Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. ru

    How come the Orange Lifeboats cost $40,000 US but we paid $200,000 each. Was it labour to get rid of ID numbers?

    Why would it matter?

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:47 pm

  2. GG

    Um!!!!!!

    Yes ALL Arabs were once Jewish or some similar shared religion. That is why both Jewish and Arabic people are Semitic peoples. Both worship “God” who is like the old testament Jehovah. Both accept the word of the Old Testament. Yes Genesis, Isiah, Abraham Isaac etc

    Then around 2000 , years ago one Jewish sect evolved into Christianity, which unlike its Jewish parent/cousin was an evangelical sect so it encouraged conversion of the heathen.

    Then 600 years later another evangelic sect sprung up. This was forceful and successful and spread widely.

    However Christianity, and Islam both sprung from similar if not identical Semitic roots

    by daretotread on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:47 pm

  3. Rua @ 695
    Maybe it was a premium for quick delivery. Morrison had to have those boats instantly.

    by MagicPudding on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:47 pm

  4. I thought Newman said there wasn’t going to be an early election?

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:48 pm

  5. I thought Newman said there wasn’t going to be an early election?

    Who said there would be? Newman gets the royal order of the bone, Seeney continues as Premier until he has to eventually call an election.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:50 pm

  6. Bowen did well on 730.

    I haven’t been that much of a fan of his but he handled himself well and got the better of sarah henderson I think, not that she did poorly its just that Bowen was on top of the issues and questions.

    Even the interruptions were brushed aside by Bowen.

    730 tried to get hockey on but he wasn’t available – Labor have an opportunity here by making sure they always have someone available.

    by dave on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:51 pm

  7. Barnyard was meant to be on with Richo tonight. Richo just announced it is off as Abbottabad has just called a cabinet meeting. What could they be discussing ? :)

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:52 pm

  8. Ruawake

    Who is leading the ditch Newman campaign? Has he pissed off a specific faction or internal support base?

    by Darren Laver on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:55 pm

  9. PvO reckons rumours are strengthening that Truffles will be shuffled off to take over from Kimbo in Washington. Interesting times ahead.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:55 pm

  10. @Ruawake/704

    Not long ago there was talk of early election.

    From November to last month.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/broad-based-coalition-to-begin-early-election-campaign-against-lnp-20131119-2xtjt.html
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/campbell-newman-promises-2015-state-election-20140113-30pwz.html

    etc

    And If Newman is replaced, should Labor point out the hypocrisy in that?

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:55 pm

  11. MP

    Maybe it was a premium for quick delivery.

    That was probably a large part of it but I’ve also heard the engines were upgraded and larger fuel tanks. Also radio, navigation equipment and refrigeration were added.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:56 pm

  12. What could they be discussing ?

    Drought relief should be high on the agenda, Abbott made a lot of noise about it last week. The Farmers wanted something in December.

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:57 pm

  13. What could they be discussing ?

    Their scripts for tomorrow!

    by Dee on Feb 25, 2014 at 7:58 pm

  14. So they let thugs in to beat up detainees. Thats really it for the credibility of that arrangement. Its over.

    With nay luck, G4S will be bankrupted and destroyed by the consequent legal action, unless the Asutralian govt get cojoined to it, which is likely.

    Manus has to go. And heads must roll.

    by lefty e on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:04 pm

  15. PvO reckons rumours are strengthening that Truffles will be shuffled off to take over from Kimbo in Washington. Interesting times ahead.

    Truffles??

    by Darren Laver on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:04 pm

  16. What could they be discussing ?

    I was thinking more Scrot and his Island of Dr Moreauson

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:05 pm

  17. This is a clarification, but I am sure it will bring out the dissenters. My interpretation of anti-antisemitism means that not just the Jewish people are vilified, but all Arabic and related peoples (see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semitic_people).

    For Judaism, Napoleon I recognised Jewishness as a religious, not a racial, affiliation. For those of you who are talking about the lack of diversity (supposed) in Jewish genes, I despair about my Irish family. We all have fair skin, and now as we age spend an enormous amount of time and money being treated for skin cancers.

    Why did we not do the sensible thing and mate with people who would have donated some melanin to our genes?

    by Douglas and Milko on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:06 pm

  18. What could they be discussing ?

    The next Minister for Health?

    Or maybe just “we’re in deep shit. This isn’t as easy as it looked like”.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:06 pm

  19. Darren Laver

    JTI’s nickname for Talcum …..I mean Malcolm Turnbull.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:07 pm

  20. So they let thugs in to beat up detainees

    That is a very serious allegation.

    Any evidence? Who is making this claim?

    by Darren Laver on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:07 pm

  21. Darren – Malcolm Turnbull.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:07 pm

  22. How come the Orange Lifeboats cost $40,000 US but we paid $200,000 each. Was it labour to get rid of ID numbers?

    The salesmen at the lifeboat dealers know a sucker when they see one.

    by citizen on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:08 pm

  23. And that makes it OK to compare Cardinal Pell to Nazis digging mass graves, does it? (That was the original post I objected to.)

    Gee, Psephos disapproves, indeed “onjects to” a post of mine.

    I have gone into a paroxysm of self-doubt.

    Nazis were forced to atone for their actions against helpless people by being required to dig mass graves with picks and shovels. This was while Allied soldiers stood by watching, with back hoes and bulldozers at idle.

    There would be a lot of people who have no experience of Nazis, but who DO have experience of being homosexually raped in Catholic schools and other institutions where they were fostered under the care of the Church who would think Pell, with all his weasel words, obfuscations, excuses, denials, pay-offs and legal mumbo-jumbo would deserve a punishment that fitted what they believe to be his crime.

    The Nazi analogy is perfectly appropriate. Godwin’s Law is not really a “law”. It’s just something someone said, more as an observation than a denunciation or a prohibition, and I put it to anyone reading this that unless we learn the lessons of history – including Nazi history, which killed over 30,000,000 people – we are doomed to repeat it.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:09 pm

  24. The historiography of the Jewish people is very complicated and controversial.

    by Diogenes on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:09 pm

  25. citizen

    See CTar1 @710

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:11 pm

  26. There has been a death as the result of a government program

    Surely there must be a Royal Commission.

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:17 pm

  27. Watching the HoR and have been shocked, deeply shocked. some bloke talking about dairy farmers making silage (ensilage)down Murray Goulburn way. As a kiwi I find it impossible to believe that ‘Strayan farms have grass green enough :lol: …..farmers joke.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:18 pm

  28. Abbott is in need of a headline soon, it was supposed to be Thomson but they misread that badly. (nobody cares much until sentencing)

    But they need something to hit the front pages, RCs have not worked, Unions boo ho hem so what.

    Maybe a free paddle pop with every tank of petrol?

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:19 pm

  29. poroti

    I find it impossible to believe that ‘Strayan farms have grass green enough

    It’s imported from Dubai.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:20 pm

  30. AussieAchmed

    There have been wild rumours that your body surfing up Broome way has caused a few problem :)

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/21678851/surfing-croc-shuts-cable-beach/

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:20 pm

  31. Poroti,

    [Psephos is an Aussie Neocon. A surprising number of the seppo Neocons were former Trots and the like. He certainly shares a number of their particular obsessions.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoconservatism#Trotskyism_allegation

    I recall Doktor Psephos saying he was formerly, for a number of years, a Maoist, rather than Trotskyist, goodness knows why, though.

    (Somewhat curiously, I qualify for the so-called Green-Left PB Caucus, or Communist Party of PB in his eyes despite being in University, politically minded and never for a second being tempted to agree with Maoists, Leninists, Socialist Alternative or even the campus “party”-named-after-a-verb-aligned-with-Labor-Unity/Socialist Left at Uni).

    Another point. I didn’t realise Fukuyama was alive and kicking. I assigned him to the same place as most political philosophers, gone.

    by Bugler on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:23 pm

  32. That is a very serious allegation.

    Any evidence? Who is making this claim?

    The ABC and its sources,which include Manus local witnesses.

    Yes it is very very serious.

    "The G4S guards just break the fence down they told everybody to go in and stop them and hit them and fight them."

    "Because the G4S guards want manpower to help them so they took them inside, the locals helped them."

    by lefty e on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:24 pm

  33. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-24/armed-locals-let-into-manus-island-detention-centre-witness/5281012

    by lefty e on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:24 pm

  34. The latest lifeboat sent to Indonesia has dropped somewhat in value:

    BY GABRIELLE DUNLEVY, SOUTHEAST ASIA CORRESPONDENT
    February 25, 2014, 8:03 pm

    The latest lifeboat provided to return asylum seekers safely back to Indonesia's shores has arrived leaking, after hitting coral and rocks, naval officers say.

    One of the boats came ashore at Central Java's Karangjambe Beach, a coral beach, about 1pm (1700 AEDT) on Monday, with 26 men aboard.

    Staff from the Indonesian naval post at Logending Beach say it arrived damaged.

    "At first we wanted to move it," spokesman Suarto said.

    "But then, it was impossible because it's already leaking, maybe it hit rock or something."

    Another officer, Naswan, said the boat had also been looted of its equipment - life vests, ropes and TV - before the authorities found it...

    The boats were supposedly designed in a way to avoid sabotage by asylum seekers and ensure they make it back to Indonesia.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/21693754/asylum-seeker-lifeboat-arrives-leaking/

    by citizen on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:26 pm

  35. poroti

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    There have been wild rumours that your body surfing up Broome way has caused a few problem
    ================================================

    I did was take my pet croc for a walk and a surf….what pantomime, everyone in a panic.

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:26 pm

  36. CTar1

    As a kid I found ‘silage a very strange beast. The smell was simultaneously repulsive rotten and intriguingly pleasant and made you feel like smelling it again. Moo cows just scoffed it down.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:27 pm

  37. Poroti

    Would the Libs really want a by-election in Wentworth? It could go indie without Turnbull’s huge personal vote there…

    by Darren Laver on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:28 pm

  38. Rua

    You reckon we might be in for a dirt bomb from the Coalition?

    by Dee on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:31 pm

  39. Would Turnbull be willing to go? I’m not sure he’s ready to throw out the field marshall’s baton in his backpack.

    by B.C. on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:34 pm

  40. Darren Laver

    The Libs may not want it but it comes down to Truffles and PMBO’s alpha male insecurity over his position. Given a choice between swanning around in Washington with the great and the good or hanging out with PMBO the answer is a no brainer.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:36 pm

  41. poroti

    I understand the smell thing. Have dealt with some dairy cows and silage in my teens.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:37 pm

  42. You reckon we might be in for a dirt bomb from the Coalition?

    They seem to have thrown all they have and have ended up behind. If I was running their shambles it would be a good news story about spending on something. (ssorry Joe)

    by ruawake on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:41 pm

  43. AA

    I did was take my pet croc for a walk and a surf….what pantomime, everyone in a panic.

    Did it get any dogs?

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:41 pm

  44. I can understand Abbott my feel some level of insecurity given his declining popularity compared to Turnbull, but isn’t Hockey the greater danger?

    by B.C. on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:42 pm

  45. Abbott might want Turnbull gone because Turnbull’s persistently higher popularity is an embarrassment. Turnbull might be willing to go because he knows he does not have the support in the party to ever return to the leadership.

    by MagicPudding on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:42 pm

  46. Poroti

    Would the Libs really want a by-election in Wentworth? It could go indie without Turnbull’s huge personal vote there…

    The election of Peter King (not SC) is proof any lib can win that seat

    by shellbell on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:42 pm

  47. Darren

    It could go indie without Turnbull’s huge personal vote there…

    They’ve got enough of a majority in the HoR to take the risk.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:43 pm

  48. poroti,

    [AC

    Or even

    Talk Talk – Talk Talk

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqjttpl3peI

    Crikey, the Nazis wouldn’t have needed to use any rough-house interrogation methods if they played songs from that band on loop to their victims! Even Rambo would have spilled the beans after the first chorus!

    Did you notice how even the band members developed a nervous twitch after listening to their own stuff?

    by Acerbic Conehead on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:45 pm

  49. 430
    Psephos
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 3:00 pm | PERMALINK
    His son was Harthacanute, and his grandson was only a Quartercanute. (With acknowledgement to Sellars and Yateman)

    Since we’re being pernickety, it’s SellAR and YEATman, in case nobody else has pointed it out.

    by Roxanna on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:46 pm

  50. The field of candidates for Australia’s most-coveted overseas posting, ambassador to the United States, appears to be an open race among several political operatives and diplomats.

    Former defence minister Brendan Nelson, Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s national security adviser Andrew Shearer and left-field potential contender Malcolm Turnbull are among the people who may succeed current ambassador Kim Beazley, according to sources in Washington.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/us_ambassador_role_most_likely_candidates_g2hxlhQtEphX3DkTppP9ZM

    by victoria on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:46 pm

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