tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition’s strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

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  • 101
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Am off before the day disappears!

  • 102
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    I may have missed it but I didn’t see any reference here to Albo on Lateline last night.

    Albo humiliated the smarmy bastard, Jones.

  • 103
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    vic

    @PaulBongiorno Another factoid: $52 Million paid to 4 #qantas executives pic.twitter.com/YKYBMbrja0

    Why aren’t they named? I am sick to death of all this stuff.

    What are their qualifications to earn that sort of money?

    Bloody disgraceful no wonder they are needing to ask for money.

    Pull it out of their own pockets would be my advice to save some of those who are losing their jobs.

  • 104
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Albo gave no quarter and Jones looked like a fool.

    Stuff happens.

    Jones a Turkey.

  • 105
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    psyclaw

    No worries

    I liked Albo’s line that Tony jones is not the govt spokesman. Doubt Jones would have liked that slapdown

  • 106
    mari
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Mal F ‏@Edgemonsta 5m
    @razhorsed @randlight @tonyowright Fast forward 20 years: Tassie child at museum asks parent “what’s that”. Answer, that is a tree!

    Think this tweet is so accurate

  • 107
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Jones resorted in the end to accusing Albo of having a conflict of interest on Qantas… because he’s a member of the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge club!

    Someone has clearly been in Tony Jones’ ear, with ALL the talking points, right down to this insulting one.

  • 108
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    MH

    Our nation is being run by sociopathic ideologues

    It’s the younger ones that piss me of most. Arrogant opinionated little prats.

    Could not agree more!

  • 109
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    @GuardianAus: Tasmania: a death warrant against pristine forests Abbott has never seen | Bob Brown http://t.co/TTDIaW1Zck

  • 110
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/canberra-refuses-to-release-report-on-abc-funding-20140305-347l7.html

    The Abbott government has refused to release a report that supported more funding for the ABC, insisting it would breach the cabinet confidentiality of the Howard government.

    In stark contrast to its attitude to documents from the former Rudd government, the manager of government business in the Senate, Senator Mitch Fifield, refused to make the report available, saying it disclosed the cabinet deliberations of the Howard government.

    ''Successive governments and the Parliament have long recognised the public interest in maintaining the confidentiality of such deliberations,'' Senator Fifield has said in a letter to the clerk of the Senate.

    Just as interesting is this, which may be mentioned here somewhere but just in case it isn’t …:

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2014/03/06/08/16/hockey-spoke-to-joyce-about-carbon-tax

    Treasurer Joe Hockey has revealed he talked to Qantas chief Alan Joyce about the airline's apparent change of mind on the impact the carbon tax was having on the company's bottom line....
    Mr Hockey on Thursday revealed he had spoken to Mr Joyce and that the pair and talked about the company's initial statement.

    These guys have seriously compromised themselves.

  • 111
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    BB

    Jones resorted in the end to accusing Albo of having a conflict of interest on Qantas… because he’s a member of the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge club!

    Albo should have asked Jones was a member of the Chairman’s Lounge Club in return. I would bet money he is!

  • 112
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    BB

    Tony jones really showed himself to be the full on wanker he is. He ended his embarrassment by thanking Albo for an interesting interview

  • 113
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    Given the quote above re the Qantas Carbon Tax what on earth are the Libs on about.

  • 114
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    vic

    Albo is street smart Jones isn’t!

  • 115
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    @SenatorLudlam: seem to have hit a bit of a nerve with the speech the other night. thx to everyone who liked + shared it – it’s v encouraging :) #wavotes

  • 116
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    These guys have seriously compromised themselves.

    Just as a matter of interest why?

    It also helps if you heard the entire interview rather than just a selected part of the interview. Hockey made it very clear no pressure was placed on QANTAS and it was a matter for QANTAS how they delt with the issue.

  • 117
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    The Greens don’t always preference Labor, and (in some cases) tout that as a virtue.

    Yet when it’s suggested Labor won’t preference them (and note, all that’s happening is that Labor is going to preference a couple of minors ahead of the Greens, something – again – the Greens quite often do themselves when it comes to Labor) then there’s an outcry.

    The Greens have not preferenced Labor in Indi in the last three Federal elections, for example — which I found a bit personally offensive (the implication being that there was no difference between me and Sophie Mirabella…)

  • 118
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    A national will vote with Abbott and against Labor. Vote for a National if that is what you want.

    Maybe but the greens were much more effective than the nats in their opposition with Abbott to effective action on climate change. So on balance the nats have been better friends to the environment than the greens over the last 8 years. They should be rewarded for that.

  • 119
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    Pope Francis hints at rethink on gay civil unions

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/pope-francis-hints-at-catholic-church-rethink-on-gay-civil-unions-20140306-hvgca.html

  • 120
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    jackol

    if (as they have done before) this results in a conservative wackaloon being elected over someone a future ALP government could negotiate with … god damn the ALP continue to be idiots.

    Agree

  • 121
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    fredex

    In stark contrast to its attitude to documents from the former Rudd government, the manager of government business in the Senate, Senator Mitch Fifield, refused to make the report available, saying it disclosed the cabinet deliberations of the Howard government.

    What really gets my goat is that the Libs are such two-faced, shifty liars, and they brazen it out with the full support of all the noddies in parliament.

  • 122
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    The Greens make a virtue of not directing preferences as much as possible.

    Labor does direct preferences. The article does not say what is in Green interests. It says whats in Labor’s interest. There is a difference.

  • 123
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Shorten giving a good speech in the HOR

  • 124
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    WWP

    I disagree. You would too if you really thought about it.

  • 125
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    …and, right on cue, the Greens candidate who has NEVER preferenced Labor (but has preferenced other candidates…) tells me on twitter that Labor should be preferencing the Greens!

  • 126
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    Hockey made it very clear no pressure was placed on QANTAS

    David you are not seriously taking that on face value are you?
    Really? You believe Joe? Really?

    Facts
    1. Joe and mates -”carbon is an issue with everything”
    2. QANTAS -” carbon is not an issue”
    3. Joe and mates – ‘carbon is an issue’
    4 Conversation between Joe and the bloke who wants billions of dollars from him.
    5. QANTAS – “oops -carbon is an issue – like Joe said” [ABC -the QANTAS statement 'could have been written by the government']
    6 Joe – ‘no pressure’
    Yep sure Joe some might believe you.

  • 127
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    The Greens make a virtue of not directing preferences as much as possible.

    Rofl

  • 128
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Hockey made it very clear no pressure was placed on QANTAS

    David you are not seriously taking that on face value are you?
    Really?

    Facts
    1. Joe and mates -”carbon is an issue with everything”
    2. QANTAS -” carbon is not an issue”
    3. Joe and mates – ‘carbon is an issue’
    4 Conversation between Joe and the bloke who wants billions of dollars from him.
    5. QANTAS – “oops -carbon is an issue – like Joe said” [ABC -the QANTAS statement 'could have been written by the government']
    6 Joe – ‘no pressure’
    Yep sure Joe some might believe you.

  • 129
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    MTBW

    Albo did have the last say re Qantas Lounge …… He said all MP’s get this lurk, and with Virgin too.

    And his KO was “and I’ve seen many media people in the Lounge”.

  • 130
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Dee

    Re “it’s the PM’s job to get the Parliament to pass legislation………” argument.

    I’ve emailed Albo, and have spoken to his office about it. They promise he’ll get the info today!!!! ?

    Here’s hopin.

  • 131
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    My point is Labor should not care what the Greens say. Labor should care how a Senator will vote when elected. That is the ball game in this Senate election.

  • 132
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    Shorten is absolutely on fire

  • 133
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    psyclaw

    Yep and he smiled while he said it – Tony was not impressed.

  • 134
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    @James_Jeffrey: @lenoretaylor @GrogsGamut @sspencer_63 @Tim_Beshara Truss is clearly Uncle Bulgaria. http://t.co/RxTIgc3oLG

  • 135
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    “@Rob_Stott: WAIT. Wait wait wait wait wait. What? Did Shorten just say ‘Cheese eating surrender monkeys’.”

  • 136
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    vic

    Re Pope Francis – really like him and his style – no bullshit – and he has hidden Pell in the Treasury which is a good thing.

  • 137
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    Oh, look (cough)…in the 2013 WA Senate election, the Greens preferenced Wikileaks, the Secular party, the Animal Justice party, the Help End Marijuana party, the Stable population party, the Australian Sports party, the Australian Democrats, the Australian Independents, and the Sex party before Labor….

    http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateStateGroupVotingTickets-17496-WA.htm

    Whereas Labor preferenced Greens second.

    This time around, however, the Greens seem to think they should get what they didn’t give Labor last time.

  • 138
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Shorten said a lot in his speech. It was a beauty

  • 139
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    What serves Labor interests best? Preferencing Family First before the Greens worked a treat for Rudd’s Senate

  • 140
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Guytaur

    Problem is the Green’s farked up the CPRS by voting with the Coalition. The Greens are unpredictable voters, and prisoners of unattainable “perfection” when “good” would suffice.

    Result was:

    1) We got Abbott

    2) If he has his way now he’s PM, we’ll end up with fark all.

    Surely the CPRS the Greens bombed would’ve been better than fark all.

  • 141
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Jones is hopeless.

    I enjoyed Sarah Ferguson V Hockey last night though.

    Government's Plan B is its Plan A says Joe Hockey

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s3957613.htm

  • 142
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    Mtbw

    Pope francis gave a speech last week. It was very good.

    I will see if i can find it. It was a refreshing change. Pope francis realises in order for the church to continue it needs to change dramatically. Although I do remain skeptical

  • 143
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Psyclaw

    Not true. As proved by fact Family First was there.

  • 144
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    why are you beating up Labor on this? Why aren’t you demanding the Greens preference Labor?

    On past form, it’s far more likely that Labor will preference the Greens than the Greens will preference Labor.

  • 145
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Julian Assange was probably rooting for Ecuador

    http://espnfc.com/en/report/387777/report.html?soccernet=true&cc=3436

  • 146
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    Asking whats in Labor’s interest is beating up Labor. Yeah right.

  • 147
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    vic

    I am not at all sceptical I think he is a very decent honorable man with a human touch.

  • 148
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    24 now showing Shorten

  • 149
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    are you saying it’s not in Labor’s best interests for the Greens to preference them?

  • 150
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    Zoomster – in my opinion it’s perfectly legitimate for the ALP to preference other parties ahead of the Greens provided that the candidates for those other minor parties are people that the ALP can sensibly work with in a future ALP government.

    I don’t consider Steve Fielding or Bob Day, as two obvious cases, to fall into this category.

    If I thought the ALP genuinely considered the qualities of the candidates in the order they gave them preferences that would be one thing. They clearly don’t. This game consists of the ALP making a positional statement and (depending on who they preference ahead of the Greens) a potentially risky gamble on which of the minors will snowball and which won’t – something no one can sensibly predict given our broken system.

    If the ALP want to avoid helping elect another Steve Fielding or Bob Day they need to stop elevating such candidates above Greens or comparatively sensible candidates such as X’s running mates (not saying X is sensible, but another X or equivalent would be preferable to another FF, and ALP preferencing should reflect that IMO).

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