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South Australian election live

A thread for discussion of tonight’s South Australian election count as the results roll in.

As I type, polling booths in South Australia are set to close at any tick of the clock. I do so from the studios of ABC Television in Adelaide, where I’ll be standing in for Antony Green, who spends the evening grappling with Tasmania’s high-maintenance electoral system. Obviously I won’t have much to offer in the way of live commentary on this site, but here’s a thread where you can call the toss as the results roll in.

452
  • 101
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Light and Newland are back in Safe Labor Retain territory.

  • 102
    Kirky
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Let’s be frank – the Libs should have bolted this in, irrespective of where it ends up tonight or over the next week. If it is a hung parliament, well that will be interesting – you wouldn’t want a by-election.

    Federal implications?

  • 103
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Labor 20
    Lib 20
    Indie 2

    Five to go

    Hung parliament would be most likely.

  • 104
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    I’m calling it.

    We won’t know tonight.

  • 105
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    The two indies being Such and Brock? Which way would they jump if they had to choose.

  • 106
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    LIB swing 0.4% in Elder (2.0% margin), out of doubt zone, safe ALP retain.

  • 107
    Edi_Mahin
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    ALP just ahead in Elder and Ashford. They will lose those on prepolls etc which will favor Liberals.

  • 108
    Henry
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

    who is that crinkly biddy with the excess pearls on abc 24?

  • 109
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

    The ABC is now giving Adelaide to the Libs.

  • 110
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    Brock is proLabor

    Such is more of a Lib but he’s annoyed the Libs campaigned hard against him and says he will base his decision on his second preferences.

  • 111
    dave
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Brock is proLabor

    I would have thought Port Pirie would basically be Labor leaning?

  • 112
    ltep
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Looking like the Libs will scrape through, but not a terrible position for Labor to fight back from.

  • 113
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    If the Liberals can’t win an outright majority in SA then WTF is up with that?

    They should’ve hit this election out of the park like they did in Tas. Are we seeing federal implications, or is this more of an indictment on the SA Liberals?

  • 114
    Edi_Mahin
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

    The SA result is a clear indictment against the failing of the SA Liberals and Marshall’s leadership. They should be winning it easily but they are not and they only have themselves to blame.

  • 115
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

    @ confessions 113

    Possibly a bit of cold feet over Abbott, but I would think the major issue with the Libs not being able to get over the line easily here is the truly shambolic campaign they’ve run at the state level.

  • 116
    imacca
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    who is that crinkly biddy with the excess pearls on abc 24?

    Member for Adelaide i think?? :)

  • 117
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    Both ABC and ECSA give Lee to Libs – so much for Mulligan for next leader.

    This is getting worse for Labor I think.

  • 118
    ltep
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    Not sure I’d read anything into that Lee computer call looking at the vote figures.

  • 119
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    Looks like the voters were waiting with feather dusters.

  • 120
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    Ashford, Bright, Hartley and Lee – any advance on that?

  • 121
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    psephos

    Depends on where the indy prefs go.
    Gary Johanson 863 11.2%

  • 122
    J341983
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    I’m not trusting the computer calls on the ABC lol

  • 123
    rossmcg
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    Edi

    If the LOTO Marshall is so bad that he struggles to win what should be a stroll in the park election, what sort of premier will he be?
    Couldn’t get knifed in his first term could he?

  • 124
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    Both ABC and ECSA give Lee to Libs – so much for Mulligan for next leader.

    That would be one out of the box.

  • 125
    silentmajority
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    who is that crinkly biddy with the excess pearls on abc 24?

    I’m still waiting for someone to tell me who the bald guy is!

    ;)

    Seriously though, he should make a career out of this…

  • 126
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

    but I would think the major issue with the Libs not being able to get over the line easily here is the truly shambolic campaign they’ve run at the state level.

    Well I haven’t had any exposure to their campaign, but my experiences of the WA Liberal campaign a year ago, that was in parts shambolic, that it wasn’t enough to derail the thumping victory they achieved.

    Either people want a change of govt (or in the case of WA a majority govt), or they don’t.

  • 127
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    I’m pretty sure the Lee call is as bogus as the two 30+% swing calls for the ALP were earlier.

  • 128
    Edi_Mahin
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Early LC votes are giving over 10% to X-team. Guess Darley is retaining his seat.

    Labor only on 24%.

  • 129
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Member for Adelaide i think??

    Vicky Chapman, Member for Bragg.

  • 130
    Henry
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    who is that crinkly biddy with the excess pearls on abc 24?

    I’m still waiting for someone to tell me who the bald guy is!

    ;)

    Seriously though, he should make a career out of this…

    William’s SA counterpart?
    Doesn’t say much whoever he is.

  • 131
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Further to my 127, Lee has been removed from the seats changing hands and is now a Safe ALP Retain, with a 2.9% swing to the Liberals only.

    So Bright, Hartley and Mount Gambier are the only Liberal gains booked at this point (but Ashford is highly likely to go too, the ABC just hasn’t got enough votes in yet to make a prediction).

  • 132
    Edi_Mahin
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Mitchell looking good for the Liberals.

  • 133
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Seems the Libs will win Hartley off the ALP and Mt Gambier off an indie.

    Jay Premier tomorrow?

  • 134
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    ABC calling 21 seats for ALP, 21 for LIB, 2 IND.

    Hoo boy.

  • 135
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    OK the ABC seems to have changed its mind about Lee, giving Mulligan 55% (while calling it “Liberal retain.”) But their website is all over the place so who knows?

    What seats is William calling?

  • 136
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    @Edi_Mahin 132

    ABC Prediction shows an 0.2% swing to the ALP in Mitchell, so I wouldn’t say that.

  • 137
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    ABC computer projecting Adelaide retain to the Libs.

  • 138
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    What seats is William calling?

    I haven’t seen any William calls yet. He’s just riffing off the ABC computer.

  • 139
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    They got Lee wrong. Lee holding for Labor.

    Bright and Hartley only definite gains from Labor.

    Adelaide holds for Libs.

    21 all with two indies.

  • 140
    J341983
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    @135 … considering the ABC computer’s cock-ups, best not to bother watching the website without the TV correcting their mistakes

  • 141
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    ABC now listing Wright as ALP retain (2.9% swing against out of a 4.9% margin).

    That’s 22 seats. With the backing of the two independents, they are in government.

  • 142
    Edi_Mahin
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    Arrnea, listening to ABC Radio coverage and they were basically giving to Wingard who they interviewed and told him they were predicting him winning.

    However earlier they were giving Newland and Mawson to the Liberals as well so they might be wrong.

  • 143
    Simon Katich
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    A Liberal party hive buzzing with queen bees in a hung parliament. Pinch me!

  • 144
    JimmyDoyle
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Lee has been corrected in the ABC computer… back in the ALP column, safe retain

  • 145
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Who thinks Such would support a Labor government?

  • 146
    BK
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Leon Bignall on ABC telling us what it means to be an MP. Good stuff!

  • 147
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    @Psephos 145

    I wouldn’t put it past him, perhaps in return for the Speakership.

  • 148
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    Another crap night for the Greens, I note in passing. They’ve probably lost two seats in Tas.

  • 149
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    So Ashford and Mitchell and the indies will decide it.

  • 150
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #savotes Seat Projection (48.3% counted): ALP 23 (-3) LIB 22 (+4) IND 2 (-1)”

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