tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it’s far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

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  • 101
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Dee

    The “Carbon tax” would also have to get a run.

  • 102
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Dee

    Agree with you on that. Very much like the police force

  • 103
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    briefly@78

    Yes, national airlines are maybe now a thing of the past.

    If deregulation in the States shows anything at all, even the biggest can fail.

    What deregulation also tends to show is that in an attempt to “cut costs” whether it be through declining standards of crew competence, short cuts in maintenance or reduced services, safety is always on the line.

    At some point the consumer makes a choice. On the supermarket shelf, a cheap import for the local brand and, unfortunately, with air travel much the same. Consumer are willing to put up with the joys of Tiger or Easyjet to get the cheapest fair to get from A-B.

    This is not excusing poor management. Ansett failed mainly for this reason (too many different aircraft) and Qantas is just too small, globally, to match it with the likes of Emirates.

    It should be added of course, that Emirates has very deep pockets and were it not for support from government in the UAE it is doubtful whether Emirates could do what they are doing now – growing like topsy.

  • 104
    MagicPudding
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Shorten was just on ABC news apologising for his claim that a Liberal minister called some general a coward during 2007 Senate hearings. Didn’t Psephos say he witnessed that happening?

  • 105
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    The Commission of Audit has criticised the government’s proposed paid parental leave scheme as excessive at a time when fiscal restraint is needed.

    The Australian Financial Review understands the commission’s interim report, delivered to the government 13 days ago, supports the concept of paid parental leave but finds that Mr Abbott’s scheme is too generous given the state of budget.

    Mr Abbott’s scheme, to begin on July 1, 2015, will cost about $5.5 billion a year. It would pay recipients their full wage for six months, capped at an annual salary of $150,000, or $75,000 for six months.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/audit_cold_on_abbott_parent_leave_WRMrop9MjDcE0wNogTLxIN

  • 106
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    Isn’t the Ashby/Harmers appeal decision being delivered today?

  • 107
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    In answer to my own question: Ashby/Harmer judgement being delivered at 2.15pm.

  • 108
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    So the 2,000 job losses touted a few days ago morphed into 3,000 losses and now announced at 5,000.

    Any other bids or offers?

    Who really can give any credence to anything one is served up as “news” these days?

    I wonder how many of the jobs are high skilled engineering jobs?

    Bang goes a bit more of valuable infrastructure. All those guys and galls moving back and forth between the RAAF and civilian aviation will need to have a career rethink I suppose.

  • 109
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    I can already hear the oh so mournful tone of PMBO’s voice as he announces that, despite his heroic efforts, he has been forced to renege on all his promises.

    Indeed. And of course, we know who will get the blame for the Libs having to break their promises.

  • 110
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    Qantas is big news all right. The ABC , the Hun and the SMH all have live rolling coverage of it.

  • 111
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    MagicPudding@104

    Shorten was just on ABC news apologising for his claim that a Liberal minister called some general a coward during 2007 Senate hearings. Didn’t Psephos say he witnessed that happening?

    Yes. Shorten also stated it yesterday in his HoR speech, ie

    Senator Rolandson called General Gillespie a coward in Senate Estimates in 2010

    Psephos
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    Shorten’s speech is on youtube. He was bloody good

    I’m glad someone reminded Shorten about Ronaldson calling General Gillespie a coward in estimates a few years ago. I was there for that encounter, and it was a shameful performance.

  • 112
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    There apparently is nothing in Hansard re Ronaldson calling Gillespie a coward, so Shorten has apologised

  • 113
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    I can already hear the oh so mournful tone of PMBO’s voice as he announces that, despite his heroic efforts, he has been forced to renege on all his promises.

    “There are no easy answers.”

    “No such thing as a magic wand.”

    “There’s always the Dole Office.”

    “Alan Joyce is doing a fine job.”

    “Carbon Tax and Teh Unions are a crippling combination.”

    “The government is the best friend Qantas ever had.”

    “It had to come to this. Qantas just wasn’t sustainable.”

  • 114
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Mr Shorten got the ”coward” tip from his Victorian Labor colleague David Feeney. Mr Feeney had passed a note to the Opposition Leader telling him about Senator Ronaldson’s alleged exchange with the Chief of Army in 2011.
    When Fairfax Media called Mr Feeney on Thursday morning, the member for Batman admitted he might have unwittingly misinformed his leader.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-apologises-over-mistaken-comments-to-parliament-in-defence-on-stephen-conroy-20140227-33jbi.html#ixzz2uTPnrXvO

  • 115
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    What are the odds this won’t apply to Joyce and the rest of the incompetents ?

    Qantas have suggested they will seek to freeze wages until they achieve a full year underlying profit.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-chief-alan-joyce-cuts-5000-jobs-20140227-33j48.html#ixzz2uTPTUKFz

  • 116
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Tricot

    The last informed estimate i heard of the Australian’s circulation in WA was in the realm of ten or 11 thousand with double on weekends. Given that was a few years ago I doubt it has increased, almost certainly gone backwards. Only the blind believers would bother with it.

  • 117
    mari
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    Thanks for all the comments on The Oz article re PPL , think they are correct. Way out for Tony Abbott to bleat about having to defer because of terrible state of finances caused by of course ALP, should have guessed with The Oz reporting

  • 118
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    Joyce whinging about Virgin on Sky. Everybody else’s fault I suppose.

  • 119
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    I assume all those people with such admiration for the military and police know very few of them personally.

  • 120
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    No excuse for the Liberals reneging on their promises. Tony Abbott spent three years telling us that Australia’s budget position was as bad as Greece’s (or Zimbabwe’s), that that ‘Carbon Tax’ will be a wrecking ball that will shut down Australian industry, that every Government decision carried ‘sovereign risk’ and that commerce Western Sydney will shut down because traffic jams caused by asylum seekers will cut that region off from the rest of Australia (OK, I made that last one up). Yet he still made his promises. No surprises, no excuses.

  • 121
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    So now we have a Prime Minister for Unemployment?

    5,000 Qantas jobs to go! Unbloody belivable!

    Joyce has to go!

    Who will be employed at all at the end of this bloody government apart from Abbott and his cronies?

  • 122
    Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    By squirreling George Pell away in a badly-refurbished Vatican dungeon, Pope Francis may think he is the 21st Century’s answer to Machiavelli, but, in reality, he is merely an apprentice altar-boy in comparison to Glittering George and his Byzantine brother-in-arms, Tony Abbott.

    Where does Frankie think he is – Hollywood? Doesn’t he realise that now George and Tones only have to click their gold and diamond-encrusted fingers, sell a few chalices each week, and, bingo, be able to pay off all their debts and finance all their whacko policies?

    Tones can finally say goodbye to his big fat mortgage. He can visit his mate in the Vatican every week and claim even more travel allowances than Armstrong did when he went to the Moon. Paying for his Paid Parental Leave scheme will be like throwing loose change at Lazarus under the table. Those orange tubs bought by that Proddie-dog Morrison will be surplus to requirements as Tones will now get an endless gratis supply of good Catholic Barques of Peter instead.

    And that’s only for starters.

    It’ll be like the multiplication of the loaves and fishes.

    You know it makes sensus fidelium.

  • 123
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    BB

    I agree with you and Kristina Keneally on Pell I do not trust him at all!

  • 124
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Mr Shorten got the ”coward” tip from his Victorian Labor colleague David Feeney.

    Psephos said last night that he was there when Ronaldson made the remark and remembers it very clearly.

  • 125
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    AC

    Good post Pell out of Australia is fine with me hope he takes all of his secrets with him.

  • 126
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    confessions

    No doubt the comment was made. Why would Feeney mention it to Shorten. But unfortunately Conveniently, Ronaldson does not recall making the comment, and fhere is nothing in Hansard. What else is Shorten to do

  • 127
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Joyce moaning about fuel costs. Strange Air NZ commenting on their record profit today noted one of the things that helped was “Fuel – the biggest single cost on most flights – remains stable.” .

  • 128
    pseph
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Pollbluger; Wasn’t the Nielsen Poll last week 52-48 2PP, not 53:47? If so, does this affect the Bludgertrack for this week?

  • 129
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    vic

    If Shorten apologised good on him.

    Have we had any apologies from the Libs over the abuse they have leveled at the ALP!

  • 130
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    poroti

    Joyce should just accept responsibility for the mess he has been part of and take the wrap.

  • 131
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    mtbw

    Under circumstances, Shorten did the right thing.

  • 132
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    The first government in Australian history that gives businesses hand-outs for sacking workers.

  • 133
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    DEE – Most people love soldiers and hate politicians. But they know that in a stoush between the two, they’ve got to side with the politicians.

  • 134
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    The Qantas story will probably trump all others in the media today and tomorrow.

    Qantas is an Australian icon. Even after it was privatised, people still considered it to be ‘their’ airline and a symbol of Australia.

    What Joyce and co have done to Qantas is nothing short of scandalous. Blaming everyone else is ridiculous.

    Ben Sandilands’ Plane Talking blog on Crikey has all details of the announcement by Joyce. The future of Qantas is grim. The future of the employees is grim. Yet another enterprise tanking under the watch of the current government.

  • 135
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    pseph@128

    I raised this with William a couple of weeks ago and I have mentioned it earlier this morning.

    William noted the 52-48 but went with the 53-47 as the the decided figure had something to do with voter preferences and at what election.

    I can’t remember William’s exact words, but he seems to be happy with the 53-47 rather than the given 52-48, though what point of 0.0000 difference will make I will leave to those who did higher than my poor Stat Method at Uni.

  • 136
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    I hope this is almost the last time we’ll have to listen Joyce.

  • 137
    mari
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    pseph
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 10:51 am | PERMALINK
    Pollbluger; Wasn’t the Nielsen Poll last week 52-48 2PP, not 53:47? If so, does this affect the Bludgertrack for this week?

    Yes correct well picked up

  • 138
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    Ben Sandilands has now lifted the possible job losses to 7,000 for Qantas.

    Sky’s the limit for Qantas it would seem

  • 139
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    Why? Is joyce going to resign?

  • 140
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    vic – He should or be given the shove by the shareholders.

    Just a wish!

  • 141
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    Wonder whether the Qantas board members are taking a pay cut to help out?

    You can bet your bottom dollar they aren’t.

  • 142
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    CTari

    I hope this is almost the last time we’ll have to listen Joyce.

    Wake me up when it’s over.

  • 143
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    @strom_m: #BREAKING Australia should cut emissions by 19 per cent by 2020: Climate Change Authority report

    http://t.co/yzCzhiaMS3 via @smh

  • 144
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    “@political_alert: The Australian Greens will hold a press conference to respond to today’s announcements from Qantas, 11:40am, Parliament House #auspol”

  • 145
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    The Coalition is so sure that the “carbon tax” is the root of all profit evil. They have never tried to look at reducing carbon from any other angle. There were examples given during the Gillard era of businesses saving money by changing their work practices.

    Professor Markey says Australian workplaces should look to positive carbon-reduction programs in countries such as Germany and the UK.

    "The most important trigger for the changes that have occurred has been cost reduction," he said.

    "There are some best-practice stories... where changing work practices really has...reduced costs in a major way."

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-27/workplaces-carbon-emissions-public-policy/5286974

  • 146
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Sen x wants independent judicial inquiry into Qantas

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: #Qantas LIVE: Opposition Leader @BillShortenMP & @AlboMP speaking on Qantas job cuts http://t.co/xmRNmRj7eR #auspol #ausbiz”

  • 148
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    victoria

    I actually think the Senator has a case. ASIC should be looking at breach of looking for profit.

  • 149
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    This Qantas media release details the whole sorry saga:

    http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-strategy-update-2

    Even if you survive the job cuts, your wages will be frozen until Qantas turns a profit. With the cut in new plane purchases, you will be flying in an ageing fleet. But never fear, when that devilish Virgin is removed from the skies, things will get better.

  • 150
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    It is one thing for government to co-invest in a business with a clear direction and purpose and a potential ROI but i have to question the justification for government covering QANTAS debt.

    Debt financing is best done in the banking sector where the apatite for risk is best managed.

    The government needs to obtain Alan Joyce’s head as he has repeatably shown poor business performance.

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