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A dedicated thread for WA Senate election discussion appears in order. First, some random chatter.

Troy Bramston on Twitter a few minutes ago:

I’m told @LiberalsWA polling has given Coalition confidence it will win 3 seats #wavotes ALP in danger of not winning 2. Greens likely 1.

Samantha Maiden on Twitter a few minutes before that:

Liberals in WA pessimistic of chances of snaring three out of six Senate spots with likely outcome 2 Lib, 2Lab, 1Green, 1 Clive Plamer PUP

Me in comments a bit earlier:

Informed speculation:

Big win for Scott Ludlam, maybe with a full quota in his own right.

Labor in the low 20s – maybe the very low 20s – but still more likely than not to scrape home for a second seat, thanks to left preferences staying left this time around. Very low turnout could thwart them though.

Palmer United to poll very strongly, but the danger to them is that they finish stranded in seventh place as both Liberal and Labor-Greens do just enough to make it to three quotas each.

The Liberals, nonetheless, in big danger of losing a third seat to Palmer.

A path to victory remains open for HEMP if the Labor vote falls low enough that they can’t cobble together a second quota. One possible scenario is Liberal 2, Labor 1, Greens 1, Palmer United 1, HEMP 1.

Lenore Taylor at The Guardian:

Labor’s lead candidate says voters can’t trust his party, the Palmer United party (PUP) candidates have gone missing, the Greens candidate is DJing, 75 people get to vote twice and the whole thing is an unprecedented rerun because the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) messed up last time. Oh, and it could have a critical impact on how the government gets its legislation through the upper house. The West Australian Senate poll would have jumped the shark, if the state wasn’t culling them.

All right, punters – let’s get punting.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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145 comments

145 thoughts on “WA Senate election minus one day

  1. The Whig Party

    Adam Carr predicted with great confidence a few months back that a senate re-run would never happen. Adam Carr was wrong.

  2. deblonay

    Post 1…re Psephos
    ____________________
    he has been know to be ?

  3. jules

    I live in Northern NSW, and played footy for Nimbin for a long time, met the people from HEMP a bit. Some used to like watching us. Micheal Balderstone would come to lots of games, and his son ended up playing Aussie Rules.

    Despite the obvious silliness of someone from Lismore getting elected in WA, I don’t mind the thought of it. Definitely progressive, definitely green/pro environment, they are basically hippies who like pot, but they also have a strong sens of social justice and, in a way, responsibility.

    Some people think HEMP is a bit of a joke but if it happens i think it could be an interesting and productive thing. They are not fans of Abbott or the destructive side of mining. Despite the odds against it I kind of hope JM/hemp win a senate seat.

  4. fredex

    Somebody asked where the Greens are getting their money from.
    My understanding is that they are the only one of the 3 main parties who have membership growth.
    And they spend less anyway, by lots, imagine their reach if they had Palmer’s money or Murdoch’s support.

  5. deblonay

    My wife and I recently spent a winter holiday at Byron Bay and went over a spent a few days in Nimbin

    Very interesting little town with a wide range of “alternative “shops and products…and cafes with great food too
    Really worth a visit even for we oldies

    We were amused when we spoke with an elderly lady visitor who had bought some nice cake,but was worried the locals might have dosed it with Marijuana…I said no such luck

    easily reached from Lismore and has lots of good accom I gather

  6. deblonay

    Nimbin is one of those small towns that have reinvented a future for themselves…a number exist like a little place between Geelong and Colac called Birregurra…great food shops of local produce and a great country pub,and in the heart of the Otways and close to Lorne

    Also Port Fairy on the West Coast of Vic,…and Queenscliff both charming little seaside towns with great attractions,,,and in the later case ,a great 2nd hand bookshop….also Daylesford just a hour north of Melbourne.also has great bookshops and food and near Ballarat,and a fine lake too..and also that lovely place in the hills above Cairns …I forget the name
    Not all country towns are doomed to decline

  7. Kevin Bonham

    AussieAchmed@7

    Cash for handing HTV cards

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BkXvq_ICEAAZ0-n.jpg:large

    That’s a tad deplorable. Public exposure is indeed the most appropriate response.

  8. ShowsOn

    HAPPY SPEED DATING FRIDAY MOFOS!

  9. democracy@work

    I can not see the ALP going backwards, They are better placed in terms of preferences. The minor parties are not united so we will not see a repeat of the minor parties scramble to the top.

    Do not see PUP polling ahead of ALP LNP or GRN surplus.

    Wikileaks is still a wold card depending on Greens primary vote. They are not well placed in terms of preferences if the do not get over 11% primary.

    PUP taking a seat from LNP… possible

    The Droop quota distorts the proportionality of the Count. It’s continued use has no merit, It was introduced to facilitate a manual count and avoid the need to distributed all ballot papers. Other issues that distort the proportionality if the paper based calculation of the Surplus transfer value and the distribution of excluded candidate preferences. All these issues need to be reconsidered. With computerized counting they can no longer be justified.

  10. ShowsOn

    [The Droop quota distorts the proportionality of the Count. It’s continued use has no merit, It was introduced to facilitate a manual count and avoid the need to distributed all ballot papers. Other issues that distort the proportionality if the paper based calculation of the Surplus transfer value and the distribution of excluded candidate preferences. All these issues need to be reconsidered. With computerized counting they can no longer be justified.]
    NOT THIS FORK AND SHIT AGAIN!

  11. fredex

    [That’s a tad deplorable. Public exposure is indeed the most appropriate response.]
    I just saw it on Facebook.

  12. ifonly

    So, can we post scenarios even if they are unlikely but produce results that would surprise everyone? I’ll assume yes. Go to Anthony Green’s simulator, assume no change to anything EXCEPT Katter’s .3% goes to zero and the .3% is added to the Nats.

    Result is 3Lib, 2Lab and a Nat because the Nat’s pass PUP at the critical point.

  13. Frankie V.

    Lib (x3)
    Nat (x1)
    LDP (x1)
    Lab (x1)

  14. democracy@work

    Will the AEC be publishing progressive BTL preference data files? Will this crucial information be made available to scrutineers during thw count? it is impossible to properly scrutinse an electronic count Without access to copies of the BTL preference data files.

  15. Psephos

    Will you once again be campaigning to have a Labor Senator’s election invalidated and the seat given to the Greens?

  16. deblonay

    Bullock must be one of the most reactionary union leaders of the DLP brigade in Australia

    His scorn for Pratt and gay people and his scorn for progressive opinion says it all

    He is in most ways as rectionary and right-wing as Abbott…as are all the DLP God-Botherers …and on the evidence pretty stupid as well Still with some of the ALP-DLPers in Canberra he will be in similar company

    a worthless bunch in all

  17. geoffrey

    deblonay
    Posted Friday, April 4, 2014 at 9:33 pm | PERMALINK
    My wife and I recently spent a winter holiday at Byron Bay and went over a spent a few days in Nimbin

    Very interesting little town with a wide range of “alternative “shops and products…and cafes with great food too
    Really worth a visit even for we oldies

    We were amused when we spoke with an elderly lady visitor who had bought some nice cake,but was worried the locals might have dosed it with Marijuana…I said no such luck

    easily reached from Lismore and has lots of good accom I gather

    —–eh? i thought you might be pre 1970 in your views and now i know it. yes do share the secret on nimbin

  18. geoffrey

    ifonly
    Posted Friday, April 4, 2014 at 10:31 pm | PERMALINK
    So, can we post scenarios even if they are unlikely but produce results that would surprise everyone? I’ll assume yes. Go to Anthony Green’s simulator, assume no change to anything EXCEPT Katter’s .3% goes to zero and the .3% is added to the Nats.

    Result is 3Lib, 2Lab and a Nat because the Nat’s pass PUP at the critical point.
    ——-big assumption. what about lib vote?

  19. geoffrey

    what about plane down beat up – is this part abbott electoral pitch by any chance? will it have any outcome?

  20. silentmajority

    Unfortunately, I predict,

    Libs 3
    Lab 2
    Green 1
    Pup 1

  21. Independently Thinking

    I still can’t see past 3 Lib, 2 ALP and 1 Green, but as a dark horse, there is a possibility the AEC could lose some more ballot papers and have to do it all again.

  22. Independently Thinking

    silentmajority, I hate to tell you, but your prediction is impossible. Interesting, but impossible.

  23. Arrnea Stormbringer

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/aec-flags-another-election-after-latest-ballot-bungle/story-fn59niix-1226875055711#

    Seriously? If this happens, I can see a “Fuck the AEC” party doing very well at the re-run of the re-run.

  24. Asha Leu

    I’m tipping:

    Lib 2
    Lab 2
    Grn 1
    PUP 1

    I would laugh long and hard if HEMP got in instead of PUP, but I don’t think its going to happen. Does anyone know what their positions (if any) are on non-marijuana issues? I’m assuming broadly progressive and/or libertarian?

    I also predict that, no matter what happens, there is an 100% chance Clive Palmer will complain about the results and accuse the AEC of being involved in a conspiracy against him and democracy.

  25. WeWantPaul

    [Will you once again be campaigning to have a Labor Senator’s election invalidated and the seat given to the Greens?]

    Are you still backing Bullock as a wonderful candidate wisely endorsed and the heart and soul of the party, if of the right right right part of what for you must be an extraordinary big church?

  26. WeWantPaul

    On this third poll milarky, how does the senate stack up if there there are six WA vacancies? I assume it can still sit?

  27. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ Asha 25

    Agreed, on all counts. Clive is definitely going to cry foul is he’s left holding the Old Maid in 7th place.

    If the Libs poll more than about 38% and Palmer polls less than 10% though, it’s quite possible that the Libs will get to three quotas before Palmer gets one.

  28. silentmajority

    Oops, 1 too many.

    Lab 1

    Insert embarrassment icon here

  29. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ WeWantPaul 26

    Bullock is a religious extremist turd who should be kicked out of the Labor Party after his asinine comments, not only in questioning Ms Pratt’s sexuality, but also in referring to the ALP membership as a whole as “mad”. I take personal offence to that.

    @ 27

    There’s no precedent for it, so I don’t know for sure what would happen. Western Australia is constitutionally entitled to be represented by twelve Senators upon the sitting of the new Senate.

    Two possible scenarios come to my mind:
    1. The existing six Senators for this half (3x Lib, 2x Lab, 1x Grn) are re-seated temporarily until an election is finally held and confirmed.
    2. The Senate is prorogued until such an election can be held and confirmed.

  30. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ My 30, regarding WWP’s 27

    It would be an interesting question to ask a scholar of our electoral laws, such as Mr Bowe or Mr Green.

  31. WeWantPaul

    [Bullock is a religious extremist turd who should be kicked out of the Labor Party after his asinine comments, not only in questioning Ms Pratt’s sexuality, but also in referring to the ALP membership as a whole as “mad”. I take personal offence to that.]

    Yeah so you should. What is annoying is that none of this is a surprise to anyone, in fact he is probably a lot worse than he has looked so far in the campaign. He is putting on his good side till he is elected.

    I’ve always held a view of him that makes yours look a little kind.

    Adam consistently and passionately defended him. Adam is a very dedicated team player.

  32. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ WWP 32

    Unfortunately, the best I can do to show my disapproval of Mr Bullock is to place him at #77 on my below-the-line vote tomorrow.

  33. WeWantPaul

    [@ WWP 32

    Unfortunately, the best I can do to show my disapproval of Mr Bullock is to place him at #77 on my below-the-line vote tomorrow.]

    Yes me too.

  34. Arrnea Stormbringer

    He’s going to get up either way, though, which is a shame.

  35. WeWantPaul

    [He’s going to get up either way, though, which is a shame.]

    Yeah he is – but my skin want crawl with shame.

  36. WeWantPaul

    won’t – not want – must be bed time

  37. imacca

    [ Does anyone know what their positions (if any) are on non-marijuana issues? I’m assuming broadly progressive and/or libertarian? ]

    I emailed them a couple of days ago to find out positions on Carbon Price and MRRT.

    They wont vote to repeal the Carbon Price, and didn’t say anything about the MRRT. From the tone of email and language around sustainability they sound like stoned Greens to me. 🙂

    I’ll certainly preference them fairly high, but behind Pratt and Ludlam.

  38. imacca

    So anyone know if UWA are going to do another survey AFTER tomorrows poll to follow up on the one from a week or so ago??

  39. Tom the first and best

    What are the chances that Bullock has some unknown disqualification from serving in the Commonwealth Parliament and can thus be challenged, like the lead One Nation candidate was in Queensland in 1998, and then the second and possibly third candidates on the ALP ticket elected?

  40. imacca

    Something that just occurred to me thinking about amusing consequences if HEMP win a spot.

    Do Senators have to have drug tests?? 🙂

  41. ifonly

    I’ll nail my colours as 3 Libs, 2 Labor and 1 PUP.
    I come to this based on
    (1)micros that are unlikely to change % that feed to Libs
    Nats 5%, Lib Dems, 3.5% Christians 1.5% Family First .5% (10.5% total). So if Libs get at least 32% (down from 39%) they still get to the magic 42.5% and 3 places.

    (2)It then seems likely that PUP will get up because they will get % of leftover Lib vote.

    (3)The only decision is whether Greens get there before the second Labor, I go for 2 Labor based only on how the micros have preferenced.

  42. imacca

    Well, if colors are being nailed i’ll go with:

    2 Lib
    2 ALP
    1 Green
    1 PUP

  43. William Bowe

    Arrnea, there’s a line beyond which I don’t allow invective about public figures to go, and “turd” is on the wrong side of it. In answer to the question of whether the Senate could sit, my guess is that this has never been tested, but that a legal challenge against any business that proceeded in a Senate with half a state’s representatives missing would succeed.

  44. deblonay

    PSEPHS is a dogged defender of the Labor Right . It relates to his whole political vewpoint and to his loathing of the Left generally

    Could that loathing also relate to his passionate defence of Israel which nowadays many on the left criticise strongly…in my experience Zionist cannot tolerate any criticism of their pet project …Israel…,which has a sacredness for them…so criticism is a kind of blasphemy

  45. lefty e

    Lets hope the ALPs choice of a worthless and execreable lead candiadte doesnt screw the rest of us.

    Cheers.

  46. Bird of paradox

    Tom tfab at 40: That’d be unlikely, but kinda cool. Shane Hill is Labor’s #3, and was the MLA for Geraldton during the Gallop / Carpenter govt. I don’t remember anything about him beyond the fact he existed, which with pollies is probably a good thing. 😛

    This is pinched from the ABC 2008 election page:

    [ 42 year-old Shane Hill was born in Kalgoorlie and lived in Geraldton for many years while working for the Department of Planning. Until shortly before the 2001 election, Hill worked on the electorate staff of the member for Midland, Michelle Roberts. Hill has a strong interest in animal welfare issues, which he mentioned in his inaugural parliamentary speech. He has been government whip since Alan Carpenter became Premier in February 2006. ]

    So, more agreeable than Joe Bullock then. Between Geraldton 2001, Durack 2010 and now this, he sure doesn’t get the easy candidacies.

    My prediction will be 2-2-1-1. Ludlam because the Green campaign has been able to focus on him much more than Labor’s has on their multiple candidates, and Palmer’s guy by the sheer weight of advertising. They have TWO FULL PAGES in this week’s Perth Voice – pages 2 and 3, so it’s the first thing you see when you open it. Dunno how many people that’ll sway round here, but they’re certainly going hard. And the Liberal vote will probably fall, because (a) that’s what happens in by-elections in safe govt seats and (b) the state govt sure ain’t helping. Between Buswell and the teachers’ strike this week, Abbott must be wishing McGowan had won last year.

    Apart from that, I’ve had my door knocked on by a Green volunteer and seen them handing out leaflets at Perth train station this week, got another DVD from Palmer and a letter from the Libs, and I don’t think I’ve seen a single thing from Labor.

  47. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @William 44

    Noted and withdrawn. I stand by my assertion that Bullock’s comments were nonetheless asinine and should result in his banishment from the party, however.

    What chance do you rate a prorogation of the Senate (or the Parliament as a whole) if six senators can’t be duly elected for WA before July 1?

  48. Psephos

    COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA CONSTITUTION ACT – SECT 11

    Failure to choose senators

    The Senate may proceed to the despatch of business, notwithstanding the failure of any State to provide for its representation in the Senate.

  49. Psephos

    I’m flattered that so much discussion here seems to revolve around me, even when I’m not here. I’ll be overseas for the next two months, so you’ll have to make do without me.