tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government’s performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor’s lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

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  • 101
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    @Confessions/99

    Next year.

    Thankfully.

  • 102
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    As a long time Union member, and I think I’m pretty staunch.

    I am tired of all the Union bashing and people ranting about how terrible unions are, while they sit back enjoying their 8hr day/40hr week, enjoy their public holidays, annual leave, sick leave and penalty rates. Things like maternity leave, parental leave, and compassionate leave all won by unions.

    They enjoy the cover and protections provided by OHS legislation thanks to Unions. If injured at work they get workers compensation – thanks to Unions.

    Weak Unionised workforce, just watch those conditions be eroded. And the same morons who spill forth their bile about Unions, will not doubt still be blaming the Unions.

  • 103
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    On the matter of fleecing…… take this scenario:

    A doctor arrives at a private hospital at 7.30pm on his way home. He looks in on 6 patients, asks them how they’re going and exchanges some pleasantries, and by 8.00pm has left the hospital.

    Under the rules, how much is he entitled to claim from Medicare for this half hour of work.

    Thanks.

  • 104
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    No later than June 20, 2015. Though they don’t have fixed terms in Qld so it could be at any time Newman decides.

  • 105
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    zoid:

    Three year terms? Youse are lucky that you mob can vote to change govt as soon as next year.

  • 106
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw

    Under the rules, how much is he entitled to claim from Medicare for this half hour of work.

    As a surgeon, I wouldn’t be able to claim anything from Medicare for seeing those patients in hospital as they would all be postop and the Medicare fee for the op includes all aftercare.

  • 107
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    Thanks sprocket. 14 months to go, and I’m wondering how much longer until the LNP moves Newman to a safer seat.

  • 108
    Labour of Love
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    No later than June 20, 2015. Though they don’t have fixed terms in Qld so it could be at any time Newman decides.

    Sprocket, I don’t think it will be Newman that decides, I think just as he read his elevation into premiership he will read the tea leaves according to the reality very soon again.

  • 109
    Labour of Love
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    “If the LNP can’t win Ashgrove we won’t win government” – Campbell Newman

  • 110
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    AA – 100% agree. We don’t enjoy a 40 hour week, annual leave and so forth out of the goodness of the hearts of past generations of employers. Workers had to join forces, via unions, to fight for them. That’s why business likes individual contracts. A business, even a fairly small one, is a composite with the resources way over what an individual worker can muster. Of course a multi million company would prefer negotiating one on one with an individual worker. To see where that ends look at the working poor in the USA.

  • 111
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott’s right royal disaster. What an embarrassment this person is

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbotts-right-royal-disaster,6346

  • 112
    feeney
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    There is a bit of talk that Newman wants to go before the end of the year. I hope so.

    It’s becoming such a dreadful state of affairs up here in QLD – the arrogance is unbelievable.

    But of course the local Courier Mail still gives them a clear run.

    Pre-selections are well under way, and those already selected are ramping up to campaign mode.

  • 113
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Good to see the goodies fighting back!

  • 114
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    I’m not sure f they still do it, but the local right wing daily newspaper would publish all the court listings for the day.

    A person need only local at the Industrial Courts to see the lack of care employers have for employees and their rights.

  • 115
    sceptic
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Sprocket @100

    “Definitely something weird about the NSW Central Coast. Many of the people there are aspirational tradie or small business types who migrated from Sydney’s western suburbs, and those who rise into politics there take their aspirations with them to make a motza however they can.”

    May be next generation of the “white-shoe brigade”

  • 116
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    feeney

    But of course the local Courier Mail still gives them a clear run.

    Actually the Curious Snail , very surprisingly, went in very hard against CanJoh before the election. Some of their revelations should have seen him destroyed politically. As Brisvegas Mayor he had really pissed off a couple of their senior journos.

  • 117
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    I read the media reports and comments on PB and other sites about how terrible things are in Queensland. The massive pay rises for politicians, the cuts to nursing and other health staff, the attack on doctors, the VLAD laws etc.

    Yet the polls keep showing the LNP well ahead.

    It’s like there’s a sign at the border as you enter Queensland – “You are now leaving Australia and its democracy and entering Queensland”

  • 118
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Just an observation, but, has anyone noticed how little The Australian is cited nowadays as any kind of authoritative source for anything?

    Sinking in its own squalid, irrelveant puddle, methinks.

  • 119
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    It ain’t called the ” Deep North ” for nothing.

  • 120
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    Lovely to see Sir Alex Pantyhose trotting off to London. Does one think he will rendezvous with Sir Alan of The Public Convenience?

  • 121
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    The Professor is dispensing wisdom on twitter, warming up in the GreenRoom at Lateline

    @CliveFPalmer: Politicians are mongrels. They don't care about people. #auspol

  • 122
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    Thanks.

    But what about a GP or Physician or Gyno (with a sick but non- surgatient)

    Thanks

  • 123
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    There is a bit of talk that Newman wants to go before the end of the year

    What!? Feeney old cock. To do wee wees?

  • 124
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    Neil Chenoweth
    Takeout from 6 hrs at ICAC is that Sinodinos has wonderfully strong credentials to be anything except a businessman or a politician #auspol

  • 125
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    These days the Australian has no more credibility than its tabloid stablemates. Or, for that matter, junk mail from the LNP. I was a regular reader of the Weekend Australian until a few years ago, but stopped when it devoted its pages to right wing propaganda and acres if newsprint to voodoo climate science. I decided I wasn’t going to pay for that crap.

  • 126
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Sinking in its own squalid, irrelveant puddle, methinks

    Oh Bushfire old chap, that’s a bit strong isn’t it?

  • 127
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes
    ....As a surgeon, I wouldn’t be able to claim anything from Medicare for seeing those patients in hospital as they would all be postop and the Medicare fee for the op includes all aftercare.

    psyclaw:

    You don’t appear to know much about Medicare rebates if you didn’t know this.

    I thought you claimed to be an expert in the health field???

  • 128
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Look, there are some terribly indecent things said on here about Sir Anthony Opus Dei. Most unfair on the poor chap. I am sure he means well. I am also sure he thinks he is right You know Catholics and Heaven and all that sort of thing.

  • 129
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    the union could still cripple businesses at will and effectively run a protection racket is they could organise secondary boycotts

    Assuming the business ness protecting and shouldn’t be left to die in the market shouldn’t the protection racquet be the illegal bit rather than the consumer decision bit?

  • 130
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Spot on Everything!

    Ask me. I am an expert in the “health field”.

  • 131
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    I do note that business can wreck Han lives at will and routinely use their power and it is applauded.

  • 132
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:12 pm | PERMALINK
    Diogenes

    Thanks.

    But what about a GP or Physician or Gyno (with a sick but non- surgatient)

    Thanks

    About $32.25, depending on how they are charging (they can charge anything they like, as long as they have told the patient in advance, or they could use the no gap private rate, or they could use the AMA recommended rates. This is the MBS rate:

    119 More information
    - Each MINOR attendance SUBSEQUENT to the first in a single course of treatment

    Fee: $43.00 Benefit: 75% = $32.25 85% = $36.55

    http://www9.health.gov.au/mbs/search.cfm?q=119&sopt=S

  • 133
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Nice dog Everything. Is it yours?

  • 134
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    feeney:

    It’s a bit of a catch 22 for the LNP. Do they move Newman in the face of poor polling and cop the blowback or do they hold off in which case the polling gets worse and even harder for them to shift his arse to safer ground?

    My frickin heart bleeds. :)

  • 135
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    I saw someone surprisingly like our Bilbo on the news tonight, waxing lyrical about WA, but basically saying he didn’t know what was going to happen.

    Couldn’t be our Bilbo, hedging bets, could it?

  • 136
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Twas

  • 137
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    I think the LNP is going to lose seats at the next Qld state election.

    Not enough to make you guys happy though :devil:

  • 138
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Steve777

    I used to buy the Australian every day and especially looked forward to the Weekend Australian and its magazine. Then there was a change of boss cocky editor and it became wall to wall “Institute” for this and “Centre” for that. Soon decided that they were “Never to buy again”. From sales it looks like I was not Robinson Crusoe,

  • 139
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    William, I have a special interest in the Willoughby Mayoral election on Saturday week. Do you know where I can find a tally room for it, if at all?

    Willoughby is in North Sydney. Some interesting things happening there concerning senior Liberals.

  • 140
    jeffemu
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    I think if CanDo the Can’t combusted somewhere, anywhere north of the Tweed I dont think there’d be a big rush to douse him.

    I know hundreds of people that believe strongly that he is not worth pissing on.

    Its just a pity that Labor was so wiped out the last election. If we just had a stronger opposition (more seats) in the house.

    But it is definately fun watching the grub and his cronies sink. It’s hard these days to find anyone who confesses that they voted for him.

  • 141
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw

    Thanks.

    But what about a GP or Physician or Gyno (with a sick but non- surgatient)

    Thanks

    I think gyno counts the same as a surgeon and that’s about $36.

    A physician is more, about $43.

    A GP would be less than either but I don’t how much.

  • 142
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Roger, I expect results will appear at some stage or another on the NSW Electoral Commission site.

    http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/

  • 143
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    I think the LNP is going to lose seats at the next Qld state election.

    Not enough to make you guys happy though

    Don’t know about that old cock..

  • 144
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    For those wanting to calculate the fee for a socialist visit patients in the hospital (6 x $35 is about $200), don’t forget to factor in that if they make a mistake, they could be sued up to $84 million.

    How much should you be paid, in order to make it worthwhile to take the risk of being sued up to $14 million* per patient?

    *my memory of the highest payment to a single patient….happy to be corrected!

  • 145
    feeney
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    confessions @ 134

    You’ve raised some good points there.

    I just cannot see him holding his Ashgrove seat. So, who is going to step aside for him in a so-called ‘safe’ seat?

    These days there are very few seats that can be described as ‘safe’ on either side of politics.

    The ongoing fight with the judiciary, the doctors, teachers, nurses, unions etc is breathtaking. It’s a daily brawl.

    You have to be here to get a feel for the arrogance and smart-arse behaviour of them.

    A leading public hospital plastic surgeon today announced he is seeking ALP pre-selection for a marginal Liberal Brisbane seat – previously a ‘safe’ Labor seat.

    Interesting times.

  • 146
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Thank you William. I will watch with great interest. I don’t suppose you will devote a thread to it?

  • 147
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/137

    I believe you keep saying things like that over the last 12 months? We are not happen in QLD for a number of reasons.

  • 148
    roger bottomley
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    But it is definately fun watching the grub and his cronies sink. It’s hard these days to find anyone who confesses that they voted for him.

    Oh come on Jeff. I know one at least!

  • 149
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    Happy*.

  • 150
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    I dont think there’d be a big rush to douse him.

    He is vulnerable in the seat he’s in. Esp if this kind of polling translates.

    What does the LNP do? As I said, the coming 14 months are going to be interesting.

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