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BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government's performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor's lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

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A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2222 comments

2,222 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

  1. guytaur

    William

    Will you be appearing or is the ABC just back with Antony Green?

    “@ABCNews24: Don’t forget #ABCNews24 will have LIVE coverage & analysis of #wavotes on Saturday at 6pm WST (9pm AEDT) #auspol http://t.co/j7TI6BbaHe”

  2. William Bowe

    I’m not actually sure what’s happening on ABC TV on Saturday night, but Antony will have more to do with it than me.

  3. guytaur

    william

    Pity. I enjoyed your efforts for SA.

  4. imacca

    [ Someone was asking earlier about whether Sinodinos had made use of section 38 of the ICAC act – I believe he has, as it is recorded as such in the transcript from ICAC. ]

    From the previous thread.

    That could cause him to come in for some flak if he does return to the Senate. Doug Cameron’s retort to Sinodos’ silly comments in the Senate included the advice that if he was really satisfied he had acted properly he would have no need to make use of section 38.

    Lol! if Dougie doesn’t get him for that, you can bet Wong will. 🙂

  5. Jackol

    Senate counting isn’t a great deal of fun at the best of times, and unless there’s a real boilover in PUP votes or collapse in one of the majors the only excitement of this election is going to be in who gets the last seat, and that’s not something that it’s sensible to make many predictions about on the night.

  6. imacca

    [ “@ABCNews24: Don’t forget #ABCNews24 will have LIVE coverage & analysis of #wavotes on Saturday at 6pm WST (9pm AEDT) #auspol http://t.co/j7TI6BbaHe” ]

    How much info will be available on the night for a Senate count??

  7. kevjohnno

    What will they find to talk about during the coverage?

  8. guytaur

    imacca

    It could be the most interesting coverage yet. Mr Green won’t spend the whole night lecturing the nation about the advantages of OPV.

  9. zoidlord

    Joe Hockey 6th August 2013:
    “We will own the economy from day one, whether it’s Labor’s fault or not. I’m not afraid to accept responsibility and I’m not afraid to be accountable.”

    http://joehockey.com/media/transcripts/details.aspx?s=498&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

  10. Tom the first and best

    8

    He can focus on ATL OPV, like they have in New South Wales.

  11. zoidlord

    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/mobile-broadband-a-massive-boost-to-australian-economy-acma-20140403-zqq7a.html

    “The proliferation of mobile broadband has helped push Australian wages up over the past seven years, as technology saves businesses time and money and makes consumers more productive.”

    huh?

  12. Simon Katich

    ‘It was a rough place – the seediest dive on the wharf. Populated with every reject and cutthroat from Bombay to Calcutta. It’s worse than a Board of Directors setup by Eddie Obeid.’

  13. guytaur

    zoid

    Self serve means you are working for the business

  14. zoomster

    So, in Abbott’s world, $200k for 50 hours work is Good but 50 cents an hour ‘shiny tin allowance’ is Evil.

  15. Tom Hawkins

    [So, in Abbott’s world, $200k for 50 hours work is Good but 50 cents an hour ‘shiny tin allowance’ is Evil.]

    Excellent argument!

  16. Bugler

    Zoomster,

    It really seems to be a variation on the theme of “people on $150,000 PA are struggling but a base wage of 28,000 PA is too much”

  17. mikehilliard

    What a right Royal stuff up.

    [Abbott has second guessed the Queen, which would be, in the eyes of the Palace, simply unforgiveable.

    His office is now spinning desperately to try to get him out of trouble, but this merely illustrates what a mess this impetuous prime minister creates by going it alone — as he so often does.]

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbotts-right-royal-disaster,6346

  18. mikehilliard

    Wasn’t the ‘shiny tin allowance’ extra money paid to forklift drives to stack the raw tins which needed special handling so there were not damaged?

  19. zoidlord

    @guytaur/13

    Yes, but the point I was making the liberals and shockjocks were spruiking wireless.

  20. poroti

    mikehilliard

    It was and not only but also had not been paid to anyone for a fairly long time.

  21. mikehilliard

    poroti

    Thanks, thought so. Abbott is a pro at twisting the facts.

  22. imacca

    [ Wasn’t the ‘shiny tin allowance’ extra money paid to forklift drives to stack the raw tins which needed special handling so there were not damaged? ]

    Yup, but mere trifling skills of Bogans in handling actual heavy machinery in such a way as to perhaps enhance the productivity of a business and reduce wastage, pale into insignificance compared to the value adding capabilities of well connected person of quality engaged in guiding our captains of industry through the Byzantine horrors of interacting with a Labor Government. Surely that’s obvious??