Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
  1. An exclusive investigation has revealed a former ALP politician was working as a Safety and Security officer at the Manus Island detention centre during a violent riot that killed one asylum seeker and left 77 injured.

    Former Queensland Labor Member of the Legislative Assembly was employed by GS4 at the now notorious offshore processing centre, and was present during the bloody and chaotic event.

    https://medium.com/p/68b2a3603d98

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:36 pm

  2. It is. It comes under contempt of parliament.

    I couldn’t find where it does, that’s why I asked. A minister deliberately misleading the House (ie Lying) gets sacked as a minister but no other action is taken.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:36 pm

  3. badcat
    I have been convinced for some time that war crimes were SOP at some times and in some places for Australian troops in Vietnam.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:36 pm

  4. Psephos

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    Many historians say Goldhagen is a muppet and his book is a load of cobblers.

    That’s true but I wasn’t going to divert the discussion into that. The passage Badcat has quoted is broadly accurate.

    But my question was: how does any of that justify comparing Cardinal Pell to Nazis digging mass graves?

    ———————————————

    Psephos

    I am NOT questioning your Cardinal Pell remark – in fact I have not even mentioned it nor am even interested in it . I am just disputing that just because someone makes a comparison to something that happened in Nazi Germany does NOT automatically disbar a comparison being made ( as YOU are implying ) – as history repeats IF it is not recognised and acted upon … thats ALL I was trying to say

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:41 pm

  5. Logie award winning stuff in the HoR…

    My eldest daughter is there on a school excursion tomorrow.

    by shellbell on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:41 pm

  6. Lying to a committee is a contempt, a member lying in a speech? I cannot find where it is.

    Oh and any decision by the Privileges Committee can be appealed to the courts (if you have any money).

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:41 pm

  7. ru

    This is the law,

    [Section 4 of the 1987 Act defines contempt as:

    Conduct (including the use of words)...[which] amounts, or is intended or likely to amount, to an improper interference with the free exercise by a House or committee of its authority or functions, or with the free performance by a member of the member’s duties as a member.
    ]

    The argument is that lying to parliament improperly interferes with the free function of the House.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:41 pm

  8. The ridiculous Nazi analogies are as odious to me as when Tony Abbott openly says the Labor Party is Stalinist. I believe he’s said this multiple times and to my knowledge has yet to be challenged.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:43 pm

  9. As for Pell, he comes from a Ballarat Irish Labor-voting family. He’s a republican, and like most Catholics would favour Labor’s economic and welfare policies to those of the Liberals. He is of course a conservative on issues like abortion, same-sex marriage and euthanasia. He also seems to be climate denialist. Like most of the senior prelates promoted by John Paul II, he’s essentially a bureaucrat, not an ideologue, and his main qualities are loyalty and orthodoxy. I also don’t think he’s terribly bright, as we saw when he tried to debate Dawkins. But to paint him as some sort of fanatical reactionary is quite wrong.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:43 pm

  10. Boerwar

    Did you catch this article ? Would be interested in your thoughts about it.

    “WE didn’t much enjoy being part of your election campaign and you won’t much enjoy being part of our election campaign.” .

    So says a very senior Indonesian, looking forward to parliamentary elections, as well as possibly two rounds of presidential elections, in Indonesia over the next eight months.

    Last week in Indonesia there was a kind of open season on Australia. Every single day the media, often enough on the front page, seemed to be running stories disobliging to Australia, and a range of Indonesian politicians and media commentators lined up to give us a whack.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/indonesias-war-of-words/story-e6frg6z6-1226836349520#

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:45 pm

  11. Dio

    It comes under contempt of parliament.

    I’m guilty.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:47 pm

  12. The argument is that lying to parliament improperly interferes with the free function of the House.

    Pretty flimsy grounds for a court to convict an MP on. A witness lying to a committee would be another matter.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:49 pm

  13. Diogenes

    The argument is that lying to parliament improperly interferes with the free function of the House.

    It’s arguable, but it would be a stretch, and inevitably, open a can of worms far more nasty than the benefit the regime gets out of going after Thomson.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:49 pm

  14. Pell is way too boring to be a ‘fanatical’ reactionary. A clipboard reactionary maybe.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:49 pm

  15. Diog

    The real quote.

    Conduct (including the use of words) does not constitute an offence against a House unless it amounts, or is intended or likely to amount, to an improper interference with the free exercise by a House or committee of its authority or functions, or with the free performance by a member of the member’s duties as a member.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:50 pm

  16. The use os Nazi with Pell was wrong. Even though it was only being used as a graphic analogy of a crime to be guilty of and to seek repentance etc.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:51 pm

  17. Psephos

    He also seems to be climate denialist.

    Indeed. Like a lot of the prelatery he transmutes absolute religious knowledge into superior secular science knowledge. It is a bit like turning bread into the body of Christ and wine into His blood.

    Pell’s ‘debate’ with Dawkins was pathetic.

    One of the interesting sidelights of Pell’s promotion is that the Pope is not letting their differences of opinion on climate change stop him from appointing Pell as his chief headkicker.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:51 pm

  18. Funny how looking for the original quote often reverses its meaning.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:51 pm

  19. A society has a problem when the thugs take over; to claim any society doesn’t have thugs is delusional.

    As long as Australia doesn’t have a “night of the long knives” we will be ok.

    by frednk on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:51 pm

  20. I am just disputing that just because someone makes a comparison to something that happened in Nazi Germany does NOT automatically disbar a comparison being made ( as YOU are implying ) – as history repeats IF it is not recognised and acted upon … thats ALL I was trying to say

    OK, fair enough. When an Australian politician starts organising boycotts of Jewish businesses, then you’ll be entitled to compare them to Nazis.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-senator-lee-rhiannon-stands-by-israel-boycott/story-fn59niix-1226124026224

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:54 pm

  21. Badcat@503:

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/20/hey-boat-people-go-and-eat-a-bag-of-hitler/

    by Douglas and Milko on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:55 pm

  22. ...by a member of the member’s duties as a member

    That part may be satisfied

    by shellbell on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:55 pm

  23. I forgot about that hideous Q&A with Dawkins and Pell. Was that the same episode with Dawkins and Fielding or was that yet another cringefest? They tend to blur together.

    Long since stopped watching that show, it’s simply horrible week in, week out.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:57 pm

  24. Poll results – shit in shit out….but otherwise no excuse to hang out postulating that it means anything.

    n=1 ( a million times) everyone hates Abbotts guts but they’re not too sure about Billy just yet

    by Kinkajou on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  25. 365
    Bushfire Bill

    I suspect the Pope’s rule in Rome is no absolute. Maybe Pell knows where a lot of bodies (of info) are buried?

    I’m just wondering whether the Pope hasn’t got something up his sleeve re. Pell.

    Pell is being pulled out of the frontline, and put under close supervision for his remaining career (or this pope’s remaining career, whichever is the shorter).

    He has been neutered.

    by Just Me on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  26. Interesting bit.

    It is not lawful in any court or tribunal to question the truth, motive, good faith, or intention of any person by reference to parliamentary proceedings, or to draw any inferences or conclusions from those proceedings.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  27. victoria Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 4:31 pm @ 495

    The federal government’s move to amend the Qantas Sale Act and lift foreign ownership restrictions is commendable, but in practical terms it will have no effect unless enough members of Labor, the Greens and the Palmer United Party break ranks.
    As it stands, changes to the Qantas Sale Act have little hope of passing in this Senate or the next one, which sits for three years from July.

    The Qantas Sake Act is not the reason Qantas are unable to raise capital. They have had no trouble in raising capital in the past when needed. The real reason Qantas are unable to raise capital is they are no longer seen as a good investment. Assuming that foreign investors are more gullible than local investors is not a sound management strategy going forward.

    by B.C. on Feb 25, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  28. ru

    That’s very strange. I quoted the aph website

    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Work_of_the_Parliament/Parliament_at_Work/Parliamentary_Privilege

    but the law actually defines contempt in the negative as you quoted.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:00 pm

  29. War crimes d atrocities discussion

    Yes i think WHOLE point about Germany and NAZIs is that it can happen anywhere, hence the need to be vigilant to protect free speech and basic human rights. Once a person or an institution breaks rules and behaves badly it is easily transferred to others. So if the police beat up or torture even a known and vicious killer who “deserves” it, it is as if a dam wall breaks and the behaviour rapidly becomes the norm for all sorts or people. So too with armies and treatment of prisoners.

    Also I have read somewhere that there is always a percentage of true psychopaths in any community and that war and conflict bring these people to the fore, often even into leadership roles. Call it the “Lord of the Flies” syndrome

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:01 pm

  30. I was present in Melbourne city’s QV when Socialist Alternative types were loudly blockading the Max Brenner hot chocolate cafe (because their parent company has been known to supply chocolate to Israeli troops). These strident, wild-eyed ideologues’ heads would have exploded if they saw the parallels everyone else did.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:02 pm

  31. “@SteveCannane: Tonight on #thedrum on @ABCNews24 @timwilsoncomau @PatsKarvelas & @BruceHaigh2 + @DanHannanMEP on freedom 6pm EDT repeat at 10.”

    Been a while since I have seen Haigh. His view on OSB is going to be interesting

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:02 pm

  32. The Australian did manage to spin this bad poll as a positive of the LNP:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/video/id-Nkb3l0azqcQS2gS5LmwtIOJo0_cxldLA

    by Mortlock on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:02 pm

  33. poroti

    IMHO that is Sheridan’s best article on Indonesia to date. Or maybe it is Sheridan’s least worst article to date.

    It was evident for some time that he had few real insights into what was going on over there, and that he was somewhat bereft of insider contacts. He has obviously visited Indonesia and this is making a significant difference to his writing. Sheridan can learn.

    While much of the article is insightful, Sheridan typically fails in two areas:

    (1) He does not acknowledge or document the real world consequences of the Abbott Government’s inept handling.

    (2) He does not outline the details of the Abbott Government’s inept handling.

    Rule No 1 for Sheridan is that Abbott Can Do No Wrong. While that remains Rule No 1, Sheridan’s credibility as foreign affairs editor for ‘The Australian’ is pap.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:04 pm

  34. So each orange disposablew life boat costs the taxpayer $200,000.

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:04 pm

  35. Kinkajou

    Yep the polls mean nothing. Abbott has 2 budgets and a hostile Senate to make them improve.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:06 pm

  36. Boerwar

    It was truly a surprise to find after reading it that the author was Sheridan.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:09 pm

  37. Just Me

    He (Pell) has been neutered.

    Rubbish.

    Pell has just been appointed wtte CEO of the Holy See. That makes him the second most powerful Roman Catholic in the WHOLE TEMPORAL WORLD – excluding, of course, matters of faith and morals.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:09 pm

  38. regarding popularity.

    A Prime Minister begging an Opposition Leader to scrap the tax is a look to make you popular how?

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:09 pm

  39. poroti

    Yep. Had the same experience.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:09 pm

  40. http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/20/hey-boat-people-go-and-eat-a-bag-of-hitler/

    I’m generally an admirer of First Dog, he manages to be very funny and very “left” without being a self-pitying whiner like Leunig. BUT here he falls into the same fallacy as most boatists, here and everywhere, of asserting that all those other Australians hate and/or fear boat arrivals, on grounds of race or religion or “otherness.” This is simply crap, but it’s obvious how this myth serves the emotional needs of the boatist minority. “We know we’re a minority, but that’s OK because the majority are all racists and xenophobes and bigots, so that turns our abject failure to win the debate on boat arrivals into a virtue, since it shows how non-racist and righteous we are.”

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:10 pm

  41. victoria
    cf your earlier post.

    I had comPelling reasons to put fingers to keyboard.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:10 pm

  42. victoria

    “So each orange disposablew life boat costs the taxpayer $200,000.”

    Let’s stop pretending this is an obscene amount of money. Compared to the cost of say, intercepting the boat, collecting the crew and all the passengers, transporting these people to Christmas Island, processing them, sending them to Nauru or Manus Island and keeping them there for a few years putting them in a seaworthy boat is chump change.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:10 pm

  43. Mortlock@531

    The Australian did manage to spin this bad poll as a positive of the LNP:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/video/id-Nkb3l0azqcQS2gS5LmwtIOJo0_cxldLA

    If that is all they can come up with, they are in real trouble.

    All he came up with was that the LNP had to bear the cost of a horror budget.

    Not surprising that the video wasn’t paywalled – who would pay money to see it?

    by don on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:11 pm

  44. “Arbeit Macht Frei” is true, ask anybody who doesn’t have a job and wants one.
    The Nazis lied.

    by Pipe Fitter on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:12 pm

  45. Boerwar

    “That makes him the second most powerful Roman Catholic in the WHOLE TEMPORAL WORLD – excluding, of course, matters of faith and morals.”

    That’s a victory of a kind.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:12 pm

  46. Boerwar

    So you have not been on a walkabout. :)

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:12 pm

  47. absolutetwaddle

    We still do not know the full cost of Dumping orange life boats on Indonesian shores.

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:13 pm

  48. and like most Catholics would favour Labor’s economic and welfare policies to those of the Liberals

    What bulldust!

    Not only is he a Tory apologist, Pell has presided over a massive cover up of child sexual abuse. I find your reference for him pointless and highly disingenuous.

    Good riddance, I say.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:13 pm

  49. I was present in Melbourne city’s QV when Socialist Alternative types were loudly blockading the Max Brenner hot chocolate cafe (because their parent company has been known to supply chocolate to Israeli troops). These strident, wild-eyed ideologues’ heads would have exploded if they saw the parallels everyone else did.

    I’ve seen them in action too. They give themselves away very badly. Their leaders are always careful to say they’re not anti-Semites, and they usually have a tame Jewish Trot to put in front of the TVs for cosmetic purposes. But the bulk of them are not only completely and utterly ignorant about Jewish and Israeli history and what’s actually going on in the Middle East, but also in the grip of a fanatical “anti-Zionism” which is indistinguishable in practice from anti-Semitism (especially to those on the receiving end of it).

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:15 pm

  50. “@ralphd2: RT @BernardKeane Never seen this before. Estimates shut down by govt chair to prevent Oppn asking questions. #auspol”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:15 pm

« | »