tip off

Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Newland and Mitchell (SA)

Two new electorate-level polls suggest an intriguing election night looms in South Australia on Saturday.

The Advertiser has published two of Galaxy’s electorate-level automated phone polls from samples of about 550, and they have produced the very interesting findings that Labor holds 51-49 leads in its key marginal seats of Mitchell and Newland. The Liberals need six seats to form a majority government, and with respective margins of 2.5% and 2.6%, the seats in question are Labor’s fifth and sixth most marginal. We will evidently have to wait until tomorrow’s hard copy of the paper for full results, but it appears the poll will show that Kris Hanna, a former Labor member for the seat who held it as an independent in 2006 but was defeated by Labor’s Alan Sibbons in 2010, is at the very least competitive.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the poll in fact has Kris Hanna a fairly distant third on 19%, with Labor on 38%, the Liberals 36%, the Greens on 4% and Family First on 3%. For Newland, the results are 44% Labor, 42% Liberal, 8% Family First and 6% Greens. With both sets of primary votes, I would have thought Labor would have been further ahead than 51-49 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports provisional results from a Newspoll survey to be completed today gives the Liberals further cause to fear they may not make it over the line:

But with results from the first 1000 voters polled showing a two-party-preferred vote of 53-47 per cent to the Liberals, Labor Premier Jay Weatherill may still have a chance of forming minority government if swings are contained in key marginal seats.

With two thirds of voters polled for an exclusive Newspoll to be published in The Weekend Australian, Labor’s primary vote has fallen from 34 per cent to 33 per cent over the past month while the Liberal Party’s primary vote has dipped slightly from 44 to 42 per cent.

122
  • 101
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Oops! That’s William R. King I am thinking of. I always get those two names confused…

  • 102
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    ABC1’s coverage begins at 6.30pm (CST) with presenter Chris Uhlmann joined by the ABC’s South Australian News Presenter Jessica Harmsen and SA Political Correspondent, Nick Harmsen. They will be joined by political analyst William Bowe and political panel, John Rau, Deputy Leader (ALP) and Member for Enfield, and Vickie Chapman, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and State Member for Bragg.

    Well done to William.

    I’m guessing moderation might be a tad relaxed tomorrow evening……

  • 103
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Vickie Chapman is almost reason enough not to watch William tomorrow.

  • 104
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    With William as the official political analyst, does that mean he gets to be the one to officially call the election?

    We might be able to bribe him into choosing a time of our liking and bet heavily on that at the pub.. :)

  • 105
    Everything
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    ….and that folks…..is how insider trading is done! :devil:

  • 106
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Vickie Chapman is almost reason enough not to watch William tomorrow.

    Is she worse than the oleaginous Uhlmann? That would be very bad indeed.

  • 107
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Actually my family want William to call the election at 7.30 so the ABC can cut its coverage early and show Midsomer Murders at a decent hour.

  • 108
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    Chapman is not only oleaginous but vinegary as well, like a tasteless salad dressing really.

  • 109
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Well I’m glad I won’t be watching. I still haven’t been told who will be hosting the election night threads here in William’s absence. Presumably nobody.

  • 110
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    If Labor doesn’t win a majority, they should resign, and refuse all blandishments to form a minority government. It’s both the right thing to do and in the party’s interest.

    oh FFS

  • 111
    spur212
    Posted Friday, March 14, 2014 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Let’s just say that Vickie Chapman is stereotypical of a very affluent and dysfunctional part of the Eastern suburbs of Adelaide.

  • 112
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
    #Newspoll SA State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47.7 (+1.7) LIB 52.3 (-1.7) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m
    #Newspoll SA State Primary Votes: ALP 34 (0) LIB 41 (-3) GRN 9 (+2) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m
    #Newspoll SA Weatherill ALP: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 42 (-2) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m
    #Newspoll SA Marshall LIB: Approve 42 (-3) Disapprove 35 (+6) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m
    #Newspoll SA Preferred Premier: Weatherill ALP 43 (+3) Marshall LIB 37 (-2) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
    #Newspoll SA State Who will win: ALP 22 (+1) LIB 59 (-2) #savotes #auspol

  • 113
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 12:38 am | Permalink

    52/48 is almost no swing at all. Labor can win from there. How bizarre.

  • 114
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m
    #Newspoll SA State Primary Votes (Adelaide): ALP 37 LIB 38 #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m
    #Newspoll SA State Primary Votes (Regional SA): ALP 24 LIB 50 #savotes #auspol

    (I am presuming Adelaide means the whole metro area, not just the seat with the same name)

  • 115
    Everything
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    YIKES!

    That is very different to the other polling.

    Looks like we have a Reachtel vs. Newspoll fight and the winner will be clear tomorrow.

    On Reachtel its a clear Lib win
    On Newspoll its a reasonably clear ALP minority government/bare majority government.

  • 116
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    My presumption in post 114 has been confirmed by Ghost him/herself, in case anybody was in doubt.

  • 117
    Independently Thinking
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 12:59 am | Permalink

    Just listened to the ABC National Radio News. 1 minute long story on Tasmanian election. Nil on South Australian. :/

  • 118
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    @ Carey Moore 112/114

    Wow. As Psephos said at 113, that’s only an 0.5% swing to the Liberals. Labor could quite easily retain majority government on that, nevermind minority government.

  • 119
    Independently Thinking
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 1:07 am | Permalink

    Oh, just noticed Newspoll results. Oh. My. Gawd.

  • 120
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 1:12 am | Permalink

    Final predictions?

    I’m going with a Lib minority government.

  • 121
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    Final predictions?

    I honestly can’t make a confident one. The numbers are everywhere. The ALP Government is on the nose, yet the Libs have run a bloody inept campaign. I’ll have to go with my gut here.

    Lib win. They’ll just get the 24 seats they need.

    But seriously, that was just a gut guess and nothing to do with psephological analysis.

    Don’t even ask about the Legislative Council! :-P

  • 122
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 1:27 am | Permalink

    New thread.

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