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BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition’s strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

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  • 51
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    So much to feel sick about this morning.

    Victoria's environment commissioner has quit and hit out at the Napthine government's attitude on climate change, saying bureaucrats told her they were directed to refrain from even using the term.

    Professor Kate Auty, the Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability since 2008, said the government's lack of leadership on the issue was illustrated by the phrase ''climate variability'' often being used when climate change was meant.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/environment-commissioner-kate-auty-quits-drops-bucket-20140305-347ln.html#ixzz2v87SP9Nd

    Might as well allow spoil dumping on the reef. Within a generation it won’t matter anyway.

    The Great Barrier Reef will be irreversibly damaged by climate change in just 16 years, according to leading reef researcher Ove Hoegh-Guldberg.

    The reef has lost about half its coral coverage since the mid-1980s, with increased carbon dioxide concentrations contributing about 10 per cent alongside damage from other sources such as invasive species and farm nutrient run-off, Professor Hoegh-Guldberg, a professor of marine science at the University of Queensland, said.

    Climate change, though, is fast taking over as the main threat to the world's reefs as warmer waters increase the frequency of coral bleaching, while acidifying oceans weaken or erode coral structures.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/great-barrier-reef-faced-with-irreversible-damage-20140305-347ha.html#ixzz2v88sC2Pg

  • 52
    dave
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    I express my opinion my way and you clearly do it you’re way.

    Woman bashers deserve everything they get back.

    Everything.

  • 53
    dave
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Barring an extraordinary intervention by the Abbott government to block a move Virgin has already taken...

    Would be an interesting move though.

  • 54
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    @oliverlaughland: Speech by @SenatorLudlam went all around the world overnight. Including over 50,000 views in the US: http://t.co/rvqXp0IGZk Fascinating.

  • 55
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    The Truss/Abbott (but maybe not Hockey?) legislation would give Qantas the same status as Vegemite and Holden.

    These are ‘cultural icons’ that were originally Australian owned but passed into the hands of foreign corporations. Look what happened to Holden under this Government.

  • 56
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    @GrogsGamut: ALP in successful cut nose to spite face operation: Labor unlikely to back Greens in WA’s senate re-election http://t.co/dMXZ26JPYX

  • 57
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    citizen

    Palmer was doing what Palmer likes best – promoting himself.

    I agree. But how does Palmer get to vote on repealing the carbon tax & MRT or doesn’t he own all those mines?

  • 58
    dave
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    citizen

    Since when was Holden ever Australian owned?

    Vegemite came about due to a shortage of the equivalent import product from the UK after WW1. Between the wars vegemite was marginally popular but they really hit the jackpot when it was included in WW2 Army ration packs.

  • 59
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    @GrogsGamut: ALP in successful cut nose to spite face operation: Labor unlikely to back Greens in WA’s senate re-election http://t.co/dMXZ26JPYX

    Well, Ludlam’s speech yesterday was all about how he reckoned the Greens could take care of themselves, how their vote was increasing with every abbott mismanagement.

    Time to put the cards on the table.

    Labor is NOT in coalition with the Greens. The Greens would agree with that, and support it, as much as anyone.

    Let the chips fall where they may. Time to put up or shut up.

  • 60
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    BB

    Yeah just let Abbott or allies gain as many votes for quotas as possible. Instead of maximising the chances to stop Abbott.

  • 61
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    I was distressed to have a young Labor staffer ask me to remove ‘climate change’ from a motion and replace it with ‘climate variability’ on the grounds that the latter was less contentious!

    We can’t afford to tip toe around these issues.

  • 62
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    Peter Martin has his say on Hockey

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/joe-hockey-must-be-careful-not-to-push-his-luck-20140305-347oi.html

  • 63
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Are some in the Coalition getting nervous and asking Murdoch to pass on the message?

    Abbott fears the electorate will fight back

    SOME in the Coalition are dubbing the commission of audit’s 900-page report “Fightback Mark II”, after the radical economic policy document that John Hewson unsuccessfully took to the 1993 election.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/abbott-fears-the-electorate-will-fight-back/story-e6frg9qo-1226846361058#

  • 64
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    I’m shocked. I thought only Coalition were wimps in this matter. Sometimes Labor is too weak for its own good.

  • 65
    daretotread
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    Dave

    I think that we should all refrain from lynch mob behaviour when it comes to crimes etc. Now in the case of the woman murdered, it looks bad for the father BUT as a veteran watcher of the Bill, New tricks, Midsomer Murders and Poirot, there are other possibilities such as the father taking the fall for a beloved son etc. Unlikely sure but unless we are on the Jury, best hold our tongues.

  • 66
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    And, in the feeling sick department –

    CATTLE will again graze the Alpine National Park with the Commonwealth to grant the Victorian Government's request for three-year scientific trial.

    ...Up to 300 cattle may be introduced in the second and third years, subject to further approval, to investigate grazing’s impact on bushfire fuel management in Victoria’s High Country.

    We’ve had over 150 years of cattle grazing in the High Plains, and multiple studies into their effects. But, of course (like the studies on windfarms) they didn’t find what the Libs wanted them to find, so we have to do more tests until they get the result they want…

    Mr Hunt said strict measures to contain the cattle would be imposed, including temporary electric fencing and stock will be supervised by “experienced cattlemen at all times”.

    Chortle.

    The trial aims to compare the effectiveness and impacts of livestock grazing regimes and planned burning practices for bushfire fuel management.

    Given the trial is taking place on an old cattle station, grazing there will prove nothing about the effect of grazing on the High Plains….which, of course, will mean they’ll have to extend the trial…

    Victoria announced its plans to resubmit its grazing application in November and was immediate ridiculed by scientists and environmentalists.

    It argued, along with the Mountain Cattlemen, that strategic grazing and “experience and expertise gathered over 170 years” should be included in land management and bushfire reduction.

    Victorian National Parks Association described it as a “a scientific trial without any scientists” while Royal Society of Victoria president Dr Bill Birch said it showed “little evidence of sound scientific structure”.

    http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/government-gives-nod-to-cattle-return-to-alpine-national-park/story-fnkf0qeh-1226846550609

  • 67
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    BB – Surely, if Qantas ceases to become an australian airline and ship jobs offshore, the first thing that the govt should do is revoke its special access to international routes.
    But qantas obviously wants to have its cake and eat it.
    Surely, it would be much better for the govt to offer those valuable entitlements to organisations prepared to create jobs in Australia

  • 68
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    Time for Qantas to throw open their books!

    Let’s stop playing politics!

    Put up or shut up!

  • 69
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    Oh, and there’s a poll attached to that cattle grazing article…(hint…)

  • 70
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    “@servantofchaos: Perspective is everything RT @PaulBongiorno: QANTAS factoid: Carbon tax, $106 m last year. Fuel Bill, $4.5 BILLION”

  • 71
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    BB

    Yeah just let Abbott or allies gain as many votes for quotas as possible. Instead of maximising the chances to stop Abbott.

    Ludlum’s much-lauded speech di not mention Labor at all.

    It appears he believes the Greens can stop Abbott all by themselves.

    I say let’s try the experiment. The Greens sure seem to want to.

    The Greens are a bit like Qantas. As K-1-7 pointed out, they want their cake and want to eat it too.

  • 72
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Dee

    Reporting today indicates that. A senate inquiry re Qantas is likely to take place as early as next week

  • 73
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    Does this mean the senate will ask the Irish Nong about his chats with Joe???

  • 74
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    K17

    Yes

  • 75
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    BB

    There are plenty of Labor speeches that do not mention the Greens at all.

    Time for Labor to realise the less Liberal and allied Snators voted in the better. Its to Labors advantage and increases chances of One Term Tony.

    More important than Labor or Green getting the seat. Its as long as one gets it.

  • 76
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    BB = If I was a labor voter in WA I would feel insulted that my party was directing my preferences other than to the closest ideological partner of labor (and the one most likely to stop abolition of the carbon tax). In fact, I would have to vote Green and then labor.
    Interesting though: with far fewer candidates (presumably) a lot more people would be inclined to vote below the line.

  • 77
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Two-monthly Newspoll result for Victoria :

    The latest Newspoll shows Victorian Labor retaining a six-point lead (53 per cent to 47 per cent), but its leader, Daniel Andrews, is yet to capture the imagination of voters as the November 29 election looms.

    Labor's primary vote of 39 per cent is its highest in 17 months, with the Liberals' 35 per cent the lowest since 2012 and the Nationals languishing on just 3 per cent.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/voters-desert-coalition-in-droves-as-jobs-disappear/story-e6frgczx-1226846401850# via Google

  • 78
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    @PaulBongiorno Another factoid: $52 Million paid to 4 #qantas executives pic.twitter.com/YKYBMbrja0

    https://mobile.twitter.com/geeksrulz/status/441343085637693440/photo/1

  • 79
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    Qantas obvoiusly thought that if they blamed the carbon tax the govt would say they couldn’t do anything and use that to wedge labor.
    However, they didn’t realise that his is a supremely nasty govt that expects a quid pro quo for help. So qantas had to back-pedal.

  • 80
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    BB

    There are plenty of Labor speeches that do not mention the Greens at all.

    And they are backing this up with action.

    The Greens have caused a lot of trouble for Labor, and for themselves. Their intransigence smacks of the fanatical.

    They have to learn that they are not the party of government, and probably never will be.

    So, let’s see them stand on their own two feet, as they seem so eager to do anyway.

  • 81
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    Victoria

    Great!

    If Qantas want assistance then they must make the case.

    I’m betting on a few surprises!

  • 82
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    BB

    The point of the article is in this case its in Labor’s interest to not have a Liberal or ally win.

    Rant all you like about the Greens. If you get your way Abbott will be in government for longer. That will be ok you will have told those Greens

  • 83
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Victoria

    FMD!

    @PaulBongiorno Another factoid: $52 Million paid to 4 #qantas executives pic.twitter.com/YKYBMbrja0

  • 84
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    dave

    He is still an lying oaf though.

    Absolutely full of it.

    Politicians are another breed.

  • 85
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    However, they didn’t realise that his is a supremely nasty govt that expects a quid pro quo for help. So qantas had to back-pedal.

    This is government by grudge and vendetta.

    They won’t help Qantas because Qantas had their chance to play ball and didn’t.

    The government knows the repeal bill before the house will fail.

    They won’t guarantee Qantas’ debts.

    Therefore they’re not intending to do anything to help Qantas, in practical terms. They’re not even demanding that a demonstrably incompetent management walks.

    It’s all for show, as things usually are with this mob of PR lurk merchants and spivs.

    The only thing that makes sense is that they want to reduce the size of union representation in industry so that – some day, long down the track – a bloodied and beaten work force will finally take the hint and drop unionism altogether.

    It’s what doctors call “heroic” surgery.

    Our nation is being run by sociopathic ideologues who finally believe they have a chance to put their IPA-inspired agenda into effect.

    We all know what happened to Howard when he tried that.

    But a lot of damage can be done before they realize the Australian punter isn’t interested in us becoming a Tea Party outpost.

  • 86
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Dee

    I watched the Senate inquiry when Qantas was grounded. Alan joyce used many weasel words. No doubt he will do the same thing again

  • 87
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    BB

    A lot of damage is already being done

  • 88
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    I may have missed it but I didn’t see any reference here to Albo on Lateline last night.

    Jones was his obnoxious self but Albo was determined to not let him push his own views.

    The result was a couple of really powerful and extende “talkovers/shouts” as Jones tried to assert himself. Albo gave no quarter and Jones looked like a fool.

    Many refutations by Albo of assertions and false premises by Jones. If only all the 2010-2013 ministers had been as confident and assertive as Albo was. Foreman material!

    Well worth a look.

  • 89
    mari
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quFA3CrcELI Think we have had this before on PB but one of my followers has sent to me He Still sounds the same :devil:

  • 90
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Psyclaw

    Here is Albo on LL last night for those who missed it

    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s3957683.htm

  • 91
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    Victoria

    If I was a conspiracy theorist, moi may draw the conclusion Joyce was installed for ulterior motives. :grin:

    The story is in the books Vic!

  • 92
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    ALP Senate preferences:

    The ALP have twice now elected Family First Senators due to dicking around with their preferences.

    I’ve long and loud argued that we need to abolish group ticket preferencing in the Senate, not just to fix our Senate ballot paper explosion problem but to save the majors from themselves.

    Sadly there seems to be no momentum for fixing this, and we’ll end up with some barrier to standing PLUS an indefensible vote roulette of party-chosen preferencing.

    Anyway.

    The ALP in WA may think that making what might be a “symbolic” “the Greens have cooties” stand is “clever” politics, but if (as they have done before) this results in a conservative wackaloon being elected over someone a future ALP government could negotiate with … god damn the ALP continue to be idiots.

  • 93
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    Very pleased labor doesn’t think there is no difference between labor and the greens. If the greens had really wanted a carbon price they’d have supported Rudds one but they were more interested in votes.

    I have trouble deciding whether to put the greens ahead of the nationals or between the nationals and libs when I direct my own preferences. The WA nats aren’t too bad.

    Bullock will get my very last preference.

  • 94
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    Bludgers will remember Abbott’s line when he was blocking the Malaysia amendments to the Migration Act. He used it extensively, even with a straight face.

    WTTE “It is the PM’s job to get the Parliament to pass her legislation, and the Parliament has decided not to pass it”

    This was of course double talk for “my mob are blocking you in the Senate”, but it was a good line never challenged as to the underlying basics, by the meeja.

    It’s time for Labor to put this line up re Qantas. Should be all over tonight’s news, spoken with gravitas.

  • 95
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Thanks Vic.

    I have trouble with links when on tablet.

  • 96
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    WeWantPaul

    A national will vote with Abbott and against Labor. Vote for a National if that is what you want.

  • 97
    dave
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Ahh… The problems that arise when you start to sell citizenship and then halt such a scheme…

    (mind you Australian still has such a scheme of sorts anyway…)

    When Canadian authorities scrapped their 'investor visa' scheme a month ago, we warned that the nation was removing a critical pillar of support for its real-estate bubble market.

    However, with an estimated 45,000 Chinese millionaires still in the queue, the wealthy hoping to get their cash out of China are not happy.

    As The South China Morning Post reports, a group of wealthy mainlanders has criticized the Canadian government for scrapping its investor visa scheme and are threatening legal action if the decision is not overturned - arguing "we had set aside a lot of money to meet the investment requirements and over the years passed up on many opportunities.

    .....A refund of our application fees will not make up for all the preparation put in."

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/chinese-1-threaten-lawsuit-against-canada-shutting-visa-cash-scheme

  • 98
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Our nation is being run by sociopathic ideologues

    It’s the younger ones that piss me of most. Arrogant opinionated little prats.

  • 99
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Psychlaw

    Perhaps Mari could tweet Rabbott’s words to Albo.

  • 100
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    “@senatormilne: Hockey hiding Govt budget cuts until after Tas,SA and WA elections. Refusing to release audit report is @TonyAbbottMHR cowardice. #auspol”

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