Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. There is specific legal language in international maritime law in relation to lifeboats which makes it expedient for the Australian Government to give immunity to its servants from prosecution in relation to popping humans into slow, underpowered, lifeboats with ‘crews’ who may not know what they are doing.

    IMHO the real reason Australian warships found themselves in Indonesian waters was that they were trying to minimize the chances of a potential mass Australian-purchased lifeboat death by casting them off as close to the Indonesian shores as possible.

    Taking people off passenger vessals and popping them into lifeboats and setting them loose at sea is almost certainly illegal.

    Should they die I imagine the minimum charge would be manslaughter.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  2. psephos

    Not at all. A boycott is in no sense Nazi or even racist if it relates to the actions of a sovereign government for a specific reason. For example we boycott Iran for many items and I do not think you can call it Nazi. Similarly a boycott of China for Tibet actions or (as is likely) Russia when it goes into Ukraine heavily, or the USA in the Vietnam war days are Nazi actions.

    Personally I think term Nazi should be reserved strictly for totalitarian regimes that commit organised genocide or racial/religious suppression of people under their rule.

    I would say that any regime that knowingly caused injury or damage certain to lead to injury to a specific racial or religious group is beginning to show some Nazi like behaviour, although to be truly Nazi it needs to be highly organised and widespread

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  3. Not only is he a Tory apologist, Pell has presided over a massive cover up of child sexual abuse. I find your reference for him pointless and highly disingenuous.

    Can you cite some “Tory apologetics” he has engaged in?
    The second point is correct, but says nothing about his political views.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  4. Douglas and Milko

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    Badcat@503:

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/20/hey-boat-people-go-and-eat-a-bag-of-hitler/

    ——————————————————

    Douglas and Milko THANK YOU – THAT was my point ….

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:17 pm

  5. EFA ‏@efa_oz 1m

    .@SenatorLudlam asks A-G dept about #DataRetention. Refused to confirm if work being done, let alone details #auspol http://ow.ly/tVgHX

    I guess that’s a yes, Psephos can stop defending lib gov.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:17 pm

  6. Diog

    The whole privilege (immunity is a better word) is designed to allow a Member to lie. It has happened on many occasions.A High Court judge has been accused of gay sex in ComCars without it being found to be contempt.

    Put aside the fact that it is Thomson.

    The Parliament votes for a member to defend his actions as reported in the media, the Member then makes a speech. Does the member incriminate himself because he is forced to tell the truth by Parliament?

    If so, then lets get every member to stand up and say they are clean as the driven snow. (and if, over time, they are not we fine them?)

    May have worked in Charles First days, but I think Cromwell knocked that on the head.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:17 pm

  7. v

    Boerwar

    So you have not been on a walkabout.

    I took a break from the banality and cynicism of Abbottobad.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:17 pm

  8. Can you cite some “Tory apologetics” he has engaged in?

    His views on climate change for a start.

    His silence over the Iraq War and Children Overboard.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:18 pm

  9. Lynchpin

    According to Fafher Bob here in Melbourne, he said wtte today Pell should not take up the position offered in Rome, but stay in Australia to deal with the child abuse being exposed in The RC

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:18 pm

  10. A boycott is in no sense Nazi or even racist if it relates to the actions of a sovereign government for a specific reason. For example we boycott Iran for many items and I do not think you can call it Nazi.

    That might possibly be because Iranians are not Jews.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:19 pm

  11. Pell opposed the Iraq War, you moron.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:21 pm

  12. absolutetwaddle
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    “That makes him the second most powerful Roman Catholic in the WHOLE TEMPORAL WORLD – excluding, of course, matters of faith and morals.”

    That’s a victory of a kind.

    Only the Pope is infallible in matters of faith and morals. There is no second place.

    Pell’s only hope there is to become Pope. This, IMHO, is not a forlorn hope at all with the current BOP cardinal-wise. The new Pope may bugger up Pell’s chances, as it were, by appointing Freirians, thus shifting the College of Cardinal BOP towards the left.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:21 pm

  13. Boerwar

    Good move. I think i should do fhe same at some stage. If for nothing else but my own sanity. :D

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:21 pm

  14. “@Sandra_Sully: More bad news – T.Abbott confirms cuts 2 health & education.
    @PaulBongiorno explains @ 5 #TenNews”

    Good lead for Labor

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:21 pm

  15. Greg Sheridan today said on radio that Pell who has been a good friend for over thirty years, is the most conservative Catholic around, and is somewhat surprised that The Pope has bestowed this position to him.

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:23 pm

  16. OK that last remark was uncalled-for. Obviously I’ve reached my idiot threshhold for the day. Bye for now.

    by Psephos on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:23 pm

  17. The federal Labor caucus will allow its deputy leader to introduce a private bill to parliament that aims to legalise same-sex marriage.

    But the bill’s introduction will be subject to Liberal MPs being allowed a conscience vote.

    “Marriage equality’s time has well and truly come,” Tanya Plibersek said after a meeting of the caucus in Canberra on Tuesday.

    She called on the prime minister to allow his MPs and senators a free vote on the bill.

    “Liberal MPs pride themselves on being able to cross the floor on issues,” she said. “Tony Abbott needs to confirm that includes marriage equality.”

    Oh and Adam Bandt tells her not to.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:23 pm

  18. Psephos

    Iran does genocide against gays just like the Nazis it wasn’t just the jews so DTT is right to use that as an example.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:23 pm

  19. BW

    I think I agree with you. Our navy (or at least 4 of the 6 times) went into Indonesian waters deliberately because they knew the risk of failing to accompany the lifeboat.

    It is only a matter of time before one of the life boat founders or burns, killing 90 plus people. Australia will become a pariah state and the naval captains guilty of crimes and certainly in breach of law of the sea.

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:23 pm

  20. Boerwar Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 5:09 pm @ 536

    Pell has just been appointed wtte CEO of the Holy See. That makes him the second most powerful Roman Catholic in the WHOLE TEMPORAL WORLD – excluding, of course, matters of faith and morals.

    Wouldn’t CFO be a more accurate description?

    by B.C. on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:24 pm

  21. I’ve noticed there’s a fair bit of talk about Hitler and Nazis. A friend recently sent me postings on Fascism by “The Archdruid”, whoever that might be:
    Fascism and the Future, Part One: Up From Newspeak
    Fascism and the Future, Part Two: The Totalitarian Center
    The article Fascism, Feudalism, and the Future is referenced in part 1.

    I don’t know enough to say how accurate this guys writings are.

    by B.C. on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:24 pm

  22. Boerwar Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 5:16 pm @ 550

    IMHO the real reason Australian warships found themselves in Indonesian waters was that they were trying to minimize the chances of a potential mass Australian-purchased lifeboat death by casting them off as close to the Indonesian shores as possible.

    IIRC there was a report in the Indonesian media that their Navy believed Australian boats were coming within 8nm of the Indonesian coastline. This may have been based on testimony from returned asylum seekers who I think also claimed lights were turned off at the time.

    by B.C. on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:25 pm

  23. Sadly, a free vote in SSM is never going to happen in this parliament. I imagine the bill will be withdrawn when this is yet again made crystal clear.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:26 pm

  24. Abbott has lost two of his most trusted advisor’s, the sad and untimely death of Christopher Pearson and now the move of Cardinal Pell to the Vatican.

    These were the people he sought guidance from when he came across a politico-moral problem. Is this why he seems like a boat with no rudder at the moment?

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:28 pm

  25. B.C.
    Technically. Newspaper reports refer to ‘administration’ more generally.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:28 pm

  26. Dear msm, according to some of you, we should be gearing up for a DD by now.

    Remember the constant (silly) predictions that Abbott would have the first half of the trigger he needed for a DD by Christmas?

    In some alternate Abbottverse, the rejected bills are being readied for return to the House of Reps in March, so that Abbott has his DD trigger by the end of the month.

    Next time someone in the msm predicts something’s going to happen by Christmas, remember how rarely right they are.

    by zoomster on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:29 pm

  27. B.C.

    In any case, with the Vatican as with everything else, ‘Follow the money’.

    by Boerwar on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:29 pm

  28. twaddle

    For that reason Bandt is right its a stunt.

    Where Bandt is wrong however is not realising its a stunt well worth doing and will repair some of the damage Labor got in the gay community before.

    Plus its Labor on the front foot making Abbott uncomfortable.

    I am very surprised at Bandt misreading it.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:29 pm

  29. Pell opposed the Iraq War, you moron.

    I would like an apology. That was unnecessary.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:30 pm

  30. http://m.theage.com.au/technology/sci-tech/its-lights-out-for-north-korea-nasa-shares-remarkable-photograph-from-space-20140225-33fai.html

    Remember, it wasn’t so long ago domestic North Korean propaganda earnestly stated that South Koreans were jealous of the North’s material wealth. Obviously they’ve given that angle up.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:30 pm

  31. Psephos, give me a link to any article in which Pell criticised Howard for taking us into the Iraq war. If you can, I will accept what you say re Pell’s views on Iraq.

    I still think he is a Tory sympathiser.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:32 pm

  32. I am very surprised at Bandt misreading it.

    I’m not.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:32 pm

  33. Pell has just been appointed wtte CEO of the Holy See. That makes him the second most powerful Roman Catholic in the WHOLE TEMPORAL WORLD – excluding, of course, matters of faith and morals.

    Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.

    One of the options to muzzle somebody you can’t just dispatch, is to give them power very close to, but dependent on and subordinate to, your power.

    Pell was becoming a problem for the church while he remained so visible in Australia. He couldn’t be sacked, or demoted. So this is the best option they have to keep him under control.

    At 72 Pell is getting a little long in the tooth to be a serious contender for pope, given the current one lasts a few years.

    by Just Me on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:32 pm

  34. Pell takes a tory position on Global Warming…despite the Vatican’s view that it a scientific fact
    Likewise he was in attendance at last years IPA function here in Melb where all the Tory warlords/Sheriden/Bolt./M urdoch ..the whole crew… were there to celevrate the 50th anniversary of the right-wing IPA why would he attend if he didn’t share their views on a host of matters!

    Psephos doesn’t share this view but he speaks like an apologist for Pell all the same

    by deblonay on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:33 pm

  35. Thanks Deblonay. That confirms my views on Pell.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:35 pm

  36. Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Rule No 1 for Sheridan is that Abbott Can Do No Wrong.

    Thats the way I read the article. Just wasted a lot of words to say so. All pretty much what you would expect.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:35 pm

  37. I know the Catholic Church really is in a state of confusion; but I would think there is a snowflakes chance in hell of Pell becoming Pope.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:38 pm

  38. Psephos, give me a link to any article in which Pell criticised Howard for taking us into the Iraq war. If you can, I will accept what you say re Pell’s views on Iraq.

    I’m no Pell defender, but I did find this with a quick Google search

    Pell opposed the War in Iraq, once described John Howard’s treatment of refugees as a blight on his administration, and said WorkChoices was a “step too far on IR”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/top50/2012/george-pell/story-fnbtts0j-1226257379291

    And this

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/christians-at-mercy-of-fanatics/story-e6frezz0-1111116236602

    by madcyril on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:39 pm

  39. @DatelineSBS: #Manus is an experiment in creating terror according to #whistleblower on tonight #DatelineSBS 9.30 http://t.co/NXsqozgQoe #asylumseekers

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:42 pm

  40. B.C.
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    The Qantas Sake Act is not the reason Qantas are unable to raise capital. They have had no trouble in raising capital in the past when needed. The real reason Qantas are unable to raise capital is they are no longer seen as a good investment. Assuming that foreign investors are more gullible than local investors is not a sound management strategy going forward.

    Spot on -

    dave@514 on BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor | The Poll Bludger


    In 2001 shareholders had invested about $3.3 billion in Qantas and the banks had also lent $3.3 billion. In that year the accounting profit was $514 million (while cash flow after investment in equipment was a loss). Fast forward to 2010 and the company earned just $144 million, or just one-third of the profit 10 years earlier.

    Unfortunately, the story is worse because as of December 31, 2010, shareholders had tipped in $6 billion and the banks have stumped up $5.6 billion. At that stage the share price was $2.58 after having being about $6 in late 2007

    If you are wondering why the share price today, $1.235 is far far less than it was a decade ago, you now have your answer.

    Its a total disaster.

    The total market value of Qantas today is far less than all the money that has been tipped into it over the past 10 years and it has ceased paying dividends.

    This cycle cannot continue indefinitely. Yet a tory, free market “so called government” appears to be saying that it is going to force taxpayers to guarantee the debt of this bunch of incompetent losers, even though said debt is internationally rated as **JUNK**

    How many warnings does a reasonably informed ‘investor’ need to avoid this mob – fcuk run away from them!

    FFS – joyce and the board have to walk the plank.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:42 pm

  41. Psephos

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    OK that last remark was uncalled-for. Obviously I’ve reached my idiot threshhold for the day. Bye for now.

    —————————————————–

    Translation – I am an island, surrounded by an ocean of ignorant and moronic dickheads

    by badcat on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:44 pm

  42. This comment by Psephos

    “That might possibly be because Iranians are not Jews.”

    opens a really interesting discussion point.

    Apparently you can’t criticise or boycott a nation that is non-secular for fear of offending that religion?

    It’s a really unusual attitude, and actually looks like he is using a syllogism…

    This is poor logic and reflects on Psephos’ inability to approach any discussion of Israel with any real objectivity.

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:45 pm

  43. Thanks madcyril. I couldn’t open those links. Did Pell actually criticise the Howard Government over Iraq?

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:48 pm

  44. The press corps is getting angry!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/manus-island-how-information-is-kept-under-control-20140225-33eob.html

    by BK on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:48 pm

  45. From David Marr!

    Pell’s superiors admired the young man’s forthright ways and eagerness for responsibility. In his third year he was put in charge of the discipline of new arrivals. There were those among the underlings who found him harsh, formal and unforgiving. Pell’s reputation as a bully dates back to Werribee.

    by Dee on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:49 pm

  46. Translation – I am an island, surrounded by an ocean of ignorant and moronic dickheads

    That’s one interpretation.

    Conceited and arrogant also comes to mind.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:49 pm

  47. Psephos

    OK, fair enough. When an Australian politician starts organising boycotts of Jewish businesses, then you’ll be entitled to compare them to Nazis.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-senator-lee-rhiannon-stands-by-israel-boycott/story-fn59niix-1226124026224

    Like most things one reads in the Murdoch Press, and in particular about the Greens, which they pledged to destroy, this article is essentially an editorial. It was alleged that anti-semitic insults had been hurled, but none were cited still less attributed. Nor were these claims put so they could be answered.

    Absolutetwaddle

    Your implied comparison between the Socialist Alternative folks and the thugs at Kristallnacht is even less sound than comparisons between Pell and the Nazis. Brenner was targeted because of its express support of the occupation and illegal settlements. The BDS movement seeks to marginalise supporters of the occupation. Businesses operated by Jews that have co connection with the occupation are not targeted.

    That said, there was no violence or destruction of property at Brenners by members of Socialist Alternative. Nobody was charged with an offence, which they certainly would have been, had one occurred.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:51 pm

  48. @badcat553 – It’s a pleasure. I know exactly where you are coming from.

    I shared that FDOTM cartoon with a few of my friends when it was published, after conversations that mirrored the sentiments expressed.

    None of us are passing judgement on what is happening yet, be, we are just saying….

    by Douglas and Milko on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:51 pm

  49. Lynchpin

    The best I have found is this, written by Pell about Howard:

    Like Margaret Thatcher, Howard went one step too far on industrial relations.

    The war in Iraq remains deeply unpopular and has gone disastrously, although there are now signs of a small improvement.

    The biggest blot on his record will remain the treatment of refugees. While we should not forget that these hard-line policies were introduced by an earlier Labor government and supported strongly by the Australian public opinion, they were too tough and often implemented ruthlessly and meanly.

    So not criticizing Howard in particular, just the overall war.

    I got that from a link on his Wikipedia page

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Pell#John_Howard

    by madcyril on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:54 pm

  50. Not sure why Psephos keeps telling us he’s the smartest person around, just increases his ego.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:55 pm

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