of the economy.

    Given that there more or less has been unrelenting bad news on the economy, climate and other issues for some months now it will be interesting to see how the months and weeks leading up to what will undoubtably be a brutal budget. That said upcoming state polls in Tas and SA and the Senate election MkII will be litmus tests.

    by Steven Grant Haby on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:29 pm

  42. And as objectionable as are the claims made about the world by Cardinal Pell, there is no sense in which one can fairly call him a Nazi.

    He’s a conservative and on some matters a reactionary puffed up by his sense of importance at his title. He shows either massive ignorance or a reckless willingness to utter nonsense in pursuit of his battalions in the culture war. His dealing over institutional abuse was self-serving and shameful.

    But a Nazi, even incipiently? No, there’s simply no case for him to answer on that.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:30 pm

  43. Local market set to close lower after testing 6 yr highs in early trade. Heading in to match-off All Ords dn 9.9pts 5440. AUD US90.3c ^JS

    People have less confidence now in the economy.

    Don’t see the connection

    by shellbell on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:30 pm

  44. I also recommend a more up to date book on so called “willing executioners :

    Kill Anything That Moves by Nick Turse

    Americans have long been taught that events such as the notorious My Lai massacre were isolated incidents in the Vietnam War, carried out by just a few “bad apples.” But as award-winning journalist and historian Nick Turse demonstrates in this groundbreaking investigation, violence against Vietnamese noncombatants was not at all exceptional during the conflict. Rather, it was pervasive and systematic, the predictable consequence of official orders to “kill anything that moves.”

    Drawing on more than a decade of research into secret Pentagon archives and extensive interviews with American veterans and Vietnamese survivors, Turse reveals for the first time the workings of a military machine that resulted in millions of innocent civilians killed and wounded—what one soldier called “a My Lai a month.” Devastating and definitive, Kill Anything That Moves finally brings us face-to-face with the truth of a war that haunts America to this day.

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:30 pm

  45. Many historians say Goldhagen is a muppet and his book is a load of cobblers.

    That’s true but I wasn’t going to divert the discussion into that. The passage Badcat has quoted is broadly accurate.

    But my question was: how does any of that justify comparing Cardinal Pell to Nazis digging mass graves?

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:31 pm

  46. The federal government’s move to amend the Qantas Sale Act and lift foreign ownership restrictions is commendable, but in practical terms it will have no effect unless enough members of Labor, the Greens and the Palmer United Party break ranks.
    As it stands, changes to the Qantas Sale Act have little hope of passing in this Senate or the next one, which sits for three years from July.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-foreign-ownership-push-will-hit-turbulence-in-senate-20140225-33fba.html#ixzz2uJDVeJWo

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:31 pm

  47. ru

    Is lying to the House an offence? I don’t think it is.

    It is. It comes under contempt of parliament.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:33 pm

  48. Steven GH

    Abbott is relying on his RC into union corruption and insulation scheme to bash Labor and garner more support for the coalition

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:33 pm

  49. Consumer group Choice gets tough over Food website takedown and runs the ruler over food giant Mondelez International that once had the Australian Public Affairs as spinners when axed COS Furnival was CEO
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-25/choice-mondelez-food-labelling-website-controversy/5283018

    by Steven Grant Haby on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:35 pm

  50. Logie award winning stuff in the HoR…

    by Rex Douglas on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:35 pm

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