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Seat of the week: Kingston

Seat of the week continues mopping up South Australia in the wake of the recent state election, this week visiting Amanda Rishworth’s southern suburbs seat of Kingston.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

A traditionally marginal seat that has strengthened considerably for Labor over the past decade, Kingston covers the outer southern coastal suburbs of Adelaide, from Hallett Cove through Port Noarlunga to Sellicks Beach, and extends inland at its northern end to Happy Valley and Morphett Vale. When created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 it was based further north around Glenelg and Brighton, its then southernmost suburb of Hallett Cove being the only area still in the electorate today. Glenelg was hived off to since-abolished Hawker in 1984, and Brighton was absorbed by Boothby in the rearrangement caused by Hawker’s abolition in 1993.

Kingston had a notional Labor margin of 6.8% upon its creation, but the landslide that ejected the Chifley government from office saw the defeat of their candidate Thomas Sheehy, who had been the member for Boothby since 1943. Pat Galvin won the seat for Labor in 1951, and retained it on variable margins until 1966. It was then caught up in the statewide convulsions of 1966 and 1969, which produced double-digit swings first to Liberal and then to Labor in both Kingston specifically and South Australia as a whole. The Liberals thus held the seat for one term before it returned emphatically to Labor with Richard Gun’s victory in 1969. Kingston subsequently changed hands with the next three changes of government, being held during the Fraser years by Grant Chapman (later to return as a Senator in 1987), during the Hawke years by Gordon Bilney, and for the first term of the Howard government by Susan Jeanes. However, Jeanes did not emerge from the 1996 victory with enough fat on her margin to withstand the GST backlash of 1998, when Labor’s David Cox prevailed by 763 votes on the back of a 2.5% swing.

David Cox held the seat for Labor for two terms in opposition before suffering defeat in 2004 by a margin of 119 votes, having been handicapped by the electorate’s acquisition of the McLaren Vale area in the redistribution caused by the reduction in South Australia’s representation from 12 seats to 11. There followed a swing to the Liberals of 1.4%, which was precisely what Liberal candidate Kym Richardson required to win the seat. However, Richardson’s narrow win gave him no buffer to protect himself against the move to Labor at the 2007 election, although the 4.5% swing was below the South Australian average.

The seat has since been held for Labor by Amanda Rishworth, who achieved the best result of any Labor member at the 2010 election in picking up a 9.5% swing. She was assisted in some degree when Kym Richardson’s comeback bid was scuttled after it emerged he was the subject of a police investigation into allegations he had impersonated a police officer as he sought to have a hotel manager withdraw an allegation of assault against his son. Police did not proceed with a charge of impersonating a police officer as the statute of limitations had expired, and he was eventually acquitted on a charge of attempting to pervert the course of justice. Going into the 2013 election she received a 0.9% boost when the redistribution caused McLaren Vale to be moved back into Mayo, a consequence of the electorate’s population growth. The subsequent swing against her was 4.9%, well in line with a statewide result of 5.5% and leaving her with a secure margin of 9.7%.

Prior to entering parliament, Rishworth was a psychologist and an organiser for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, which dominates the state party’s Right faction. She won promotion in March 2013 to parliamentary secretary for sustainability and disabilities, and was reassigned to the health portfolio following the September 2013 election defeat.

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  • 51
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    Victoria 37

    Thanks :)

    On happier topics, the rebuilt Adelaide Oval seemed to work very well yesterday, as did the new footbridge across to the city. I think they have done a good job. I am glad Weatherall survived as premier long enough to take some of the credit.

    Have a good day all.

  • 52
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    socrates

    Cool. We are roughly on the same page in the rest. I do think DTT showed a way it might work with the points system idea.

    As long as its excluding those who are trying to fake being a refugee I along with most Australians I suspect will be happy.

    It would be humane as you would not have the LNP being “tough” for political gain on boats

  • 53
    Dee
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    Glory

    We can only comment on how the government is travelling now and speculate over what might happen if the government cannot get any traction and their polling further erodes.

    A long way to go and the Coalition are masters at rabbit in the hat tricks.

  • 54
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    Guytaur 52

    Agreed. DTT summed it up well from a social justice viewpoint. The points system has merit, just like for skilled migrants, because unfortunately there will always be more in need than we can house.

  • 55
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    Enjoy the day too

  • 56
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    None of these flakes on Insiders will bring up addressing tax loopholes for high-end earners when discussing ‘repairing the budget’.

  • 57
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    While I doubt that the next election will be a referendum on “knights and dames” this issue has the potential to frame many of the regime’s other policies as the outcome of a desire to protect and enlarge arbitrary privilege. Given that this will almost certainly be a consequence of regime policy the confluence is dangerous.

    Knights and dames offers a thread running through regime activity that is also a running joke. For a regime that came to power in large part through populist angst, this could prove very corrosive of popular support as people who jumped ship in September begin to take key issues seriously.

    The coextensive arrival of the “right to be a bigot” issue underlines how reliant the regime is on populism, but knights and dames and “the end of the age of entitlement” is a murky mix for your average low information voter to process.

  • 58
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    So the plan is sell-off public assets to build more tollways that hits lower-middle income earners the most.

    Another GST-by-stealth.

  • 59
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    Fran to read your posts you have to look past your use of the word regime; why devalue your excellent posts?

    regime

    Modern usage

    While the word regime originates as a synonym for any form of government, modern usage often gives the term a negative connotation, implying an authoritarian government or dictatorship.

  • 60
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    So we’ll have Abbotts PPL GST-by-stealth, Abbotts tollway GST-by-stealth, and most likely a hike/broadening of the official GST.

    Basically, the conservatives are shifting the tax burden more to lower-middle income earners… a wealth redistribution to the well-off.

  • 61
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    So will Bill Shorten and the ALP create a simple to understand narrative that brings this conservative GST-by-stealth multiple agenda to light ???

  • 62
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    And no, an architect from Iran is not a refugee, and should be applying for a skilled entry visa, except that we are already oversupplied with architects. His killers should face justice, but that is a different issue.

    The website for the consulate in Iran advises that applications for a skilled migrant visa must be lodged in Adelaide.

  • 63
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Rex Douglas

    Here is a thought

    Perhaps you could email Shorten and ask him

    http://billshorten.com.au

  • 64
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Thanks victoria, I’m sure the ALP brains trust are onto it.

  • 65
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    gaytaur @17,

    Yes, I was thinking myself that the Senate could make Abbott look weak and ineffective. But I’ve yet to see a proper debate here as to exactly who would vote which way.

    Take the CEFC for an example. What makes you think it would survive?

    To my reckoning the WA Senate result could or should go 3-2-1. Now that would mean that you’d need two cross bench Senators as well as Labor+Green to block legislation.

    Now with the CEFC, who would that be? And even if the CEFC can’t be legislated out of existence, won’t Abbott then try other methods including good old fashioned bullying to stop it doing its business?

    My big hope for the Senate is that fraudband will come to grief there. But again, which two Senators and on exactly what propositions? If the Liberals were mad enough to pursue a deal with Telstra, the outcome will assuredly need legislation/regulation. Very likely the Liberals will want to do things like water down the ACCC. I doubt that would go down well. The wild card is the Liberals attempting to fire sale NBNco. Does that require legislation or not? The existing law (NBN Corporations Act) forbids NBNco from acting in a way that amounts to reducing the government’s ownership. However, you have to wonder how mean and tricky Abbott/Turnbull could be. Maybe they would order NBNco to sell off assets to the point that NBNco becomes nothing but a pot of cash. They then just issue a dividend and they’re left sitting there, still a company, but without assets or cash and nothing to do. I wouldn’t put it past this bunch.

  • 66
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    My God, Kevin Andrews shows us that he can count, good work Chap !!!!

  • 67
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Correction, make that the good Sir Kevin

  • 68
    Gary
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Thanks victoria, I’m sure the ALP brains trust are onto it.

    Not according to your posts of late. Very scathing of the ALP brains trust.

  • 69
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    CudChewer #65:

    Abbott and Hunt have already tried bullying the CEFC out of performing its statutory functions. The CEFC politely told them to get stuffed. I suppose that the govt could play budgetary games though.

  • 70
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    It pretty damn crook when the L/NP gov’t has to call a presser to announce they are continuing the previous ALP govt’s funding of a homelessness program.

    As if that is a major achievement.

    Or tragically, perhaps it is?

  • 71
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    To be honest Gary, I have the same concerns. I don’t know if emailing shorten gets you anywhere. Or in fact who in the ALP to write to or (lets be old fashioned) call. And they don’t exactly advertise and say “we have a team of advisors who will listen carefully and this will actually be discussed with the relevant Minister and we’ll get back to you and let you know what we think”.

    Why doesn’t Labor take the simple expedient of having a blog, facebook page or whatever, where you can have a public discussion with them and people who know what they’re talking about actually write back.

  • 72
    Frodo Baggins
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    101 Days Boat Free… just in time for the WA Senate election.

  • 73
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Abbott and Hunt have already tried bullying the CEFC out of performing its statutory functions. The CEFC politely told them to get stuffed. I suppose that the govt could play budgetary games though.

    MY understanding was the CEFC was stopped from doing any new deals by this kind of bullying (still going ahead with existing deals) and that they are reduced to pleading and lobbying.

    Question is, if the CEFC gets a reprieve by the Senate, will they go back to business, or will they still be bullied by Abbott?

  • 74
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Hi marrickville mauler

    On another topic. What are your thoughts on ICAC?

  • 75
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    I have some serious proposals regarding high speed rail (I’m an engineer by training). I also submitted a lengthy report to the previous HSR study.

    Now tell me, who the heck in Labor could I talk to? Not just tell me they’ve received my email but actually consider what is a detailed and complex proposal?

  • 76
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    cud chewer

    Palmer is against the Carbon Price. Renewable energy is a different matter. Its something he might make money out of.

    Xenophon will be for it. Not sure of others but I suspect its only one vote Labor and the Greens need to find.

    If the Hemp person gets up I think the CEFC is assured.

    No actual knowledge just that I think people have focused on Palmer wanting carbon price repeal. Withe the Mining tax he is playing games.

    With renewable energy target and renewable finance I am not so sure. He may be accommodating his Senators and knows that the long term future of coal exports is on a downward trend as countries like China import less of it.

  • 77
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    cud chewer

    Contact Albo

    http://anthonyalbanese.com.au

  • 78
    Frodo Baggins
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    "If the boats really have “stopped”, then so has the issue. In 2016 if boats are a distant memory, all Labor has to say is “we won’t change the current successful policies”. "

    November 23, 2007
    Rudd said Labor would take asylum-seekers who had been rescued from leaky boats to Christmas Island, would turn back seaworthy vessels containing such people on the high seas, and would not lift the current intake of African refugees.

    “You’d turn them back,” he said of boats approaching Australia, emphasising that Labor believed in an “orderly immigration system” enforced by deterrence.

    “You cannot have anything that is orderly if you allow people who do not have a lawful visa in this country to roam free,” he said. “That’s why you need a detention system. I know that’s politically contentious, but one follows from the other.

    “Deterrence is effective through the detention system but also your preparedness to take appropriate action as the vessels approach Australian waters on the high seas.”

    ——

    Labor then spent the next 6 Years telling us you can’t turn them back.

    Whats Bill Shortens position on turn backs anyone know? And more importantly will anyone believe them? Labor have this bad habit of saying one thing before the election and then doing the complete opposite after.

  • 79
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    Angus houston has been tasked to co ordinate the search of fhe missing plane.

  • 80
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    victoria,

    I’ve been reluctant to use that email address because of the fear that all I will get is “hi, we’ve received your email”.. and see nothing of it. Does anyone know whether he (Albo) actually takes such emails seriously?

  • 81
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    @Frodo/72

    Actually That is wrong, showed one a couple 54 days ago.

  • 82
    Christian Paterson
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    I think the idea that that we can just assume “an architect from Iran” is not a refugee is wrong. Who knows what persecution might have been applied

  • 83
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    @76,

    My understanding is that if the WA senate rerun goes 3-2-1 Liberal, Labor, Green then Labor+Green will end up with 36 in the Senate. Which means they need 2 Senators (down from 3, which would have been the result had the previous counts stood).

  • 84
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    Frodo

    Morrison is so confident he approved getting more lifeboats.

  • 85
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    101 Days Boat Free… just in time for the WA Senate election.

    One of their main issues possibly resolved, out of the way so that other things can be concentrated on by the punters: like knighthoods, education, health and pension cutbacks, broken promises, bigotry enshrined in legislation, drought, mass sackings, declining revenue, a coming austerity budget and much much more.

    Don’t expect the WA electorate to be grateful for the boats slowing down for more than about three minutes. They weren’t grateful for Labor’s anti-GFC policies either.

    The prosperity Labor preserved, the jobs saved, the money in people’s pockets, only gave the punters a chance to quibble around the edges, or to whinge about some other issue altogether.

    The Coalition is running the line that the promise kept on Boats can be automatically transferred to all their other promises.

    The punters will know different.

  • 86
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    cud

    Others here can tell you that is less likely now according to Newspoll WA results. Less likely because MOE is about 8%

    However I was looking at it assuming two votes needed. Xenophon likely to support CEFC. So therefore only one vote needed to get

  • 87
    Dee
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    The website for the consulate in Iran advises that applications for a skilled migrant visa must be lodged in Adelaide.

    You use the agent in Iran who liaison with registered Iranian migration agents here in Australia, of which there are quite a few.

    He was educated and as far as we know, not running from persecution. Quite capable young man. Without evidence of persecution, there doesn’t seem to be any logical explanation on why he chose the boat route.

    Iranian Clients

    Australian Migration and Visa Solutions have accredited representative offices worldwide. Our representatives are selected for their professionalism and sound business history. Clients should be advised that while representatives will liaise with clients, all migration work will be completed by registered migration agents in Australia.

    We have one official representative office in Iran - in Tehran.

    TEHRAN

    Office details are;

    Tel: 98 21 8879 8951/98 21 8888 1209/ 98 21 8888-1867
    Fax: as above
    Australian Migration and Visa Solutions and Hamid Azari
    1146 Vali-Asr Avenue, Apt #15
    Tehran

  • 88
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    Someone ought to tell Palmer that the NBN (the real one) is good for business.

  • 89
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    cud chewer

    There is no harm in trying. Remember Albo is the shadow infrastructure MInister. He has more time on his hands now

  • 90
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    Angus houston has been tasked to co ordinate the search of fhe missing plane.

    They’re getting more desperate by the day.

    They promised WA they’d deliver a plane full of bodies, plus a black box, in time for the election and it still hasn’t happened.

    Concolence motions, gravitas, talking heads standing in front of grey colored aircraft looking sombre, and our Glorious Fly Boys On Parade are starting to wear thin.

    Who doesn’t now groan when yet another “Wreckage has been sighted” story hits the nightly news? We all know they’ll go out looking for it, but not find a trace of it. So far, at least.

    A thousand kilometres here, a thousand there. No wait a minute, a thousand somewhere else too. All that detritus has turned into thin air.

    The Great Abbott Showcase hasn’t turned in a result yet.

    Satellite photos from days ago are being used. Why not current (i.e. today’s) satellite photos. IF there was a war or other military operation in progress, they’d have the prints still wet from the darkroom on the table in five minutes, not five days. It can be done. But it isn’t being done.

    There’s a big tease on, that’s why. Something is up and we’re clearly not hearing the full story.

  • 91
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    YB,

    Mr Wilson, does that mean I also have the right to refer to you as a “fag hag” ?

    Not sure that means quite what you think it means… but I will say it’s not the exact words that are the problem. Bolt, for example, didn’t use “nigger”, yet still fell foul of the law, because he was claiming, falsely, that people were choosing to identify as Aboriginal for personal profit.

    I don’t really see what we gain from blanket bans on such words. Say, if someone calls a dark-skinned (or even light-skinned) coworker “ma nigga”. It’s really about intention, more than anything.

  • 92
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    BB

    Earlie report on radio was that the wreckage found so far is not the plane. I must admit to being somewhat bemused by it all. For goodness sake,we supposedly went to the moon and back in 1969, with none of the technology we have today

  • 93
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    There is no harm in trying. Remember Albo is the shadow infrastructure MInister. He has more time on his hands now

    Albo was also responsible for a deeply flawed process in the HSR study and I fear he may have too much of a stake in it to listen. The real question is whether he’s prepared to think outside the box.

  • 94
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    bugler

    Thats why the law doesn’t ban a word. What it bans is belittling of people and making out they are less than they are.

    A good example is gay. Anyone can say they feel gay if they want to use it in the old way. It’s not banned.

    To say that’s so gay is a form of belittling as it means bad wrong in that context

  • 95
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    victoria,

    You know the upside of this plane crash is that we’ll have a better understanding of ocean garbage :/

  • 96
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:28 am | Permalink

    And I think the WA Voters have more important things in their minds, such as Economy and Jobs, and finally, GST Carve up being smallest in the country for WA.

    Being highest Unemployment in the country and all.

  • 97
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    Earlie report on radio was that the wreckage found so far is not the plane. I must admit to being somewhat bemused by it all.

    “Diego Garcia” scenario looking better every day.

  • 98
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    cud chewer

    It appears that it is difficult to differentiate ocean garbage to bits of a missing plane.

    I should also mention that the Malyasian transport minister stated last night, that they have not given up hope of finding survivors?!!!! Really??!!!

  • 99
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Guytaur,

    Certainly. I’m not a big fan of using overly… precocious… language, but I don’t think banning certain words serves any merit. But not using “bad words” doesn’t mean you can’t be any less nasty, belittling, intimidating or wrong. Maybe that’s the point Wilson was getting at… but from the article it seems it’s a subtlety of argument his ideology prevents him from engaging in. He made it about specific words being “reclaimed” without so much as discussing intentions. I’ve seen publications use the word “nigger” and “chink” with no repercussions from the RDA because it depends entirely on the context that they were written (albeit asterisked out as). They’re more likely to be pulled up by the self-regulated media authority

  • 100
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    BB

    I have heard so many theories, and believe the most logical scenario is that the plane crashed into the ocean. Having said that, the way this whole saga has been managed is very curious, and i am a little suspicious

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