Nielsen drops a bombshell with the first poll showing state Labor leading in New South Wales since Morris Iemma was Premier. UPDATE: However, the bi-monthly Newspoll turns in a very different result of 58-42 in favour of the Coalition.
You heard correct the Sydney Morning Herald (I presume) has published a Nielsen poll of state voting intention in New South Wales which actually has Labor in front. This is, I am quite sure, the first poll to have Labor so placed in nearly six years. Labor’s lead of 51-49 comes from primary votes of 35% for Labor and 40% for the Coalition (UPDATE: And 12% for the Greens). These numbers courtesy of GhostWhoVotes; more no doubt to follow.
UPDATE: Despite all that, Barry O’Farrell maintains a healthy 50-30 lead over John Robertson as preferred premier, and has a positive net satisfaction rating (46% approve, 40% disapprove) while Robertson’s is negative (34% and 36%). The poll was conducted from Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1000.
UPDATE 2: Newspoll has different ideas, its bi-monthly reading for January-February producing a more normal looking result of 58-42 in favour of the Coalition. However, since this is derived from polling conducted over a two-month period, it can be surmised that this result fails to pick up backlash against the Coalition since the Independent Commission Against Corruption began investigating three Liberal MPs a fortnight ago, causing them to voluntarily withdraw from the party. The poll has the Coalition primary vote at 46% against 31% for Labor, with Barry O’Farrell holding a 49-19 lead over John Robertson as preferred premier.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.