Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. At the risk of offending William can the posters on here please refrain from name calling each other ‘moron’, ‘idiot’. ‘douchebag’ or any other similar descriptor. Is it actually possible to have a well reasoned and robust debate without name calling… if I wanted name calling I would tune to NewsRadio’s broadcast of HOR QT.

    There is enough hate, disquiet and general malaise in the community as it is without a blog such as this descending to the depths of banality.

    Clearly there are issues our there that push buttons however can we rise collectively from the sludge?

    So ends my rant for today

    by Steven Grant Haby on Feb 25, 2014 at 5:57 pm

  2. Thanks madcyril. He still sounds like a Tory apologist to me.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:00 pm

  3. I think Psephos should stop throwing around claims of anti-Semitism all the time. He seems to confuse genuine criticism with anti-Semitism.

    It’s poor form and an attempt at censorship on his part.

    If he finds criticism of Israel so offensive he should stay out of the discussion.

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:04 pm

  4. Are we over the nazis for today then?

    If so – TG

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:04 pm

  5. zoidlord

    Psephos is an Aussie Neocon. A surprising number of the seppo Neocons were former Trots and the like. He certainly shares a number of their particular obsessions.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoconservatism#Trotskyism_allegation

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:05 pm

  6. If so – TG

    Which one though? :)

    by cud chewer on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:06 pm

  7. What’s TG?

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:07 pm

  8. cud

    Which one though? :)

    Any one will do!

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:07 pm

  9. CTar1

    And the Pells as well. it was barfy enough hearing Fran on RN give so much time to the minutiae of his appointment let alone to see it here.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:07 pm

  10. guy – Like an MG but quicker :lol:

    (Thank God)

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:09 pm

  11. Ctar

    Ahhh. Be safe but have fun :)

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:10 pm

  12. Astrobleme

    Quotes Psephos

    “That might possibly be because Iranians are not Jews.”

    Quite a frivolous response. Yes, Iranians aren’t Jews, so by definition this can’t be anti-semitic (though technically, since frivolity is the go here, if the Iranians in a bizarro alternative universe were backers of Israel and people began picketing pro-iranian businesses or their embassy in consequence it still could in Psephos’s mind qualify as “anti-semitic”)

    Back on the actual planet we inhabit, the substantive point is whether it’s racist to protest a regime and its supporters in business on political (as distinct from purely ethno-cultural) grounds. I’d say it isn’t. The protest might or might not be warranted, but it wouldn’t necessarily be racist.

    I’ve never attended a protest against Wahhabist misogyny, but if I did, I’d reject claims that I was venting ethno-cultural animus towards Arabs or muslims. If I protested some Ugandan academic who supported the regime’s murderous legal attacks on gays there, it wouldn’t be out of hatred for Africans or Ugandans.

    Really this “anti-zionism = anti-semitism” meme is just an extended and specious attempt at bullying people into silence over Israel’s continuing brutal occupation of the post 1967 territories.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:12 pm

  13. Israel has a right to defend herself.

    Israel also has a right to sell her products to the world’s consumers unimpeded by poltical protests.

    by Darren Laver on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:13 pm

  14. Darren Lever

    Wrong.

    Israel has the sane rights to defend herself and sell products as anyone else. No more no less. Its called equality.

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:15 pm

  15. As this round of being nasty to Asylum seekers unravels so does Psephos.

    by frednk on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:15 pm

  16. poroti

    Now Pell can permanently occupy that big mansion in Rome he had built supposedly for visiting Australian ‘pilgrims’.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:16 pm

  17. As always, the truth confounds the blinkered ideologues.

    Afghanistan and Iraq Wars

    Pell has written that he supported the Afghanistan War but believed that the Iraq War was “not morally justified”.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Pell

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/christians-at-mercy-of-fanatics/story-e6frezz0-1111116236602

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:16 pm

  18. “@BernardKeane: Conroy asking Campbell to explain why the secrecy of military operations applies to stopping unarmed people in wooden boats.”

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:18 pm

  19. CTar1

    Tim Bucket Loads of Extinguishment Fisher can be his flatmate.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:19 pm

  20. Fran

    “Really this “anti-zionism = anti-semitism” meme is just an extended and specious attempt at bullying people into silence over Israel’s continuing brutal occupation of the post 1967 territories.”

    Indeed!

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:20 pm

  21. Guytaur

    Wrong!

    Israel has every right to attack as it chooses then interpret it as the right to defend itself, didn’t you know :shock:

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:22 pm

  22. Darren

    “Israel has a right to defend herself.

    Israel also has a right to sell her products to the world’s consumers unimpeded by poltical protests.”

    Since when has any country been exempt from political protest???

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:22 pm

  23. More unhinging.

    A Manus Island migration agent has turned whistleblower, saying the whole asylum seeker processing system there is ‘fake’.

    Dateline 9.30 tonight SBS.

    sbs.com.au/dateline/story/about/id/601814/n/Manus-Insider

    by mikehilliard on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:22 pm

  24. Ooops Apple guys and gals lookout.

    Less than a day's work was all it took for one New Zealand security consultant to develop a proof of concept for the actively open OS X exploit revealed at the weekend, and known as "goto fail".

    Aldo Cortesi, CEO and founder of security consultancy firm Nullcube, said in a blogpost today that he had modified his existing mitmproxy code to take advantage of the open hole in OS X Mavericks.

    "I've confirmed full transparent interception of HTTPS traffic on both IOS (prior to 7.0.6) and OSX Mavericks," Cortesi wrote.

    "Nearly all encrypted traffic, including usernames, passwords, and even Apple app updates can be captured."

    Cortesi said that iCloud data, including KeyChain enrollment and updates, data from Calendar application, and traffic from apps that use certificate pining, such as Twitter.

    "It's difficult to over-state the seriousness of this issue," he wrote. "With a tool like mitmproxy in the right position, an attacker can intercept, view and modify nearly all sensitive traffic."

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:23 pm

  25. poroti

    Tim Bucket Loads

    I’ve never heard of him and wouldn’t expected to have.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:24 pm

  26. I heard that Conroy grilled 6 Star McHale in the Senate hearing?

    Good on him, he’s no wimp either!

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:24 pm

  27. Who is the hard, dark-haired woman on The Drum?

    by BK on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:25 pm

  28. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane

    last night's TV ratings provide a good demonstration of why News Corp is so determined to attack the ABC

    https://twitter.com/BernardKeane/status/438211245192142848/photo/1

    by mikehilliard on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:25 pm

  29. @ruawake/623

    I am not surprised.

    I wouldn’t also bet the NSA had a say in the “exploits” since they can also break encryption.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:26 pm

  30. Here is Conroy’s accusation to the toy soldier.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZfmtFCIW38

    by BK on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:26 pm

  31. Conoy made fhe 6pm channel 9 news here in Melbourne

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:26 pm

  32. I call her Snapper Head.

    by mikehilliard on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:26 pm

  33. BK

    Victorian News rep Patricia something

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:27 pm

  34. EFA ‏@efa_oz 18m

    Apologies, EFA’s @jon_lawrence will not be on #triplejhack tonight. We’ll let you know when the story runs

    Wonders if Abbott/Turnbull gave EFA the flick on tripple J.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:27 pm

  35. "It's difficult to over-state the seriousness of this issue," he wrote.

    If only I knew what it all means.

    by mikehilliard on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:28 pm

  36. CTar1

    Sadly he kept popping up on the ABC today. Apparently he was pushing for Pell in Rome last year. In the off chance you missed where “buckets loads” came from.

    Explaining the government's position on ABC TV, Deputy Prime Minister Tim Fischer produced a memorable oxymoron. The legislation would, he said, provide "bucket loads of extinguishment and bucket loads of native title". At least one half of Fischer's wish was realised. The Native Title Act was amended in 1998. In the words of Aboriginal leader Noel Pearson, the changes "ripped the heart out" of the original legislation, giving away 80 per cent of Aboriginal people's position

    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/16/1082055637245.html?from=storyrhs

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:29 pm

  37. Speaking of the use of words like “wimp” and “fair dinkum”, where do you think they got them from?

    I told you they read us (me anyway) :D

    If you don’t believe me, what about “go the whole hog”?

    In the possibility of a leadership change in the Greens, I suggested they should go the “whole hog” and appoint Sarah H-Y.

    Today in Question Time that plagiarising Abbott said to Shorten that he should go the “whole hog” and scrap the carbon tax.

    Stick to your own material Monkey :mrgreen:

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:31 pm

  38. Astro @ 619

    Spot on!

    They can’t fool everybody.

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:33 pm

  39. Which TV channels does NewsCorp own?

    by cud chewer on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:33 pm

  40. What I was hoping to see was an insider saying that the government is secretly immigrating Manus Island refugees back to oz.

    Now *that* would be a story :)

    by cud chewer on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:34 pm

  41. Cud

    Ten and Foxtel

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:34 pm

  42. Centre

    That was Fran’s line, but I certainly agree with her!

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:35 pm

  43. poroti

    Sadly he kept popping up on the ABC today.

    I had 24 on mute and saw George, listening to Senate Estimates, lots of scrolling on here and got a load of Solitaire done as well.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:35 pm

  44. Astro @ 619

    Fran said it :shock:

    You see, if it doesn’t involve this $ we can agree :cool:

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:36 pm

  45. The question is, is Ten’s decline due to NewsCorp ownership, or purely to do with crap (cheap ass) programming?

    by cud chewer on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:36 pm

  46. BK
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 5:48 pm | PERMALINK
    The press corps is getting angry!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/manus-island-how-information-is-kept-under-control-20140225-33eob.html

    I put the link on twitter and asked what are we coming to and if agree retweet, so many retweets and tweets back, think people are getting angry too

    by mari on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:36 pm

  47. Fran: If the Arabs hadn’t resorted to terrorism and the Three Noes, Israel would have withdrawn from the West Bank (although not Jerusalem) and Gaza within a few years after 1967. The so-called right of return can never be accepted as it would wipe out Israel as a jewish state. Israel has a right to exist as a jewish state and the Alluh Akbar extremists have to understand that.

    by Courtney Compagnino on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:36 pm

  48. Chinese Stockmarket coped a hiding again today down 2.1%, third day in a row its been down by more than 1%.

    Now down 5.3% over the last 4 sessions.

    Financials leading the decline but also spreading to other sectors.

    Main financial stocks down 10.6% since the beginning of the year.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:40 pm

  49. I stand to be corrected, but I don’t think News Corp own Channel Ten. I thought Lachlan Murdoch had a share holding along with James Packer and Gina Rinehart. But News Corp itself doesn’t own any shares. Of course, with Lachlan in charge, some may argue it may as well be owned by News Corp but I couldn’t possibly comment.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten_Network_Holdings

    by madcyril on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:41 pm

  50. cud chewer

    Channel 10 is controlled by Lachlan Murdoch.

    How’s he gone?

    Look at 10s share price since he got involved in the joint.

    Very lucky to be born with the platinum spoon him ;)

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:42 pm

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