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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 20, 2014

BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

A slight lead in Nielsen, together with the fading effect of weak results a few weeks back, finds the Coalition squeaking ahead on two-party preferred for the first time this year.

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This week’s lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, together with a particularly bad result for Labor from Essential, has given the Coalition a two-party lead in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the first time this year, albeit by the barest of margins. This represents a considerable move on last week’s result, which equally reflects the fading effect of Labor’s 54-46 and 53-47 leads in Newspoll and ReachTEL three to four weeks ago. With the electoral terrain favouring the Coalition, a fairly comfortable majority is recorded on the seat projection, with four coming off the Labor gains from Queensland since last week, together with two each from New South Wales and Victoria and one each from Western Australia and Tasmania. A new set of leadership figures is provided by Nielsen, which maintains the slowly narrowing trajectory on preferred prime minister and slightly lifts both leaders on net satisfaction.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1655 comments

1,655 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

  1. Tom the first and best

    1559

    One case does not provide sufficient evidence for basing the retirement age on.

    Such has lasted longer than the lead candidate for Dignity for Disability did at the last election. Had another candidate also died, the Legislative Council election would have had to be postponed. Do you think that candidates should have to provide a medical certificate to certify that they have enough life expectancy to live out their term in enough health to serve? I think that it too restrictive.

  2. Tom the first and best

    By last election I mean 2010, the last election where the counting is finished.

  3. Centre

    What about somebody charging the taxpayer to promote your book for personal gain?

    Yes, perfectly acceptable I suppose!

    No try hehe, good

  4. Everything

    …or your partner using your taxpayer funded car to drive around Altona selling shampoo and other haircare products…..

    :devil:

  5. paaptsef

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-22/mh370-new-debris-china-satellites-malaysia/5339092
    Expect a dramatic announcement of this by Abbott it about 4 days

  6. bemused

    Calm down Puffy, we all know Libs are an ethical void and Mad Lib is no exception.

  7. Centre

    paaptsef

    There must be some way Abbott could claim credit surely?

  8. bemused

    Centre@1612

    paaptsef

    There must be some way Abbott could claim credit surely?

    Well China is our best friend, along with Japan, Indonesia and goodness knows who else. 😀

    Friends do things for you.

  9. Centre

    Bemused

    Yes, especially if you are the bestest friend each and every one of them ever had 😀

  10. paaptsef

    [ There must be some way Abbott could claim credit surely? ]
    Harold Holt is the father of Chinese Satellite capability?

  11. dave

    But PNG never got the bestest friend moniker?

    Lucky PNG.

    They just want the money not bullshit.

  12. Tricot

    Big pictures of Clive appearing round Perth at the moment.

  13. Tricot

    Is he the only one who thinks there is a Senate election on here in Perth?

  14. Frodo Baggins

    Is it true Tanya Pliberseks hubby is kicking poor people out of their homes?

  15. Centre

    Half-time at the footy, the Warriors lead rua’s $1.35 favourites 😆 by 8 to 6 but have scored 2 tries to 1.

    Every year they make rule changes, some silly but never fix one of the game’s biggest problems.

    Hello, 2 points for conversions that should not only be taken by the try scorer by the way, but they should be worth 1 point.

    Field goals in American football are worth 3 points whereas touch downs are worth double.

    Our field goals should be worth half as much – 2 points as well.

    Sheez, do I have to tell them EVERYTHING!

  16. dave

    [ Floating debris spotted by Chinese satellite image

    A Chinese satellite has identified another object in the Indian Ocean that could be from the missing Malaysia Airlines airliner.

    The object is about 22.5 metres long and 13 metres wide.

    Chinese ships and planes were heading towards the area on Saturday night.

    China’s embassy in Kuala Lumpur advised Malaysian authorities of the sighting late on Saturday.

    Malaysia’s acting transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein announced the finding after being handed a note during a press briefing where he expressed concern about a category one cyclone forming the Indian Ocean near Australia’s remote Christmas Island.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-floating-debris-spotted-by-chinese-satellite-image-20140322-35ap6.html#ixzz2wgmEQq21

  17. sprocket_

    [But behind the scenes Sinodinos was under a lot of pressure. He was a man needing to make money, and to make it fast. The Newcastle-born Sinodinos, 57, married late in life. He was in his forties when he met his glamorous bride-to-be Elizabeth, almost two decades younger, at their Greek Orthodox Church. Sinodinos’s sedate, solid world soon disappeared. The couple rented a Rose Bay house with panoramic views of Sydney Harbour for almost $100,000 a year; leased luxury European cars; and three children followed – as did a whirlwind of social engagements]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/arthur-sinodinos-the-man-least-likely-20140321-358ko.html#ixzz2wgpZoqFe%5D

  18. sprocket_

    Murdoch Maiden Miranda putting the slipper into Artie.

    [Sinodinos’ tardy acceptance of the reality of his situation has delivered ammunition to those cynics who regard the major parties as equally reprehensible. It’s played into the hands of those who claim the last three years didn’t represent a new ethical low in public life and that it was just Tony Abbott’s aggressive “misogyny” which made politics look tawdry. It gave succour to those who say the royal commissions into corrupt unions and pink batts are politically motivated and hypocritical. It’s given Penny Wong her first taste of blood.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/sinodinos-delay-is-an-own-goal/story-fni0cwl5-1226862027622

  19. AussieAchmed

    or using taxpayer money to;
    attend mates weddings,
    go to football and rugby matches,
    check on investment properties,
    promote your book…..

  20. Steve777

    Abbott’s got his instructions from Murdoch.

    I don’t regard both parties as equally reprehensible. The Liberals and Abbott in particular are a moral vacuum.

  21. AussieAchmed

    And no matter how you spin it your comment was disgusting and lacking any compassion or empathy….but then you are a Liberal so its not surprising

  22. milenko

    sprocket @1624

    “Abbott’s loyalty and decency meant he would do no less but it never should have reached that point.”

    Seems like Miranda is wiping Tony’s backside….. How sycophantic!

  23. milenko

    Sprocket following on from your post @ 1624

    Is Miranda just plain stupid or does she think all her readers are…..

    “The fact he ( Sinodinos) renounced those riches to re-enter public life in 2011 speaks against the venality ( Corruption) implied in recent reporting of his troubles”…

    He only did this after his problems were exposed , if he were genuine he would have done it before… he thought he would get away with it

  24. Dee

    BB

    Tinfoil hat alert…….

    [Homeland Security News
    Emergency landing round-up
    Boeing wins patent on uninterruptible autopilot system
    Published 4 December 2006]

    [New technology can be activated by the pilots, government agencies, even on-board sensors; not even a tortured pilot can give up control; dedicated electrical circuits ensure the system’s total independence]

    [Boeing’s is, of course, not the first autopilot technology in existence, but this one has been designed with counterterrorism first and foremost in mind. Not only is it “uninterruptible” — so that even a tortured pilot cannot turn it off — but it can be activated remotely via radio or satellite by government agencies. The system might even include senors on the cockpit door that activate the autopilot of a certain amount of force is used against it. “There is a need for a technique that ensures the continuation of the desired path of travel of a vehicle by removing any type of human decision process that may be influenced by the circumstances of the situation, including threats or further violence onboard the vehicle,” the patent application explains. To make it fully independent, the system also has its own power supply, independent of the aircraft’s circuit breakers.]

  25. Bushfire Bill

    [BB

    Tinfoil hat alert……. ]

    Basically, if the aims (of whomever could make the decisions) were to:

    1. Fly to the Indian Ocean,

    2. Land the plane safely but discreetly,

    3. Hanger it untilfurther notice,

    4. Act as a base for further flights out,

    … then Diego Garcia is the ONLY place all of these objectives could have been accomplished.

    Now it turns out Boeing know how to control an aircraft without input from the pilots. Whether this requires extra equipment to be installed, and how this equipment could have been instralled secretly, is another matter.

    But hey, R2-D2 just “plugged in” to the Death Star’s system and took control of even the garbage compactors. Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum injected a virus into the alien mothership in Independence Day, without even knowing the extraterrestrial code structure (much less the mnemonics for assembler for assembler language).

    So maybe there was a way. Every system has a back door.

  26. deblonay

    John PIlger writes for US audiences about the coup against Whitlam in 1975, with a detailed outline of the links betwen Kerr and the CIA ,and the way that Washington organised the over throw of the Whitlam Labor Govt
    Pilger’s new film”Utopia” looks at these events

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/17/the-forgotten-coup/

  27. deewhytony

    Late enough for a conspiracy theory?

    The Malaysian Airlines plane was carrying tons of gold to China.

    This gold was to support their currency, if and when, they wanted to leverage America to their will by threatening to sell off their $US holdings.

    The CIA finds out about this, takes control of the plane and attempts to fly it to Diego Garcia.

    Now for the tricky bit.

    They have to work at the planning stage whether there will be enough fuel on board to fly that far.

    Here’s the kicker!

    There are a bit less than 3.8 litres in a US gallon and a bit more than 4.5 litres in a UK gallon.

    Somehow, the CIA does not factor this in and there is not enough fuel to reach Diego Garcia.

    The plane crashes and loaded up with gold, goes straight to the bottom of the ocean.

    Well, I did say it was getting late..

  28. deblonay

    1633 dyt re missing plane

    anything is possible and almost anything is believable when it comes to the schemes of the US Empire

    see my post 1632 re Whitlam anf his downfall

  29. Tom the first and best

    1633

    Is there anywhere that still measures aircraft fuel in UK gallons? Of the three non-metric nations, the USA and (I believe) Liberia use the US system and Burma uses UK gallons.

    Why would a Malaysian aircraft, flying from Malaysia to China (so metric it even uses metres for aircraft altitudes) have any fuel in gallons?

  30. cud chewer

    Bushfire,

    I’ll have you know on authority that the Martians beamed it up! 🙂

  31. deewhytony

    Quite right dB.

    You would think they could get something right though!

    CIA have not had a win since they bumped off the two Kennedys and Martin Luther King.

  32. deblonay

    Counterpunch looks at the US Economic Crisis
    _________________________

    Can you believe it.?..1/3 of the Population of Philidelphia now lives on Food Stamps…the only aid to the poor and destitute in the USA

    The Repugnant Gov of the state ,sought to cut the number of people receiving the benefits,but it would have caused ruin to many small businesses which depend on the Food Stamps for a large part of their daily trade in many poor suburbs of this largely destitute city..so he had to back off

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/21/the-american-crisis/

  33. scorpio

    I went close to wetting my pants laughing when I read that link to that piece by Miranda Devine!

    [ SENATOR Arthur Sinodinos was a loyal lieutenant to Australia’s favourite Prime Minister, John Howard. ]

    He wasn’t any favourite of mine or anybody else I know. He was a cretin and still is!

    [ Abbott’s loyalty and decency meant he would do no less but it never should have reached that point. ]

    LOL!

    [ For a government which won its spurs on the back of what Christopher Pyne rightly calls the “sewer” of Labor politics, standing by Sinodinos a fraction too long was a devastating own goal. ]

    Blimey, eh! A Labor sewer!!!!!!!!

    [ The Liberal NSW Energy Minister Chris Hartcher stood down last year after being named in ICAC’s Operation Spicer. ]

    Blimey, eh! Even the Libs would have had to cut “that” character loose!

    [ It gave succour to those who say the royal commissions into corrupt unions and pink batts are politically motivated and hypocritical. ]

    You mean to say they’re not?

    [ The fact he renounced those riches to re-enter public life in 2011 speaks against the venality implied in recent reporting of his troubles. ]

    What? Do you mean to say he was working for them for “nothing”? Somehow I doubt it. I would thing he did very well out of his involvement with them!

    And finishing off the piece with this looks suspiciously like pointing to a Unicorn. “Quick, look over there.”

    [ Overturning the astonishingly lenient good behaviour bond handed to a paedophile who raped his own daughter, three NSW appeals court judges last week sheeted the blame home to the prosecution. ]

    Blimey, no wonder hardly anyone reads this rubbish anymore!

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/sinodinos-delay-is-an-own-goal/story-fni0cwl5-1226862027622

  34. scorpio

    deblonay,

    [ 1/3 of the Population of Philidelphia now lives on Food Stamps ]

    I heard that they didn’t taste too bad with a bit of tomato sauce on them. 😉

  35. scorpio

    Time to go before I outlive my very limited welcome here.

    Goodnight to everyone still conscious!

  36. absolutetwaddle

    deewhytony

    “CIA have not had a win since they bumped off the two Kennedys and Martin Luther King.”

    I hope you’re joking. For your sake.

  37. Tom the first and best

    1643

    For starters the CIA had a win in Chile in 1973.

  38. deblonay

    The murderers of the CIA
    ____________________

    ________ The CIA has a long hstory of overthrowing Govts of the left and installing right-wing ‘fascist favourites..like Allende…and .not just in Chile and elsewhere in Latin America…but in the 1970ies in Greece where the Colonels were their chosen instrument and here of course they were undoubtedly involved with Kerr(see Pilger’s material)in removing Whitlam…and I have doubt they are involved in the Ukraine with the recent coup there

    ..,and not to believe that is to show a lack of understanding of the world
    That’s is how Empires behave…but Empires are a costly luxury for the ruling classes,and they bring financial ruin …hopefully that is well on the way in the case of the USA
    and the list goes on
    They are the cutting edge of the US Empire,and the great corpaations which exist as central part of US imperialism

    A terrible and noted example was in Uruguay a small democracy ,where in 1974 they overthrew a leftist regime…and then installed a military regime which murdered and tortured a great number of people

    Again at the same time in Argentina and Brazil,they supported vile military regimes which killed tens of thousands of leftists
    The present Govt of Uruguay recently acknowledged this and makes no doubts about the malign influence of the CIA

  39. deblonay

    error.in post 1645.. I should have said”right-wing fascist favouritee like Pinochet who of course murdered Allende the Socialist President of Chile .”..as we later learned it ws all known to Nixon and Kissinger who approved the coup

  40. deblonay

    The War Lobby in the USA
    _______
    David Swanson,a US writer looks at the power and role of the War Lobby and their friends in the armaments lobby and their effects on US policy and on many US politicians

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/03/david-swanson/war-drums-along-the-potamac/

  41. Steven Grant Haby

    Re the war lobby in the US

    Bring on a full all out nuclear war and destroy these b*stards once and for all… as in the war lobby etc and so forth.

    … not to mention the rest of the world.

    But then I hazard to guess that the war lobby are also god botherers of the first water so they wouldn’t and don’t care.

    Too much sugar as young children I’d say

  42. absolutetwaddle

    deblonay

    Okay. But there is no evidence that the CIA were involved in, authorised or enacted the assassinations of JFK or MLK. The people who were responsible are well known and the evidence against them (and them alone) is substantial.

  43. geoffrey

    deblonay

    hullo me old commo mate

    you seek fascists under the bed but look in all the wrong places – the only fascist with power in today’s world is inside the kremlin – a basically uneducated thug with criminal cunning who is driven by a search for self aggrandisement – one suspects a main reading is hitler and desire for living room for german speakers in greater germany. that and arms build up and bleitzreig – this man jails or kills his oppositions, and will tolerate no dissent – he is as close to a dictator as one knows in the western world – and you mr deblonay will make no criticism of your hero, and continue to spout pro putin propaganda for weeks on this place. errors in american interventions in past decade do not excuse putin – he is no answer to american excesses, and in this instance america has very very good reasons which you seem to ignore or misunderstand for getting involved in the ukraine – they have indeed helped stymie the great threat to world peace in decades –

  44. sustainable future

    re:the picture in the article

    https://theconversation.com/png-mateship-on-asylum-seekers-no-substitute-for-rigorous-policy-and-decent-conditions-24701

    Is it just me, or do others think abbott is getting that freaky plastic surgery/botox/hair dye look that you see more commonly in the US? I know it probably shouldn’t matter, but somehow it does – I see it a sign of an immature, vain, bull-shit artiste and superficial individual, who knows the real him is not very attractive.

  45. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    sustainable future@1652

    re:the picture in the article

    https://theconversation.com/png-mateship-on-asylum-seekers-no-substitute-for-rigorous-policy-and-decent-conditions-24701

    Is it just me, or do others think abbott is getting that freaky plastic surgery/botox/hair dye look that you see more commonly in the US? I know it probably shouldn’t matter, but somehow it does – I see it a sign of an immature, vain, bull-shit artiste and superficial individual, who knows the real him is not very attractive.

    Been at it since he was made LOTO, in my inexpert opinion. There have been a lot of sudden changes in his face and hair colour than can be explained by Mummy Nature. In fact I think Mummy Nature was expressing disapproval when she gave him that hunch-back.

  46. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    oops,
    ‘cannot’ be explained by Mother Nature.

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Tony Abbott: The Hunchback of Notre Sir&andDame.