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Federal Election 2016

Mar 30, 2014

Seat of the week: Kingston

Seat of the week continues mopping up South Australia in the wake of the recent state election, this week visiting Amanda Rishworth's southern suburbs seat of Kingston.

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Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

A traditionally marginal seat that has strengthened considerably for Labor over the past decade, Kingston covers the outer southern coastal suburbs of Adelaide, from Hallett Cove through Port Noarlunga to Sellicks Beach, and extends inland at its northern end to Happy Valley and Morphett Vale. When created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 it was based further north around Glenelg and Brighton, its then southernmost suburb of Hallett Cove being the only area still in the electorate today. Glenelg was hived off to since-abolished Hawker in 1984, and Brighton was absorbed by Boothby in the rearrangement caused by Hawker’s abolition in 1993.

Kingston had a notional Labor margin of 6.8% upon its creation, but the landslide that ejected the Chifley government from office saw the defeat of their candidate Thomas Sheehy, who had been the member for Boothby since 1943. Pat Galvin won the seat for Labor in 1951, and retained it on variable margins until 1966. It was then caught up in the statewide convulsions of 1966 and 1969, which produced double-digit swings first to Liberal and then to Labor in both Kingston specifically and South Australia as a whole. The Liberals thus held the seat for one term before it returned emphatically to Labor with Richard Gun’s victory in 1969. Kingston subsequently changed hands with the next three changes of government, being held during the Fraser years by Grant Chapman (later to return as a Senator in 1987), during the Hawke years by Gordon Bilney, and for the first term of the Howard government by Susan Jeanes. However, Jeanes did not emerge from the 1996 victory with enough fat on her margin to withstand the GST backlash of 1998, when Labor’s David Cox prevailed by 763 votes on the back of a 2.5% swing.

David Cox held the seat for Labor for two terms in opposition before suffering defeat in 2004 by a margin of 119 votes, having been handicapped by the electorate’s acquisition of the McLaren Vale area in the redistribution caused by the reduction in South Australia’s representation from 12 seats to 11. There followed a swing to the Liberals of 1.4%, which was precisely what Liberal candidate Kym Richardson required to win the seat. However, Richardson’s narrow win gave him no buffer to protect himself against the move to Labor at the 2007 election, although the 4.5% swing was below the South Australian average.

The seat has since been held for Labor by Amanda Rishworth, who achieved the best result of any Labor member at the 2010 election in picking up a 9.5% swing. She was assisted in some degree when Kym Richardson’s comeback bid was scuttled after it emerged he was the subject of a police investigation into allegations he had impersonated a police officer as he sought to have a hotel manager withdraw an allegation of assault against his son. Police did not proceed with a charge of impersonating a police officer as the statute of limitations had expired, and he was eventually acquitted on a charge of attempting to pervert the course of justice. Going into the 2013 election she received a 0.9% boost when the redistribution caused McLaren Vale to be moved back into Mayo, a consequence of the electorate’s population growth. The subsequent swing against her was 4.9%, well in line with a statewide result of 5.5% and leaving her with a secure margin of 9.7%.

Prior to entering parliament, Rishworth was a psychologist and an organiser for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, which dominates the state party’s Right faction. She won promotion in March 2013 to parliamentary secretary for sustainability and disabilities, and was reassigned to the health portfolio following the September 2013 election defeat.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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382 comments

382 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Kingston

  1. kezza2

    You really are a Slave aren’t you, G?

    Trying to convince Roger Miller he meant “stubbed” instead of ‘stabbed’.

    Twat.

    And instead of saying, oops, got that wrong, you try to convince us all that, it’s okay, stubbed = stabbed.

    It’s not okay.

    Miller’s exactly right. If it happened to Abbott,it would be orderly, given the sheepen stupidity of of the CPG.

    If it happened to Shorten, it would be business as usual, by the CPG.

    Why don’t you waken yourself up to the bias of the CPG. You probably can’t see it for the forest.

  2. deblonay

    Abbott may have problems re Gas
    _________________________
    The main gas suppliers in this country would be happy to dismiss the domestic market and sell direct to overseas markets notably China.who hsve s huge appetite for gas for industry and domestic use
    Unless Abbott moves to secure our gas supplies there may be a lot of trouble ahead for consurmers… and unless the gas companies are allowed to hike their prices they may play rather dirty poll

    The media recently looked at the closure in Sydney of a major glass factory which found gas prices so high as to cut their profit margin greatly

    In the same area ,the usually reliable “Asia Times” is reporting( SEE BELOW) what may be the biggest gas deal in history now looming when Putin visits China in May
    The Chinese plan to buy a Trillion dollars worth of Russian gas over the next 10 years,and raise their already huge usage by 25%
    They and the Russians plan to make the deal in rubles and yuan and no longer use the US dollar…which will be a big nlow to the US dollar on the markets

    “Asia Times”comments on what it calls “Pipelineistan” ..that network of pipelines spread across the 5 Central Asian states..and which will link Russia and China in the biggest deal in history…much bigger than…”North Stream “the new line betwen Russia and Germany along the Baltic seabed,and a similar new one…Southstream… across the Black Sea to the Balkan states who are all energy poor

    Does Abbott have much understanding of these vast events now underway
    Australia like Iran,Qatar and Russia is a major gas producer, but

    what are his policies for domestic consumers rights

  3. deblonay

    Abbott may have problems re Gas
    _________________________
    The main gas suppliers in this country would be happy to dismiss the domestic market and sell direct to overseas markets notably China.who hsve s huge appetite for gas for industry and domestic use
    Unless Abbott moves to secure our gas supplies there may be a lot of trouble ahead for consurmers… and unless the gas companies are allowed to hike their prices they may play rather dirty poll

    The media recently looked at the closure in Sydney of a major glass factory which found gas prices so high as to cut their profit margin greatly

    In the same area ,the usually reliable “Asia Times” is reporting( SEE BELOW) what may be the biggest gas deal in history now looming when Putin visits China in May
    The Chinese plan to buy a Trillion dollars worth of Russian gas over the next 10 years,and raise their already huge usage by 25%
    They and the Russians plan to make the deal in rubles and yuan and no longer use the US dollar…which will be a big nlow to the US dollar on the markets

    “Asia Times”comments on what it calls “Pipelineistan” ..that network of pipelines spread across the 5 Central Asian states..and which will link Russia and China in the biggest deal in history…much bigger than…”North Stream “the new line betwen Russia and Germany along the Baltic seabed,and a similar new one…Southstream… across the Black Sea to the Balkan states who are all energy poor

    Does Abbott have much understanding of these vast events now underway
    Australia like Iran,Qatar and Russia is a major gas producer, but

    what are his policies for domestic consumers rights??

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-02-270314.html

  4. William Bowe

    [You really are a Slave aren’t you, G?

    Trying to convince Roger Miller he meant “stubbed” instead of ‘stabbed’.

    Twat.

    And instead of saying, oops, got that wrong, you try to convince us all that, it’s okay, stubbed = stabbed.

    It’s not okay.]

    Kezza, are you being funny here intentionally?

  5. fredex

    [confessions
    Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink
    The ABbott govt takes credit for another Labor initiative implemented when it was in government.
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22255682/govt-pledges-115m-for-homeless/%5D

    But … Abbott has cut the grant by $44 million.
    That’s around a 30% decrease.

  6. kezza2

    Of course.

    Spelling’s such a bugger.

  7. Bushfire Bill

    It all seemed so easy. Instant notoriety for Oerth: the center of the plane search and all those weeping relatives on the world’s TV screens that night.

    Tourism, glamour,national parliamentary condolence motions, dramatic interviews in front of Poseidon sub hunters, handsome young wing commanders…

    Except…

    Rather than descending on Perth to be closer to the search for the missing flight MH370, dozens of Chinese relatives of those on board the plane have flown to Kuala Lumpur to remonstrate with the Malaysian government.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/chinese-relatives-flock-to-malaysia-for-answers-on-mh370-20140330-35rgb.html#ixzz2xRsb3ofC

    and…

    Finding the black box flight recorder of the missing Malaysia Airlines passenger jet is simply ”untenable” as things stand at the moment, the US Navy officer who will lead the search has conceded.

    While many objects have been picked up by the vessels in the past two days, none of them have been identified as part of MH370.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/mh370-search-captain-mark-matthews-paints-pessimistic-assessment-of-black-box-search-20140330-35rrs.html#ixzz2xRtkVtSS

    Dear, dear… and with a WA Senate by-election due too.

    Of course, it’s probably still in a hanger on Diego Garcia.

  8. Henry

    BB all due respect mate, the bloody plane is lying on an ocean bed somewhere.

  9. Rossmore

    Bushfire … love your work generally, but the 370 at the US airbase Diego Garcia is a conspiracy too far.

  10. geoffrey

    for deblonay (the old russophile who must be sleeping and dreaming on russian Lebensraum ridding corrupted western europe once and for all of fascism – for what worth i have been saying below for weeks – this is after all a site/blog about electoral processes — comment not mine below but of interest

    ——————
    also don’t think the issue with Crimea is done either. Russia may have it for now but I serious doubts about their ability to hold on to it. According to leaked FSB data only 34.2% of Crmieans actually voted in the so called “referendum” which is far below the 50% threshold that was required for it to even be adopted. This data is being vetted by the honorable Mustafa Dzhemilev and is consistent with all polling of the region since Ukraine’s independence which never showed majority support for unity with Russia.

  11. geoffrey

    o no deblonay alive – …

    so, more. today putin rings obama. now who fears who? i think prospect of sanctions bite … and would never trust putin to pour milk. interesting few days

  12. geoffrey

    deblonay

    1) do you want putin to annex all or part of ukraine?
    2) would you support russian annexation of any other territory?
    3) do you identify any what you term fascist elements in russia?
    4) if yes to 3) more or less than western europe?

  13. kezza2

    Well, you can keep me company while I track my kids on TUI63M.

    Should land at Munich within the hour – and a bit.

    http://www.flightradar24.com/TUI63M/30090ac

    Regarding the lost Malaysian Flight.

    Jeez it’s hard not to go with BB, given his straight-shootin’ up till now.

    Still, I wonder why they think it’s in the Indian Ocean. I guess it’s because there’s been no sight of it anywhere else.

  14. Jolyon Wagg

    Rossmore and Henry,

    I think you will find that BB is taking the piss with the whole Diego Garcia thing.

  15. Thomas. Paine.

    That they acted as though they found likely debris given guessed flight paths and durations and speed an altitude, a total wild guess…beggars belief. total BS.

    Got to wonder at the value of JORN if it couldn’t identify and have a track for this..then what is its purpose…likewise the US spy facility…nothing?

    Awaiting a stories of ghosts planes like ghost ships…flying around…

  16. kezza2

    Jolyon Wagg

    [I think you will find that BB is taking the piss with the whole Diego Garcia thing.]

    Nyeh. I thought that at first, ndt at second, and at third. But to keep on, is that really taking the piss.

    Or hoping to take the piss, when it all goes awry?

    Dunno.

    It’s a good theory, though.

    Cos not a lot of else is making much sense.

    Except for another ‘ghost ride’ a la hypoxia.

  17. Thomas. Paine.

    I the thing is in the Indian ocean according to the current theory then the chances of finding it are nil….since the likely crash site could be just about anywhere.

  18. kezza2

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 46 secs
    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-3) ALP 52 (+3) #auspol
    Expand

  19. geoffrey

    kezza2 – he’s the PM who just keeps on giving.

  20. kezza2

    Just crossed Lake Geneva. Not long now to Munich. 400km @ 457 knots.

    I’m not a warrior, but a worrier.

  21. MsAdventure

    Kezza
    I always do the same when my daughter travels by plane.

  22. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 7m

    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-3) ALP 52 (+3) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 6m

    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (-3) ALP 36 (+1) GRN 12 (+2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m

    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Abbott: Approve 38 (-5) Disapprove 49 (+9) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Shorten: Approve 35 (-3) Disapprove 39 (+14) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Preferred PM: Abbott 41 (-3) Shorten 36 (+4) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Federal 2PP in WA: L/NP 54 (-4.3 from election) ALP 46 (+4.3) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes now

    #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Federal Primaries in WA: L/NP 46 (-5.2 from election) ALP 29 (+0.2) GRN 15 (+5.3) Others 10 (-0.3) #auspol

  23. zoidlord

    Interesting that Greens have a big come back in WA.

  24. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 14s

    The #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly tables: http://bit.ly/1kbg9eA #auspol

  25. geoffrey

    why is alp so low in WA with good fed results?
    and why greens hight indeed?

    any saturday rethinks?

  26. kezza2

    Ms Adventure

    Eh gad. I know I’m silly, but it feels like I keep the plane in the air, while I’m watching. Dopey, or what?

    The kids think I’m crazy, but they like that I’m watching out for them, too.

    Nearly had a heart attack last week when the plane ‘disappeared’ nine kms out from the airport on Gran Canaria.

    Thankfully the airport said plane had landed within a few minutes of it doing so.

    Can’t imagine what it would have been like trying to track the lost Malaysain one, though.

    I’d be clinging on to any hope whatsoever.

    Thanks for understanding.

  27. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 18s

    #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 ALP 50 #auspol

  28. imacca

    Wow. 4.3 swing against the Libs in W.A. according to GWV. Roll on Saturday. 🙂

  29. Tom the first and best

    355

    That is good for Ludlam`s re-election hopes.

  30. leon

    The search for missing flight MH370 has revealed that the Indian Ocean is full of shit. Unfortunately all that has been recovered is flotsam. No jetsam as yet.

  31. Leroy Lynch

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/liberals-rebound-in-the-west-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226869270433#
    [Liberals rebound in the West: Newspoll
    Dennis Shanahan, Political Editor
    The Australian March 31, 2014 12:00AM

    THE Coalition and the Greens have experienced a dramatic recovery in electoral support in Western Australia at the expense of Labor as all three face a crucial battle in the Senate election.

    Support for “others’’ — including the Palmer United Party — has fallen in the first three months of the year, leaving the West Australian Senate re-election even more complicated ahead of Saturday’s poll.]

    http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2014/03/30/1226869/270295-6ead3440-b7ff-11e3-a264-cacd3e0700b0.jpg

    http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2014/03/30/1226869/270323-9d0fd8ec-b7ff-11e3-a264-cacd3e0700b0.jpg

    http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2014/03/30/1226869/270400-7f668886-b7ff-11e3-a264-cacd3e0700b0.jpg

    http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2014/03/30/1226869/272145-5c98861a-b7ff-11e3-a264-cacd3e0700b0.jpg

  32. Roger Miller

    WA Primaries,ALP Greens.
    Joe Bullock, Scot Ludlam.

  33. zoidlord

    @Leroy/363

    What planet are they on?

  34. imacca

    Ludlam will be pleased with that polling then. Greens up quite a bit.

  35. geoffrey

    why are glaxy newspoll so divergent – o because newspoll is three montly. so galaxy better predictor for sat. interesting

  36. kezza2

    geoffrey

    [he’s the PM who just keeps on giving.]

    Wish he’d start being the PM who started giving, instead of keeping on taking.

    Even though he reminds me of my larrikin brother, who really doesn’t have a thought in his head, other than what’s the next practical joke, I was hoping for something better than this bullcrap.

    I should’ve known better. Can’t make a silk purse etc.

  37. confessions

    [Support for “others’’ — including the Palmer United Party — has fallen in the first three months of the year, leaving the West Australian Senate re-election even more complicated ahead of Saturday’s poll.]

    😆

    How is it more complicated to have established parties at the forefront of Senate re-election than never-before-heard-of parties and individuals we ‘got’ at the last election?

    Honestly, the Australian needs to get itself laid.

  38. GhostWhoVotes

    The primary votes for the Galaxy poll are probably L/NP 43 ALP 37 GRN 10.

    http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2014/03/30/1226869/253274-hockey-nightmare.jpg

  39. kezza2

    confessions

    Well, I hope the sexist ‘Sports’ party doesn’t get up.

    Get a load of this:

    [The Australian Sports Party should apologise for a Facebook photo featuring a topless woman jogging, a women’s rights group says.

    The picture is accompanied by an anecdote about the woman, described as “voluptuous” and a “babe”, who is running with a sign around her neck saying, “If you catch me, you can have me”.]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/technology/a/22243047/apology-sought-over-australian-sports-partys-topless-facebook-photo/

    Are blokes ever going to get it? I’m guessing that should be Wayne Dropkick. 😆

  40. Leroy Lynch

    Ghost says the TPP of this weekend poll is 50-50, although the online graphic seems stuffed at the moment. I think in the new poll column the two digits are over each other.
    Primaries look like LNP 43, ALP 37, GRN 10, Other 10?

    http://www.news.com.au/national/nightmare-at-treasury-place-only-34-per-cent-of-people-would-support-the-government-slashing-welfare-spending-new-galaxy-poll-reveals/story-fncynjr2-1226869241967
    [Nightmare at Treasury Place: only 34 per cent of people would support the Government slashing welfare spending, new Galaxy Poll reveals
    1 hour ago March 31, 2014 12:00AM
    exclusive simon benson national political editor
    The Daily Telegraph

    TREASURER Joe Hockey is facing a budget nightmare with an overwhelming majority of voters calling for welfare spending to be spared the axe despite new warnings from Treasury that he may have to cut even deeper.

    An exclusive Galaxy Poll commissioned by the Daily Telegraph has revealed only 34 per cent of people would support the Government slashing welfare spending as part of its austerity drive.

    A 56 per cent majority of voters were against welfare cuts in the budget while 10 per cent were uncommitted.]

  41. cud chewer

    Does anyone now think the WA Senate rerun won’t return 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green ?

  42. kezza2

    50kms @ 277 knots.

    Not long now.

  43. Tom the first and best

    371

    I am lead to believe that the Sports Party`s preference position is quite as advantageous as last September. Apparently it is hemp that is in best position to snow ball.

  44. confessions

    kezza:

    I’m pretty sure most WA voters hadn’t heard of the Sports Party until the Senate results from the last election became known.

  45. deblonay

    The Australian editors certainly how how to write a biased headline favoring the Libs…
    such mastery of the language even when the Govt isn’t doing well

  46. kezza2

    The eagle has landed. Phew!

  47. Kevin Bonham

    The welfare funding results in the Galaxy are encouraging, at least for those with my view that government is often too stingy to welfare recipients as it is. Even with the question framed in the form “Do you accept…” still only a 34-56 result for welfare spending cuts.

  48. zoidlord

    @Kevin/379

    Depends on the cuts, School Kids Bonus, or welfare cuts like Disability Pension?

  49. Otiose

    → → #Auspol 31/03/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy http://bit.ly/1dshYVy