Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1845 Responses

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  1. Well, Lateline is over and a US guest really damned Hockey with faint praise.

    Off to bed now. Goodnight all.

    by bemused on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:07 pm


    G4S has to be stripped of the Manus contract. There’s really no option but to shut this camp down. Any who pretends otherwise is in a state of denial. that wont last long

    This clearly looks like its a murder investigation.

    by lefty e on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:10 pm

  3. Here’s the bitter truth

    The Australian government is maintaining a “charade” on Manus Island by pretending to process the claims of asylum seekers when in fact the detention camp is designed to be nothing more than a deterrent to others, a former staff member has told SBS Dateline in an interview to be aired tonight.

    And it just blew up in the Australian government’s face.

    by lefty e on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:13 pm

  4. lefty e

    G4S has to be stripped of the Manus contract.

    G4S had already been given notice and was set to finish there on 28 March …

    by CTar1 on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:13 pm

  5. hope Morwell doesn’t go like this place

    by paaptsef on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:15 pm

  6. re Hazelwood Fire

    A coal slag heap in the Hunter Valley self combusted and burnt for decades.

    From reading the La Trobe Valley newspaper, it appears that this portion of the mine had been mined and was no longer in production. It should have been rehabilitated by covering it with soil planting vegetation – that’s expensive

    by billie on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:15 pm

  7. Lefty @851
    G4S had already lost the contract. New contractor Transfield takes over next month. However, they will be employing the same New Guinean staff:

    by MagicPudding on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:20 pm

  8. 855

    According to some of the media and others, the rehabilitation of that part of the mine had started but one of the first things that included was taking out the fire control equipment (some for scrap and some for reuse elsewhere in the mine).

    by Tom the first and best on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:23 pm

  9. The governments of both PNG and Australia desperately need to sort out resettlement arrangements for the people on Manus Island. The fact this hasn’t even been considered yet (apparently) is a disgrace.

    Get on with it!

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:24 pm

  10. Hopefully the coal seam won’t burn for 6,000 years (so far), as has been estimated for Burning Mountain in the upper Hunter in NSW.

    by Steve777 on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:25 pm

  11. Socrates, if Australia keeps going the way it is, I’ll still be tempted to relocate to the the progressive social democratic nation Scotland will be. Climate change is a serious factor – I’m looking for somewhere cooler and greener for my retirement in 20-25 years time. Scotland could become a wind, wave and tidal powerhouse, and the gas’ll keep them rich for a few more decades more – unlike Australia they are going to use the income from the nation’s resources to set themselves up for the future.

    by sustainable future on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:26 pm

  12. MGTG=No brakes=into the briar patch.

    by Pipe Fitter on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:39 pm

  13. A US black visits Uganda to report on the harsh new laws on homosexualty with life sentances for offenders
    This campaign if fueled by US fundamentalist prechers who have used their influence and monehy to acheive these new anti-gay laws
    The US black reporter exposes this and looks at the influence of the US fundamentalists in Uganda

    see film below from Guardian

    by deblonay on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:39 pm

  14. I’m not sure if this has been highlighted already, but the International Court of Justice will be ruling on East Timor’s application for “provisional measures” against Australia in relation to the raid on their lawyer’s offices at 3 pm (local time in The Hague) next Monday 3 March. The proceedings will be streamed live on the Court’s website. For details see

    by pedant on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:39 pm

  15. why would anyone with 50m$+ and 50+ years hang around in the liberal party or in parliament. turnbull must have some unfulfilled aspirations … but he will never lead anyone, he is fully compromised dancing with the devils

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:44 pm

  16. @Geoffrey/864

    Turnbull is above all, an investor.

    by zoidlord on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:47 pm

  17. Re Mlorwell

    and fires
    Mitchell on 3AW devoted must time today to the problem of the fires and was critical of the state government in it’s delay in tackling a terrible problem

    a local CFMEU offical says that the private companies had not done enough… early enough.. to address tne fire and its’ problems

    by deblonay on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:47 pm

  18. deblonay

    I am also appalled at what’s happening in Uganda. It’s obvious to me that fundamentalist Christian homophobia is the Western import they ought to be worried about, not homosexuality itself.

    by absolutetwaddle on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:49 pm

  19. discussion on latrobe interesting indeed … my partner cottoned onto this underreporting two days ago

    personally went for position at churchill some years ago – spent overnight in taralgon — am bit of canary but asthma started, blessed did not succeed. was told was bit anxious at interview, its called lack of breathing

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:51 pm

  20. zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 11:47 pm | PERMALINK

    Turnbull is above all, an investor.

    —of course. but i think he’ll cash out at first comfortable status job esp overseas … sounds like could be soon.

    by geoffrey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:53 pm

  21. Re Geoffrey @864 – I am puzzled as to why Malcolm Turnbull is still in the Federal Parliament. He is regarded by many, especially himself, as smartest guy in the room. His intellect certainly dwarfs that of his leader. And yes, with his money and talents he doesn’t have to take orders fro anyone, let alone a cretinous oaf like Abbott. He must think he has a chance of becoming PM, but I can’t see it. Even if he were to renounce belief in anthropogenic climate change, embrace the Monarchy and condemn gay marriage, his colleagues will never accept him as leader.

    by Steve777 on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:55 pm

  22. I think Turnbull still holds out hope of becoming PM. The government`s performance under Abbott would be giving him hope.

    by Tom the first and best on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:56 pm

  23. I feel I must point out that Abetz’s (zzzz) (christian) name is actually Erich.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 25, 2014 at 11:57 pm

  24. Steve777

    Re Turnbull.

    A good reason would be to influence and/or have Insider trading status in whatever the Govt is up to.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:00 am

  25. Deblonay.

    Are you on deck?

    by crikey whitey on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:01 am

  26. I wonder if Turnbull has a the so called secret wall-street calendar?

    by zoidlord on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:07 am

  27. Hopefully the coal seam won’t burn for 6,000 years (so far), as has been estimated for Burning Mountain in the upper Hunter in NSW.

    there are ancient burnt coal fields in SA near Leigh Creek that went up thousands of years ago and for thousands of years. the indigenous people have stories about them being on fire.

    there’s some evidence that large volcanoes underneath massive col beds in what is now russia caused ‘super greenhouse events’ and mass extinctions.

    the irony is that the pollution from a small fire at Hazlewood is seen as terrible (& it is), but it represents one part of sweet FA of all of the carbon pollution that occurs every day.

    I’m a little surprised hazelwood is still going – I’ve been to the bottom of the pit and the coal was sodden, with high clay content and smeared to ‘mud’ in your hand – I guess the dry summer has dried it out and stuff above the groundwater level is dry enough to burn once the outer layers went up.

    by sustainable future on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:11 am

  28. I recollect but unable to find a web reference.

    PJ O’Rourke describing a massive underground fire, set to keep on keeping on for almost ever. Coal exploitation started it, I think.

    Maybe the Appalachians. The town or towns were forcibly evacuated, though a few intrepid remain.

    Hanging on above gigantic fissures.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:18 am

  29. In some places in the northern hemisphere there have been long burning peat-bog fires,,,peat is an early stage of brown coal with which Victoria is replete…in place on the…The Great Ocean Road one can see coal seames which jut out of the cliffs near the sea and some are exposed by the waves

    by deblonay on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:39 am

  30. Deblonay

    I posted last night a Fermor etc reference.

    Look back if you wish.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:41 am

  31. G4S had already been given notice and was set to finish there on 28 March …

    Might explain why they dont appear to give a shit about the most basic things theyre supposed to do under the contract.

    by lefty e on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:44 am

  32. Where is Psesphos tonight..?

    Has he despaired of all we commnists…he seemed very unhappy with us all this afternoon
    when will we ever learn ?

    by deblonay on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:44 am

  33. gee malcolm could almost afford rupert’s new ny place. but he’s have to sell eastern suburbs. all things are relative.

    by geoffrey on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:44 am

  34. crikey whitey
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 12:00 am | PERMALINK

    Re Turnbull.

    A good reason would be to influence and/or have Insider trading status in whatever the Govt is up to.

    ………….ha ha of course that’s it … another 100,000 a week

    by geoffrey on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:51 am

  35. The paiful story of a sick 7 year old Palestinian boy and t his harsh treatment by the Israeli soldiers of he and his father as they returned from surgery and had problems with a mislaid permit… at a check point on a bleak winter’s day

    by deblonay on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:55 am

  36. Bemused I was wondering why the mine wasn’t flooded


    The fire has received plenty of coverage, the problem for the media is there is mostly only smoke, the media like to show fire racing towards houses which thankfully is not the case in the coal mine as far as i am aware off.

    by mexicanbeemer on Feb 26, 2014 at 12:56 am

  37. Yep,only smoke.

    Triggers a memory of Stuart Diver, Thredbo disaster.

    The attractive bimbo was reporting the scene wholly unaware that Diver was actually found as she chatted on.

    I remarked to my phone caller that she and the station had no idea of the remarkable scene being enacted behind the shot.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 26, 2014 at 1:05 am

  38. Oh well, Deblonay.

    You are eighty after all.


    by crikey whitey on Feb 26, 2014 at 1:08 am

  39. Deb

    Where is Psesphos tonight..

    Don’t mention WWII … (Or at least a particular entity involved.

    by CTar1 on Feb 26, 2014 at 1:09 am

  40. Historical Pictures ‏@AncientPics 59s

    Kids these days are addicted to their phones.

    Perhaps next time Adults complain about Kids and their phones…

    by zoidlord on Feb 26, 2014 at 1:15 am

  41. Yeah, right …

    Rebekah Brooks: ‘I did not know phone hacking was illegal,’ court hears

    by CTar1 on Feb 26, 2014 at 2:04 am

  42. Tas to loose FTTP rollout:

    by zoidlord on Feb 26, 2014 at 2:15 am

  43. UPDATE: 04:34:00 26/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ #auspol

    by Otiose on Feb 26, 2014 at 4:34 am

  44. Lefty E

    It seems that Manus and Nauru have become Australia’s prison hulks. That whole “first as history, then as farce” thing comes to mind.

    by Fran Barlow on Feb 26, 2014 at 6:37 am

  45. The ReachTEL poll of Treasurer Tim Nicholls’s seat of Clayfield, commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union, shows a swing of 14 per cent against the LNP.

    While the poll surveyed just 711 residents and carries an error margin on both sides of 3.7 per cent, it comes just days after a 17.2 per cent swing against the government in the Redcliffe byelection.

    Mr Nicholls would retain his seat, but a statewide 14 per cent swing would see the Newman government lose 39 seats, including the Premier’s seat of Ashgrove, relegating the LNP to a one-term governmen

    Read more:

    by ruawake on Feb 26, 2014 at 6:46 am

  46. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    This debt guarantee for Qantas puts our balance sheet at serious risk. Qantas is no Westpac. It’s a broken outfit still under the control of a very flaky board.
    MUST READ! Ross Gittins says Abbott has taken us to a new all-time political low.
    Now THAT’S what you call a sense of entitlement!
    What a shocking indictment of the society of the time!
    Channel 7 takes the gloves off and sues the AFP.
    Looks science got trashed again in the Luddites’ Party Room.
    The house of lies is tumbling down.
    And the press, having been treated like this, may not be there to help them.
    The Guardian is piecing together the events on Manus Island – and it’s not pretty!
    Tony Wright is losing his patience on the matter.

    by BK on Feb 26, 2014 at 6:47 am

  47. Section 2 . . .

    Whatever you think, this is not a pretty picture.
    Talk about a red rag to a bull!!
    This looks like a bit of a mess.
    Where are the jobs coming from Mr Hockey?–where-is-the-job-20140225-33ffj.html
    Alan Moir has Hockey seeking advice.
    WOW! David Pope with a view of Abbott’s priorities.
    David Rowe with a ripper on Health and education surgery.

    by BK on Feb 26, 2014 at 6:48 am

  48. Re 890 – if successful, that could open up lots of defences “I thought speed limit signs were were advisory only”, “I thought filling in a tax return was voluntary”, “I didn’t know you weren’t supposed to smoke that stuff or bring it into the country”…

    Re 893 – so the next step is to send asylum seekers to England, without asking the local inhabitants’ permission first.

    by Steve777 on Feb 26, 2014 at 6:52 am

  49. And from the Land of the Free –

    Arizona – the Hate State!
    Anderson Cooper demolishes a homophobic Arizonan Senator.
    I suppose one could say this is funny.
    The Repugs are getting desperate.

    by BK on Feb 26, 2014 at 7:07 am

  50. Morning all.

    Thanks BK. Hard to read Gittins article over breakfast though!

    by mikehilliard on Feb 26, 2014 at 7:13 am

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