tip off

Galaxy: 50-50 (plus quarterly Newspoll breakdowns)

The first Galaxy poll since the federal election finds nothing in it, while Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns suggest the swing is weakest in the state where voters head to the polls on Saturday.

The Daily Telegraph has results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention showing the two major parties tied on two-party preferred, and while the accompanying graphic is spoiled by a production error, it’s clear enough the primary vote results are 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. It also finds 56% opposed to cuts in welfare spending against only 34% in support. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 998. The Australian also brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates of voting intention broken down by state, gender, age cohorts and capitals-versus-regionals, which have Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 54-46 in South Australia, and trailing 51-49 in Queensland and 54-46 in Western Australia.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): Channel Seven reports the monthly ReachTEL result has Labor leading 52-48 – primary votes will have to wait until the morning. The Seven report also relates that 26% of respondents support the Prime Minister’s decision on imperial titles with 45% opposed, and that only 19% expect to be better off financially over the next year compared with 43% who expect to be worse off, respectively down five and up four on three months ago. More on this poll either this evening or tomorrow.

UPDATE (Essential Research): A considerable move to Labor on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition moving from 51-49 ahead to 51-49 behind. There are also two-point shifts on the primary vote, Labor up to 39% and the Coalition down to 42%, with the Greens steady on 9% and Palmer United down one to 3%.

2028
  • 101
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cfmeu-fined-125m-over-grocon-emporium-stoppages-20140331-35spk.html

    How many of those libbots will be saying the fine should be waved to protect all those poor workers – hypocrites

  • 102
    bug1
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    In three months after the federal election the Coaliton lost 10.2% primary vote, ALP gained 7.2%, OTH gained 2.7% GRN 0.1%
    In other words, 1 in 5 coalition voters had buyers remorse, most went straight to labor, some remain undecided.

    Six months after the federal election it looks like 5% have moved from the ALP to the Greens and 5% have returned to the coalition. (2.2 from ALP 2.7 from OTH).

    The coalitions is polarising voters in WA, thats why greens have gone up and ALP havent since the federal election.

    The 2pp preferred result for WA looks fishy to me, cant put my finger on it though.

  • 103
    fredex
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:28 am | Permalink

    Ta Jackol – normally I just scroll past his … er ‘offerings’ whatever.

  • 104
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Geeeeze the lip smacking ummmer and arrrhrer is making a big thing about a Press Confrence that is trying to tell us they still know nothing about nothing.

    The plane is still missing.

    Big rollout of heads to tell us something about nothing.

  • 105
    fredex
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    Unions have attacked Grocon's safety record, particularly after the deaths in March last year of three pedestrians who were walking past Grocon's CUB site in Swanston Street.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cfmeu-fined-125m-over-grocon-emporium-stoppages-20140331-35spk.html#ixzz2xUnzBieE

    Ironic ain’t it?

  • 106
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    BB:

    Caligula (does a reference to Roman emperors fall under Godwin’s Law?) was apparently not too bad a ruler for the first six months. Then he went feral as he got to realise he had unfettered power.

    That’s one hypothesis: megalomania. However, Caligula (Gaius) became seriously ill during the first year of his reign (Oct, 37 AD). It may be that his illness contributed to his bizarre behaviour thereafter.

  • 107
    victoria
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    fredex

    Also a crane driver fell to his deatho on the Myer Emporium work site last year.

  • 108
    victoria
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    it should also be noted that the Vic ALP received large donation from the CFMEU, and fhe napthine govt intend on targetting team Labor in state parliament in light of this fine

  • 109
    poroti
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    As his W.A. election contribution while in Perth Scrot Morriscum will be blowing his dog whistle fog horn .

    Asylum seekers lose free law aid

    Immigration Minister Scott Morrison will confirm in Perth today that the Government will make it more difficult for asylum seekers to navigate the complicated process of seeking protection by axing the long-standing Immigration Advice and Application Assistance Scheme......"From today, people who arrived illegally by boat, as well as illegally by air, will no longer receive free immigration advice and assistance under the scheme," Mr Morrison said.

    "Australia's protection obligations do not extend to providing free immigration advice and assistance to those who arrived in Australia illegally."

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22265758/asylum-seekers-lose-free-law-aid/

  • 110
    Centre
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    Funny Jackol

    I’ve got much better things to do than remembering what the Greens recorded for the Senate in that WA election.

    The day I need to remember the total number of votes for the Greens in an election you can get the gun and put me out of my misery :lol:

    Now to business:

    I’m officially tipping the Greens vote from that WA 2013 Senate election to FALL.

    By how much?

    I’d say “around” three quarters of a %.

    *If the Greens do better than 9.0000% I will be wRONg!

    William, lock it in :P

  • 111
    Centre
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    The Bludgers can give me as much cheek as you like. I’m still happy after Parramatta and the Bulldogs got the cash.

    They were good things. Gold Coast again tonight :cool:

  • 112
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    Centre –

    I’ve got much better things to do than remembering what the Greens recorded for the Senate in that WA election.

    I don’t doubt this for a second. My question is why, given you don’t know or care about these things, did you feel the need to contribute something as pointless as:

    No, the Greens got 9% in the 2013 WA election did they not?

    If you can’t be bothered remembering, why bother commenting?

  • 113
    poroti
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    It is not just unions not impressed with Grocon’s safety record.

    Grocon 'had little regard for safety'

    Builder Grocon's safety record has been attacked by a senior executive of one of Australia's biggest developers.

    Leaked emails between senior executives at property developer Mirvac and Grocon reveal there were serious concerns through 2012 and 2011 about Grocon's work on a $200 million Docklands apartment project known as Tower 8.

    In an email last July to Grocon executive Frank Bortoletto and six others, Mr McCarthy wrote: ”Grocon have little regards for the safety of its workers and that of others and that your site management are too intimidated to act accordingly.

    ”The breeches [sic] were evident and your management chose to deliberately and belligerently act in an irresponsible manner.”

    There is also a formal 2011 letter on Mirvac letterhead from Mr McCarthy to Grocon that warns Grocon to follow directions.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/grocon-had-little-regard-for-safety-20130505-2j1cy.html

  • 114
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    Jackol

    If you can’t be bothered remembering, why bother commenting?

    We’ve been over this before. Centre CAN’T remember.

  • 115
    fredex
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    ‘Also a crane driver fell to his deatho on the Myer Emporium work site last year’

    Maybe we need a Royal Commission the role of management
    and it’s impact on worker and public safety at construction sites.

    http://www.allianz.com.au/life-insurance/fatalities-in-the-workplace

    In FY2009-10, around 80% of workplace fatalities occurred in the goods producing industryi.The five industries with the highest number of work-related fatality in FY2009/10 were Construction (28 deaths), Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (26 deaths), Manufacturing (15), Transport and Storage (14) and Mining (6).

    Nah, lets fine the workers instead.

  • 116
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    frednk in the last thread, comented:

    Fran to read your posts you have to look past your use of the word regime; why devalue your excellent posts?

    then cited

    regime: (Modern usage) While the word regime originates as a synonym for any form of government, modern usage often gives the term a negative connotation, implying an authoritarian government or dictatorship.

    More precisely, it often implies a form of governance that is deemed by the user of the term to be of doubtful/zero legitimacy.

    As I’ve noted on a couple of occasions here, I’m using the term in its original incarnation, to describe rulership. In a past life, when I was in an organisation of the far left, we used the term to describe, broadly, how the party was going about its business, sometimes interchangeably with the choices made by the party’s most significant office-bearers. The term didn’t imply criticism within our group. It was strictly neutral. Had some party members wanted to inflect their language to “other” the leadership, they would have used other words, depending on the nature of the criticism.

    So in part, my use of the term reflects my own political history.

    That said, I don’t asee the use of the term here, with its more usual popular connotation as devaluing what I write. People should be aware that I’m a socialist, and accordingly, I don’t see capitalist regimes as “legitimate” in the broader cultural sense. They may have bourgeois democratic legitimacy — i.e. they have followed their own rules for the selection of office bearers non-arbitrarily and are thus recognised by the supporters of capitalism, (currently a very large majority of adults) as legitimate, but I set myself apart from their paradigm. Nothing, this side of governance that could fairly be said to be socially inclusive — i.e. governance for which core business was the protection of the interests of working people, their dependants, and layers of the population close to them and the structure of which emerged from bona fide instruments of their informed aspirations can, IMO, be regarded as fully legitimate for those of us who are socialists. At best, it is a vehicle for building the foundations for truly inclusive societies in circumstances where working humanity has still not acquired the political coherence needed to shape human society to serve the interests of all humanity.

    In the unlikely event that I live long enough to see inclusive governance become normative the argument for me dropping the use of regime in such places would be persuasive, though of course, in such circumstances, it’s entirely possible that the original meaning would have made a comeback and render a change moot.

  • 117
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    oops … “commented” …

  • 118
    victoria
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    Inflation continues to rise

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/inflation-continues-to-rise-survey-20140331-35sro.html

  • 119
    Centre
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    Jackol

    You don’t have to remember the votes for a party to comment :)

    Let’s hope they fall and I think there is a good chance of that happening.

  • 120
    Centre
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    Diogs

    Go back to the naughty corner.

    You make a comment and say you’re outa here, then someone replies so you again respond – and Diogs calls it not remembering :lol:

  • 121
    victoria
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    THE IPSWICH unemployment rate has hit 12.3% with 11,700 workers having lost their jobs since the LNP took office two years ago.

    Queensland Council of Unions president John Battams pointed to the cuts to the public sector by the Newman Government and its flow-on effect to the local economy, along with the lack of infrastructure projects in Ipswich, as reasons for the steep rise.

    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/ipswich-jobless-figures-soar-under-lnp-regime/2212786/

  • 122
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

    Centre -

    You don’t have to remember the votes for a party to comment

    Of course not. You are free to make whatever idiotic comments you like within William’s grace.

    When you try to “correct” actual figures someone has bothered to look up on the AEC website with your own zero-information feelpinion crap, I’ll also feel free to comment.

  • 123
    confessions
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    The man credited with the rise of microparties in the federal election believes none are likely to gain a seat in Saturday's re-run of the WA Senate election.

    Political consultant Glenn Druery, the so-called preference whisperer, says the Greens are more likely to grab the sixth Senate seat than any of the microparties.

    "I think the most likely outcome is three Libs, two Labor and a Green," he said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-31/preference-whisperer-says-microparty-success-unlikely-in-wa-sen/5353046?section=wa

    Isn’t this William’s view as well?

  • 124
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    Does Grocon get the $1.25M from the CFMEU or does it go to the government?

  • 125
    milenko
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    poroti
    Reminds me of a story re Bruno Grollo CEO Grocon, running at full height glass panel 20+ floors up ( it was in male toilets) to demo the safety of toughened glass, lucky for him his belt buckle didn’t hit glass first, glass would have exploded & bye bye Bruno ( glass these days is laminated & toughened )

  • 126
    Centre
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Jackol

    No, I’m not trying to correct any figures.

    You are free to make whatever idiotic comments you like within William's grace.

    Sheesh, you likewise.

  • 127
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    Morris Iemma giving evidence before ICAC re phone calls to him at home from Eddie Obeid trying to coerce him.

    Iemma is a very decent man!

  • 128
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    Centre -

    No, I’m not trying to correct any figures.

    Ye gods, Diog is right. You can’t remember what you wrote a few posts ago.

    Let me walk you through this:

    fredex said this, that you quoted, and it contains the figures from the AEC website:

    The Greens got 9.74 and 9.49 respectively.

    to which you, Centre, said this:

    No, the Greens got 9% in the 2013 WA election did they not?

  • 129
    Centre
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    did they not?

  • 130
    victoria
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Former Labor Premier Morris Iemma has told a corruption inquiry that crooked former minister Eddie Obeid lobbied him about infrastructure company Australian Water Holdings without revealing it had links to his family.
    Mr Iemma told the Independent Commission Against Corruption on Monday that Mr Obeid called him in 2008 and asked him to intervene to ensure public utility Sydney Water continued to deal with AWH.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-eddie-obeid-lobbied-morris-iemma-without-telling-him-he-had-an-interest-in-awh-20140331-35ssl.html#ixzz2xUyrG5VE

  • 131
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    So 3 Libs – 2 Lab – 1 Grn.

    I’ve sort of lost the thread as what would be a good realistic outcome in WA to keep Abbott in check in the senate.

    Or is that just a false hope?

  • 132
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Can someone who knows what they’re talking about explain to me how the WA Senate might work out given the current polls?

    In particular, given a notional Lib primary in the poll, how does that convert (typically) to a first preference in the Senate?

    Are the Libs going to go under or over the 42% needed for 3 quotas in their own right. If they get a partial quota over, where does it spill over into. If they get under 42, will that stop the minors from creating another loony Senator?

    Same thing with Labor. Will they make 2 quotas (28%) in their own right? That is with the polls the way they are now, discounted for the typical difference between the poll and actual first preference.

    What do you think the Green’s actual first preference will be? If they’re polling 11% will they get close to that in actual first preference?

  • 133
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard – 3/2/1 will make it that bit harder for Abbott in the Senate compared to either outcome from Sep 7, so if that’s the outcome I think that’s a minor win for the left.

    It won’t stop Abbott, but he will have to negotiate his arse off (so to speak) to get his legislative agenda through the new Senate.

  • 134
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    I’ve sort of lost the thread as what would be a good realistic outcome in WA to keep Abbott in check in the senate.

    My understanding is that had either of the two counts from last year stood, that would have meant Labor and Green would have had 35 Senators. They need 38 to block legislation.

    If Labor or Green pick up one more seat (presumably at the expense of a minor party) then they have 36 seats and thus they only need 2 more cross benchers to block any particular legislation.

    May make a big difference when it comes to contentious issues like flogging the NBN.

  • 135
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear, this a discussion between the Knights of the Rounding Error :)

  • 136
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

    Jackol + cud chewer

    Thanks, as long he has to work harder I’m happy.

    He’s a lazy politician from all accounts.

  • 137
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    After analysing the comments of the objective pollbludger electorate the independent sample shows results as follows for Saturday

    1 – lib/nat
    3 – alp
    2 – greens

    It seems the Ludlum senate speech was the game changer for the oppressed workers and peasants of wa.

  • 138
    fredex
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    Yonks ago when I was a lad I worked on a construction site.

    I had 2 main jobs. I was the on-site dogman, the bloke who stood on steel girders as the crane lifted them up to the new level. I whistled and gestured to the cranie to position the girder in its proper place without knocking over the blokes who were doing the positioning and bolting the girder into place.
    No scaffolding for them – this was the good ole days.
    Then I would join the top crew and put dozens, hundreds even, of bolts through the girders and building structure. Which entailed walking along girders about a foot wide up high, about 30yards up at the finish, in the wind with steel safety boots. Good fun.
    One morning I arrived at work and was told by the previous shift to wait.
    Cos it was raining.
    So the girders were wet – as well as having the usual thin smear of graphite on them from the blast furnace next door.
    Slippery. 30 yards up- no scaffolding [that was another of my jobs which came later].
    The company [well known mob, been in the news lately] foreman came along and told us to ‘Get up there and fix them girders’.
    But the union rep refused.
    Too dangerous he reckoned.
    So they argued about safety and wetness and height and slipperiness and the crux became whether or not it was raining.
    Rain or merely ‘drizzle’ which was a word that didn’t appear in the safety regulations.
    The union rep got a bit stroppy at this stage.
    “Doesn’t matter what it is, rain, sleet, drizzle, mist or bloody snow, the steel is wet and my workers aren’t going up there”
    Yes they are/no they’re not.

    If they don’t they’ll be sacked.

    Well we didn’t, and we weren’t sacked cos the union rep went and got the union secretary and negotiations ensued for a few hours and then we were assigned other jobs.

    Got the moral?

  • 139
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    Are there any polls specifically for the WA Senate rerun, or is everyone going off the newspoll quarterly?

  • 140
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

    Shark murder might cause an upset??????

  • 141
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    cc – no specific WA Senate polls as far as I know

  • 142
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard – I presume you are taking the piss.

    cud chewer – Everyone is going off Newspoll. There has only been one WA only Senate poll in Feb, and details were sketchy.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/21683111/libs-aim-to-retain-all-senators/

    The only other public data is Roy Morgan state breakdowns, from a mixed mode poll done on March 15/16 & 22/23. RM leans to the ALP by about a pt, and state level breakdowns presumably use respondant allocated prefs, so its not apples with apples vs the other polls.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5504-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-march-24-2014-201403240556

  • 143
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22265757/big-two-fear-palmer-success/

    Big two fear Palmer success
    Shane Wright, Nick Butterly and Andrew Probyn
    The West Australian March 31, 2014, 2:30 am

    Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten will plead today with the WA public to stick with the coalition and Labor amid fears the Palmer United Party's wall of advertising is wooing over disengaged voters.

    The Prime Minister and Opposition Leader are in Perth today, with concerns in both major parties about the results in Saturday's Senate re-run election.

    Internal and public polling suggests PUP's lead candidate Dio Wang, who won a spot in the original contested count of WA's Senate ballots, is collecting enough support to guarantee him a position in the new Senate, which sits from July 1.

    His success could put at risk the Liberal Party's third candidate, Linda Reynolds, or Greens Senator Scott Ludlam. It would also make life hard for Mr Abbott in getting legislation through the Senate where, even after this weekend's election, the Government will not have a majority.

    The major parties have been stunned by the size of PUP's advertising campaign in the lead-up to Saturday's poll.

  • 144
    Corio
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    Jackol @ 98

    Vanstone can’t help being a partisan warrior, but at least she occasionally betrays shreds of humanity.

    When? She only seems to write predictable and shallow “Liberal good; Labor bad” stuff. However, IIRC she did express some mild praise of Gough Whitlam last year, but that doesn’t really count because he’s ancient history. :-)

  • 145
    confessions
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    Today’s Mumble:

    After the December quarter Newspoll I wrote that the gender gap seemed to have outlasted Julia Gillard, with Labor enjoying an advantage among women, which we can also call a Coalition advantage among men.

    This has disappeared in the latest quarterly Newspoll—in primary vote support at least. If anything this survey shows the opposite, with a 2 point (statistically nothing to get hung up about) advantage for Labor among men.

    However Greens supporters are still mostly female which after preferences means a likely small advantage for Labor among women.

    And if you scroll down to Bill Shorten’s satisfaction ratings, he receives more positive responses from males than from females, but the same applies to negative responses. Some 30 per cent of women are undecided about Bill, compared to 21 per cent of males.

    And finally what also catches the eye is a large disproportionate drop in 18–34 age-group support for the Coalition, from 35 per cent over October December to 29 per cent in February–March.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/blokes_like_bill/

  • 146
    dave
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    This post from Sprocket about the senate is worth a repost -

    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    The senate numbers from 1 July 2014 as they now sit are:

    LNP 30
    ALP 23
    GRN 10
    OTH 7 (PUPx2+MOT, XEN, DLP, LDP, FFS)
    TOT 70

    with 6 to come from WA. If ALP/GRN can claw back a 3-3 result, it will mean

    LNP 33
    ALP 25
    GRN 11
    OTH 7 (PUPx2+MOT, XEN, DLP, LDP, FFS)
    TOT 76

    Which leaves ALP/GRN needing 2 of the OTHERs to block, and LNP needing 6 of the OTHERs to pass anything.

  • 147
    poroti
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    fredex

    Given half a chance there’d still be plenty who would happily send people up under those conditions . I remember the definition of “raining” being two drops on a cigarette paper lying on the palm of a hand. When it was iffy it was quite amusing to see the site supervisor and union rep standing out in the open staring intently at a tiny piece of paper.

  • 148
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

    lol. I’m assuming “FFS” is not Family First’s official abbreviation!

  • 149
    dave
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    This is how Zoomster saw WA quotas earlier this month -

    zoomster
    Posted Friday, March 7, 2014 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Ouch — I can see why Ludlum is so anxious to get votes off Labor.

    This is just paper pushing, and a lot of guesswork, but here goes —

    Assumptions: the difference between HoR and Senate votes for each party will remain consistent in the re election; the Newspoll figures from December for WA are still vaguely reliable (if anything, Newspoll indicates Labor’s vote has gone up since then).

    Not an assumption: quota 14.3 so -

    14.3 = 1 Senator,
    28.6 = 2 Senators,
    42.9 = 3 Senators.

    So , 2013 -
    Greens HoR 9.7, Senate 9.5
    Labor HoR 28.8 Senate 26.6
    Lib/Nats HoR 51.2, Senate 44.1

    Newspoll primaries for HoR as of December –
    Greens 10,
    Labor 36,
    Libs 41

    Translated (on incredibly shaky assumptions!) the Senate numbers for each are thus about:

    Labor 34,
    Libs 35,
    Greens 9.7, with about 20% floating.

    On those (very dodgy) figures, Labor and Libs each get 2 seats in a canter, and the Greens are desperately hoping they can pick up 5% from somewhere.

    Coincidentally, I’m sure, Labor has 5% of a quota over…..

  • 150
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    Something unlikely and weird. Unlikely and weird things do happen all the time, and we then proceed to convert them from “unlikely and weird” to a footnote in history.

    Doesn’t stop me thinking that’s bullshit bill.

    Which is your right, but it’s not bullshit simply because this kind of thing has never happened before (or been revealed as happening).

    Which was my point.

    Until something happens, we tend to think only in terms of what’s happened before when we speculate as to cause.

    Imagine you had been asleep since September 11, 2001. You’d been in New Yoprk. Had lunch in the restaurant on top of the World Trade Center. You saw (as I have seen) how solid the building was, read the plaque with all the statistics, taken in the view and so on.

    You wake up in 2014, walk down to Wall St. area and notice the buildings are just gone. Vanished.

    You ask someone what happened.

    They tell you that two gangs of young, inexperienced pilots, certainly not endorsed for Boeing 767s, relying on simulator experience alone hijacked three planes and crashed two of them a near full speed accurately into the both towers. They note that BOTH towers imploded just an hour or so later, killing thousands.

    They then tell you that two wars were started over this. One in Afghanistan and one in Iraq, involving hundreds of thousand of troops transported 5,000 mile or more from bases all over the world, based respectively on catching a bloke who lived in a cave, and finding and destroying a huge arsenal of weapons of mass destruction that were never there in the first place.

    Furthermore, both countries were occupied for a combined total of nearly 20 years. The guy in the cave was only found near the end of that period. Hundreds of thousands died after spending trillions for no result and that both countries were now headed for anarchy again.

    The President who lied about all this was RE-elected with an increased majority for a second term. The guy in the cave,and his family were business associates of the President’s father, but the connection, after being made, never got further than blogs.

    “Blogs? What are “blogs”?

    Well, they’re these things on the internet that…”

    If anyone told you such a cock-eyed story you’d tell them it was bullshit. You couldn’t knock the Twin Towers down in one hour. Rubbish!

    But now, we accept it with a shrug, because it’s true and has been shown to be true.

    We constantly evaluate the inputs to our brains in terms of the known, not the unknown. This is a pretty good strategy, which usually works.

    But not every time. There’s always room for something new.

    You can’t just dismiss something – an idea, a theory, a concept – simply because there’s a simpler, more conventional explanation.

    Occams Razor doesn’t always give a clean shave.

Womens Agenda

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