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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 24, 2014

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

As other pollsters find support for Labor trending downwards, Newspoll breaks ranks with the Abbott government's worst poll result since it came to power.

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The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1845 comments

1,845 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

  1. swamprat

    Psephos

    [Someone has now suggested to me that Reza Berati was in fact killed by other Iranian detainees under cover of the…]

    Who is this “someone”?

    Are you spreading malicious roomers against a recently dead person?

  2. zoidlord

    I think Psephos has just caved in to the whole Coalition Party boat policy.

  3. DisplayName

    He wrote it, Labor nicked it and the Coalition inherited it.

  4. swamprat

    To me, Psephos always writes like someone who has a detached cynical ruthless (possibly arrogant) personality.

  5. Psephos

    Glad to have got you all thinking. 🙂

    Night all.

  6. imacca

    [Yon 1777 beggars belief.

    I didn’t say I believed it. I reported that it is being said. I report, you decide.]

    Well, i can see Scrote seeing this as a great straw to grasp. And no doubt Mesma will weigh in with her extensive policy and intelligence experience……..

  7. fredex

    Psephos, I’d put that in pretty much the same company as Sattler’s justification for his question to Julia about Tim.

  8. DisplayName

    Nighty night.

  9. confessions

    [That still implies he risked his life on an asylum seeker boat headed to Australia.

    I find the idea to be unbelievable.]

    So do I. Why would the Iranian govt waste precious resources on a low-return operation of spying on the low number of boat arrivals heading for Australia?

    It simply defies logic.

  10. swamprat

    [Glad to have got you all thinking. 🙂

    Night all.]

    What garbage. So Israel Intelligence wants to plant a seed that everyone on here is supposed to “think” about!!!

    How transparent!!

  11. kezza2

    Psephos

    Runs away, while pretending he’s got everyone thankin’

    What a twat.

  12. crikey whitey

    ‘Glad to have got you all thinking.

    Night all.

    What arrogance, Psephos.

    At least you conceded last night that your boatism theories were dead in the water.

  13. Arrnea Stormbringer

    Don’t mind Psephos – he’s your average Labor Right hack, doesn’t give a fuck about principles or humanity, whatever gets votes gets his favour.

    It’s people like that that make the common folk distrust politicians.

  14. crikey whitey

    AS.

    One does mind people like Pshepos. He presents himself here as the all knowing arbiter of some one like Everything.

    I think he was quite reasonable in days past. Now he so up himself, condescending,judgmental, lofty of opinion.

    Who is he, to bullshit me.

  15. Fulvio Sammut

    Geez, I can’t wait to see News Limited and the Libs running Psephos’ line.

    Someone suggest it to Menzies House. Quick.

  16. mexicanbeemer

    Cardinal Pell is very suitable to run finances after all he has successfully avoided paying any tax despite leading a multibillion dollar business.

    And of course covering up for kiddy fiddlers and sacking injured workers.

  17. Fulvio Sammut

    Now you guys leave us grumpy old men alone!

  18. crikey whitey

    Yeah,Fulvio.

    I do wonder about Psephos’ loyalties.

  19. deblonay

    Re Vatican treaties
    _______________
    I understandd that there are no such extradition treaties with any state

    The people in the Vatiucan are mostly clergy like Pell employed there ,and a small staff of laymen and some women who do a range of duties involved with the daily running of the place/office works/catering/and general management tasks

    Only a few have Vatican passports

    There was an interesting BBC program a while back on this aspect…and a good restaurant for staff with great Italian food too…which I undersatnd the present Pope now uses…to the initial surprise of the staff

    BTW Pell already has great accomadation in “Domus Australia” the lovingly restored old apartment building he set up for Australian pilgims in Rome…at great cost,and many of the Australian Bishops refused to lumber their parishioners with that cost…

    He has a suite there and may well stay there when he takes up his Roman duties,though I guess there is accomadation in the Vatican too for senior clergy

    Onceon holidays in Rome my wife and I used the excellent Vatican Post Office,which has a reputation for actually delivering the mail
    I recall going to buy stamps in Rome for post cards only to be told that the Italian PO only had 100 Lira stamps which would have completely covered our messages on the Post cards..we walked to the Vatican and got the exact postage,and they all got delivered…”when in Rome…”

  20. crikey whitey

    Arrnea Stormbringer

    And what are your political leanings?

  21. mexicanbeemer

    deblonay

    What is the Vatican like to visit? i was thinking of including it in a bucket list of places to visit but it strikes me as being pretty restrictive.

  22. crikey whitey

    Mexicanbeemer

    A pretty black veil would work.

  23. deblonay

    Mexican Beemer re Vatican for a visit
    ______________________
    You can enter as a tourist at several places and pay to join a tour grou….
    The tour takes you to the Sistine Chapel…simply great place and awesome(to use a favourite word of several of my grandchildren)
    The tour also takes in the splendid Vatican Museum with a vast range of”stuff” including a host of gifts given to Popes by famous visitors..and one can have a nice lunch at a good cafeteria too

    I woukld recommend it as one of the great sights of Rome..and one can go into the great square in front of St Peter’s and also visit that amazing church

  24. Tom the first and best

    1814

    It has been alleged that the Pope eats at what is effectively the Vatican canteen, lining up to get food, as an anti-poisoning measure.

  25. Fulvio Sammut

    My assessment of Psephos is that he’s a convert to hard right Labor from student style leftism, and like most converts he’s a zealot in professing his relatively new assessment of old principles.

    You don’t have to accept everything he says, but you don’t have to take everything you disagree with personally either.

    He says what he thinks, and Devil take the consequences. That’s because he’s reached a stage in his life that for him there are probably no longer any consequences.

    That’s a happy place for most, when they come to terms with it.

    But for some, like me, and others on here with fixated mindsets, we come across as cantankerous and grumpy old men when we call it as we see it.

  26. crikey whitey

    Just to pull oneself into reality, of sorts.

    Actually referring to politics.

    I heard much earlier on tv news that there seemed to be some confusion about a couple of seats and boundaries.

    Which I scoffed at. As if one would not know which electorate they were in. Whatever, I paid little attention. Until speaking to my Mod Lib friend tonight (NO relation to Everything) who finds herself suddenly no longer in the Seat of Mitchell, but that of Elder.

    She has no notion of the candidates, apart from Digance and some other. But Digance was standing in my Federal electorate of Boothby last I knew. Which was pretty damn recent. My Mod Lib has no idea if there is even a Lib candidate. And she does keep up.

    Some stuff other about similar confusion in Norwood/Dunstan so renamed.

    And not to echo Stormmbringer. But gee.

  27. crikey whitey

    Fulvio

    But, I am a mere girl.

  28. mexicanbeemer

    Thanks Deb, The history of the Vatican is very interesting, many of the pope’s have been fascinating and the church’s role in history makes it a place of interest plus the architecture.

    CW

    A vail, mmm

  29. Fulvio Sammut

    Well, you can be a Grand Old Dame then.

    I’ve been on here long enough to have an assessment on you too!

  30. deblonay

    The Domus Australia_______And now …for your next Roman Holiday…,Domus Austalia…a truly lovely hotel/guest house run by Cardinal Pell…open to all faiths or none …(as long as you pay.).and it is not too expensive by Roman standards,,,but a splendid old restored building wth a great open courtyard and chapel built by a famous architect…it has the lot by the looks of the ads…
    and with an Australian clientale..and great Italian food too…Great work George Pell…so why don’t some people like you ???????????

  31. crikey whitey

    A veil, Mexicanbeemer.

    Fulvio. I do like you.

  32. deblonay

    The Domus Australia…in Rome…

    http://www.domusaustralia.org/

  33. deblonay

    Psephos has great difficulty…despite his scholarship..in accepting criticism of his right-wing labor views or of his passionate support for Israel

    I was described once as an idiot for a post I made re Israel…,and I haven’t yet forgotten or forgiven that slur

    I have had many criticism in life but no one has even called me an idiot

  34. absolutetwaddle

    Well Psephos, at best you’ll get a big, fat “told ya so” opportunity (as the late Christopher Hitchens said, one of life’s greatest pleasures) in the remote possibility that rumour turns out to be correct. Otherwise you’ll get the usual suspects jumping all over you should any other scenario be proven, which appears highly likely.

    On balance perhaps it would have been best to keep that one to yourself. 😉

  35. crikey whitey

    Referring to my discussion of candidates.

    My Mod Lib friend and I agree that none of the candidates have anything to offer in terms of life experience or even qualifications.

    I took the trouble the other day to phone the office of Sharman Stone. Offering my congratulations on a fight well fought. I firmly believe in community and livelihoods etc.

    Identified myself as a Labor voter and a South Australian. Sympathetic to local eg Spring Gully etc.

    I looked at Sharman Stone’s qualifications and experience while I was about it.

    Excellent. Unlike these wannabees I guess.

    I still lament the loss of Nicole Cornes, who really had what it takes.

  36. swamprat

    Fulvio

    [My assessment of Psephos is that he’s a convert to hard right Labor from student style leftism, and like most converts he’s a zealot in professing his relatively new assessment of old principles.]

    Maybe.

    My assessment is that he is the bumbling “Get Smart” of the Israeli Secret Police. 🙂

    Being pretend “Labour” is part of his cover.

  37. crikey whitey

    Swamprat.

    I read your earlier stuff on Psephos.

    He has gone to far!

    Cover is blown!

  38. crikey whitey

    Add an ‘o’

  39. crikey whitey

    Should I get Pirelli tyres for my car?

  40. absolutetwaddle

    swamprat

    “My assessment is that he is the bumbling “Get Smart” of the Israeli Secret Police.”

    Sorry, deblonay has already bestowed me with that title.

  41. swamprat

    haha 🙂

    why waste time on this infertile Psephotic subject

  42. zoidlord

    Another study for bonus wind farms that liberals won’t like:
    http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/february/hurricane-winds-turbine-022614.html

    “”We found that when wind turbines are present, they slow down the outer rotation winds of a hurricane,” Jacobson said. “This feeds back to decrease wave height, which reduces movement of air toward the center of the hurricane, increasing the central pressure, which in turn slows the winds of the entire hurricane and dissipates it faster.””

  43. imacca

    [Should I get Pirelli tyres for my car?]

    Only if they come with a calendar. 🙂

    Seriously, i had Pirelli Dakar’s on an old Landcuiser PC years ago. They were total crap off road. Mate at work had Pirelli Scorpions on his Landcruiser Wagon. They worked a lot better, but were quite soft, wore out quickly and had issues with punctures.

  44. B.C.

    Psephos Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 12:46 am @ 1792

    I didn’t say I believed it. I reported that it is being said. I report, you decide.

    It sounds like crap, or a malicous rumour designed to denigrate asylum seekers and their supports.

    We know that Mr Berati died from head injuries – the PNG Police have stated that in their report.
    We know that a large number of other people sustained injuries, including head injuries – this has been stated by the Australian Government as well as asylum seeker supporters.

    We have had a large number of reports, from multiple sources, that asylum seekers were attacked by PNG nations. Whether those nationals were PNG Police, island locals or locally employed G4S guards is unclear. However, the PNG Police report has stated that it was locally employed G4S guards so let’s accept that.

    So we know that PNG nationals, probably G4S guards, attacked asylum seekers within the camp and many of those asylum seekers sustained head injuries, some of them serious.

    On the other hand we now see a rumour that Mr Berati was murdered by other Iranians while these attacks were going on because he was an Iranian spy. We have not been presented with a shred of evidence to support this allegation.

    Given the above I think it would be reasonable to conclude that Mr Berati was killed by a PNG local during their attack on asylum seekers in the compound.

    What troubles me is why do some people think to create and spread such rumours. I see a similar sort of thing with those emails and Facebook posts that turn up regularly stating that asylum seekers are better looked after than age pensioners. What motivates someone to create such malicious lies.

    It reminds me of that incident many years ago when a boy died while his parents were unable to call for help because their phone was not working, and was overdue for repair by Telstra. Some people started making claims that the phone had been cut off for non payment. It was complete crap. But some individuals went to the effort of inventing and spreading the story.

  45. Bushfire Bill

    MEMO

    From: Kristina Kennealy
    To: Cardinal George Pell.
    Subject: Your new job

    ——————————–
    G.,

    DON’T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU IN THE ARSE ON THE WAY OUT.

    Rgds.,

    K.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-pell–the-view-from-the-pew-20140226-33h07.html

  46. Otiose

    UPDATE: 06:19:00 27/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol http://bit.ly/1hTGcKz

  47. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    MUST READ! Tara Moss exposes what went on inside Manus.
    http://taramoss.com/manus-island-insiders-report/
    Mark Kenny – Fiona Nash is in a mess.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fiona-nash-has-been-poor-the-pm-must-be-worried-20140226-33il1.html
    Oh dear! Now some evidence of Furnival’s direct role in the deals with Cadburys.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-and-axed-man-at-cadbury-photo-op-20140226-33inb.html
    And yet another dock-up by Nash.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nash-admits-resource-library-wasnt-duplicated-20140227-33iu2.html
    A good Peter Fitzsimons contribution on the toll often taken on high profile sports stars.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/swimming/grant-hackett-the-latest-swimmer-to-fall-victim-to-the-sports-relentless-demands-20140226-33i6s.html
    If this is not a disgrace then nothing is!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/financial-planners-free-to-flout-advice-rules-due-for-repeal-20140226-33ige.html
    Some intra-government introspection on the proposed legislation for drunken assaults.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-mp-peter-phelps-says-harsher-drink-laws-no-deterrent-for-steroidmunching-types-20140226-33ia1.html
    If you don’t want to get angry don’t read these.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/royal-commission-tears-as-woman-tells-of-abuse-in-parramatta-girls–dungeon-20140226-33h5n.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/royal-commission-abuse-nsw-government-girls-homes
    Virgin accuses the government of “picking winners”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/26/virgin-qantas-debt-guarantee-worth-100m

  48. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    I wonder if there has been any research on what motivates this use of steroids.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/young-men-dying-from-heart-disease-linked-to-steroid-use-20140226-33ije.html
    Michael Gordon’s editorial reckons that yesterday may have been a turning point for Shorten.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-stumbles-on-high-moral-ground-20140226-33ihq.html
    And The Guardian writes it up well, too.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/shorten-accuses-faux-patriotism-campbell-cover-up-
    Kristina Keneally says good riddance to George Pell.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-pell–the-view-from-the-pew-20140226-33h07.html
    Alan Moir on how Qantas may cut costs further.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/02/27/5203512/ac-moir4-defcon-20140227070102230603-620×0.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox welcomes Pell to the Vatican.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Rowe has the toy soldier as a political football.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    A very clever one from Pat Campbell on Qantas “baggage” handling.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    And Ron Tandberg has his say on the potential Qantas ownership change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html