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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 13, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

After a period of erratic poll results from various outfits, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate appears to be recovering its equilibrium.

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This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2558 comments

2,558 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

  1. sprocket_

    chris uhlmann is starting to make his mark on ABC AM

    first question to Will Hodgman this morning: “How will you get Tasmania back to work?”

    first question to Lara Giddings “Why has your government been such a failure?”

  2. zoomster

    Consumer confidence has collapsed, sliding to its lowest point since the Gillard prime ministership as Labor supporters despair about jobs, the economy and business profitability.

    The latest result, a consumer sentiment index number of 99.5 means pessimists outweigh optimists by 0.5 percentage points, the first time that has happened since May 2013. It’s a spectacular dive from the November post-election high of 110.3 where optimists outweighed pessimists by 10.3 percentage points..

    As is often the case, we can’t work out from this whether those surveyed were Labor supporters at the last election or have become Labor supporters BECAUSE of their pessimism about the economy..

    ”Asked which news items they recalled, over two thirds of consumers nominated news on ‘economic conditions’ with most viewing the news as negative,” he said.

    ”Within this broad topic, 37 per cent recalled news specifically about ‘business profitability’ – the highest level of recall since the global financial crisis in 2008 and prior to that since the sharemarket crash in 1987.

    ”Consumers also had a very high recall rate for employment-related news with 45 per cent reporting items on this topic, the highest reading since we began running these questions in 1976.”

    I feel like doing one of those riffs climate change deniers do when confronted with “but this is the hottest day recorded since…”

    Westpac’s separate unemployment expectations index has climbed 15 per cent since the September election.

    ”The index is at an extreme high only eclipsed by readings during 2008-09 and the recessions in the early 1990s and early 1980s,” Mr Hassan said. ”Higher readings indicate more consumers expect unemployment to rise.

    Eek.

    The pessimism isn’t yet evident in sales. The consumers who agreed that now was ”a good time to buy a major household item” outnumbered those who did not by 35 percentage points.

    Absolutely. Mum hasn’t lost her job yet, so we’d better grab what we need whilst we still have the money coming in.

    The results add to pressure on the Treasurer to construct a budget that kindles rather than dampens confidence.

    Hate to rain on your parade here, but that’s not happening…

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2147385/economy-consumer-confidence-nosedives/?cs=7

  3. zoomster

    Apparently when you cut and past an item over from the old thread, the indentations vanish!

  4. AussieAchmed

    I wonder how many more of these “rogue” polls before the Liberal trolls accept Abbott and his Govt are on the nose

  5. mikehilliard

    March in March – apparently Billy Bragg performing & speaking in Sydney.

  6. CTar1

    William – As you suggest a few polls taken fairly close together have put Bludgertrack right back in, what I think, is very close to the mark.

    I seem to recall that after the election you said that it would take some months to get back on track.

  7. guytaur

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott – ‘I don’t want to see people parked on the disability support pension.’”

    Attacking the disabled again. Must be the distraction from Henry stating revenue is the major problem, not spending.

  8. guytaur

    @political_alert: Assistant Minister for Infrastructure Jamie Briggs will hold a press conference here at Parliament from 10:30am #auspol

  9. zoidlord

    @guytaur/8

    God he is a twat.

  10. guytaur

    @Tara_Moss: ‘Please, please, please don’t kill me, don’t kill me, don’t kill me.’ Audio obtained by my sources on Manus Island: http://t.co/7Qv3jjEK07

  11. zoomster

    Abbott announcing on SA radio that he wears RM Williams boots and drinks Coopers beer.

    I mean, that’s it — he’s obviously a local.

  12. guytaur

    “@LaraGiddings: Liberals have a history of minority Govt’s. Abbott is in one now with Nats. Today we hear Libs are talking to PUP about a coalition in Tas.”

  13. rossmcg

    After 100 or so days there is a bit of rain about in Perth this morning. Just had a very brief shower in the inner southern suburbs.,prediction is for 1mm so it will barely settle the dust. Still sounds nice on the roof .

  14. Labour of Love

    Zoomster/12

    Yes he is the “best freind” South Australians” could have!

  15. guytaur

    zoomster

    twitter response: Bottled Shandy?

  16. poroti

    Zoomster

    Next we’ll see him drinking Coppers from his RM Williams .

  17. poroti

    Grrr “Coopers”

  18. zoidlord

    If Abbott is wearing RM Williams boots, then he’s not a local, those shoes are like nearly $300 bucks if not more.

  19. Labour of Love

    Does he drive a Holden? I wonder, no I don’t.

  20. guytaur

    LOL

    We know his favourite car is BMW he spent taxpayers dollars on some.

  21. bemused

    Abbott will go to Tasmania and it will be Blundstones and Cascade.

    What an embarrassing wanker.

    What idiots people are not to see through his nonsense. 😡

  22. zoidlord

    @bemused/22

    As they say, there is an idiot, born every minute.

  23. MTBW

    I love Ken Henry! There is a man of principle not many of them left!

  24. guytaur

    @latikambourke: From the focus groups? RT @michaelpachi: @TonyAbbottMHR has told @1395FIVEaa that @billshortenmp is “weak & sneaky”…re mining tax

  25. poroti

    zoidlord

    Some even become the PM.

  26. Labour of Love

    I believe the story goes something like this.
    The Coopers have always been part of the Adelaide establishment. When womens sufferage was being debated way way back in SA parliament a “Cooper” argued most venemently against it. As it turned out I think it was his grand daughter was the first woment voted into SA parliament – on a gerrymander of couse.
    The legislative council in those days was also restricted to landowners being able to vote. All very easy if you a Cooper.

  27. BH

    [http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-12/intellectually-disabledaboriginal-people-stuck-in-legal-limbo/5316892]

    shellbell It is worse than appalling for the 21st century. It was upsetting to watch the report on 7.30 last night and then worse to see Warren Mundine weazel away on Lateline.

    He should be on the phone belting Abbott and the NT Govt. around the head on this. I’m sorry it was happening under Labor as well.

  28. MTBW

    BH

    Mundine sold out!

  29. rossmcg

    Bemused.

    I think blundstones are mostly made in China these days. I blame the greens

  30. MTBW

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/barangaroo-fire-triggers-sydney-cbd-chaos-20140312-34mj6.html

    Barangaroo fire reached 1100 degrees may set construction at the site back several month/

    Poor James Packer!

  31. BH

    [If Abbott is wearing RM Williams boots, then he’s not a local, those shoes are like nearly $300 bucks if not more.]

    Zoidlord Expensive but they just about last a flippin’ lifetime or used to. Probably made in China now. It seems to be trendy for non farmer pollies to wear them.

  32. guytaur

    “@justinbarbour: RT @joshgordo: State cabinet reshuffle brought forward. Likely to be announced 3pm today. #springst”

    Hiding in shadow of two State elections?

  33. Peter of Marino

    bemused @ 22

    [Abbott will go to Tasmania and it will be Blundstones and Cascade.

    What an embarrassing wanker.

    What idiots people are not to see through his nonsense.

    + :mad:]

    And he will go to Victoria and …. Oh , never mind 😀

  34. BH

    MTBW Mundine mumbles a lot nowdays. Probably worried about the reaction of his new connections.

  35. Psephos

    There was a Liberal SA MLC called Jessie Cooper in the old unreformed Legislative Council. I don’t think she went as far back as women’s franchise, however.

  36. shellbell

    BH

    The lawyer mentioned, Mark O’Reilly, and his wife, were at law school with me.

    They have been working in Alice for years and had identical triplets which would keep one busy.

  37. guytaur

    “@lenoretaylor: Bernie Fraser should be interesting at the NPC today http://t.co/jLAEiK6sGV via @guardian”

    Jamie Briggs presser now.

  38. Labour of Love

    I think it was his grand daughter was the first woment voted into SA parliament – on a gerrymander of couse.

    Jessie Cooper and Joyce Steele were the first women elected to South Australia’s parliament, Jessie Cooper winning a Legislative Council seat and Joyce Steele a seat in the Legislative Assembly at the elections on 7 March 1959.

    South Australian women had been the first in Australia to win the right to vote and to stand for election, but it took 64 years before the first women entered the parliament.

  39. shellbell

    [Bernie Fraser should be interesting at the NPC today]

    Probably because of what he says rather than the way he says it.

  40. Fran Barlow

    Socrates (from last thread)

    [At present we struggle because governments imagine user pays can fix everything. It can’t. Some necessary works are not viable as toll roads, and public transport almost never pays for itself. We need to tax more to pay for essential services too.]

    Oh I agree.

    Major roads, assuming there’s a case for them in each proposed instance, really ought to be publicly funded, because one of the things governments can generally do better than the private sector is raising cheap funds.

    That said, I believe major connecting roads ought to be user pays based on vehicle tare, the driver profile, the vehicle type, traffic contention and the existence or absence of parallel public transport corridors. In some cases, shuttle bus services could run the length of the major roads during the peak and shoulder, subsidised by the vehicles paying the tolls. Parallel rail corridors could also benefit with an increase in services.

  41. Psephos

    [What are we coming to as a society?]

    A split?

  42. BH

    I love Andrew Leigh’s ability to counteract smartarske talking heads like 2CCs Mark Parton. Leigh was to speak on the sacking of Martin Parkison and it started with

    [MARK PARTON: I don’t think Andrew Leigh is going to be reinventing himself any time soon; driving a taxi or working in a bakery. He is these days the Federal Member for Fraser in Federal Parliament with the ALP. He is on the line right now. Morning Andrew.

    ANDREW LEIGH, SHADOW ASSISTANT TREASURER: G’day Mark. It is my third career. I was a lawyer for a while. I was a professor for a while –

    PARTON: Yes it is. I’d forgotten about that –

    LEIGH: And we haven’t even gone into my fruit picking and newspaper delivery days -]

    Interesting that Leigh also told Hockey personally that it was foolish and vindictive to get rid of Parkinson.

    http://www.andrewleigh.com/blog/?p=5859

  43. victoria

    Mtbw

    Apparently there are no suspicious circumstances. How did fhe person come to be split into two?

  44. MTBW

    vic

    Thought the same think myself. Maybe the police are not disclosing details given she may not be resident here and families need to be informed.

    Very strange!

  45. MagicPudding

    45,46
    She must have jumped or fallen from higher up and hit the edge of the upper car park.

  46. poroti

    BH

    [I love Andrew Leigh’s ability to counteract smartarske talking heads ]
    He gets lots of practice on his fairly frequent appearances on Sky. He does do it well. A very smart cookie.

  47. bemused

    victoria@45

    Mtbw

    Apparently there are no suspicious circumstances. How did fhe person come to be split into two?

    The helplines listed below it suggest it was a suicide.

    How you could cut yourself in half and have the two halves on separate floors of a building just defies my imagination.