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Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll strengthens the impression from last month’s result that the series may be leaning to the Coalition relative to the other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax has the Coalition leading 51-49. I’m not clear if this is based on respondent-allocated or previous election preferences, but the respective results in last month’s poll were 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition primary vote is steady on 44%, Labor is up two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 45% and his disapproval is up two to 49%, while his lead as preferred prime minister is down from 49-39 to 48-43. More to follow …

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that the poll also shows 52% support a means test for Medicare bulk billing versus 46% opposed, and the following results on what the government should do about Qantas: 30% remove foreign ownership restrictions, 20% provide debt guarantee, 3% both, 41% neither.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): After a week at 50-50, Essential Research has the Coalition back at 51-49 in front, their primary vote up a point to 43%, Labor’s down two to 36%, the Greens up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party steady at 4%. Other questions find respondents tending to oppose relaxing restrictions on the media, with 31% favouring more regulation, 15% favouring less and 36% thinking the present situation about right, while 43% are opposed to relaxing cross-media ownership laws with 29% supportive. Twenty-six per cent say they would prefer having the same party in government at both federal and state tiers against 24% who would prefer different parties and 36% who say it makes no difference. Respondents were asked if they would prefer the federal or state government to be responsible for various areas of policy, with the federal government favoured for everything except roads, regional investment and public transport.

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  • 101
    victoria
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    Richo was banging on about how something is very wrong with the electoral boundaries in SA, cos the fibs got 53% on 2pp and cant win enough seats. On the other hand, with the same 2pp, the fibs won 90 out of 150 seats. Of course, he failed to see the hypocrisy of that analogy.
    Based on that premise, 53% of the vote should have only garnered 79 seats for the fibs, but they actually got 90

  • 102
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Orphans of soldiers to have welfare payments cut

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/orphans-of-soldiers-to-have-welfare-payments-cut/story-fni0xqrb-1226856307076

    such class these LNP people

  • 103
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Too many assessments focus so narrowly that they do not take account of cumulative affects.

    THE Queensland Government's coastal zone strategic assessment of the Great Barrier Reef did not pay enough attention to dredging and port developments, an independent review has found.

    The independent report, by consultants SKM for the federal Environment Department, also found Queensland's current draft future management plans will likely fail to halt the decline of the reef.

    It singled out the deteriorating southern parts of the reef, areas including Gladstone Harbour and Abbot Point, and "limited attention" paid to concerns surrounding dredging and coastal development.

    Ordered by the previous federal government, the review was quietly released on the department's website, before the Abbott Government reported to the World Heritage Committee on the dual assessments in February.

    http://www.thesatellite.com.au/news/queensland-plan-will-not-save-barrier-reef/2196823/

  • 104
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    I had a quick re-read of William’s prognostications regarding the up-coming (as they were then) elections in Tassi and SA in Crikey a few days ago.

    Congratulations William – I doubt whether many other commentators were so much on the money.

    And as our other wise man Mr B noted, the ability of the punters/bookies to pick winners again took a hell of a beating.

    Congratulations then to those game enough to take a punt on Labor, yet to be confirmed, at the odds. You have reason to smile.

  • 105
    poroti
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    victoria

    I very rarely watch sky these days, but nothing Richo

    After seeing the great media silence yesterday over the marches I checked out Sky News last night. Very surprised on a couple of fronrs. Not only did they give it a fair amount of coverage the words used were positive. The crowds were “very large” and “good humoured” .

  • 106
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    Richo reminds me of the poacher who has turned game keeper but has grown sleek and fat on the carrion found in the park.

    Amazing that he has the front to have any connection to Labor at all.

    I guess he is to Labor as Malcolm is to the Liberals – a big disappointment if not a complete turncoat.

  • 107
    poroti
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Orphans of soldiers to have welfare payments cut

    What a complete arsehat Abbott is. They get a whole bloody $211 a year . Petty and nasty to the bone.

  • 108
    sustainable future
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    anybody else see a contradiction here in a Mark Kenny article in the age?

    PM backed despite job losses

    Tony Abbott's Coalition government has maintained a narrow lead over the Labor opposition despite a spate of high-profile job losses in the past month, talk of a Medicare co-payment, a tough budget approaching and the decision to deny a credit guarantee to Qantas.
    The outcome is likely to put further steel in the government's resolve to pursue policies previously thought to be unpopular yet necessary to help balance the budget and to establish new limits on the responsibilities of government vis-a-vis the private sector.

    bur right at the bottom of the article we have:

    when voters were asked where they would direct their second preference, the two-party-preferred split reversed, putting Labor 2 points up on the government at 51/49.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/pm-backed-despite-job-losses-20140316-34vuc.html

    They also have a video commentary entitled “PM in solid position”.

    admittedly, they also have “Government clings to poll lead” and “abbott still unpopular with voters”.

    My headline would be “Abbott is fucked if he keeps going the way he inevitably will” and “Shorten with best LOTO results at this stage of the electoral cycle in 40 years of polling”.

    Unfortunately I’d have to add “Abbott has rat cunning, no self-doubt, lies without scrutiny, and has the advice of the king rat Howard, as well as the backing of Australia’s wealthiest and hard right loons Murdoch, Reinhardt and much of the business community – he will probably win the next election”.

  • 109
    markjs
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Difference is stark…

    Abbott & members of his front bench (+ Ken Wyatt) stood proudly IN FRONT of the abusive banners ON THE STAGE …thus endorsing them..

    Abbott did it on TWO SEPARATE occasions…

    Nobody from ANY political party similarly endorsed the few tasteless banners scattered among the many excellent & often very funny ones at the MarchinMarch rallies..

    There were NO abusive banners on the stages…

    Abbott & Co were preaching and endorsing hate …particularly towards Julia Gillard

  • 110
    victoria
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    Poroti

    Sky news is generally quite good. It is the political commentary from people such as Richo, Graeme Morruson and others that make it difficult to watch

  • 111
    Frodo Baggins
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    " If the ALP pamphlet was deliberately xenophobic, then it stinks"

    It has a picture of a Primate on the side of it which is presumably meant to be Habib.

    I’m not sure what more evidence you need of the claim.

  • 112
    silentmajority
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    I’ve gone right through The W3st Strayum and there’s no mention of a march.

    Who’d a thunk it.

  • 113
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Sheehan’s article does raise an interesting question about religious representation in the ADF — why are the numbers of Catholics so disproportionately high?

    Catholics represent 25% of the general population, yet this article claims that the ADF is 40% Catholic.

    Not being anti Catholic, just wondering…

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/criticising-islam-gays-sets-army-major-up-for-a-fall-20140316-34va7.html

  • 114
    Slav G
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Frodo Baggins@109


    ” If the ALP pamphlet was deliberately xenophobic, then it stinks”


    It has a picture of a Primate on the side of it which is presumably meant to be Habib.

    I’m not sure what more evidence you need of the claim.

    Where did you find that? ABC web site describes nothing like that.

  • 115
    Slav G
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Now if you want to say that Ms Habib’s silhouette looks like a primate then that is your own interpretation of a shadow. Don’t attribute that to other people.

  • 116
    silentmajority
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    In other fabulous news..

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-17/plane-flies-over-the-northeast-greenland-ice-stream/5324984

  • 117
    sustainable future
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Frodo

    where’ the primate?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-12/habib-leaflet/5316036

    is this akin to where’s wally or a graeme base book, or do we just have to be from the same planet as you?

    I can see nothing on this pamphlet that suggests anything other than advertising agencies believes graffiti/street art type stenciling writing is ‘scary’. The LNP are hearing dog whistles because they’ve been blowing them for at least the past 12 years (and earlier – with Howard in the 1980s saying he understood that ‘some people’ felt there was too much asian immigration and pledging to limit numbers).

  • 118
    Slav G
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Wow!!! That ‘what appears to be a bullet riddled wall’ rubbish in the ABC article must have been written by someone who has never seen a bullet riddled wall.

  • 119
    Slav G
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-12/carolyn-habib-claims-pamphlett-racist/5316018

    Article I am referring to.

  • 120
    Slav G
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    Oh never mind, it was Brandis that said it. Explains it all

  • 121
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    Did Ms Habib defend the claims made in that pamplet, e.g. her alleged responsibility for large rates increases in Marion Council, scrapping $100m in upgrades to Finders Medical, lying about toll roads and so forth? All I have heard from her cheer squad are complaints about ‘racism’, so presumably the other charges are true. Maybe that’s what had an impact on her campaign.

    The Liberals, dog-whistlers supreme, are the ultimate hypocrites.

  • 122
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    I assume the “monkey” is part of her shadow.

  • 123
    silentmajority
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    Geez, the Libs are jumping at shadows now.

  • 124
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    All the outrage at the voters getting it wrong in the ballot box are being channel through faux outrage at a pamphlet almost no one would have seen or read if the libs hadn’t made a fuss of it.

    Poor petals how could the voters get it so wrong.

  • 125
    poroti
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    DisplayName

    It’s a Rorschach test. Some people see the word Habib and the silhouette and see it as that of a woman’s head looking at the reader. Others see the word Habib and the silhouette and see a monkey.

  • 126
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    So the LNP supporters are real proud of their “Red Tape Repeal Day”

    In here banging on about an election pamphlet after the vote.

    Does not sound like LNP supporters expect “red tape” to be a vote winner in future elections. Maybe not even the WA by election.

  • 127
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    poroti
    That seems to be the case.

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    “@Quiet__Please: So will Tony Abbott address the crowd outside, or is he just another wimp or coward

    #MarchInMarch
    #MarchInMarchCanberra

    #auspol”

  • 129
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Prime Minister @TonyAbbottMHR is speaking in Canberra http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #auspol #tasvotes #savotes”

  • 130
    Slav G
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    DisplayName@120

    I assume the “monkey” is part of her shadow.

    It’s like reading clouds. You will see what you want to see. I can see a gorilla in there too if I look hard enough but obviously it is a shadow of a woman with a similar hairdo that Ms Habib has.

    As for the racism, if they said “Can you trust a Habib” than they would have a case for racism/xenophobia as it would encompass every single Habib out there but “Can you trust Habib” is pretty damn specific. As BBill said on page one, it is her last name. If she finds it difficult to handle being called by her surname, she should change it. If she thinks the same thing implies racism, she should read some history books on the subject.

  • 131
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    The WA figures in this poll (and the sample size might be too small to mean much) are: Libs 46%, ALP 31, Green 12 and PUP 4.

    On those figures, assuming the Senate vote was similar, the Libs get 3 Senators with 2% of a quota over, ALP gets 2 with 3% of a quota over, and the Greens fall short of a quota by about 2.3%.

    So that looks like a LNP 3, ALP 2, Greens 1 Senate.

  • 132
    Maude Lynne
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    “It has a picture of a Primate on the side of it which is presumably meant to be Habib.”

    Humans ARE primates, Frodo (109)

  • 133
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    I hope that turns out wrong. I want the LNP to be 2 and the third to go either Labor or Green.

  • 134
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Right – that ‘ape’ on the left of the pamphlet confused me. It’s actually a silhouette of the candidate herself. Whether the ‘ape’ appearance is intentional or not, unflattering pictures / representations of opponents is hardly anything new and is not racist.

  • 135
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Why ending the mining tax is a stupid idea.

    We don’t own our mining industry – 80% of profits go offshore. This makes any ‘trickle down’ argument completely irrelevant.

    In other words, our miners earn huge economic rents.

    What the mining bashers miss is that when all the income generated by an industry is spent, it generates jobs throughout the economy. This includes the income the industry pays in tax, which generates jobs when it's spent by governments.

    In the case of mining, however, there's a weakness in this argument. For the income earned by an industry to generate jobs in Australia, it has to be spent in Australia. And our mining industry is about 80 per cent foreign-owned.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/ending-mining-tax-will-damage-jobs-20140316-34vh1.html#ixzz2wAlw3skq

  • 136
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    guytaur – the only way the LNP will get 2 is if PUP or the Nats (or some random micro) claim a 3rd “conservative” seat. 2 ALP and 1 Green is an improvement over 2013, so be very happy if that is the outcome.

  • 137
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Jackol

    Awwwwww. Not allowed to be greedy :evil:

  • 138
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    @Kate_McClymont: Sensational – unwittingly and unknowingly Sydney Water has been a huge donor to the Libs as they were paying the expenses of AWH #ICAC

  • 139
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    I see there are Tories still going on about the SA 2PP. They are like the footy fAn who complains that his team had more shots on goal but still lost.
    There is only one stat that matters: seats won.

  • 140
    Simon Katich
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    Fran 2335? last thread…

    When 15-17,000 people turn up to a rally....some are going to be rude, especially if that gets the media coverage. That’s regrettable, but also inevitable.

    I liked this post, and others regarding the march. I too was a little upset at some signs and at the Adelaide march when one of the speakers started swearing (I had children there, but thats not the only reason I was upset).

    This was a great opportunity to harness the ‘not happy John’ middle Australia unease with the current direction (political and social) being set. As a grass roots campaign it almost did that (or at least spark the start of it) even tho I was worried it was too soon after the election.

    Lessons to be learnt, try again please.

  • 141
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    Haha

    Paul Bongiorno destroy’s Abbott rhetoric on red tape by pointing out Howard era regulation protected Australia from the GFC unlike the US

  • 142
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: .@TonyAbbottMHR: We’re getting rid of legislation, we’re not adding to legislation #auspol”

    From the evidence this is indeed the agenda.

  • 143
    poroti
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    Zoomster

    Ghost who votes has a table where you can look at state break downs an their margins of error. W.A. is 7.9%

    http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/nielsen-140317.png

  • 144
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    shysters and rip-off merchants loving this presser

  • 145
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    “@DaKangaroo: “Accountability Fetish” – Yet another term brought to you by Tony Abbott. Yes, now even Accountability is implied to be weird. #auspol”

  • 146
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    At presser we saw right wing run agenda. No questions about marchers and issues.

    Don’t exist to Canberra Press Gallery.

  • 147
    liyana
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    Bulk billing- I was bulk billed for a doctor’s visit to my home on Saturday night – she was a pretty good doctor too. Of course I had to wait for 3 hours – but it wasn’t life or death.

  • 148
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    So the real agenda is smaller gov by the means of less legislation?

    Quiet pathetic the liberals, Mod Lib & Co should be ashamed for supporting these nut cases on any level.

  • 149
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    Henry

    Dio from last thread re: NFL.
    That sport is in serious trouble due to the many head collisions.
    George Will, a conservative US political pundit who I admire and an NFL fan believes the game could be banned within 10 years.
    The head impacts in this code are massive and continuous, and the suicide rate is high amongst many former players with this disease.
    Many of those committing suicide tend to shoot themselves in the stomach or find some other way to top themselves so their brain is left undamaged and can be analysed by science. It’s a massive issue in contact sports.

    Completely agree. Sports like the AFL and rugby are praying it will go away and hoping that doing the bare minimum will be okay.

    Eventually either governments or the law courts will decide the issue.

    It’s a bit like the tobacco-cancer issue. If the evidence gets good enough that contact sports with head injuries are definitely causing a significant number of serious brain injuries, it will be on for young and old.

  • 150
    markjs
    Posted Monday, March 17, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Accountability now a “fetish”…

    When will he call democracy a “fetish”?…

    Un-installing democracy——-

    Installing fascism——

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