Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. cud chewer @644

    It might be the both, as in cause & effect. I was subjected to Foxtel recently, all be it their kids programs & they were definitely in the crap department.

    by mikehilliard on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:43 pm

  2. The 3 balls General is occupying a political appointment, after being seconded to Howard for nearly a decade, if he takes offence at the truth he must be thin skinned.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:45 pm

  3. Centre

    “You see, if it doesn’t involve this $ we can agree ”

    Ha! I am still sure you’re wrong, somehow… :)

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:45 pm

  4. Autopsy still not performed eight days after asylum seeker Reza Barati killed

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/autopsy-still-not-performed-eight-days-after-asylum-seeker-reza-barati-killed-20140225-33fdm.html

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:46 pm

  5. madcyril

    You are correct I was forgetting the split when Lachlan was banished

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:46 pm

  6. Courtney C

    “Fran: If the Arabs hadn’t resorted to terrorism and the Three Noes, Israel would have withdrawn from the West Bank (although not Jerusalem) and Gaza within a few years after 1967. The so-called right of return can never be accepted as it would wipe out Israel as a jewish state. Israel has a right to exist as a jewish state and the Alluh Akbar extremists have to understand that.”

    Wow, you have such a deep understanding…

    Do you think history started in 1948?

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:46 pm

  7. Courtney Compagnino

    [Fran: If the Arabs hadn’t resorted to terrorism

    Just sooo not like Irgun and crew eh ? King David Hotel and Deir Yassin just the starter for 10.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:47 pm

  8. Thanks BK @ 629

    I just saw it.

    Conroy called it as it is and we all know it.

    6 Star McHale lol

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:48 pm

  9. @Dave/647

    I’m afraid to login into Comsec now.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:50 pm

  10. Autopsy still not performed eight days after asylum seeker Reza Barati killed

    Disgusting, we should have buried him by now according to his families wishes.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:50 pm

  11. Courtney @646
    What exactly is “a Jewish state”? If it is a State where members of the Jewish race enjoy special privileges, why should anyone think a racist state has a right to exist? Australians agreed 50 years ago to relinquish the White Australia policy which made Australia a racist state, because it was wrong but also because it was holding the country back. Racist states are an anachronism, and should not be encouraged.

    I do agree that the Palestinians would have been better served by a pacifist policy.

    by MagicPudding on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:52 pm

  12. ru

    I watched some of the questioning today in Senate estimates, and the 3 balls general would be better resigning than continuing with this charade

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:52 pm

  13. Transfield and their board should be charged for any injuries after this decision. They will continue to hire a known band of thugs who have a known track record of thuggery. Kidnap , murder and torture are in their repertoire . A teenager on Manus was not so long ago beaten to death on a main street by them.

    Transfield Services will take full control of the centre.

    A spokesman told Fairfax Media that the company would continue to employ local security forces, despite their implication in the violence.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/autopsy-still-not-performed-eight-days-after-asylum-seeker-reza-barati-killed-20140225-33fdm.html#ixzz2uJmh8Qq9

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:55 pm

  14. MP,

    Judaism is a religion not a race.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:55 pm

  15. “zionism is racism”.
    God why are people here stuck in the 1970s?
    Even the UN General Assembly repealed that resolution!
    The ’70s are over and the left lost!

    by Courtney Compagnino on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:56 pm

  16. I watched some of the questioning today in Senate estimates, and the 3 balls general would be better resigning than continuing with this charade

    He should never have taken the job. The funny thing is Conroy states the bleedin’ obvious, The Chair has a fit, Senator Cash comes to his rescue, Ned has an orgasm, then 3 balls decides he is offended.

    Well General I am offended by you covering up the death of at least one person and the injuries to scores more. Funny how he went to Manus to investigate on Sunday but is safe home in Canberra on Tuesday.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:59 pm

  17. McHale (or whatever the hell his name is) is involved in a political cover up if he will not tell us the truth because it might upset a neighbour!

    What has this country become under this secretive and dangerous government?

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:59 pm

  18. CC,

    You are talking about people who can’t tie their shoelaces. What makes you think they even remember there was a 70s, 80s or last Thursday?

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 25, 2014 at 6:59 pm

  19. Feck privileging any religion or any race in a nation state. End of.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:00 pm

  20. No worries guytaur.

    by madcyril on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:00 pm

  21. Centre
    He’s more like Capatain Binghampton.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF7y2nA9txw

    by BK on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:01 pm

  22. It seems the base reason for the riots was that people were being lied to, staff from G4S, Immigration and Refugee setelement were given scripts to

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:01 pm

  23. OOpp cont.

    Read, people realised they were being bullshitted to.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:02 pm

  24. GG

    I think that given the minimal rate of conversion to Judaism and the fact that to be Jewish your mother must be Jewish, it is reasonable to assume that Judaism is a race as much as if not more that a religion. By contrast Christianity and Islam are religions which cross many racial and groups and anyone can join and indeed are encouraged to join.

    Now if Israel offered full citizenship to any Palestinian willing to convert to Judaism, you might start to be able to argue it is a religion, not a race, however y

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:05 pm

  25. dtt,

    Horseshit.

    You clearly have no understanding of the diverse ethnicity of the Jewish people.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:07 pm

  26. Meanwhile in Quinceland the Bananafuhrer may be in for interesting times.

    Reshuffle rumours swirl around George Street

    It seems everyone is talking about a cabinet reshuffle – except Campbell Newman.

    Rumours of a reshuffle began almost as soon as voting booths closed in Redcliffe on Saturday, and only grew louder as the swing against the Liberal National Party climbed above 17 per cent.

    But on Monday and not for the first time, Mr Newman shut down speculation he was planning to shake up his cabinet.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/reshuffle-rumours-swirl-around-george-street-20140225-33f92.html

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:08 pm

  27. Now Pell can permanently occupy that big mansion in Rome he had built supposedly for visiting Australian ‘pilgrims’.

    Time for an Abbott pilgrimage to Rome.

    by citizen on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:09 pm

  28. BK @ 670

    Nearly as big a circus as this government.

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:10 pm

  29. GG

    Nor do you. Conversion Judaism is extremely difficult and generally only happens when a man marries a Jewish woman. Even it is often the case that the man is of Jewish origin on his father’s side.

    A man who does convert is not permitted to take part in many of the key Jewish ceremonies. The most ardent Jewish man I ever met was one such.

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:11 pm

  30. CC

    No state has “a right to exist”. States are not living things, let alone human things. They have no fears or hopes, no definite death or form. They are purely corporate entities.

    Their existence is conditional on their adequate service of the legitimate interest of some identifiable community of people. Insofar as they do this and no more, we ought to recognise their sovereignty.

    Whatever one thought of the partition in 1948, by the 1960s it would have been hard to argue that a reversal of “the catastrophe” would not have imposed as much misery as it would have relieved. It would have been better by far to have advocated a united non-racial state on the lands in dispute and the west bank with full right of return. That option was however, not politically viable in the context. The often reactionary or at best nationalist Arab regimes around Israel had their own agenda and irredentism was a lovely unicorn.

    Post-1967 a two-state solution was probably the best option but again, both in Israel and amongst the Arab neighbours, there was very little support for it, and with a further conflict in 1973, that again was off the agenda. Moreover, by this time the Israel-Arab conflict had become hostage to the Cold War.

    The reality is that the Palestinians were very poorly served by all of this, and the Israeli citizenry only marginally better. Israel went on to invade Lebanon on several occasions and to further prejudice the prospects for an amicable settlement. And when the Oslo Accords later were finalised they failed to follow through.

    This has been a dreadful failure on the part of all of the protagonists. The Israelis have suffered the least but everyone, including them, stand worse.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:13 pm

  31. Reshuffle rumours swirl around George Street

    The rumour I heard involved Geoff Seeney as Premier, Tim Nicholls as Dept and Mark McArdle as A-G.

    Newman to announce he only left as Mayor to fix Labor’s mess which he has achieved. Bleijie will not be missed by anyone.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:13 pm

  32. dtt

    For the hard core

    According to halakha, a Jew by birth must be born to a Jewish mother. Halakha states that the acceptance of the principles and practices of Judaism does not make a person a Jew. But, those born Jewish do not lose that status because they cease to be observant Jews, even if they adopt the practices of another religion

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:15 pm

  33. The problem for Ch10 is that it is aimed at the younger demographic (under 40).

    These people have a lot more to do than watch telly at night.

    That said, the Ch10 news with Paul Bonjiorno is often a lot better than the other channels. Unfortunately Hugh Riminton these days is a newsreader on Ch10, forced to read out a lot of tripe written by the newsroom.

    by citizen on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:16 pm

  34. ruawake

    Newman to announce he only left as Mayor to fix Labor’s mess which he has achieved

    That sounds a very plausible “out” for Campbell.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:17 pm

  35. dtt,

    You seem determined to put your ignorance on display. Who am I to stop you?

    http://forward.com/articles/175912/jews-a-race-genetic-theory-comes-under-fierce-atta/?p=all

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:18 pm

  36. Rua

    Newmans denial of a reshuffle reminds me of a time in Richard courts reign in WA when the reshuffle was on. It was the lead story in the west Australian that morning and court was in the 7am ABC news denying it in quite strong terms. By 11 am the cabinet had been reshuffled. Did any reporter front Court and challenge his lies. Not on your nelly.
    A premier denying a cabinet reshuffle is in the same class as a footy club president declaring the coach has the full support of the board. When that happens start ticking off the days.

    by rossmcg on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:22 pm

  37. GG

    “You clearly have no understanding of the diverse ethnicity of the Jewish people.”

    Strange, and yet Psephos is proud that Jews show the smallest genetic diversity of any group…

    What is the real deal here?

    by Astrobleme on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:23 pm

  38. GG just for you.

    Took tow minutes to track down on Wiki. Now in case you do not get the science, this says Jewish people are a race even if from widely dispersed communities

    Despite the evident diversity displayed by the world's distinctive Jewish populations, both culturally and physically, genetic studies have demonstrated most of these to be genetically related to one another, having ultimately originated from a common ancient Israelite population that underwent geographic branching and subsequent independent evolutions.[9]

    A study published by the National Academy of Sciences stated that "The results support the hypothesis that the paternal gene pools of Jewish communities from Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East descended from a common Middle Eastern ancestral population, and suggest that most Jewish communities have remained relatively isolated from neighboring non-Jewish communities during and after the Diaspora."[9] Researchers expressed surprise at the remarkable genetic uniformity they found among modern Jews, no matter where the diaspora has become dispersed around the world.[9]

    Moreover, DNA tests have demonstrated substantially less inter-marriage in most of the various Jewish ethnic divisions over the last 3,000 years than in other populations.[10] The findings lend support to traditional Jewish accounts accrediting their founding to exiled Israelite populations, and counters theories that many or most of the world’s Jewish populations were founded by entirely gentile populations that adopted the Jewish faith, as in the notable case of the historic Khazars.[10][11] Although groups such as the Khazars could have been absorbed into modern Jewish populations — in the Khazars’ case, absorbed into the Ashkenazim — it is unlikely that they formed a large percentage of the ancestors of modern Ashkenazi Jews, and much less that they were the genesis of the Ashkenazim.[12]

    Even the archetype of Israelite-origin is also beginning to be reviewed for some Jewish populations amid newer studies. Previously, the Israelite origin identified in the world's Jewish populations was attributed only to the males who had migrated from the Middle East and then forged the current known communities with "the women from each local population whom they took as wives and converted to Judaism".[13] Research in Ashkenazi Jews has suggested that, in addition to the male founders, significant female founder ancestry might also derive from the Middle East, with about 40% of the current Ashkenazi population descended matrilineally from just four women, or “founder lineages”, that were “likely from a Hebrew/Levantine mtDNA pool” originating in the Near East in the 1st and 2nd centuries CE

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:24 pm

  39. CTar1,

    Are we over the nazis for today then?

    If so – TG

    Unfortunately, not yet.

    They haf veys of making us talk.

    by Acerbic Conehead on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:25 pm

  40. A premier denying a cabinet reshuffle is in the same class as a footy club president declaring the coach has the full support of the board. When that happens start ticking off the days.

    Or Abbott giving his full support to Morrison (without being asked). I can imagine the presser, Scooter tried hard and he did stop the boats, but it seems he is stopping the votes now, so we have the next bastard in line.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:28 pm

  41. Can we have a permanent Israel thread where people can post crap ad infinitum?

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:29 pm

  42. dtt,

    Under your analysis, all Arabs are clearly Jews.

    What would Mohammed say about that?

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:30 pm

  43. GG @ 663
    I just checked Wikipedia and confirmed my impression that the right of free immigration to Israel is extended on a racial, not a religious basis. I also found that 20% of Israeli Jews say they are not religious, but are still Jews. Judaism is a religion, but Jewishness is not.
    Courtney @ 664
    If you are addressing me, I did not mention “zionism”. If zionism is the belief that the State of Israel should privilege members of a particular race, then it is racist, whatever the UN currently says. I do not see why it should be a left/right issue; many right-wingers oppose racism and many left-wingers support Israel.
    History is never over, however much those presently on top might wish it to be.

    by MagicPudding on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:33 pm

  44. GG

    OK I scanned the article and it made clear the matter is not certain and a matter of scientific argument. The problem is that the ONLY claim the European Jews have to Israel/Palestine is that they are RACIALLY descended from the original inhabitants.

    Unless of course you are in whacko land and believe it was “promised by God” or the great banana or cod fish

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:34 pm

  45. AC

    Unfortunately, not yet.

    I’ve noticed a closely associated subject is on now …

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:35 pm

  46. How come the Orange Lifeboats cost $40,000 US but we paid $200,000 each. Was it labour to get rid of ID numbers?

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:37 pm

  47. ru

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 6:59 pm | PERMALINK
    I watched some of the questioning today in Senate estimates, and the 3 balls general would be better resigning than continuing with this charade

    He should never have taken the job. The funny thing is Conroy states the bleedin’ obvious, The Chair has a fit, Senator Cash comes to his rescue, Ned has an orgasm, then 3 balls decides he is offended.

    Well General I am offended by you covering up the death of at least one person and the injuries to scores more. Funny how he went to Manus to investigate on Sunday but is safe home in Canberra on Tuesday.

    It is indeed an embarrassment

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:42 pm

  48. AC

    Or even

    Talk Talk - Talk Talk

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqjttpl3peI

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:44 pm

  49. cud chewerChannel 10 is controlled by Lachlan Murdoch.How’s he gone?Look at 10s share price since he got involved in the joint.Very lucky to be born with the platinum spoon him 

    My understanding from TV insiders is that Ten is being “tanked” so that it can be sold off cheaply to a certain mogul, should media ownership laws change…

    by Darren Laver on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:46 pm

  50. Zionism can mean a range of things. In its minimalist form, it might simply refer to the desire of Jews to live in a state committed to the defence of their human rights — which given their perpetual exposure to harassment and often racial murder was and is an entirely reasonable aspiration. Although the notion of Palestine becoming a Jewish state pre-dated the rise of the Nazis there can be no doubt that this sealed the question for many of the survivors of the Holocaust.

    As my text above suggests, in this minimalist sense I am not, strictly speaking, an anti-zionist. I absolutely believe that the Jews are entitled to live in dignity wherever they are and if for some this entails a state substantially answerable to them, I see no basis on which to oppose this. One might well advance the claim for any distinct and substantial community. For one traditionally on the wrong end of murderous abuse, the claim is especially persuasive.

    OTOH that does not give their state or its ultra-nationalists carte blanche to abuse others or IMO, to set up some sort of racial-exclusivist regime. Rejecting that kind of Zionism is not anti-semitic.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:47 pm

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