tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it’s far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

3632
  • 1601
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

    poroti:

    :lol:

    I’m actually looking forward to it. I don’t think this kind of statewide by-election has ever happened before in Australia.

  • 1602
    poroti
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    I wonder how much of WA Voters will be fooled by “bribes” from the Liberals in WA?

    Bribes ? Faaark the Emperor has had wall to wall news of him breaking each and every election promise for months. Today the local media started a regular foot massage feature where Colon blames Canberra like for everything. That said “Stop the Boats” and all that comes with it goes down very well in the wild wild west.

  • 1603
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    mikeh:

    The softening up has already commenced:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-28/tony-abbott-on-northern-australia-development-white-paper/5291174?section=wa

  • 1604
    dave
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

    Compact Crank

    If the law is changed again so that investment advisers are **NOT** required to act primarily in their clients interests – its will give a huge boost to Industry Super Funds.

    All they need do is state, “We will always act in members interests” to the existing “All profits go to members”.

    Tories and their mates will lose again.

  • 1605
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    Astrobleme

    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    CC

    “The significant number of Environmental Approvals that have been made on hundreds of millions of dollars worth of projects (previously held up by the ALP) will generate both short term and long term jobs for thousands of Australians.”

    WHERE???? WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT??? WHICH ONES????
    —————————————————

    The ones that involve the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef and Tasmania’s old growth forests, along destroying ground water with the fracking….

  • 1606
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

    Abbott Projects

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BheparXCMAA91Uz.png

  • 1607
    fredex
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    Mining companies are cutting investment in Oz dramatically because demand for their product has nose dived.
    Nothing to do with red tape or price on carbon or wages or anything else [except maybe the lingering GFC].

    So the push against ‘red tape/green tape’ is just an ideological push by the right wing fanatics such as the IPA and Tony and BCA and the media and all that mob.
    Part of their DNA.

    Meanwhile they claim it will lead to millions of jobs that will generate billions of dollars for all of us for umpteen years. Forever, just like the last time and the time before.
    Of course it’s true, would they lie?

    As a bonus it will enhance the tourist industry at the Great Barrier Reef when people will flock to the Reef from all over the world to see a dead reef and there will be a line-up of tourist boats from the multitudes of hotels that sprang up to cater for the tourists brought in by Qantas. Similar to Tassie forests, green fields being fracked, fisheries will expand cos there will be more room for fish cos we grab them by the super net full creating space.
    And so on.

    It’s all so credible isn’t it?

  • 1608
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    Graph that shows how those terrible unions have been extracting wage rises that outstrip …..

    um er…well no one

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bf_1uICCIAALrxQ.jpg

  • 1609
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    Our farmland is safe???

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bf3PQeYCQAAfdRT.jpg

  • 1610
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    Will Qantas be Australia’s equivalent??

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BfLQ9jnCEAAQiD7.jpg

  • 1611
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    "The Ord is not a food bowl; it is a wood pile,"

    You really have to wonder about this lot.

  • 1612
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    Wage rises hurting the economy?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdvPTrtCUAA92YU.jpg

  • 1613
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    Poroti

    Yeah and Colin covered himself with glory today by suggesting that people who thought education was more important than his pet project Elizabeth quay should get a life.
    He really is a cranky old man. Been in parliament so long he is completely out of touch with reality.

  • 1614
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    If Rob Johnson’s comments are anything to go by, the WA Libs are about to axe Barnett and replace him with Buswell, because they fear Barnett’s unpopularity will cost them a Senate seat in April.

  • 1615
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    Killing the earth

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWXwIvCAAAjWrD.jpg

  • 1616
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    Abbott wants a new Ord.

    Like the old one that has a 741 km² lake to irrigate 117 km² of sugar and sandalwood.

    You know it makes sense.

  • 1617
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    who is probably the most left-wing member of the Caucus. The number three on the ticket is a gay man. I don’t know what more you want.

    I want an ALP that does not select people like bullock. My dislike is entirely personal – the right must have people opposed to abortion (women) quite happy to inflict their religious views on others through legislation but still fundamentally decent with a respectable intellect.

    If I had to save the life of either Abbott or Bullock Tony would be saved. Yes bullock is that bad before you consider his interesting views.

  • 1618
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    Fracking

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhiXwb6CMAEj6Jq.jpg

  • 1619
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    mikeh:

    I think the NT Chief Minister is on the money:

    Territory Chief Minister Adam Giles recently said Queensland bureaucrats have been dominating discussions on the plan.

    I’m sure Abbott only threw mention of the Ord in because of the forthcoming Senate election here.

  • 1620
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    The future of Australia under Abbott

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BheiuQsCAAATqEw.jpg

  • 1621
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    Johnson is such a good hater he should be in the labor party! He never lets a chance go by where BArnett is concerned

  • 1622
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    If Rob Johnson’s comments are anything to go by

    Johnson’s hatred of Barnett has been in full public view since he was dumped from the ministry.

  • 1623
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    I want an ALP that does not select people like bullock. My dislike is entirely personal – the right must have people opposed to abortion (women) quite happy to inflict their religious views on others through legislation but still fundamentally decent with a respectable intellect.

    *Sigh* The ALP is a broad party. It has a right wing and left wing. We don’t like each other very much, but we put up with each other, because without each other we will never assemble 50% of the two-party vote in any Australian election (except maybe in the ACT). If you doubt the truth of what I am saying, ring up your hero Paul and ask him.

  • 1624
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    WWP

    Bullock is a good old DLP union man … Well according to his Wikipedia entry anyway.
    Just the sort of person who should not be rewarded for years of manipulating behind the scenes with a Senate career.

  • 1625
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    I wonder what the voter turn out will be like for the WA Senate re-election? There’s a little over one month until polling day, and if the surprise of my colleagues is any indication to the wider WA community, not many voters are aware of it.

  • 1626
    poroti
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    If Rob Johnson’s

    :lol: Rob Johnson is our Uncle Arfur. Sandgropians have not forgotten his effort as Emergency Services Minister during bushfires various. As for Troy Buswell. He seems the most competent of the lot but his chair sniffing grog monstery is one hell of a lump of lead in his saddle.

  • 1627
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    While Palmer might be another self-indulgent capitalist his disdain for the evil Murdoch Empire is laudable.

    IF (a big if) he follows through he will have more value in the Senate than the Labor media ninnies.

  • 1628
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    @Psephos/1623

    Coalition Party seem to be doing ok with the right…. Don’t say it’s impossible..

  • 1629
    poroti
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    Barnett dumping Uncle Arfur is the best decision he has made.

  • 1630
    dave
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    fredex
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    Mining companies are cutting investment in Oz dramatically because demand for their product has nose dived.

    Yes. Very Interesting. The expansion of production capacity the miners have been spending shedloads of cash on for years are now coming on stream and guess what happened ?

    RIO lifted profit over 80% as tonnage shipped increased (Ahem – increased demand!) and they ran their business better. The question is why didn’t they run the business better before – thats why they are paid the big bucks.

    So the push against ‘red tape/green tape’ is just an ideological push by the right wing fanatics such as the IPA and Tony and BCA and the media and all that mob.
    Part of their DNA.

    Interestingly they are very coy about stating what so called “Red or Green tape” they want removed. In Queensland it appears to be the OK to stuff up the Barrier Reef. Stuff up farming country and National Parks in other states.

    But its probably best simple described as “Do the damn well whatever they want”.

  • 1631
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    As for Troy Buswell. He seems the most competent of the lot but his chair sniffing grog monstery is one hell of a lump of lead in his saddle.

    With Porter gone to Canberra, who else have they got?

  • 1632
    imacca
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    If Rob Johnson’s comments are anything to go by, the WA Libs are about to axe Barnett and replace him with Buswell,

    Seriously? Chairman Sniff the Greens Bonker?? A better bet than Barnett??

    If true that says something very profoundly sad about West Australian politics. :(

  • 1633
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Did you see the Scottish Labour Leader Johann Lamont say that Scots are not programmed to make political decisions!!!!

    This presumably is why Labour supports Westminster control and, I am sure, it is not because they will lose the Westminster gold and ermine.

    http://munguinsrepublic.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/now-we-know-why-we-cant-be-independent.html

  • 1634
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    Bullock is a good old DLP union man … Well according to his Wikipedia entry anyway.

    The Wikipedia article does not mention the DLP. It also points out that Bullock is an Anglican, which I didn’t know.

  • 1635
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    Johnson’s hatred of Barnett has been in full public view since he was dumped from the ministry.

    Before that, he kept himself busy hating Buswell:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/buswell-accused-of-bullying-tactics/story-e6frg6pf-1111116653933

  • 1636
    poroti
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    The only answer to that is a great big “Ummm ahhh err” . Christian has big tickets on himself but what ambitious pollie doesn’t ? It will be interesting to watch how he goes in Canberra.

  • 1637
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

    but his chair sniffing grog monstery is one hell of a lump of lead in his saddle.

    A couple of weeks ago all the managers at work had to do a course on resolving staff conflict. Buswell’s chair sniffing, bra-snapping antics were used as the ‘it’s so bloody obviously sexual harrassment that you wonder how frickin stupid the person must be not to realise it’ example.

    Much to the amusement of course attendees. :)

  • 1638
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

    The Wikipedia article does not mention the DLP.

    Oops, yes, it does: it incorrectly says that Santamaria was founder of the DLP. It does not say that Bullock was ever a member.

  • 1639
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    So, William, do you credit the view that Barnett is about to depart?

  • 1640
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    Exactly, with paul Sheehans mate Porter gone the libs are bereft. Mind you Porter might be one whose ambition far exceeds other peoples opinion of him.
    I Think the only thing that is saving Barnett from the chop is that the libs have lost the axe.
    And it is three years to the next poll. The end of the year might see the pressure increase.

  • 1641
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    With Porter gone to Canberra, who else have they got?

    This is the $64,000 question….

  • 1642
    imacca
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Before that, he kept himself busy hating Buswell:

    Wow, i had forgotten Buswell was once leader of the W.A. Fibs.

  • 1643
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    You must have a different wiki than me. Says bullock was mentored by santamaria. Probably changed by one of his leftist enemies

  • 1644
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    William:

    Did any LIberal MPs have love for Buswell at that time back then? Esp after his revolting behaviour became public knowledge.

  • 1645
    fredex
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-27/capex-fall-points-to-looming-mining-investment-cliff/5288244

    Yesterday.

    Capex fall points to looming mining investment cliff

    Capex has fallen 5.7 per cent compared with the December quarter last year.

    The weakness was broad-based, with mining, manufacturing and 'other' all lower.
    much bigger-than-expected slump in investment plans for 2014-15.
    JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters says today's data suggest that falling business investment will be a significant drag on Australia's economic growth next financial year, and probably for much longer.

    The data reveals that firms in mining continue to scale back their spending intentions, albeit more quickly than we had anticipated

    Yep things are looking rosy, cut some tape and they’ll be absolutely frakkin’ wonderful.

  • 1646
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    You must have a different wiki than me. Says bullock was mentored by santamaria.

    That’s not the same as being a DLP member. Anyway that statement is unsourced, and therefore contrary to Wikipedia’s rules. So it’s about to be deleted, along with several other unsourced statements. And yes, I think it has been edited by someone hostile to Bullock. That happens a lot at Wikipedia, which is why all statements of fact must be sourced.

  • 1647
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    Psephos, if it’s true, then two things I think I know are wrong – that politicians are careful to base decisions like this on soundly conducted market research, and that Troy Buswell is electoral rat poison.

  • 1648
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    Tanya Plibersek on Abbott’s broken promises. The best two minutes of politics this week! #auspol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUx4cq6v3VI&feature=youtu.be

  • 1649
    confessions
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    With Porter gone to Canberra, who else have they got?

    Actually, even though she’s in the upper house, I quite like Robyn McSweeney. I’ve attended several meetings and events where she’s been present, and have always found her reasoned, competent and well briefed on her portfolios.

  • 1650
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, February 28, 2014 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    I was guessing that. Thats why I said according to his wiki profile . Must be popular bloke tho, linking him with Abbott and santamaria, he has people who don’t like him.

    He is the type who could get me to vote below the line so I could put him last. Did that once for reg withers. Didn’t make any difference may made me feel better at the time.

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