Crikey



Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. MagicPudding

    Summed up , in my opinion , absolutely right.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:48 pm

  2. Re BB’s so-called Nazi post.

    I certainly didn’t think BB was calling Pell a Nazi.

    I thought it was a perfect analogy to explain why this brand-spanking-new commo Pope would elevate someone of Pell’s calibre to what Boerwar tells us is the 2IC position on God’s earthly kingdom.

    What better way to punish Pell than to put him a position where he has to daily be made aware of the sins of cover-up of child-abuse practised throughout the global Catholic community, and not just for reputational reasons but for financial reasons as well – by personally have to oversee the ravages made to the Vatican’s bottom line as one by one the filthy bastards are brought to justice, and the Church suffers financially.

    Just as the Nazi guards, made to bury the people they had abused and starved to death, were forced to see at close encounters the results of their dirty work.

    by kezza2 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:50 pm

  3. Re BB’s so-called Nazi post.

    I certainly didn’t think BB was calling Pell a Nazi.

    I thought it was a perfect analogy to explain why this brand-spanking-new commo Pope would elevate someone of Pell’s calibre to what Boerwar tells us is the 2IC position on God’s earthly kingdom.

    What better way to punish Pell than to put him a position where he has to daily be made aware of the sins of cover-up of child-abuse practised throughout the global Catholic community, and not just for reputational reasons but for financial reasons as well – by personally have to oversee the ravages made to the Vatican’s bottom line as one by one the filthy bastards are brought to justice, and the Church suffers financially.

    Just as the Nazi guards, made to bury the people they had abused and starved to death, were forced to see at close encounters the results of their dirty work.

    by kezza2 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:50 pm

  4. ruawake,

    How come the Orange Lifeboats cost $40,000 US but we paid $200,000 each. Was it labour to get rid of ID numbers?

    We learned from the Titanic.

    As we were sending them as far away as possible (ie the North Atlantic) we had to re-fit them to be iceberg-proof.

    by Acerbic Conehead on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:51 pm

  5. Acerbic Conehead

    Well it was the era of Dead Or Alive and Flock of Seagulls :lol:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGNiXGX2nLU

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIpfWORQWhU

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:53 pm

  6. “Dave’ & ‘George’s” latest money making idea for the UK:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/plan-to-sell-british-visas-to-the-highest-bidders-sends-out-the-wrong-message-9150369.html

    Faark me!

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 8:56 pm

  7. If Mal goes West, who will man the gates on the failing FTTN?

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:01 pm

  8. Martin O’Shaughnessy of newspoll told Marius Benson this morning the reason for the swing to Labor was Medicare and the Age Pension.

    Greg Jennet, on the other hand, said it was just about everything you’d care to mention.

    by kezza2 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:02 pm

  9. Kezza

    In my working life I encountered several situations where the boss appointed as his 2IC someone who was absolutely no threat to him whatsoever and then usually put him in charge of the budget. Sound familiar? I guess the difference is that the pope is not usually under threat from a disloyal deputy.
    I kinda like the idea that Pell has been identified as a problem so he has been given a job where he will disappear into the papal bureaucracy and the problem might go away

    by rossmcg on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:03 pm

  10. As Tony Greig would’ve said:

    ABBORT IS FORKED

    by ShowsOn on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:04 pm

  11. zoidlord

    If Mal goes West, who will man the gates on the failing FTTN?

    Well obviously the Minister of Science………. Oh right.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:04 pm

  12. Ah, that’s better.

    Just swapped the mouse. I’ve tried everything else to stop the double posts, maybe the clicker on the mouse was a bit trigger happy.

    by kezza2 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:04 pm

  13. Piers Morgan (ex-NOTW journo)bites the dust in the US:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/tv-radio/why-cnn-may-have-pulled-the-plug-on-piers-morgan-9150337.html

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:06 pm

  14. If Mal goes West, who will man the gates on the failing FTTN

    Scott Morrison.

    by Asha Leu on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:08 pm

  15. rossmcg

    I kinda like the idea that Pell has been identified as a problem so he has been given a job where he will disappear into the papal bureaucracy and the problem might go away

    I kinda that too.

    Or maybe Pope Frank has decided to interfere in Australian politics – you know, kinda like an anti-Murdoch.

    by kezza2 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:08 pm

  16. Might be time for some new material, ShowsOn.

    by Asha Leu on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:09 pm

  17. http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/21693754/asylum-seeker-lifeboat-arrives-leaking/

    Gee, doesn’t sound like those $200,000 life boats are too safe.

    Not a good look to put rescued people into leaky boats.

    by kezza2 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:11 pm

  18. If Malcolm does “go west”, is he first to leave the sinking ship, or just making way for the ministerial reshuffle so Abbott can dump Nash… Morrison, or is too early to panick?

    by milenko on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:11 pm

  19. If Morriscum gets the NBN then what member of our armed services will get the job of running cover for him.

    (Laughed myself horse with BK comment that Scums current 3 starer is Wally Binghamton)

    http://www.dvdtalk.com/reviews/images/reviews/190/1189125265_1.jpg

    by jeffemu on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:14 pm

  20. kezza2

    “Not a good look to put rescued people into leaky boats.”

    I doubt the boat was leaky when the asylum seekers were forced into it.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:15 pm

  21. The AS should treat the orange boats with care, fill up, then head back to Australia.

    What a scream, boatpeople heading back to our shores in our boats.

    Got to be cheaper than a people smuggler :neutral:

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:18 pm

  22. kezza2

    A kiwi band had a song banned by the BBC for singing about being “6 months in a leaky boat” . Hello CTar1 and the Falklands at the time :)

    Split Enz - Six Months In A Leaky Boat 1982

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVFbNYNPbUY

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:18 pm

  23. So the Aust government blows $200k every time it turns people back in those orange boats.

    What waste?

    Are they for real?

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:20 pm

  24. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-24/armed-locals-let-into-manus-island-detention-centre-witness/5281012

    thanks to the PBers know BK was one, for this link I put it on twitter and asked for retweets etc, have been overwhelmed by the sheer volume that has ensured and still coming through, this has renewed my belief there are so many decent Australians out there!

    Mind you, a troll I had to block (not on this tweet) this morning makes me wonder sometimes :grin:

    by mari on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:22 pm

  25. poroti – I remember the ban.

    Those in power above me took it seriously.

    Everyone else though it was a huge joke.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:23 pm

  26. Centre

    “So the Aust government blows $200k every time it turns people back in those orange boats.
    What waste?
    Are they for real?”

    Compared to the cost of taking them to Christmas Island, processing them, sending them to Manus or Nauru and housing them there for a few years it may very well turn out to be a far more cost-effective option to put them on a 200k boat.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:23 pm

  27. twaddle

    It’s all a waste.

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:25 pm

  28. Speaking of things banned by the BBC, the following is much more substantive:

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nrGg8PfkbZw

    Ladies and gentleman, The War Game. Precursor to the scariest movie ever created, Threads.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:26 pm

  29. What I suggest to the people smugglers, if they come across this site by any chance, is that they circle around our waters and head to NZ.

    At the first opportunity – bang – head to our coastline.

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:27 pm

  30. CTar1

    Gave me a larf. Being “banned” would have to be the ultimate in increasing sales.

    by poroti on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:28 pm

  31. Surely if MIA Turnbull wants Washington he will get it because he has swallowed so much shit for Tones and then said ‘please sir, can I have some more’
    And surely Turnbull will want it so that he can escape the clowns in his party and responsibility for Fraudband. Makes a lot of sense to me

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:28 pm

  32. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/manus-island-how-information-is-kept-under-control-20140225-33eob.html

    Woops sorry this is the tweet I meant in my 773 comment

    by mari on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:29 pm

  33. Where did this originate that Turnbull will be given a position in the US?

    by Centre on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:30 pm

  34. Just a quick reminder. Dateline SBS starting with Whistleblower from Manus

    by guytaur on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:31 pm

  35. CTar1

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    AA

    I did was take my pet croc for a walk and a surf….what pantomime, everyone in a panic.

    Did it get any dogs?
    ========================================

    No, but it got a couple of good waves…..out there hanging 10

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:32 pm

  36. Why hang around and deliver a crap network over budget and late, to please Rupe, and then cop the blame

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:34 pm

  37. Centre – PVO is seems

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:34 pm

  38. Tone will be upset. Even without a Science Minister – science is still happening.

    When will he start burning them at the stake?

    A WA Nobel Prize winner is leading research to find out whether the bacterium that made him famous can prevent allergies in children.

    Professor Barry Marshall and colleague Robin Warren won the prize in 2005 for proving the bacterium Helicobacter pylori, rather than stress, caused stomach ulcers.

    Scientists will now examine whether it can regulate and balance the immune system in the gut, preventing eczema and more serious allergic disease in children from becoming life-long ailments.

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:36 pm

  39. Abbott said the build-up to a new government’s first budget is always a difficult time, especially when there was such a “fiscal repair job” to do.

    Well when you condone FBT rorting to the tune of $1.9billion, create 50,000 more unemployed, donate $4 billion in subsidies to mining companies and let your wealthy mates off paying taxes of course its gunna be tough.

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:40 pm

  40. I thought it was a bit odd the other day when Abbott and others were covering Morrison in accolades.

    Is it possible that he wanted to pull the pin and they were trying to assure him he should stay because they all admired him so much?

    Now there’s rumours about Turnbull going to Washington and an extraordinary cabinet meeting called.

    Reshuffle perhaps? Maybe Credlin has decided they need to do something dramatic to break the current “narrative” of the government being a f***ed up mess?

    This lot are so hypersensitive to their support level in the community that I think almost anything’s possible. Being in power and indulging in student politics games seems to be about their level of ambition.

    by ajm on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:42 pm

  41. So if Morrison gets the NBN gig….will it operate on water? And that way be a part of water operations and be secret?

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:43 pm

  42. poroti – Old fashioned ‘bootleg’ copies on sale on many corners and any London flee market.

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:43 pm

  43. AA

    out there hanging 10

    I thought they only had 4 on each foot? Is yours mutant?

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:45 pm

  44. The military commander in charge of the Government's asylum seeker boats mission has been accused of a "political cover-up" by Labor's defence spokesman.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-25/conroy-accuses-campbell-of-border-protection-cover-up/5283442

    by Dee on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:46 pm

  45. poroti

    The Independent – Tech column “Electric Eel”.

    You’d think it was April 1st. :lol:

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:47 pm

  46. Asha Leu@765

    Might be time for some new material, ShowsOn.

    He doesn’t have any. What you see is what you get, ad infinitum.

    by don on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:49 pm

  47. AA – Fibre would be totally invisible.

    No increase in current speed (capability totally Secret)

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:49 pm

  48. And to think moi thought it was just an excuse for bad behaviour.

    Paracetamol, a common pain reliever considered safe for pregnant women, has for the first time been linked to an increased risk of attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder in children.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-25/adhd-link-to-paracetamol-use-during-pregnancy/5284044

    by Dee on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:50 pm

  49. Finance Minister Mathias Cormann told a Senate estimates hearing that for its May budget preparations the government was studying the interim report from the commission of audit reviewing government operations spending.

    He also told the hearing the scoping study into how to proceed with the sale of health insurer Medibank Private should be in the hands of the federal government this week.

    The government is hoping to raise $4 billion from the sale.
    =================================

    And there’s several hundred million a year in revenue gone…..but at least Abbott’s mates will be ok.

    I wonder if any deal includes a bunch of shares or board position to Liarbel government MP’s?

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:50 pm

  50. CTar1

    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    AA

    out there hanging 10

    I thought they only had 4 on each foot? Is yours mutant?
    ============================================
    he took a couple of my toes with him

    by AussieAchmed on Feb 25, 2014 at 9:51 pm

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