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Seat of the week: Adelaide

Seat of the week returns after a few weeks on the back burner, with the focus remaining on South Australia.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the east and Malvern to the south. Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Kate Ellis. In keeping with statewide trends, the seat moved solidly to Labor in 2007 (by 7.2%), recorded little change in 2010 (a 0.8% Liberal swing), and swung to the Liberals in 2013 (reducing the margin from 7.5% to 3.6%).

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and its attendant “Catholic Right” faction, and is close to its powerful state figurehead, outgoing Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection for Adelaide at the age of 27 in 2004, following the late withdrawal of Tim Stanley, an industrial lawyer and later Supreme Court justice. Her path was smoothed by a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Ellis was promoted to the outer ministry at the age of 30 following the 2007 election victory, beating Paul Keating’s record as Labor’s youngest ever minister. Following the 2010 election she was reassigned from her portfolios of youth and sport to employment participation, childcare and the status of women, exchanging the latter for early childhood and youth when Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June 2013. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis was a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, making headlines shortly before Rudd’s February 2012 challenge by claiming Rudd had asked her and other SDA figures how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”. Following the 2013 election defeat she received a substantial promotion to shadow cabinet in the education portfolio.

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  • 501
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Dio:

    Is SA powering away from ‘do nothing’ as the safe word?

    No wonder they failed then.

  • 502
    paaptsef
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    I would hope so!

    So i’m trying to fathom why MH370 apparently was carrying over 2 hours worth. Mainly the economics of it.

  • 503
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    paaptsef

    Perhaps it was cheaper to load up in their home country than pay for what the Chinese asked for ?

  • 504
    paaptsef
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    poroti yes i mentioned that earlier

  • 505
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    SA is different. I lived in a the three eastern states as a kid (but I do not remember Qld much) and SA is nothing like them.

    Abbott would not know SA from a bar of soap and couldn’t care less, either. That we did understand.

  • 506
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    These pakis are killing us.

  • 507
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    TBH, I wouldn’t be that bothered by Marshall as Premier, if we had to have a Liberal government. In fact, if Rann was still Premier (or one of the Hard Rightists had succeeded him), I’d probably have voted for the Marshall Liberals over them (just as I would’ve if Izzy was still in.)

    But Weatherill’s a decent Premier and the Libs deserved to lose that election. It’s more than probable the Liberals will win the next one comfortably (although not necessarily the the NSW/Tas style landslide that some are already forecasting) – I do hope that the Libs don’t have an absolute reactionary dinosaur helming the ship for it.

  • 508
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    It’s a lack of convicts thang :) NSW has nae changed since the Run Corp.

  • 509
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Poroti re The Rum Corp and NSW
    __________
    How Australian..!!.the only coup in our history has been about Booze…(excluding Sir John Kerr’s coup of course)

  • 510
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    The earliest sporting riot in Australia was at the SCG (NSW) in 1879 when gamblers were angered up by a run out decision given by the umpire against a NSW batsman.

    The real reason for their anger – the umpire was Victorian (of course the other umpire was (Sir) Edmund Barton).

  • 511
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    deblonay

    excluding Sir John Kerr’s coup of course

    Boom tish :lol:

  • 512
    kevjohnno
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Have they identified any of the debris that has been found?

    Centre the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) provides regular media releases on the search at http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/ .

  • 513
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    NSW has a ‘proud’ tradition of dubious dealings and ‘colourful’ characters going back to the beginning – 226 years and counting. I always thought that song ‘we built this city on rock and roll’ – which I take to mean that the city was built on bulldust and dodgy dealings – could easily have referred to Sydney.

  • 514
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    If Steven Marshall wants to be Premier before 2017, I suggest that try to convince the independents that his would be a better Government for South Australia, unlike that fathead Abbott who thought that insults and bullying might work.

    Marshall has said that he is NOT in politics for the long haul. He will be gone within 1 year and it will be back to the Evans V Chapman V Martin Hamilton-Smith show.

  • 515
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Warner gorn second ball.

  • 516
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    FFS good work channel nine missing Warner’s wicket.
    Pathetic. Shut up Tubby.

  • 517
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Watson ….Gorn. Over number 1

  • 518
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    Great 2 for 8.
    Ha ha.
    Time for the weapon to step up.

  • 519
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    Henry

    Time to call John the Bookie ?

  • 520
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    The small mindedness of Abbott and his troll supporters is evidenced by his decision, and their support, to stop the payment to the orphans of Australian troops killed or disabled in the service of our country.

    The payment is a paltry $211 a year. Yet this amount is critical in addressing and ending the ‘age of entitlement’.

    Abbott is still subsidizing mining companies to the tune of $4 BILLION a year. The payment to the children of OUR Australian troops is a pittance in comparison.

  • 521
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Have faith in the weapon poroti!
    He averages 14 in T20!
    Oy vey!

  • 522
    Gary
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    I come here to read about politics and am recording the cricket for later watching and all I get is the bloody commentary on the cricket. Bye.

  • 523
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    AA

    The payment to the children of OUR Australian troops is a pittance in comparison.

    Payment to children orphaned due to decisions made by the government he was part of.

  • 524
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Look what we just finished building.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvDmrLVX-vY

  • 525
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    He will be gone within 1 year and it will be back to the Evans V Chapman V Martin Hamilton-Smith show.

    There must be someone else. After all this time in opposition I can’t believe the SA Libs can’t offer more than the same recycled has beens.

  • 526
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Gary

    Abbott vs S.A. voters clean bowled .

  • 527
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    AA @520: he is also subsidising leased car rorts at $1.8 billion per annum – that’s $180 pr annum per Australian household (about one third of a ‘carbon tax’). At one stage we were told this helps to support the Australian Car Manufacturing industry. Given that we won’t have one in a couple of years, and that even now it mostly supports leasing imported vehicles, the Opposition should insist that Abbott justify this largesses now that the ‘age of entitlement’ is ended.

  • 528
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    There must be someone else. After all this time in opposition I can’t believe the SA Libs can’t offer more than the same recycled has beens.

    But think about it, now the Liberals are saying to themselves that they will win easily in 2018, just like they said they would win easy in 2010 and 2014, but 2018 will be even easier!

    That will increase the desire for more leadership challenges because they will see 2018 as a great chance to become premier.

  • 529
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    Now if the Birdman steps up we might be ok…

  • 530
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Go the Big Show … Australia back in the game at 2/72 with Maxwell and Finch counter-attacking effectively

  • 531
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    I find it odd the T20 telecast doesn’t really show the overs gone.
    Don’t like that.

  • 532
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Fran, only James Brayshaw calls him the Big Show.
    and he is a ponce.
    To the rest he is The Weapon!!
    And he is killing it!!

  • 533
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    Oh Lordy! Beam ball!
    Pakis losing it.

  • 534
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Australia have scored 73 runs from the last 5 without conceding a wicket. Big Show hits fouth fastest 50 in T20 2/98 from 8 overs

  • 535
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    That will increase the desire for more leadership challenges because they will see 2018 as a great chance to become premier.

    Perhaps. But 4 years is a long time, and anything can happen in that period.

    I almost feel sorry for Marshall. His disappointment was evident on election night, and today he just looked absolutely shattered.

    Bring back Redmond! :D

  • 536
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Are we due a federal Newspoll tonight or tomorrow night?

  • 537
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    The Weapon just cruising it home, shouldn’t lose from here.

  • 538
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Lib MP says being a vegetarian is”un-australian” and plans a barbecue with a meat only in ACT..and will banish any”greens” from the table
    ___________________
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/steaking-a-claim-in-the-battle-to-banish-greens-20140321-358uj.html

  • 539
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Gary 522
    I am doing my best to provide you with something other than cricket

  • 540
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    We’re due a Newspoll, certainly. It’s been quite a while since they published one on a Sunday night.

  • 541
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Gary…a great piece from Churchill on his visit to the Crimea in 1945 for the Yalta Conference..from The Guardian

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/a-coup-in-crimea-or-in-russia/

  • 542
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Hard to see who’d make a decent replacement for Marshall outside of the Evans-Chapman-MHS triangle. Maybe Pisoni?

    Maybe Iain Evans and Vicki Chapman can vacate their seats for Olsen and Brown :lol:

  • 543
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Okay, so Newspoll tomorrow night then. Thanks, William.

  • 544
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Ah the Bug Show ended Maxwell out for 74 but it should be a match turning innings at 3/126 in the 12th with under 8 per over to win and Bailey to bat.

  • 545
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Ha … I called him Bug Show .., Ok Poroti, time for a Kiwi jibe …

  • 546
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    If we can talk about cricket we can talk about gardens and food

    This is a wonderful listing of 800 hundred herbs of all kinds and their uses’
    great stuff with some receipes.

    http://www.botanical.com/botanical/mgmh/comindx.html

  • 547
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Hmm match back in the balance… Bailey gone and run rate over 9 … Australia’s highest successful chase was against Pakistan (197)

    Absorbing …

  • 548
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Hodge falls to a screamer taken by Ajmal at deep point run rate over 10.5 now. Big overs needed.

  • 549
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    31 to win from 18 … Whoever wins, top contest.

  • 550
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Whoops Finch gone … Pakistan seem to have this. But can Haddin and perhaps Starc engineer a last over scramble? Let’s hope so.

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