tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it’s far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

3632
  • 51
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    “@joeobrien24: Qantas announcement due out any moment .. watch @abcnews24 .. Alan Joyce speech at 1030 AEDT”

  • 52
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    Just in case anyone wanted to know, Murdoch media has launched a full scale attack on Stephen Conroy – “a sackable offence” etc.

  • 53
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    poroti@46

    dave

    In a cunning plan to remove the last Australian competition they’ll pick up Qantas cheap and do another Ansett

    You’ve been sniffing the pharmaceuticals pretty early today old mate :)

  • 54
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Morning all.

    Peter Watson has done a round up of coalition cuts to schools in his local electorate.
    https://www.facebook.com/128319693909342/photos/a.347846941956615.82769.128319693909342/599492496792057/?type=1&theater

    A total of $1.6m in one area alone!

  • 55
    autocrat
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Socrates:

    I was wrong about who owns Qantas, forgetting that the private equity offer got ditched. These are the investment geniuses that own most Qantas share. More than 70% of the share are held by four groups.

    The largest Qantas shareholder—with 22.72 percent of the company—is J. P. Morgan Nominees Australia, a division of the global J. P. Morgan investment house.
    The second largest is HSBC Custody Nominees with 18.91 percent. Next is National Nominees with an 18.26 percent stake. The fourth largest is Citicorp Nominees.

    So Australian taxpayers will be guaranteeing the debts of foreign investors who goofed.

    Must correct this. The nominee companies are the registered holders because they act as custodians/administrators for the funds that hold the shares beneficially. It simply makes it easier to do the paperwork. I think you’ll find the largest shareholders are superannuation funds, and by far the largest of these are industry super funds.

  • 56
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    Ummm……didn’t Rabbott tell parliament he was not aware of Furnival’s connection to Cadbury/junk food industry?

  • 57
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Is the hockey club responsible for this leak?

    LABOR has seized on reports the Commission of Audit has criticised Tony Abbott’s proposed paid parental leave scheme as too costly.

    The commission’s interim report says the scheme is too generous in light of the budget’s unhealthy position, the Australian Financial Review reports.

    The scheme, planned to begin in July 2015, will cost about $5.5 billion a year.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-parental-leave-scheme-under-new-attack/story-fn59niix-1226839113827

  • 58
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Dee

    We all know fhat Abbott is the consumate liar

  • 59
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Oops consummate

  • 60
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    Would I be right in saying that Qantas wants guarantees so that it can destroy its workforce and then sell-out to a foreign owner? And the benefit to taxpayers is????

    I can’t believe the shareholders didn’t spill the whole board more than a year ago, they deserve the massive losses their stupid board has inflicted with possibly the worst business plan ever. But the age of entitlement isn’t over for people Abbott likes. Sad he hates workers, I hope the ones who voted for him suffer first and most – fools.

  • 61
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@47

    Would I be right in saying that Qantas wants guarantees so that it can destroy its workforce and then sell-out to a foreign owner? And the benefit to taxpayers is????

    Thats one scenario, plenty in the mix to choose from.

    The basic facts are that they have had woeful management for years and persisted in flying some overseas routes on which they were losing heaps of money – all in the name of expansion and so called ‘breaking into’ new markets etc.

    The more they lost money, the more they attacked their own workers, seeking to reduce conditions etc while giving themselves big salary increases.

    At one stage Dixon was one of highest paid airline chief exeuctives in the world with a total annual ‘package’ up around $10 Million.

    Joyce started on much much less but has had his start pay at least doubled maybe tripled as the same time as the airline when down the financial gurgler and he sacked heaps of people etc.

    Same old same old.

    Now its the time of taxpayers to kiss Joyce’s arse and refill his wallet.

  • 62
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    How many times are farmers going to allow themselves to be stiffed before they start taking action at the ballot box?

    Farmers in drought-affected parts of WA have hit out over restrictions on financial aid packages being rolled out by Federal and State governments.

    They said not even a trickle of funds had reached families on the edge of the eastern Wheatbelt where crops failed last year.

    Marvel Loch farmer Romolo Patroni blamed the State Government for imposing onerous conditions on Federal-funded concessional loans. WA farmers must use the concessional loans to invest in boosting productivity.

    They cannot use money from a $25 million pool available in 2013-14 to restructure debt, a feature of packages in other States.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/21719160/farmers-angry-at-aid-limits/

    Abbott’s response is to just allow farmers to take on more debt.

  • 63
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Jonathan Swan In no way am I suggesting that @JoeHockey was aware of that PPL leak. The Treasurer is understood to care deeply about the PM's scheme.

  • 64
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    autocrat @ 55.

    yep correct.

  • 65
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    Just in case anyone wanted to know, Murdoch media has launched a full scale attack on Stephen Conroy – “a sackable offence” etc.

    I was pretty disappointed he didn’t make his very fair and important attack a little more sophisticated. Something more like “Don’t you concede that to the average Australian this farce with you reporting directly to Morrison and the excessive and unreasonable restriction of information is going to be seen as the military, and more importantly you, covering up for this Government and its terrible policy implementation.”

    And even more disappointed that the Labor caucus gave him half hearted support at best. Didn’t they learn anything from Abbott about attacking a point as a unified team.

  • 66
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    Ooohh, look, it’s not even behind the paywall — wonder why?

    WHILE Stephen Conroy was cutting his teeth as a union official and political staffer, the Cambridge-educated Angus Campbell was rising through the infantry and SAS ranks to lead troops in operations across three continents.

    Oh, well, that’s it – game over. I mean, when Conroy was cutting his teeth career wise, so was Campbell, so no contest…and Campbell was educated at Cambridge, not some scummy Australian hovel of a University.

    The Senator's attack... has become a clarion call to the defence of the military brass, who have long stayed on the sidelines of political debate.

    Australian Defence Association spokesman Neil James, who has repeatedly warned the government about the risk of politicising the armed forces..

    Right. So apparently Neil James is now ‘military brass’ and has never, ever tried to politicise anything…well, not until now, anyway.

    ‘The Aus’ then goes on to outline each man’s respective careers, with the implication that Conroy isn’t fit to lick Campbell’s shoes…but in reality, simply showing that both men have served their country (in their own way) for the bulk of their adult lives.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/campbell-and-conroy-contrasting-lives/story-fn59niix-1226838614294?sv=dd00f5c2387a850c2f7d1b02dfcf3d2b#

    I mean, how dare an elected Senator serving in the Australian Parliament question someone who’s been to Cambridge?

  • 67
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: #breaking Qantas announces 5000 jobs to go”

  • 68
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    Qantas job losses being reported as 5000 full time jobs

  • 69
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    “@WeFightForFair: Media release: Iranian #refugee sues Aus Govt over #immigration detention assault, trauma http://t.co/AlOU5Vqnf5 #villawood #christmasisland”

  • 70
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    The Senator's attack... has become a clarion call to the defence of the military brass, who have long stayed on the sidelines of political debate.

    Absolute rubbish, they have always had a very deep institutional right wing conservative bias, which the best of them hide most of the time. They often come off the sidelines to protect their own interests.

  • 71
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    In all the media talk about the woes of Qantas, little mention is made of the company’s horrendous losses on Jetstar’s forays into Asia. Crikey’s Plane Talking blog covers this well.

    Essentially, while the Qantas brand has been left with older planes and declining routes overseas, countless millions have been ploughed into using the Jetstar subsidiary to develop regional routes within Asia. The problem is that there is now intense competition between newly emerging discount airlines within the Asian region, as well as the actions of some governments, notably Vietnam and Hong Kong, to protect their own carriers.

    So a lot of the financial woes facing Qantas are the result of poor business decisions to move away from their core business into very risky ventures. One might ask why Australian taxpayers and Qantas employees should be expected to prop up these foolhardy actions of the current Qantas management.

  • 72
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: #breaking Qantas announces 5000 jobs to go”

    If I was a shareholder the most important of the jobs to go would be the board and senior management, real value could be unlocked from getting rid of them. The others are just a short term cost saving, which we can’t be sure will not adversely affect performance, service delivery and cost over time.

  • 73
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    The Treasurer is understood to care deeply about the PM's scheme.

    Surely that’s written in sarcasm?

  • 74
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    5,000 Qantas jobs to go.

    But the Board will be OK. They spent $400+million buying Qantas shares to use as part of a bonus package for themselves.

    Again, the workers suffer the incompetence of management while those same incompetent board members get multi million dollar bonuses

  • 75
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Given the $252 million loss Even institutional shareholders will be demanding heads role starting with Joyce.

  • 76
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Ah, so when Qantas said the rumours of 3000 jobs to go was false it was because it was higher, not lower.

  • 77
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    WEWANTPAUL – And some bozo on the backbench allegedly told Mark Simpkins that what Conroy did was inexcusable. What a total prat.

  • 78
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    61...dave

    Airlines are notoriously difficult to run. Very few make any money at all, let alone make worthwhile returns on their capital. Even Singapore Airlines, with all its advantages, earned just 2.5% on its equity in 2011/12, while the return to total capital was only about 1.3%

    There is only one reason taxpayers should be involved in aviation, and that is when there would be no private capital available. This was certainly the case when Qantas was taken into public ownership before WW2. But it is not at all the case now. There are private operators willing and able to provide aviation services in this market.

    In my opinion, there is no reason for taxpayers to support Qantas or any other airline. The current board has grossly mismanaged their franchise and should be sacked, and the company should be restructured without taxpayer assistance.

  • 79
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    @Thought4rce: Unionized Air New Zealand posts $300m profit on the same day union-busting #Qantas posts massive loss. #sackjoyce #auspol

  • 80
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Tony is trying to kill his own PPL scheme, and this leak paves the way for a backdown.

  • 81
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    This is what happens when you have mining executives running airline companies. What a joke.

  • 82
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Tony is trying to kill his own PPL scheme, and this leak paves the way for a backdown.

    Spot on!

  • 83
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    The Qantas debacle and job losses will quickly overshadow Sen Conroy vs the 3* General in the media.

    Ch10 news yesterday ran a piece on job losses and interviewed the unhappy owner of a welding business in Western Sydney who served manufacturing clients.

    We may start to see a ‘league table’ of job losses in some of the media. This should focus the collective minds of Abbott, Hockey & co.

  • 84
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    @guytaur/79

    AusBusinessTraveller ‏@AusBT 3m

    Qantas posts $252 million loss over Jul-Dec 2013 period – biggest in two decades since privatisation #QFresults

    Blame privatization…

  • 85
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    guytaur@75

    Given the $252 million loss Even institutional shareholders will be demanding heads role starting with Joyce.

    That loss is only for the first half.

    Jesus wept.

  • 86
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Tony is trying to kill his own PPL scheme, and this leak paves the way for a backdown.

    Yeah, I was thinking along the same lines. Surely they won’t go through with it. They will use the line about it not being affordable in the current economic climate blah blah.

  • 87
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    The abc are running a live blog for the unfolding news on Qantas.

  • 88
    mari
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-parental-leave-scheme-under-new-attack/story-fn59niix-1226839113827
    sent to me by a follower who like me is amazed this is in the Oz and not paywalled

  • 89
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Isn’t that the point of the Commission of Audit. It gives the Libs the perfect cover to junk all their promises and make deep spending cuts.

  • 90
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    obamma44@31

    I raised this with William when the poll came out as the figures in their own data show 52-48. William’s explanation had something to do with working out the figures against which voting intention.

    Anyway, he has stuck with 53-47.

    As far as what the OO thinks about Conroy, who cares?

    While lazy journalists at the ABC quote the Oz, hardly anybody actually reads the paper (170,000 daily Oz wide is it?) – this would translate to about 17,000 for the whole of WA. The West Australian is struggling to survive on its own patch as well.

    Those who do read it are not your average middle of the road voters, who are fair minded and can see pro Liberal bias when they see it. No, it is our local print version of Fox news, talking to the converted.

    The sad fact is the Oz has been, for a lengthy period of time, the mouthpiece of Murdoch’s support for the Coalition. Not that this insight is worth a damn but I do miss the Oz for the cryptic I must say.

    While old Murdoch has good genes and will probably live until he is 150, it is likely that nobody else will be willing to fund the losses on what is, essentially, his private news letter to the electorate for the Liberals.

  • 91
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    mari
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:57 am | PERMALINK
    http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-parental-leave-scheme-under-new-attack/story-fn59niix-1226839113827
    sent to me by a follower who like me is amazed this is in the Oz and not paywalled

    Even Abbott probably realises that it would be political madness to go ahead with the scheme in the current climate of massive job losses and “end of age of entitlement”.

  • 92
    jeffemu
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    5000 jobs arhhhh ummmm humbug.

    Remember what Forrest Gump once said, Life is like a choc-o-late factory

  • 93
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    @sspencer_63: According to the Tele, the bloke on the left is Lt Gen Angus Campbell. http://t.co/IlYyKKQ6Bz

  • 94
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    madcyril

    It gives the Libs the perfect cover to junk all their promises and make deep spending cuts.

    I can already hear the oh so mournful tone of PMBO’s voice as he announces that, despite his heroic efforts, he has been forced to renege on all his promises.

  • 95
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    I can already hear the oh so mournful tone of PMBO’s voice as he announces that, despite his heroic efforts, he has been forced to renege on all his promises.

    Yes, and it will be all Labor’s fault for the tragic state of the budget. :mad:

  • 96
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    briefly
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    61...dave

    Airlines are notoriously difficult to run.

    In my opinion, there is no reason for taxpayers to support Qantas or any other airline. The current board has grossly mismanaged their franchise and should be sacked, and the company should be restructured without taxpayer assistance.

    Yes – even more difficult to run when management persists for many years flying routes which bleed bright red ink, year after year after year. For most of that time Qantas made heaps on their very profitable domestic routes but not enough to cover management incompetence and importantly the more recent intensive domestic competition from Virgin.

    The price war tactics Qantas used on its competitors so often in the past were finally used back on them with devastating effect.

    I agree they shouldn’t get taxpayers assistance – not a penny.

    abbott hasn’t wasted much time in ‘picking winners’ and showing he embraces ‘no failure’ style capitalisism, err… so long as you bat for the tories.

    But workers — flush them away.

  • 97
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    guytaur@93

    Is that a parody or for real?

  • 98
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott might ‘defer’ his PPL scheme until he has ‘repaired Labor’s budget mess’ and try to get disappointed parents to be to blame Labor. Thereafter, the scheme will never be mentioned again.

  • 99
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    Just saw reply of Richo in Sky from last night. Boy does he have a go at Alan Joyce

  • 100
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Though most people have high regard for our service men and woman, there is an underlying suspicion of those at the top.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...