tip off

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

After a fortnight in which Nielsen found the Coalition back in front and Newspoll found Labor further ahead than ever, the monthly result from ReachTEL has Labor maintaining the lead it recorded in the previous poll a month ago.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a ReachTEL poll, which I take to be its monthly poll for the Seven Network, has Labor’s lead unchanged on a month ago at 53-47, from primary votes of 40.3% for the Coalition, 39.2% for Labor and 10.5% for the Greens. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull to be favoured over Tony Abbott by 53.2% of respondents with only 27.7% opting for Abbott (and 19.1% for Joe Hockey), but this is down to a massive disparity between Coalition supporters, 58.6% of whom favour Abbott versus 27.6% for Turnbull and 13.8% for Hockey, and Labor supporters, of whom 76.5% favour Turnbull, 17.9% favour Hockey, and only 5.6% favour Abbott.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition up 51-49, reversing the result from last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens each down a point to 38% and 8%.

1525
  • 101
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    Abbott would know all about bullying?

    Russia is a bully, Abbott says
    March 4, 2014 - 10:00AM

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott has described Russia as a "bully" over its intervention in Ukraine.

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/russia-is-a-bully-abbott-says-20140304-3418i.html

  • 102
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    @Asher_Wolf: “The power went out and they were all there beating us with metal bars, sticks and rocks. We didn’t see them coming” https://t.co/Uv66bBjP6i

  • 103
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    Could anyone take John Kerry seriously after this effort ?

    Kerry’s next comments may have gone missed. ”You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext,” he said.

    .

    He went on to repeat the assertion on Meet the Press, keeping a straight face as he told host David Gregory: ”You just don’t invade another country on phony pretext in order to assert your interests.”

    http://www.salon.com/2014/03/02/kerry_on_russia_you_just_dont_invade_another_country_on_a_completely_trumped_up_pretext/

  • 104
    jeffemu
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    Well ummmmm Citizen,

    Is that arhhhh ummmmm a ‘baddies’ bully or well ummmm (lipsmack – raises hands in papal gesture) arrhhhhhh or is it a ‘goodies’ bully.

    That is the question and Puten must support the removal of the Carbon Tax or just get out of the way.

  • 105
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    poroti

    Could anyone take John Kerry seriously

    I think the answer is ‘NO’.

  • 106
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    I said on here once before that the way the Abbott Government is going they will be known as the Government for unemployment.

    Great idea lets send jobs offshore!

  • 107
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    I said on here once before that the way the Abbott Government is going they will be known as the Government for unemployment.

    Great idea lets send jobs offshore!

  • 108
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Really only needed to post it once!

  • 109
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    “Carbon Tax” – A synecdoche for a demented government that has slogans instead of policies.

  • 110
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Apparently we have an oversupply of electricity here, which is responsible for the delaying of plans to build another power station.

    Power bosses are grappling with the issue of over-capacity, which has been caused by falling demand on the back of rocketing prices, unrealised demand from major projects not coming on stream, more efficient appliances and rampant demand for rooftop solar panels.

    The State Government has estimated there is currently about 900MW of excess capacity in the South West grid, costing energy consumers hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/21806175/power-station-shelved-as-demand-drops/

    This is great news!

  • 111
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    @amworldtodaypm: G4S staffer describes frenzied violence at #Manus as local guards swarmed the compound w machetes and rocks http://t.co/dLQ0AZlfCr

  • 112
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Well, someone at Murdoch’s ‘Oz’ has a similar view to mine:

    DAVID CROWE THE AUSTRALIAN MARCH 04, 2014 12:00AM

    THIS is an enormous political risk for an unlikely policy gain.

    Tony Abbott is betting that Australians are ready to abandon their sentimental attachment to Qantas and let it operate like any other airline.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/political-risk-in-testing-national-attachment/story-e6frgd0x-1226844232155#

  • 113
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    pedant

    Victoria @ 68: Ticking away in the background is the broader question of whether Senator Brandeis failed to anticipate, when approving ASIO’s raid, that East Timor might take action in the ICJ. I suspect that there may have been a fairly bad stuffup on that front. It’s certainly a bad look when you lose 15-1 in the ICJ on at least one issue, with the only opinion in your favour being that of ad hoc Judge Callinan!

    Imagine the outcry if it was Dreyfus who had done this?

  • 114
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    CITIZEN – It’s not just their sentimental attachment to qantas, it’s their attachment to high-end manufacturing jobs. If we can’t do aircraft heavy maintenance in this country, what can we do? Are we going to become a nation of baristas who can’t even afford decent beans?

  • 115
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    citizen

    Mark Kenny’s opinion piece today has one thing the wrong way around in my opinion:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/move-appears-more-political-strategy-than-a-practical-fix-20140303-340s8.html#ixzz2uwUEiN6J

    The implications for Qantas of Monday's political manoeuvre are unknown.

    The implications for the government politically are more easily read. It now has a story to tell to voters and a line to bash Labor over the head with.

    It is more likely that Shorten intends to bash Abbott on the head over letting foreigners take over Qantas and send jobs offshore. Qantas, despite its current woes, is still seen by many as an Australian icon and putting it into foreign hands would probably be quite unpopular.

    There is an analogy with the NRL, AFL and Cricket Australia. Despite their various management and financial woes at different times, how many Australians would want the AFL etc to be controlled by foreigners, even though those foreigners might possibly bring better management skills and improved finances?

    Shorten will play the ‘patriotic’ card over Qantas and, in the public mind, is likely to win the argument.

    Indeed i could not figure out why Mark kenny does not see some point scoring by team Labor

  • 116
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    Is there a betting market on how long Tone will last? I would put my house (including the bank’s equity) on him not surviving to the next election.

  • 117
    pedant
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Senator Brandeis devouring a s*** sandwich at http://www.attorneygeneral.gov.au/Mediareleases/Pages/2014/First%20Quarter/4March2014-InternationalCourtofJusticedecisionTimorLestevAustralia.aspx

  • 118
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    pedant

    No doubt dainty triangular ones with the crust removed.

  • 119
    cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    I wish I could be that confident, Kevin17!

  • 120
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Abbott is counting on his RCommissions into insulation and unions getting him over the line next time around. Imagine how clever he must feel, using over 100 million dollars of taxpayers money to bash Labor over the head with. Sure beats having to raise donations from the private sector to advertise itself

  • 121
    sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    With alcoa Pt Henry, Ford, GM and Toyota closing, Victoria (and grid connected states) will not require a new power station for a long time to come. I don’t know if anybody has done the sums, but I suspect australia might meet most of it’s 5% by 2020 reduction target with them going – certainly victoria will. portland aluminum is still going – and victoria effectively built a power station to attract them to the state. if they closed (and they will one day because the parent company make cheaper and ‘greener’ aluminum at other sites – australia could remain competitive by developing base load renewables for them), victoria’s emissions would be cut by 8-10%.

  • 122
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    Mumble was tweeting about the betting odds for various Liberal leaders the other day.

  • 123
    Darren Laver
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    Has anyone seen the SBS program “Benidorm Bastards”. It’s a prank show from Holland using old actors. There are many funny moments in it.

    BK, I think it is Belgian, but yes, it is fantastic!

  • 124
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:02 am | Permalink

    sf:

    Ironically the soaring power prices imposed by the WA govt, more than the dreaded carbon ‘tax’ is causing a drop in demand for non-renewable sources of electricity. There’s been a surge in demand for solar panels here as a result.

  • 125
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    Abbott is heavily favoured to be Lib leader at the next election. He’s 6/1 on.

    Interestingly, there is a market for first leader to face a leadership challenge. Milne is the clear favourite.

    Milne 1.45
    Shorten 3.60
    Abbott 4.00

  • 126
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    ‘milne 1.45′

    SH-Y come on down.

    The ‘Greens’ end is near.

  • 127
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    Graham perrett
    Min Corman says "Qantas is asking the Gov to play favourites." If Alistair Furnival asked 4 Qantas would Mr Abbott play Favourites? #auspol

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    Ctar

    :lol: Heard that before. When Bob Brown was leading in Tasmania

  • 129
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    guy

    Other than Brant sometimes and Larissa Waters they’ve got nothing left.

  • 130
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    On twitter. Hilariousmenf

    Oz fr page headline "Abbott adds to pressure on Putin" Robb's Russia trip cancelled. Now if that doesn't get Vlad out of Crimea, nowt will.

  • 131
    Asha Leu
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Sportsbet has:

    Tony Abbott 1.07
    Malcolm Turnbull 6.50
    Joe Hockey 13.00
    Scott Morrison 15.00
    Julie Bishop 17.00
    Christopher Pyne 21.00
    Greg Hunt 26.00
    Peter Dutton 34.00
    Andrew Robb 41.00
    Tony Smith 51.00
    Sophie Mirabella 101.00
    Bronwyn Bishop 201.00

    IMO, Turnbull is extremely unlikely (unless the Lib’s are absolutely desperate), Morrison hasn’t got a chance after recent… events, the partyroom probably wouldn’t be able to stomach Julie Bishop as leader on account of her gender, but could possibly elect her as part of a rebranding strategy, and Pyne and Robb each have one supporter in caucus – themselves.

    I think Hockey is the most likely candidate. He has been performing (relatively) well in parliament and out, he’s pretty good at being both the “tough” statesman and warm and friendly, and can probably be relied on to do whatever the party’s backers want him to do.

  • 132
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Ctar

    Time will tell. I think the Greens a long way from done yet though.

    As for the bookies they are wrong. Liberals will be first with leadership spill they are the ones doing badly in the polls

  • 133
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    Asha leu

    Hockey lost on Graincorp and Qantas. I guess his big win to date was killing off the car industry

  • 134
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    “@andrewprobyn: Bill Shorten has appointed Alannah MacTiernan to the Labor executive: as the shadow parliamentary secretary for WA”

  • 135
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    guy

    Lee Rhiannon will punch though.

    Or maybe not …

  • 136
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    Qantas pleads for immediate help

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/qantas-decision-national-carrier-pleads-for-immediate-help-as-labor-greens-dig-in-on-sale-act-changes-20140304-341e4.html

  • 137
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    Opinion piece by jenna Price

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/we-are-all-matilda-betrayed-by-tony-abbott-20140303-340mj.html

  • 138
    Gary
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Headline in The Age – Schapelle parole threat as MERCEDES BENDS the rules. What a classic.

  • 139
    Asha Leu
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    @CTar1 126

    ‘milne 1.45′

    [SH-Y come on down.

    The ‘Greens’ end is near.

    I’m reasonably confident Hanson-Young’s leadership prospects exist only in her mind. It’ll be Bandt or maybe Ludlum, but probably not until after the next election. Bandt seems to be the heir apparent, but IMO is a bit too young and inexperienced (by political standards) to be taken seriously as leader yet.

  • 140
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    vic

    Qantas pleads for immediate help

    F4ck ‘em I think.

    They’ve got themselves here via Joyce and Lee Clifford.

    Jettison.

  • 141
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    I am still trying to figure out if this whole turn of events was cooked up by Joyce and members of the coalition. If it was all part of the plan, i fail to see the strategy

  • 142
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    Gary

    A good one…

  • 143
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    Asha

    Ludlum intelligent but lacks the killer instinct.

    A worthy individual.

  • 144
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    victoria

    We have seen Joyce strategy at work. Its why Qantas is in trouble.

  • 145
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    vic

    i fail to see the strategy

    I don’t think there is one other than whinging a lot.

  • 146
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: Transport Minister Warren Truss asked in partyroom what happens if Qantas repeal doesn’t get through Senate ‘there is no Plan B.’ @abcnews”

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    “@political_alert: Labor MP Stephen Jones was today elected to the Shadow Ministry as Assistant Shadow Minister for Health #auspol”

  • 148
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    Too true

  • 149
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Ah the full description so posting again.

    “@political_alert: Member for Perth, Alannah MacTiernan, has been announced as the new Shadow ParSec for WA, Regional Development and Infrastructure #auspol”

  • 150
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    Ludlum, one of the few pollies I can listen to for any length of time without getting earache.

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