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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 13, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

After a period of erratic poll results from various outfits, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate appears to be recovering its equilibrium.

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This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2558 comments

2,558 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

  1. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 15m

    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 44 (0) ALP 35 (+2) GRN 12 (0) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 14m

    #Nielsen Poll Abbott: Approve 45 (0) Disapprove 49 (+2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 13m

    #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Abbott 48 (-1) Shorten 43 (+4) #auspol

  2. Personally, I found some of the signs at the rally to be tacky and apolitically visceral. I told one of those wearing a F%%k Tony Abbott t-shirt — apparently from Socialist Alternative — that this had nothing to do with critique of the system for which Abbott was merely the ugly face. I challenged her to find in Iskra an equivalent. She looked blankly back, presumably because she had no idea what Iskra was.

    Other handmade signs bore other murderous or rather scatological sentiments.

    The thing to keep in mind though is that while these sentiments are not those that serious folk would wish to be identified with in public, they are real, and a measure of how far political discourse has degenerated under the rule of Murdoch and his playthings. It’s complete hypocrisy for his bovver boys to wail their outrage in what for all practical purposes, their monopoly media organs when they have utterly trashed public discourse for much more than a decade. When you deny and silence the thoughtful and considered and reward RW angry folk with coverage, it’s almost inevitable that those marginalised will respond in kind.

    FTR, I saw a great many signs that were witty or passionate without being scatological. One person wrote: I’m so angry I made this sign! Another, channelling Father Ted, wrote, “stop these sorts of things! Another said Love knows no borders but I suppose those won’t make the news.

    When 15-17,000 people turn up to a rally, angry that the country has gone to the proverbial dogs, and that the vulnerable are being abused in our name, some are going to be rude, especially if that gets the media coverage. That’s regrettable, but also inevitable.

  3. Zoomster,

    Well, in my defence, my first paragraph did deal directly with your point, but the subsequent two did discuss related thoughts, not targeting you. It’s a bit of a flaw in the way I post, sometimes ideas get aren’t perfectly expressed.

    Pegasus,

    Yes, certainly his presence wasn’t large, Sukkar spent big and spent widely. I stayed in Mitcham for a few months before the election while I was finding a more permanent residence so walked/drove past his office a fair amount in that period (never went in, as I had no reason to). The only time I saw him was at a “Community Cabinet” in Ringwood.

  4. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir peers through Abbott’s intentions on health care.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/03/17/5266989/ac-moir-defcon-20140317064140266234-620×0.jpg
    Just in case you missed David Pope’s ripper on Saturday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Matt Golding and Abbott’s Dreamtime.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/matt-golding-20090907-fdh2.html
    Pat Campbell looks at arts funding.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    SO CLEVER!! David Rowe at the Grand Prix with Jay Weatherill and the new car specifications.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO