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BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government's performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor's lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

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A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2,222 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

  1. Socrates


    Again I must agree. Of course, someone must now stand over our beef producers and make sure not one single idiot uses too much insecticide etc in a paddock. The Japanese are sticklers for quality. But if both sides meet their end of the bargain it will suit both countries. With the demise of our car industry there is little left to really argue about.

    This comment is also important.
    [The deal will free up exports of dairy, beef, wine, and a range of services, while also making Japanese cars, cameras, televisions and other high-tech goods cheaper in Australia.]

    The real benefit to us is getting the added value food products like wine and dairy into Japan, not just beef. Those could be worth big money, because our quality for each is excellent. Plus they employ far more people than the cattle industry.

  2. mexicanbeemer

    After a few years here in Victoria i can’t put a finger on anything my five upper house MPs have done.

    I can’t even name them and if i a political animal can’t name them i suspect most wouldn’t have a clue if they fell over them in the street.

  3. briefly


    This is more about politics more than trade and economics. Abbott is letting the world know he will sign anything. The Indonesian, Korean and Japan deals are close to meaningless. He wants to sign a deal with China too, who must be able to see that Abbott is a push-over but has remarkably little to offer beyond minerals, energy and rural products.

    Mutual (two-way) investment liberalisation would be attractive to China, but this will probably be much too hard for Abbott for political reasons (or, as they say in Japan, because of its cultural significance…)

  4. Everything

    what about the sixth?

  5. crikey whitey

    Wasn’t particularly thrilled with the Duchess of Cambridge showing up in full red double buttoned regalia militia outfit.

    Maybe NZ are up for that.

    Hope she doesn’t do it here.

    Saving grace, the bare bottomed group (Vote right or left) were far more glam.

  6. zoidlord



    “Australian beef was estimated to have occupied 36% of the total beef market in Japan in 2012, down three percentage points from 2011.”

    Demand for Ozzie beef is going down.

  7. mexicanbeemer

    Moddy if you were referring to my comment we only have five state upper house MP’s.

  8. crikey whitey

    Kevin Bonham 2155

    Bad rating coming up for Shorten by the way.

    Oh dear.

  9. Everything

    You appear to be clutching at straws zoidy!

    It is no surprise that Australian business struggled under the ALP government, but now that we have a Liberal government, Australia is open for business again!

    :devil: *

    *PS: its a joke guys, lighten up!

  10. Tom the first and best


    I was going on the general election percentages, like the primary vote figures you provided. Got to compare like with like.

  11. Socrates


    Sorry I can’t agree re the Japan deal being economically meaningless. Japan is our second largest trading partner. Most of what they make cheaply we no longer make, so we have little to lose.

    On reduced car and consumer good prices alone, there will be a downward pressure on inflation.

  12. Tom the first and best


    What region do you live in?

  13. zoidlord

    Now who is the one clutching at straws by continuing to blame ALP?


    “The supply volume (volume by year, source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries) of the beef market reached a record high of 1,103,000 tons (of this 738,000 tons is imported) in fiscal 2000. But in fiscal 2001, the number dropped drastically to 937,000 tons (608,000 tons imported) because of the BSE in Japan. BSE not only influenced domestic beef consumption, but also the consumption of imported beef. It clearly shows that import volume made a steep drop.”

    – 2013/08/23


  14. Everything

    Posted Monday, April 7, 2014 at 11:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Moddy if you were referring to my comment we only have five state upper house MP’s.]

    Oh, I see. I thought you meant the Federal Senators from Victoria.

    I reckon 99% of Australians couldn’t name 3 Senators.

  15. Socrates

    [Demand for Ozzie beef is going down.]
    It is a fair bet that will change if a current 38% tariff is being largely removed.

    If Labor wants to have an angle on this, point out that six out of the seven years of negotiations were under Labor, starting under Rudd.

  16. swamprat

    Parlamaid na-h-Alba (Scottish Parliament) uses the Additional Member System.

    73 constituencies and 55 list MSPs = 128 MSPs:
    Current Parliament:
    SNP 65
    S Lab 38
    S Cons & Unionist 15
    S Lib Dems 5
    S Greens 2
    Ind 2
    No party 1

    Seems a good system!!!!

  17. davidwh

    Zoidlord Aussie beef exports have always fluctuated for many reasons but predominately due to the relative competitive pricing between us and the other major exporting countries. While I am no longer in the industry I can make a pretty educated guess that the high AUD/USD in recent years has put us at a disadvantage against US exports. I don’t see that stat changes the benefit Aussie beef exporters will get from this FTA.

  18. deblonay

    Re Beef sales

    Stupid Julie Bishop has lost us $200 million with the cancelleation of a large Russian order
    She should have shut up about the Crimea
    The Jap deal will only cover that gap

  19. crikey whitey

    Can one have too much of everything?

  20. Tom the first and best


    Victoria, like the other states, has 12 Senators. They are usually elected in 6s but there are 12 of them.

  21. Socrates

    Lots of good reasons to oppose Abbott, including the appalling attempt to legitimise bigotry. But let us not dredge up ten year old trade stats to try to argue the FTA is bad. If it was so bad, why did Labor pursue it for six of those seven years??

    Night all.

  22. Everything

    Don’t worry PollBludgerglasshalfemptyroonies.

    No doubt there will be some bad economic news to lift your spirits soon!

    Good night 😉

  23. mexicanbeemer


    I believe Southern Metro

    I know John Lenders is retiring and was a good state treasurer

    Andrea Coote is also retiring

    the other three are non events never seen in the local media or anything.

    They seem to spend on of their time going to various party functions and not much else.

  24. swamprat
  25. zoidlord


    While it does do that, local economy does have an effect on imports.


    More data, 11 December 2013.

    Imported beef down,
    Fast food up.

  26. mexicanbeemer

    Moddy i can name about half

    Kim Carr ALP
    Richard Di Green
    Jacinta Collins ALP
    Mitch Fifield Liberal
    Helen Kroger defeated Liberal
    John Madigan DLP

    Thats off the top of my head

  27. davidwh

    Zoidlord you are still missing the key point. The FTA improves our competitive position regardless of the Japanese domestic factors.

  28. mexicanbeemer

    Bridget McKenzie National

  29. zoidlord

    Here we go, it’s ISP’s vs Anti-Piracy groups round 2:

    I wonder if Brandis will allow anti-piracy companies a selection of legislation to be removed, just like giving Bolt a free ride to remove 18c?

    Vested interests vs People.

  30. zoidlord


    No it doesn’t.

    If the consumption of imported beef is going down, less demand for ozzie beef, there for less money than predicted.

  31. zoidlord

    Another possible court case with Telstra:

    “However, Telstra has now set a preliminary hearing date of April 30 for its appeal in the NSW Federal Court. “

  32. Tom the first and best


    The Greens MLC in Southern Metro, Sue Pennicuik is the party whip and so has lots of procedural issues and bills and amendments to deal with and thus has a lower profile in the media. The Legislative Council has a few ministers in it, like for example Matthew Guy. There are also committees that scrutinise bills. The Legislative Council is getting less publicity this term because it has a government majority at the moment and so it is not vetoing government bills.

    Parties often assign MLCs to target their resources to Assembly seats their party does not hold in their region to increase their party`s profile in those seats. My household (also in Southern Metro and is ALP held) has received pamphlets from Gorgie Crozier spruking the government`s “achievements”. The same practice happens with Senators. Do you live in a Liberal held seat?

    David Davis is the other Liberal MLC in Southern Metro.

  33. ShowsOn

    [The SA ALP won because 2 independents went against the will of the voters in their electorate and either didn’t side with the Libs or sided with the ALP.]
    Wrong again farqface. One Independent supported Labor, the other independent supported no one.

    The Liberals lost the election because they wasted hundreds of thousands trying to defeat the independents instead of winning marginal seats from Labor.

    [The majority of voters wanted a Liberal government]
    Who gives a crap you idiot, that’s never been how governments have been formed in Australia.

    [Whether the seats fell in accordance with the voters will is another matter, but I am talking about the voters will…….and its in the low 20s to mid 30s for the ALP at the moment.]
    And the Liberals in S.A. lost another election you idiot.

  34. Tom the first and best


    Janet Rice is the Greens Senator elect for Victoria.

    She will replace Mehmet Tillem who replaced David Feeney when he moved to Batman.

    Don`t forget Steven Conroy, Michel Ronaldson and the incoming Ricky Muir (replacing Kroger).

  35. Tom the first and best


    That link goes to Roy Morgan`s site.

  36. zoidlord


    Links to Morgan site 😛

  37. Tom the first and best


    I win.

  38. zoidlord


    Yes, but I put a 😛 in my post, to show even William makes mistakes 😛

  39. Tom the first and best

    I do not use emoticons. I do not like them. I think they are a little tacky.

  40. mexicanbeemer

    Thanks Tom yes how could one forget David, the state health minister and yes i knew of Sue but in terms of int he seat i couldn’t name anything they have actually done.

  41. mexicanbeemer

    Tom’s is right they are a big tacky but then again some can be cute if used correctly

  42. mexicanbeemer

    O dear how could i forget Conroy, yes i knew the Greens had another seat but that is after July.

  43. mexicanbeemer

    Thanks Tom

    Ronalidson yes having met him how could i forget, and Muir of kanga poo.

    Yes my memory has returned.

  44. Tom the first and best


    I just though I would mention her when I mentioned who she was replacing.

  45. Tom the first and best


    I must admit that I got Davis when checking the spelling of Crozier.

  46. mexicanbeemer


    Nah that is okay a Senator needs their party supporters to take the opportunity to introduce them to the public.

  47. Otiose

    → → #Auspol 08/04/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy Shorten as Bullocky Bill by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1lL8iIX