tip off

Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll strengthens the impression from last month’s result that the series may be leaning to the Coalition relative to the other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax has the Coalition leading 51-49. I’m not clear if this is based on respondent-allocated or previous election preferences, but the respective results in last month’s poll were 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition primary vote is steady on 44%, Labor is up two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 45% and his disapproval is up two to 49%, while his lead as preferred prime minister is down from 49-39 to 48-43. More to follow …

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that the poll also shows 52% support a means test for Medicare bulk billing versus 46% opposed, and the following results on what the government should do about Qantas: 30% remove foreign ownership restrictions, 20% provide debt guarantee, 3% both, 41% neither.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): After a week at 50-50, Essential Research has the Coalition back at 51-49 in front, their primary vote up a point to 43%, Labor’s down two to 36%, the Greens up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party steady at 4%. Other questions find respondents tending to oppose relaxing restrictions on the media, with 31% favouring more regulation, 15% favouring less and 36% thinking the present situation about right, while 43% are opposed to relaxing cross-media ownership laws with 29% supportive. Twenty-six per cent say they would prefer having the same party in government at both federal and state tiers against 24% who would prefer different parties and 36% who say it makes no difference. Respondents were asked if they would prefer the federal or state government to be responsible for various areas of policy, with the federal government favoured for everything except roads, regional investment and public transport.

2109
  • 1401
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    As someone whose gravatar is the most famous corruption fighter ever, I’m afraid that I have to agree with GG that ICAC has a really crap record at getting results, but I don’t think that’s a reason to shut it down.

  • 1402
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    There is a case before the High Court shortly about the passing of info from the Crime Commission to the DPP which may bear on ICAC’s capacity to share what it knows.

  • 1403
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    Vic I am a baptised Catholic too.

    I haven’t been to mass for a number of years. Do you know if they still teach / believe in the concept of purgatory?

  • 1404
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    Lynchpin

    No idea. I do know that this Pope is challenging the status quo. Guess he sees the writing on the walll if things dont change

  • 1405
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Diogs,

    So ICACs are up their with Prostate Cancer Testing and Breast Screening.

    Really, some people here are just supporters of “Chicken Soup” Government regardless of cost.

    No one is sure that it actually does any good, but it can’t hurt to have it, just in case.

  • 1406
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    WWP

    It makes findings but doen’t actually use the word guilt. They might say that their investigation showed that X received a kickback and that a task force should look at a criminal prosecution.

    Don’t forget the evidence laws are different in a RC to a criminal case.

    I passed evidence at law school, it was just the statutory setup of ICAC I wasn’t sure of, but like everyone has said I thought they made findings. They are different to a criminal conviction but I would still consider them a finding or determination.

  • 1407
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Every politician in NSW is now on their toes to avoid appearing before ICAC. That is worth a hell of a lot to stop a lot of corrupt wasteful deals at the expense of the taxpayers.

    I can bet that there are way more public servants too scared to give that time honoured frank and fearless advice owing to chambers such as ICAC and CCC than there are MPs rehabilitated from corruption.

    Just look at Mary Wiley-Smith’s presentation to the RC yesterday. And I know Mary. She’s a straight shooter.

  • 1408
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    WWP,

    Greiner had findings against him lost his career as Premier, faced charges and was exonerated.

    He was never Premier again.

  • 1409
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    Ghost reporting polls in SA independent electorates show strong support for minority Liberal government.

  • 1410
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    GG

    So ICACs are up their with Prostate Cancer Testing and Breast Screening.

    Pretty much.

    WWP

    You can’t say the make a finding of guilt as there are plenty of cases when ICAC has made an adverse finding and recommended prosecution which has died before getting to court or returned a not guilty verdict.

    So I’d say it can make an adverse finding but not a guilty finding.

  • 1411
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    He was never Premier again.

    But the Court of Appeal restored Greiner’s reputation so he could go onto a career selling smokes.

    In the 22 years since no one else has overturned an adverse finding of ICAC.

  • 1412
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    david

    Ghost reporting polls in SA independent electorates show strong support for minority Liberal government.

    Same as with Oakie and Windsor.

    Didn’t sway them.

  • 1413
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    Lynchpin

    Here is some of what the pope has been saying

    “Through humility, soul searching, and prayerful contemplation we have gained a new understanding of certain dogmas. The church no longer believes in a literal hell where people suffer. This doctrine is incompatible with the infinite love of God. God is not a judge but a friend and a lover of humanity. God seeks not to condemn but only to embrace. Like the fable of Adam and Eve, we see hell as a literary device. Hell is merely a metaphor for the isolated soul, which like all souls ultimately will be united in love with God” Pope Francis declared.

    http://diversitychronicle.wordpress.com/2013/12/05/pope-francis-condemns-racism-and-declares-that-all-religions-are-true-at-historic-third-vatican-council/

  • 1414
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    But the Court of Appeal restored Greiner’s reputation so he could go onto a career selling smokes.

    You could argue that his reputation had been trashed so badly that only the lowest of the low, ie the tobacco industry, would touch him with a barge pole.

  • 1415
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Such said he would look at where the second preferences of his supporters went to inform his decison.

  • 1416
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Dio true but shouldn’t an MP truely represent those who voted for them?

  • 1417
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    shouldn’t an MP truely represent those who voted for them?

    Why start now?

  • 1418
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    GG that’s as reasonable as any other way of deciding.

  • 1419
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Greensborough Growler@1415

    Such said he would look at where the second preferences of his supporters went to inform his decison.

    AFAIAA they would not be formally counted and he would have to rely on scrutineers reports. Such reports would probably not be very accurate as the scrutineers would have been more focussed on the flow of preferences of minor candidates.

  • 1420
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Victoria

    What the hell, do you mean to say there is no more hell? :lol:

    God is not a judge but a friend and a lover of humanity.

    But, but, did God actually tell the Pope this and when? If not, how does he know? :shock:

  • 1421
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Yeah see how long SA Gov lasts to push up GST, “as part of the review”.

  • 1422
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Vic..

  • 1423
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Shellbell,

    1. Greiner had his career in politics trashed.
    2. There are plenty of incidences where findings were not pursued because of lack of evidence to secure a conviction.

    Even Brian Burke had charges diminshed so much that the multi million dollar process expense can never justify.Especially, when you have a perfectly imperfect judicial system revving its motor in the garage.

  • 1424
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    With ICAC hearings shifting the focus on Arthur Sinodinos, here are five things you won’t know about the Assistant Treasurer and former adviser to John Howard.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/five-things-you-didnt-know-about-arthur-sinodinos-20140318-34zmx.html#ixzz2wJXitLjH

    And a poll at the end (FWIW) showing majority support for Sinodinos standing down while the investigation continues.

  • 1425
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Even Brian Burke had charges diminshed so much that the multi million dollar process expense can never justify.

    The insider trading charges were dropped by the Cwlth despite the then CCC investigation happening at the time.

    So much for the CCC.

  • 1426
    silentmajority
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    An opinion piece from news.com

    http://www.news.com.au/opinion/opinion-march-in-march-was-big-on-people-power-and-it-had-a-point/story-e6frfs99-1226858342518

    Rupert must have taken his hand off the rudder!

  • 1427
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    GG

    1. Good – he deserved it for doing a sweetheart deal with Terry Metherell
    2. Sure that it is inevitable because ICAC is not an agent of the DPP.

    Brian Burke had some charges dismissed but they were reinstated by the Court of Appeal then not pursued.

    We could go on forever but our ordinary courts are not good at this corruption stuff hence we have ICAC which most people love and which, as a matter of legal principle, the highest courts say is a valid legal institution.

    Time for a snooze.

  • 1428
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    I’m not up to speed on the story but did Sinodinos stand to collect a windfall of $20 million if a deal went a certain way?

    If he was bribed for $20 million and he accepted it, he should be jailed!

  • 1429
    sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    victoria – unfortunately that pope quote is a hoax/satire

  • 1430
    Bugler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Vic,

    Craig Thomson also said that he would be vindicated…..oh well

    Sinodinos is a proven smart operator. The evidence says Thomson barely operates

  • 1431
    sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    there has not been a third vatican council. the piece you cite is wishful thinking. it’d be great if were true, but unfortunately the pope isn’t that progressive or brave.

  • 1432
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Lynchpin/Centre

    To be honest, I am not sure if Pope francis actually made those comments. I have only read them at the link i posted. I have not heard it repeated anywhere else.

  • 1433
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Shellbell,

    The evidence would suggest the ICAC type inquiries are even worse at this “corrruption stuff”.

  • 1434
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Sustainable future

    I reckon that is correct. The only reports i have heard in the mainstream are those he made re capitalism

  • 1435
    Bugler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Thanks for your comments tonight, shellbell. They were insightful as always. I may have askewed studying law formally but I do maintain an interest in how it operates an appreciate your very broad knowledge of the system :)

  • 1436
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    unfortunately that pope quote is a hoax/satire

    Well thank heaven’s, Bart Simpson will be pleased there is still a hell at least.

  • 1437
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Centre,

    Welcome to 6pm.

  • 1438
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Centre the $20 million is an estimate calculated by an accounting firm based on events happening which never in fact happened. In finality the $20 million became $3.4 million and Sinodinos gave up entitlement to the smaller amount.

  • 1439
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    @davidwh/1438

    In other words, it still happened, just different amount.

  • 1440
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    davidwh,

    Yeah, in horse racing parlance, all he had to do was finish the race!

  • 1441
    Bugler
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    davidwh,

    Dio true but shouldn’t an MP truely represent those who voted for them?

    Stable, competent Government should be what sways them the most. If that wasn’t the case, then you could argue that as soon as the public mood changes, so should Independent support of one side or another.

    It would seem that supporting the Liberals this time would deliver an unstable outcome, and the SA Liberals competence may soon have them facing a number of political scandals. Then again, for all we know there may be a mid-term change of Government.

    (It was actually one of the curious things with the last federal Parliament, with the Indies fearing if Abbott formed Gov’t he’d call an election straight away. Surely the GG would have been well within her rights to follow convention and say “you have demonstrated that stable Government can be formed with this Parliament, so suck it up and deal with what the people just voted for”)

  • 1442
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    The most important quality in a politician in a democracy is integrity.

    I actually find it appalling that a politician can rip off tax payers by claiming expenses to fund the launch of a book for personal gain, then give the money back when caught.

    Battlelines is an example!

  • 1443
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Do you know something (and I hope no Liberal insiders read this) I actually think it is a real bad look the longer Abbott sticks by Sinodinos.

    All good, but Labor should keep slowly tightening the screws!

  • 1444
    Schnappi
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Good ole honest Joe

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/eddie-obeidlinked-company-donated-10000-to-joe-hockeys-electorate-committee-20140318-350gj.html

  • 1445
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    The Obeid-linked water company at the centre of conflict of interest allegations that are before the Independent Commission Against Corruption made multiple donations to the Liberal Party as it sought political favour, including a direct donation of $10,000 to Joe Hockey's federal electorate committee in 2010 - just weeks before the election that year.
    The link is the first evidence tying Australian Water Holdings (AWH) to the Treasurer and is revealed in the Australian Electoral Commission's Donor to Political Party Disclosure Return - Organisations report for the financial year 2010-11.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/eddie-obeidlinked-company-donated-10000-to-joe-hockeys-electorate-committee-20140318-350gj.html#ixzz2wJguDerM

  • 1446
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord as I understand it Sinodinos was to get a 5%share as part of his remuneration plus a further 2.5% if a contract was to go ahead. If both those things happened his 7.5% interest could have been worth between $10 and $20 million. As it happened neither happened and he was left with a 5% entitlement worth around $3.4 million which he has passed up on.

    The $10-20 million is an estimate only which can never be accurately assessed.

  • 1447
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    Australian Water Holdings is state owned right? Doesn’t that mean the Liberals are ripping off Tax Payers?

    And they complain about selling State/Goverment owned infrastructure when they rip off the voters?

  • 1448
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Back to the missing MH370 plane for a moment.

    Wait on a freaking minute. The transponder stopped transponding, ok?

    SO WHY DIDN’T THE BALLOON GO UP?????

    Something very strange about all of this. None of the scenarios make sense… because of the knowledge and effort required to turn off the transponder…the programmed first diversion of the flight path….it looks as though an attempt to give the impression of a particular flight path. Then the suggestion by NYT that the plane could have gone under radar 5000 feet.,,…and so on.

    The only scenario that works is if the plane was being stolen….but that too is just nuts because it would require a govt and its secret service/military to do that…and why on earth bother for an everyday jet liner….and I doubt that anything of significance so extreme to bring about such an act would be carried on a commercial liner.

    Also if the aircraft headed down south..south west….wouldn’t it have appeared on JORN?

  • 1449
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Schnappi

    So according to the link you have posted, Abbott reckons Sinodinos should keep his ministerial position because the matters before ICAC related to events before he entered parliament!

    Does that sound familiar?

    You see, that’s why people want to take the Monkey round the back of the dunnies at Brookvale Oval and give him a good belting.

    *night

  • 1450
    deblonay
    Posted Tuesday, March 18, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    A US journal claims to know the type of austerity the IMF/World Bank is about to impose on the people of the Ukraine
    They cite” The Greek Model” as the way to trim down an already poor natiop,with massive asckings/wage cuts and pension cuts in all directions

    They plan to recruit an armed force of 60.000 to help the regime survive “social unrest” as they implement theor massive onslought pn the Ukrainian working-class
    a dire prospect,,,but we all know how the Banksters and the EU punished the Greek people

    http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/03/15/pers-m15.html

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...