tip off

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Fortnightly results from Newspoll and Morgan both record shifts to the Coalition, in the former case giving them the lead for the first time in over three months.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.

Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.

1095
  • 1051
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Requirement to be a union member:

    There is no requirement to be a union member in order to join the party.

  • 1052
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    Fitzgibbon is a Ruddist feather duster with obvious old scores to settle.

    It’s only the Rudd Rump along with Greens and Liberal hacks trying to stir up trouble who give a shit what the man has to say.

  • 1053
    Centre
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Briefly @ 1048

    He was wrong about Bullock however.

    KB, that’s terrible, Labor on track to lose in WA.

    *night

  • 1054
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    briefly

    “It is just bizarre that a union as large and powerful as the SDA could be run on theocratic lines. Their rights inside the ALP should be suspended until they modernise.”

    Bingo. I’m not putting a 1 next to any SDA Labor candidate or a ticket they’re on top of.

    Unless, that is, they’re running on a clearly secular, social democratic platform as opposed to a cranky, geriatric, sectarian Catholic one.

  • 1055
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    I’m a boomer but am neither greedy nor destructive. You’re generalising and probably making it more more difficult to bring about the change you purport to seek.

    Of course I’m generalising, how else would one characterise a large class. I don’t purport to seek change, it is simply obvious that my generation and our children need that change, and the minor costs and inconvenience it will bring now, and the the obvious world wide failure of action is apparent.

    I don’t think I’m making the change harder, either the boomers get (as a class) a self sacrificing streak that have not ever exhibited or we are waiting for them to disappear so more responsible and less selfish generations can start to undo the damage of the past and build a future.

  • 1056
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Goodnight

  • 1057
    crikey whitey
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    No more Banana Republics then.

    briefly at 1044

    Banana Supply Seen by UN’s FAO at Risk as Disease Spreads

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-09/banana-supplies-seen-by-un-s-fao-at-risk-after-disease-spreads.html

  • 1058
    briefly
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    1051
    confessions

    Requirement to be a union member:

    There is no requirement to be a union member in order to join the party.

    Technically, the situation is a little different. The rules (WA Labor Draft Rules 2103) provide for the rejection of applications to join…

    4.1.7 Rejection of Application
    • A membership application will be rejected if the applicant:
    • Is a member of another political party or auxiliary;
    • Is a member of a proscribed organisation;
    • Is not a member of an Affiliated Union when eligible to be so;
    • Has failed to pay the requisite membership fee; or
    • Has previously had their application rejected by another Party unit.

    If there is no relevant affiliated union, union membership is not required. This is sort of strange. It means unionists are required to make a dual contribution – first to their union and secondly as an individual. It is no wonder so few unionists take out individual memberships.

  • 1059
    briefly
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    1057...crikey whitey

    exactly :)

  • 1060
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    I joined last year as a non union member. Not only was my membership application to the ALP accepted, but I’ve had no blowback from the party on not being a union member. None whatsoever.

  • 1061
    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Bob Carr blasts Gillard over her subservience to the Jewish Lobby on foreign policy
    __________________
    Speaking in nhis new book… of the occasion last year when Carr supported the Palestinian application for a limited Palestinian membership of the UN G Assembly and Unesco which Gillard opposed….Carr said she was in the grip of the Melb Jewish Lobby and he had to get a Caucus vote to overtake her

    From the inception of the PM-ship she was notorious for her pro-Israeli view’ and the way they influenced her

    She supported all sort of Lobby proposal,went to Palestine on a delegation when Deputy-PM with ANDREW BOLT and other right-wingers
    Her boy-friend was employed for a time by millionaire jewish property developer in Melb also

    Carr had different views and has today lashed ou on ABC
    This will be a significant moment,given the domination of the Jewish Lobby over matters of Foreign Policy re the M East..here as in the USA…where the same challange is being made

    …and Psephos is not here to defend them against all comers

  • 1062
    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Bob Carr lashes Gillard over her subservience to the Jewish Lobby

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-09/bob-carr-lashes-out-at-melbourne-pro-israel-lobby/5379074

  • 1063
    briefly
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    1060
    confessions

    briefly:

    I joined last year as a non union member. Not only was my membership application to the ALP accepted, but I’ve had no blowback from the party on not being a union member. None whatsoever.

    I’m not suggesting you would…only that the rules relating to membership are not as simple as anyone is stating…

  • 1064
    briefly
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    The way the rules work now anyone can join the ALP. But if there is an affiliated union they could belong to, they have to join that as well. It is an odd thing. It should be abolished.

  • 1065
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    UK Youth Unemployment still very large, and still very real concern for here too:
    http://realbusiness.co.uk/article/26360-uk-youth-unemployment-still-at-large

    It surprises me, even now, Labor are not focused on jobs, even Liberals have this problem.

    Funny in the UK they have seem to identified the problem:

    “It goes on to reveal that those who leave school with only GCSE level qualifications (or less) are more than twice as likely to be unemployed as those with better qualifications. ”

    “And that significant barriers, such as large disparities in housing prices and private sector rents, prevent many young people from moving to rapidly growing cities where they have an improved chance of finding entry level work.”

    Whether or not, they will have the backbone to create progressive policies in these area’s is entirely different question.

  • 1066
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Speaking in nhis new book… of the occasion last year when Carr supported the Palestinian application for a limited Palestinian membership of the UN G Assembly and Unesco which Gillard opposed….Carr said she was in the grip of the Melb Jewish Lobby and he had to get a Caucus vote to overtake her

    From the inception of the PM-ship she was notorious for her pro-Israeli view’ and the way they influenced her..

    Which pretty sick of her, but she knows how to pander to to the proper scum to get to power and try keep herself in power.

    One decent thing Carr did, get Gillard mugged over that, and save Australia from shame.

  • 1067
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    deb

    This will be a significant moment,given the domination of the Jewish Lobby over matters of Foreign Policy re the M East

    I think it will sink without trace as will the 500 pages he’s written about being Foreign Minister for 18 months.

  • 1068
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Bob Carr blasts Rudd for his poor interpersonal and communication skills.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bob-carrs-diary-takes-aim-at-julia-gillard-and-kevin-rudd-for-mistakes-20140409-zqsso.html

  • 1069
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    I can only speak of my own experience, which is so far removed from the lies being reported.

  • 1070
    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    Bob Carr is about to learn a harsh lesson
    ___________________
    He will learn that you cannot conduct a debate with the Jewish Lobby
    Israeli supporters demand and expect TOTAL loyalty..there is no room for doubt..Gaza,The Settlements,the whole lot…all have be supported unquestionably…or you get the TREATMENT
    You are called “uninformed” then if that fails and you con tinue to speak out you will get the “anti-semitic” label..and if that fails you may be called a”neo-nazi”…you may be described as an idiot…

    All these are shots in the campaign to silence and intimidate critics

    However it doesn’t work but turns people into critics of Israeli policy… and they remain angry and criticsl

    I have been so described here in PB(Psephos a very strident critic …called me an idiot…in a whole lifetime of political activity I have been criticised by many but nobody was ever rude enough to say that..but I don’t worry for I despise and ignore rude people like them ..

    What it does it leave Israel and the Lobby…with few friends and a host of critics but they don’t seem to get that either

  • 1071
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    You are called “uninformed” then if that fails and you con tinue to speak out you will get the “anti-semitic” label..and if that fails you may be called a”neo-nazi”…you may be described as an idiot…

    Somehow, I reckon Bob will pull through.

  • 1072
    lefty e
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Oh and BTW, here’s HRH Prince Charles on the republic:

    "It would come as a great relief to all of us. It would remove the awful ambiguity we have at the moment. It seems to me that it would be a lot easier for everybody if you all had your own completely independent head of state."

    Bascially, you Antipodean Monarchist wankers are wasting the Royals’ time. They’re just politely tolerating you until you go away. They cant wait.

    When you look at that way – you really are a bunch of losers, aren’t you :)

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10114009

  • 1073
    deblonay
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    RE Bob Carr re Israel

    Carr ,far from “sinking withour trace”has opened the door on a subject kept hidden and those who have wanted to see this door opened will now see this as moment of opportunity

    Actually the Islamic Lobby here in Oz is far greated in numbers than the Jewish Lobby,but the Jews use their great wealth to buy their way in to all political parties
    Not be it said..The Greens..who have a principled policy on the Palestinian issue…….

    and they have been attacked for it

    Last election in Melb Ports Danby wanted to give his prefs to the Libs ahead of the Greens
    Oddly he finished behind the Libs and was saved by the Green prefs”’i thought they should have taken the chance and given their prefs to a Lib and got rid of Danby
    I have some Labor voting friends in the seat who voted Lib rather than for Danby..whom some of the locals call”The MP for Tel Aviv”

  • 1074
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    briefly@1064

    The way the rules work now anyone can join the ALP. But if there is an affiliated union they could belong to, they have to join that as well. It is an odd thing. It should be abolished.

    I disagree.

    I don’t like free-loaders of any stripe. If you enjoy the benefits won by a union, then join the union. It is working in your interests.

  • 1075
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    1069
    confessions

    briefly:

    I can only speak of my own experience, which is so far removed from the lies being reported.

    I think there is a certain amount of misunderstanding. There bigger issue is how to re-distribute power, especially with regard to preselections and the election of office-holders. This is all highly problematic…

  • 1076
    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    Bemused, I couldnt agree more about freeloaders on union members’ sweat, dues, and committments. Shits me to tears.

    But does it need to be a requirement for party membership?

  • 1077
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    1073

    The Israel lobby versus the Palestine Lobby is not just about money, it is also about seat margins. Seats with higher numbers of Arabs/Muslims tend to be safe ALP while Melbourne Ports is fairly marginal and Danby`s person vote in the Jewish community is a major reason the ALP holds the seat. Wentworth also has had a low margin for the Liberals in the recent past.

  • 1078
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    lefty e@1076

    Bemused, I couldnt agree more about freeloaders on union members’ sweat, dues, and committments. Shits me to tears.

    But does it need to be a requirement for party membership?

    Free loading is contrary to the ethos of the party.

    Where there is a union representing you, you should pay your dues.

    The ALP should not encourage free-loaders or scabs of any stripe.

  • 1079
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    @bemused/1078

    Unions seem to not be doing that as of late.

  • 1080
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    briefly:

    As I said, I’ve not experienced such bullying to join a union, but if there is such a rule about affiliated unions it’s frankly archaic and a drag on the party modernising and appealing to wider public, and should therefore be abolished.

  • 1081
    deblonay
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    Mike Whitney.US writer on energy,saya the Ukrainian crisis if at its core,about the US oil/gas monopolies wanting to get their hands on the great Russian resources,which Putin has denied them

    He believes that the US monopolies and a complient Pres would risk a 3rd World War by pushing Russia to the brink..and they hate Putin because he has denied them access to the vast Russian resources
    an interesting statement
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/12/big-oils-sore-losers-lead-the-drive-to-war/an resources…which are kept for the Russian state

  • 1082
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    1074
    bemused

    briefly@1064

    The way the rules work now anyone can join the ALP. But if there is an affiliated union they could belong to, they have to join that as well. It is an odd thing. It should be abolished.

    I disagree.

    I don’t like free-loaders of any stripe. If you enjoy the benefits won by a union, then join the union. It is working in your interests.

    Sure. But the way the ALP rule works now produces an odd logic:

    If you want to join the ALP, you can. (Fine – makes sense)

    If there is no union to join, you don’t have to join a union in order to join the ALP. (Also fine – makes sense)

    If there is a union to join, you should join it. (Fine – also makes sense).

    But the result is there are two kinds of individual Labor members – members that are able to belong to just one outfit and members that must belong to two outfits. This outcome arises because membership of the ALP (which is a good thing in itself) is being used to encourage something else – membership of affiliated unions (also a good thing itself).

    It is self-convoluting. For a start, unionists seldom join the ALP as individuals. But their opposite – anti-unionists – are also hardly likely to seek to join the ALP.

    It is a well-intended rule with a weird outcome and as a result is not enforced. And if it is not enforced, it should be scrapped.

  • 1083
    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:37 am | Permalink

    Of all the dopey things about Abbott, being a Catholic Monarchist is surely the daftest.

    Somehow it makes perfect sense to him that our Head of State ought NEVER be someone of his own religious views.

  • 1084
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:41 am | Permalink

    1078
    bemused

    Free loading is contrary to the ethos of the party.

    Not if you’re Joe Bullock.

  • 1085
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    Mike Whitney.US writer on energy,saya the Ukrainian crisis if at its core,about the US oil/gas monopolies wanting to get their hands on the great Russian resources,which Putin has denied them

    He believes that the US monopolies and a complient Pres would risk a 3rd World War by pushing Russia to the brink..and they hate Putin because he has denied them access to the vast Russian resources
    an interesting statement

    If the US created a major war (which it now is quite capable of given that political power is with a very small hyper wealthy/powerful oligarchs)…..there is no longer a very good chance that the ‘white hats – ‘good guys’ would win. It would be China Russia and others against US and its allies. Everyone loses…except for the few who profit from both sides of these events.

  • 1086
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 1:10 am | Permalink

    According to reports in Russia’s RIA Novosti, Bank Rossiya, has introduced a new logo which is a gold ruble. Officials stated that the new logo, the golden badge of the Russian national currency will be officially adopted by Bank Rossiya. It will symbolize a sign of stability and security of the ruble gold reserves of the country.

    Ahhh .. a shot across the bow of the petrodollar…linking gold to fiat is anathema to the money printers extraordinaire….Russia like China has been buy huge amounts of gold over recent years.

  • 1087
    deblonay
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 2:04 am | Permalink

    RE Russia and China… after Tom Paine 1086
    __________
    Tom is right and we will see this when Putin goes to China next month and signs a Trillion dollar contract with the Chinese for Gas….supplied across “Pipelineistan ” which runs arcoss the Central Asian plains

    The Russian are demanding that the Ukrainian pays $2billion owing for their unpaid Gas bills..and may demand payment in advance in future
    The US-EU will have to find all this mo ney
    Putin doesn’t want to occupy a bankrupt Ukraine,one the edge of a food crisis,with a valueless currency and no credit facilities

  • 1088
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 3:24 am | Permalink

    bemused

    While I was at university I worked casually at a market research company that primarily (well, only) did work for government departments, charities and universities. We were the guys who’d call you to ask about your experiences on Centrelink, how your cancer treatment was going or what you thought of immigrants. It was great work, and good money for what it was (ie, calling people and getting them to answer our questionnaires).

    The reason the pay and conditions were pretty good was because my company (and most others) were members of the market and social research body AMSRO who negotiated with the National Union of Workers and its workplace delegates. There was and is a solid agreement in place that ensures pay rises, adequate breaks, long service leave (even for casuals) etc etc.

    Approximately 70% of the interviewers on staff (300 or so gross) were members of the NUW, who would pay something like 1.6% of their wage in dues. Maybe the equivalent of paying for two cups of coffee per fortnight in other words. Not an onerous burden by any means.

    But there was always that 30% who didn’t sign up – who got all the good stuff without paying a damn cent. As you put it, they were freeloaders.

    As a workplace delegate it was my job to convince these people to sign up if I could and a few of them caved after recognising the work that was being done on their behalf. Of the remainder, the main thing that struck me was an entirely selfish “what’s in it for me?” mentality. They weren’t interested in solidarity with their colleagues, and I was often asked about the ‘other’ benefits of membership – by which they meant things like discounts at the shops or movie tickets or whatever.

    For these people being a member if a union is viewed in the same way they look at joining a loyalty scheme at a supermarket or something – unless the benefit can be held in their hand as something tangible they’re not interested. The younger interviewers – those entirely new to the workforce – were particularly prone to this line of thinking.

    Unfortunately I think this mentality is on the rise. It’s very hard to fight against unless every union adopts the SDA model of inducements, discounts and trinkets at the price of being a front for the bosses.

    So yeah, I agree. If you work in an industry covered by a union, you really ought to join. It’s a moral imperitive really, particularly if you’re being paid under the auspices of a union-negotiated agreement. In that sense it’s not unfair for the Labor Party to require union membership of those in a position to do so.

  • 1089
    Otiose
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 3:42 am | Permalink

    → → #Auspol 10/04/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #abbott t’ Un(Aus) meets Un(DPRK) by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1kLrqma

  • 1090
    pom
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 6:04 am | Permalink

    I believe that when unions on behalf of their membership fight and win a wage rise only union members should get that rise.
    At the same time I do not think Labor does it’s self any good tied as it is to the union movement to me it’s a big negative. The sooner it stops the present union influence and has a broader membership appeal the soon its support will rise.

  • 1091
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 6:07 am | Permalink

    New thread.

  • 1092
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 6:16 am | Permalink

    I also agree that one should be a member of any bona fide union covering your occupation, and it’s not unreasonable for the ALP to ask this of its members.

    Of course, it asks it only of those in affiliated unions. … making it less than the reasonable principle bemused set out against freeloading.

    I don’t agree that the mere fact you can’t enforce the rule makes it worth dumping. One can encourage people to do things without any means of coercion. It seems to me that members of affiliated unions could get a weighted vote when votes arise for official positions or nominations, and this could be one way of underlining the significance if union membership.

  • 1093
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    I hope the are running a poll on whether Bob Carr upset the Jewish Lobby or the PB Cult of Gillard most with his dose of the bleeding obvious last evening.

  • 1094
    deblonay
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    Th Cultist of Gillard here on PB must be starting to doubt whether she can still work miracles or not….

  • 1095
    Compact Crank
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    The Joe Bullock factor certainly impacting on WA Senate Postals – oh . . .

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